Zagłębie Lubin vs Cracovia Kraków Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Zagłębia Lubin Sun, 3 May - 12:45 PM
Ekstraklasa
Zagłębie Lubin Zagłębie Lubin
0 – 0
Cracovia Kraków Cracovia Kraków
Full Time Sun, 3 May 12:45 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
Igor Orlikowski 26' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Zagłębie Lubin and Cracovia Kraków played out a goalless draw, with the final score at 0-0. The match was level at halftime, 0-0, before Zagłębie Lubin received a red card, reducing their possession to 33% compared to Cracovia's 67%. Despite being labeled the stronger team pre-match, Zagłębie Lubin's numerical disadvantage led to a defensive setup that frustrated Cracovia's attacks. Cracovia controlled the ball but lacked clinical finishing, resulting in no goals. This outcome showed a moderate 8.7% structural deviation attributed to Zagłębie Lubin, with efficiency in line with expectations. The red card introduced distortion, particularly in the second half, altering the game's structure from what might have been a more open contest. Market expectations aligned with the result despite the high pre-match draw improbability implied by pricing. Absent xG data limits deeper chance quality analysis, but possession disparity highlights Cracovia's dominance without conversion.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Zagłębie Lubin exhibited a moderate 8.7% structural deviation from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be determined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The draw outcome was aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations remain unevaluable without recorded metrics.
  • Event impact: Zagłębie Lubin's red card heavily impacted match control and flow.
  • Red card distortion: Red card caused second-half distortion favoring Cracovia's possession.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

T. Kwiatkowski

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Wójcik

1st Assistant

M. Majewski

2nd Assistant

P. Horożaniecki

4th Official

Zagłębie Lubin L. Ojrzynski
L. Ojrzynski
VS
Cracovia Kraków B. Grzelak
B. Grzelak
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.94
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nieciecza Rank: 51 L
Legia Warszawa Rank: 64 L
Radomiak Radom Rank: 59 W
Arka Gdynia Rank: 55 L
Motor Lublin Rank: 59 L
Lech Poznań Rank: 71 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 61 D
Raków Częstochowa Rank: 67 L
Arka Gdynia Rank: 56 D
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 68 L
Katowice Rank: 65 W
Wisła Płock Rank: 57 L
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 16 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Zagłębie Lubin
3.21%
Draw
91.31%
Away Cracovia Kraków
5.48%

Movement

Changes since opening
Zagłębie Lubin
-0.01%
Draw
+0.75%
Cracovia Kraków
-0.74%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
61.44
59.61
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Zagłębie Lubin
Cracovia Kraków
Power Score
61.44
59.61
League Position
6
13
Global Rank
435
494

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Zagłębie Lubin — Opponent-weighted form score
Cracovia Kraków — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Zagłębie Lubin Cracovia Kraków

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Zagłębie Lubin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Cracovia Kraków

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Zagłębie Lubin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cracovia Kraków
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
61.52
28.73
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.73
61.52
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Zagłębie Lubin +3.03 Efficiency Index
vs
Cracovia Kraków -3.03 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Zagłębie Lubin
Cracovia Kraków
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Zagłębie Lubin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cracovia Kraków
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Zagłębie Lubin Cracovia Kraków
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Zagłębie Lubin Cracovia Kraków
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Zagłębie Lubin
Cracovia Kraków
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Zagłębie Lubin
vs
Cracovia Kraków
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Zagłębie Lubin Cracovia Kraków
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Zagłębie Lubin 0.39
Cracovia Kraków 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Zagłębie Lubin Cracovia Kraków
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Zagłębie Lubin 0.00
Cracovia Kraków 0.00
Zagłębie Lubin
Cracovia Kraków
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Zagłębie Lubin had peak pressure around 43'.
  • Zagłębie Lubin started the game with stronger pressure.
Zagłębie Lubin Pressure Cracovia Kraków Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Zagłębie Lubin reached the top pressure at 43' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 39 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Zagłębie Lubin Zagłębie Lubin Home
39 matches
Cracovia Kraków Cracovia Kraków Away
Match Record
11
Wins
12
16
Draws
16
12
Losses
11
Goals
51
Goals Scored
49
49
Goals Conceded
51
+2
Goal Difference
-2

