WSG Tirol vs Ried Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Tivoli Stadion Tirol Sat, 25 Apr - 3:00 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
WSG Tirol WSG
1 Winner 0
Ried Ried
Full Time Sat, 25 Apr 3:00 PM
Round 7 Relegation Round
Peter Kiedl - 55' (Own Goal)
Goal
|

CONTEXT

WSG Tirol claimed a narrow 1-0 win against Ried, overcoming perceptions of Ried as the stronger team. The match was goalless at halftime with the score at 0-0, reflecting a balanced first period where Ried held 53% possession compared to Tirol's 47%. Tirol's solitary goal arrived in the second half, securing the victory despite the visitors' territorial advantage. No red cards were issued, ensuring uninterrupted play without disciplinary distortions. The outcome displayed minimal structural deviation of 4.8% in favor of WSG Tirol, maintaining alignment with pre-match market assessments. Efficiency metrics stayed in line with expectations, though xG data was unavailable for deeper chance quality analysis. Possession dynamics highlighted Ried's control, yet Tirol's defensive solidity and clinical finishing proved decisive. This result underscores Tirol's ability to grind out points against favored opponents in a low-scoring affair.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match exhibited minimal structural deviation of 4.8% favoring WSG Tirol.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Result fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable from missing metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events influenced the outcome.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards produced no distortion in match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Semler

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

P. Duschek

1st Assistant

E. Kudic

2nd Assistant

S. Bosnjak

4th Official

WSG Tirol P. Semlic
P. Semlic
VS
Ried M. Senft
M. Senft
1.42
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.39
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rheindorf Altach Rank: D
Rheindorf Altach Rank: D
Blau-Weiß Linz Rank: L
Wolfsberger AC Rank: W
Grazer AK Rank: L
Ried Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Grazer AK Rank: W
Grazer AK Rank: D
Wolfsberger AC Rank: D
Rheindorf Altach Rank: W
Blau-Weiß Linz Rank: L
WSG Tirol Rank: W
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 3 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home WSG Tirol
95.23%
Draw
4.58%
Away Ried
0.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
18.8
26.56
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
WSG Tirol
Ried
Power Score
18.8
26.56
League Position
7
9
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
WSG Tirol — Opponent-weighted form score
Ried — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) WSG Tirol Ried

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

WSG Tirol

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Ried

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

WSG Tirol ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ried
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
36.91
14.53
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
14.53
36.91
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
WSG Tirol +1.87 Efficiency Index
vs
Ried -1.87 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
WSG Tirol
Ried
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

WSG Tirol ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ried
Created Set-piece attacking threat
WSG Tirol Ried
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
WSG Tirol Ried
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
WSG Tirol
Ried
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
WSG Tirol
vs
Ried
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
WSG Tirol Ried
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
WSG Tirol 0.59
Ried 0.50
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
WSG Tirol Ried
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
WSG Tirol 0.00
Ried 0.04
WSG Tirol
Ried
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • WSG had peak pressure around 55'.
  • Ried started the game with stronger pressure.
WSG Pressure Ried Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: WSG reached the top pressure at 55' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

WSG Tirol WSG Home
13 matches
Ried Ried Away
Match Record
5
Wins
5
3
Draws
3
5
Losses
5
Goals
22
Goals Scored
21
21
Goals Conceded
22
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0.78
xG
3.10
3.10
xGA
0.78

Data last updated: 2026-04-26T00:05:49+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
A. Stejskal
Czech Republic
40 A. Stejskal
M. Boras
Croatia
23 M. Boras
J. Lawrence
Germany
5 J. Lawrence
D. Gugganig
Austria
3 D. Gugganig
L. Sulzbacher
Substitution
Austria
6 L. Sulzbacher
M. Taferner
Austria
30 M. Taferner
V. Müller
Austria
4 V. Müller
B. Böckle
Austria
20 B. Böckle
M. Wels
Austria
37 M. Wels
L. Hinterseer
Substitution
Austria
16 L. Hinterseer
N. Frederiksen
Substitution
Denmark
8 N. Frederiksen
Pitch
A. Leitner
Austria
1 A. Leitner
O. Steurer
Germany
30 O. Steurer
M. Sollbauer
Austria
23 M. Sollbauer
N. Havenaar
Japan
5 N. Havenaar
A. Van Wyk
Substitution
South Africa
29 A. Van Wyk
N. Bajlicz
Substitution
Austria
28 N. Bajlicz
M. Maart
Substitution
South Africa
6 M. Maart
P. Pomer
Austria
17 P. Pomer
E. Eghosa
Substitution
Austria
47 E. Eghosa
J. Boguo
Substitution
15 J. Boguo
K. Mutandwa
Zambia
7 K. Mutandwa