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:03:26+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-1-4-2
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
J. Burić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
1 J. Burić
I. Orlikowski
Poland
31 I. Orlikowski
M. Nalepa
Poland
25 M. Nalepa
D. Michalski
Poland
4 D. Michalski
D. Dąbrowski
Substitution
Poland
8 D. Dąbrowski
M. Grzybek
Poland
13 M. Grzybek
F. Kocaba
Poland
39 F. Kocaba
M. Dziewiatowski
Substitution
Poland
20 M. Dziewiatowski
J. Čorluka
Bosnia and Herzegovina
16 J. Čorluka
M. Reguła
Substitution
Poland
44 M. Reguła
M. Kosidis
Substitution
Greece
9 M. Kosidis
Pitch
S. Madejski
Poland
13 S. Madejski
M. Perković
Croatia
39 M. Perković
B. Traoré
Substitution
France
61 B. Traoré
G. Henriksson
Sweden
4 G. Henriksson
B. Šutalo
Croatia
21 B. Šutalo
M. Dominguez
Substitution
Switzerland
10 M. Dominguez
A. Al-Ammari
Substitution
Sweden
6 A. Al-Ammari
M. Klich
Poland
43 M. Klich
D. Piła
Poland
79 D. Piła
K. Zahiroleslam
Substitution
United States
18 K. Zahiroleslam
A. Hasić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
14 A. Hasić

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 12:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Zagłębia Lubin
Capacity :
16068
Attendance :
5545
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Tomasz Kwiatkowski
Arkadiusz Wójcik
Maciej Majewski
Paweł Horożaniecki

Statistics

Possession
Zagłębie Lubin
40%
Cracovia Kraków
60%

Top Statistics

0 Big Chances Created 1
8 Shots 8
46 Dangerous attacks 85
33 Possession 67
5 Corners 11
14 Free kicks 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

9 Dribble Attempts 7
15 Throwins 21
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
9 Goal Kicks 9
4 Substitutions 4
1 Hit Woodwork 1
4 Successful Dribbles 3
2 Injuries 0
69 Ball Safe 62
7 Goal Attempts 8

Attacking

77 Attacks 96
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

64 Successful Passes Percentage 86
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50
143 Successful Passes 379
62 Long Passes 34
26 Successful Long Passes 17
9 Key Passes 11
223 Passes 443

Defensive

8 Tackles 8
51 Duels Won 39
7 Interceptions 2
2 Saves 3

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 43
6 Accurate Crosses 12

Discipline

6 Fouls 14
0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Tomasz Kwiatkowski

Starting XI ▼

1
Jasmin Buric
Jasmin Buric Goalkeeper
7.02
4
Damian Michalski
Damian Michalski Defender
6.89
25
Michal Nalepa
Michal Nalepa Defender
7.12
31
Igor Orlikowski
Igor Orlikowski Defender
6.66
8
Damian Dabrowski
Damian Dabrowski Midfielder
7.04
—
Damian Dabrowski
90+1'
13
Mateusz Grzybek
Mateusz Grzybek Midfielder
6.95
16
Josip Corluka
Josip Corluka Midfielder
6.81
20
Mateusz Dziewiatowski
Mateusz Dziewiatowski Midfielder
6.54
26
Jakub Kolan
Jakub Kolan
Midfielder31'
6.8
39
Filip Kocaba
Filip Kocaba Midfielder
6.67
9
Michalis Kosidis
Michalis Kosidis Attacker
6.73
17
Levente Szabó
Levente Szabó
Attacker70'
6.88
44
Marcel Regula
Marcel Regula Attacker
6.79
6
Tomasz Makowski
Tomasz Makowski
Midfielder70'
6.97
Referee : Tomasz Kwiatkowski

Starting XI ▼

13
Sebastian Madejski
Sebastian Madejski Goalkeeper
6.87
4
Gustav Henriksson
Gustav Henriksson Defender
6.75
21
Bosko Sutalo
Bosko Sutalo Defender
6.71
39
Mauro Perkovic
Mauro Perkovic Defender
6.98
61
Brahim Traoré
Brahim Traoré Defender
6.72
17
Martin Yankov
Martin Yankov
Midfielder46'
6.83
6
Amir Al-Ammari
Amir Al-Ammari Midfielder
6.84
70
Dijon Kameri
Dijon Kameri
Midfielder79'
6.68
10
Maxime Dominguez
Maxime Dominguez Midfielder
6.62
7
Mateusz Praszelik
Mateusz Praszelik
Midfielder58'
6.64
43
Mateusz Klich
Mateusz Klich Midfielder
6.96
79
Dominik Pila
Dominik Pila Midfielder
6.72
14
Ajdin Hasic
Ajdin Hasic Attacker
7.01
18
Kahveh Zahiroleslam
Kahveh Zahiroleslam Attacker
6.6
99
Gabriel Charpentier
Gabriel Charpentier
Attacker85'
6.86

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Mihael Mlinaric
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Mihael Mlinaric → Damian Dabrowski
8th Substitution
90+1'
85'
Event
Gabriel Charpentier → Kahveh Zahiroleslam
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Dijon Kameri → Amir Al-Ammari
6th Substitution
Event
Tomasz Makowski → Marcel Regula
4th Substitution
70'
Event
Levente Szabó → Michalis Kosidis
5th Substitution
70'
58'
Event
Mateusz Praszelik → Maxime Dominguez
3rd Substitution
56'
Event
Amir Al-Ammari
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Martin Yankov → Brahim Traoré
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Jakub Kolan → Mateusz Dziewiatowski
1st Substitution
31'
Event
Igor Orlikowski
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
26'
Event
Marcel Regula
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
16'
9'
Event
Brahim Traoré
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Mihael Mlinaric comes on for Damian Dabrowski.
90
Attempt Attempt
Dijon Kameri takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
88
Attempt Attempt
Mauro Perkovic's header is saved.
85
Update Update
Gabriel Charpentier is on, and Kahveh Zahiroleslam is off.
79
Substitution Substitution
Dijon Kameri is substituted for Amir Al Ammari.
78
Attempt Attempt
Levente Szabo takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
74
Attempt Attempt
Ajdin Hasic's left-footed shot is blocked.
70
Attempt Attempt
Tomasz Makowski takes a right-footed shot but misses.
70
Update Update
Tomasz Makowski comes on for Marcel Regula.
70
Update Update
Levente Szabo comes on for Michalis Kosidis.
66
Attempt Attempt
Mateusz Klich takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
66
Attempt Attempt
Mateusz Klich takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
65
Attempt Attempt
Mateusz Praszelik takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
59
Attempt Attempt
Marcel Regula's right-footed shot is blocked.
58
Update Update
Mateusz Praszelik comes on for Maxime Dominguez.
57
Attempt Attempt
Michalis Kosidis takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
56
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Amir Al Ammari receives a yellow card.
56
Attempt Attempt
Ajdin Hasic's left-footed shot is blocked.
53
Attempt Attempt
Ajdin Hasic's left-footed shot is blocked.
50
Attempt Attempt
Bosko Sutalo attempts a header but misses the shot.
49
Attempt Attempt
Maxime Dominguez takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
46
Attempt Attempt
Jakub Kolan takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
46
Update Update
Martin Minchev replaces Brahim Traore.
45
Attempt Attempt
Damian Michalski's right-footed shot is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Amir Al Ammari's left-footed shot is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Mateusz Grzybek's header is saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Damian Michalski takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
42
Attempt Attempt
Michal Nalepa takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
42
Attempt Attempt
Michal Nalepa takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
41
Attempt Attempt
Damian Michalski takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
40
Attempt Attempt
Mateusz Grzybek's right-footed shot is blocked.
40
Attempt Attempt
Marcel Regula takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
39
Attempt Attempt
Mateusz Grzybek takes a right-footed shot but misses.
37
Attempt Attempt
Marcel Regula's right-footed shot is blocked.
31
Update Update
Jakub Kolan comes on for Mateusz Dziewiatowski.
31
Attempt Attempt
Damian Dabrowski takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
28
Attempt Attempt
Amir Al Ammari takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
19
Attempt Attempt
Bosko Sutalo takes a left-footed shot but misses.
15
Attempt Attempt
Kahveh Zahiroleslam's header is saved.
11
Attempt Attempt
Marcel Regula takes a right-footed shot but misses.
9
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Brahim Traore receives a yellow card.
6
Attempt Attempt
Mateusz Klich takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
2
Attempt Attempt
Mateusz Grzybek takes a right-footed shot but misses.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Tomasz Kwiatkowski.

CONCLUSION

The 0-0 draw between Zagłębie Lubin and Cracovia Kraków underscored resilience under pressure, as the home side managed a point despite a red card and 33% possession. Cracovia's 67% ball control failed to yield goals, pointing to inefficiency in chance creation or finishing. Pre-match data identified Zagłębie as stronger, yet the result reflected moderate deviation and market alignment. The red card's distortion shifted dynamics post-halftime, preventing a potential away victory. Without xG, full performance nuance is obscured, but the stalemate highlights defensive solidity over attacking prowess. This outcome maintains parity in the standings, with implications for future fixtures demanding better conversion from the dominant side.

Zagłębie Lubin vs Cracovia Kraków preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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