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 25, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 7 · Relegation Round
Stadium :
Tivoli Stadion Tirol
Capacity :
16008
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Jakob Semler
Philipp Duschek
Edin Kudic
Stjepan Bosnjak

Statistics

Possession
WSG
49%
Ried
51%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 3
3 Shots 2
27 Dangerous attacks 14
47 Possession 53
6 Corners 3
16 Free kicks 20
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

73 Ball Safe 88
2 Injuries 2
6 Goal Kicks 13
24 Throwins 18
21 Dribble Attempts 11
52 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
11 Successful Dribbles 4
4 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0
9 Goal Attempts 7

Attacking

44 Attacks 52
1 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

68 Successful Passes Percentage 70
262 Passes 305
25 Successful Long Passes 23
49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37
9 Key Passes 4
177 Successful Passes 215
51 Long Passes 62

Defensive

5 Interceptions 5
60 Duels Won 74
13 Tackles 18
2 Saves 2

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 8
4 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

20 Fouls 16
3 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Jakob Semler

Starting XI ▼

40
Adam Stejskal
Adam Stejskal Goalkeeper
6.63
3
David Gugganig
David Gugganig Defender
6.57
5
Jamie Lawrence
Jamie Lawrence Defender
7.02
23
Marco Boras
Marco Boras Defender
6.94
4
Valentino Müller
Valentino Müller Midfielder
7.09
6
Lukas Sulzbacher
Lukas Sulzbacher Midfielder
6.65
17
Johannes Naschberger
Johannes Naschberger
Midfielder79'
6.68
20
Benjamin Böckle
Benjamin Böckle Midfielder
6.76
30
Matthäus Taferner
Matthäus Taferner Midfielder
7.14
8
N. Frederiksen
N. Frederiksen Attacker
7.22
19
Christian Huetz
Christian Huetz
Attacker80'
6.42
16
Lukas Hinterseer
Lukas Hinterseer Attacker
6.52
9
Ademola Ola-Adebomi
Ademola Ola-Adebomi
Attacker46'
6.57
37
Moritz Wels
Moritz Wels Attacker
6.7
Referee : Jakob Semler

Starting XI ▼

1
Andreas Leitner
Andreas Leitner Goalkeeper
6.86
5
Benjamin Garcia
Benjamin Garcia Defender
7
23
Michael Sollbauer
Michael Sollbauer Defender
6.75
30
Oliver Steurer
Oliver Steurer Defender
6.84
6
Yusuf Maart
Yusuf Maart Midfielder
7
8
Martin Rasner
Martin Rasner
Midfielder56'
6.5
17
Philipp Pomer
Philipp Pomer Midfielder
6.95
28
Nicolas Bajlicz
Nicolas Bajlicz Midfielder
6.82
26
Jonas Mayer
Jonas Mayer
Midfielder56'
6.65
29
Antonio Van Wyk
Antonio Van Wyk Midfielder
6.87
9
Saliou Sané
Saliou Sané
Attacker64'
6.43
7
Kingstone Mutandwa
Kingstone Mutandwa Attacker
7
15
Joris Boguo
Joris Boguo Attacker
6.51
19
Yussef Nasrawe
Yussef Nasrawe
Midfielder46'
6.61
47
Evan Eghosa
Evan Eghosa Attacker
6.42
13
Peter Kiedl
Peter Kiedl
Attacker11'
6.64

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
David Kubatta → Ademola Ola-Adebomi
9th Substitution
90+3'
Event
Christian Huetz → N. Frederiksen
8th Substitution
80'
Event
Johannes Naschberger → Lukas Sulzbacher
7th Substitution
79'
64'
Event
Saliou Sané → Antonio Van Wyk
6th Substitution
Event
Ademola Ola-Adebomi
Off the ball foul / 3rd Yellowcard
58'
56'
Event
Jonas Mayer → Nicolas Bajlicz
4th Substitution
56'
Event
Martin Rasner → Yusuf Maart
5th Substitution
Event
Peter Kiedl
Left foot shot / 1st Own Goal
55'
Event
Ademola Ola-Adebomi → Lukas Hinterseer
2nd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Yussef Nasrawe → Joris Boguo
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Marco Boras
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
28'
27'
Event
Joris Boguo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
11'
Event
Peter Kiedl → Evan Eghosa
1st Substitution

CONCLUSION

WSG Tirol's 1-0 triumph over Ried exemplifies effective game management, converting limited possession into a clean-sheet victory. Despite Ried's edge in territory and status as the stronger side, Tirol's second-half strike sealed minimal deviation from expected structures. Market alignment held firm, with efficiency steady and no disruptive events like reds altering proceedings. Absence of xG data limits chance evaluation, but the scoreline reflects Tirol's resilience. This outcome bolsters Tirol's standing, highlighting defensive discipline over dominance in a tactical encounter.

WSG Tirol vs Ried preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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