Wrexham vs Stoke City Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Racecourse Ground Sat, 18 Apr - 2:00 PM
Championship
Wrexham WXH
2 Winner 0
Stoke City STK
Full Time Sat, 18 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 43 Regular Season
Josh Windass - 33'
George Thomason - 31'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Wrexham delivered a commanding 2-0 home win against Stoke City, scoring both goals in the first half to lead at halftime. The hosts held 53% possession to Stoke's 47%, controlling the game without facing major threats. Identified as the stronger team, Wrexham's performance produced a significant 45.3% structural deviation in their favor. This outcome aligned with pre-match market probabilities, where Wrexham held a 54.7% chance of victory, draw at 24.9%, and Stoke at 20.5%. Efficiency remained in line with expectations, and no red cards or second-half adjustments altered the flow. Stoke failed to respond effectively, securing Wrexham a clean-sheet triumph.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Wrexham's 2-0 win featured a significant 45.3% structural deviation.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Result aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable from data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or knockout tie affected the match.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, causing zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Herczeg

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. James

1st Assistant

S. Lewis

2nd Assistant

L. Doughty

4th Official

Wrexham P. Parkinson
P. Parkinson
VS
Stoke City M. Robins
M. Robins
1.64
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.21
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Birmingham City Rank: L
Southampton Rank: L
West Bromwich Albion Rank: D
Sheffield United Rank: W
Watford Rank: L
Swansea City Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Blackburn Rovers Rank: D
Derby County Rank: L
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: W
Preston North End Rank: L
Watford Rank: W
Ipswich Town Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Wrexham
54.66%
Draw
24.86%
Away Stoke City
20.48%

Movement

Changes since opening
Wrexham
-43.23%
Draw
+22.94%
Stoke City
+20.28%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
25.39
19.23
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Wrexham
Stoke City
Power Score
25.39
19.23
League Position
7
17
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Wrexham — Opponent-weighted form score
Stoke City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Wrexham Stoke City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Wrexham

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Stoke City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Wrexham ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Stoke City
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
20.00
17.87
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.87
20.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Wrexham +0.22 Efficiency Index
vs
Stoke City -0.22 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Wrexham
Stoke City
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Wrexham ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Stoke City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Wrexham Stoke City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Wrexham Stoke City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Wrexham
Stoke City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Wrexham
vs
Stoke City
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Wrexham Stoke City
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Wrexham 0.28
Stoke City 0.13
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Wrexham Stoke City
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Wrexham 0.00
Stoke City 0.06
Wrexham
Stoke City
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • WXH had peak pressure around 33'.
  • STK started the game with stronger pressure.
WXH Pressure STK Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: WXH reached the top pressure at 33' (70.02).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Wrexham WXH Home
2 matches
Stoke City STK Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
1
-3
Goal Difference
+3

Data last updated: 2026-04-19T00:04:55+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Ward
Wales
21 D. Ward
I. Kabore
Burkina Faso
12 I. Kabore
D. Hyam
Scotland
5 D. Hyam
D. Scarr
England
24 D. Scarr
C. Doyle
England
2 C. Doyle
G. Thomason
England
14 G. Thomason
G. Dobson
England
15 G. Dobson
M. James
England
37 M. James
O. Rathbone
Substitution
England
20 O. Rathbone
S. Smith
Substitution
England
28 S. Smith
J. Windass
Substitution
England
10 J. Windass
Pitch
G. Bazunu
Republic of Ireland
31 G. Bazunu
E. Bocat
France
17 E. Bocat
A. Cresswell
Substitution
England
3 A. Cresswell
M. Bosun Lawal
Substitution
Nigeria
18 M. Bosun Lawal
S. Thomas
Wales
7 S. Thomas
L. Baker
Substitution
England
8 L. Baker
B. Pearson
England
4 B. Pearson
L. Cisse
France
29 L. Cisse
J. Bae
South Korea
10 J. Bae
M. Manhoef
Netherlands
42 M. Manhoef
S. Gallagher
Substitution
England
20 S. Gallagher

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 18, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 43 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Racecourse Ground
Capacity :
10771
Attendance :
10633
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Adam Herczeg
Alex James
Samuel Lewis
Leigh Doughty

Statistics

Possession
WXH
53%
STK
47%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 0
5 Shots 1
32 Dangerous attacks 48
53 Possession 47
2 Corners 6
8 Free kicks 8
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

9 Dribble Attempts 17
13 Goal Kicks 10
10 Successful Headers 11
22 Successful Dribbles Percentage 35
2 Successful Dribbles 6
16 Throwins 27
109 Ball Safe 99
7 Goal Attempts 5
3 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 2
1 Hit Woodwork 2

Attacking

91 Attacks 82
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

447 Passes 376
30 Successful Long Passes 18
82 Successful Passes Percentage 77
3 Key Passes 5
367 Successful Passes 291
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35
70 Long Passes 52

Defensive

0 Saves 1
36 Duels Won 34
18 Tackles 10
4 Interceptions 8

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 20
0 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

8 Fouls 8
5 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Adam Herczeg

Starting XI ▼

21
Danny Ward
Danny Ward Goalkeeper
7.08
2
Callum Doyle
Callum Doyle Defender
6.79
5
Dominic Hyam
Dominic Hyam Defender
6.85
12
Issa Kaboré
Issa Kaboré Defender
6.82
14
George Thomason
George Thomason Defender
6.9
24
Dan Scarr
Dan Scarr Defender
6.77
15
George Dobson
George Dobson Midfielder
6.92
20
Ollie Rathbone
Ollie Rathbone Midfielder
6.86
27
Lewis O'Brien
Lewis O'Brien
Midfielder73'
7
37
Matty James
Matty James Midfielder
6.83
10
Josh Windass
Josh Windass Attacker
6.99
33
Nathan Broadhead
Nathan Broadhead
Attacker78'
6.91
28
Sam Smith
Sam Smith Attacker
6.68
19
Kieffer Moore
Kieffer Moore
Attacker79'
7.02
Referee : Adam Herczeg

Starting XI ▼

31
Gavin Bazunu
Gavin Bazunu Goalkeeper
6.58
3
Aaron Cresswell
Aaron Cresswell Defender
6.94
21
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi
Attacker46'
6.79
7
Sorba Thomas
Sorba Thomas Defender
6.99
17
Eric-Junior Bocat
Eric-Junior Bocat Defender
6.7
18
Bosun Lawal
Bosun Lawal Defender
6.91
54
Raphael Otegbayo
Raphael Otegbayo
Midfielder86'
6.53
4
Ben Pearson
Ben Pearson Midfielder
6.59
8
Lewis Baker
Lewis Baker Midfielder
6.97
12
Tatsuki Seko
Tatsuki Seko
Midfielder68'
6.68
10
Jun-ho Bae
Jun-ho Bae Midfielder
6.76
29
Lamine Cissé
Lamine Cissé Midfielder
6.78
42
Million Manhoef
Million Manhoef Midfielder
6.77
20
Sam Gallagher
Sam Gallagher Attacker
6.81
11
Róbert Boženík
Róbert Boženík
Attacker52'
6.63

Events

2ND-HALF
86'
Event
Raphael Otegbayo → Bosun Lawal
7th Substitution
Event
Kieffer Moore → Sam Smith
6th Substitution
79'
Event
Nathan Broadhead → Josh Windass
5th Substitution
78'
Event
Lewis O'Brien → Ollie Rathbone
4th Substitution
73'
68'
Event
Tatsuki Seko → Lewis Baker
3rd Substitution
52'
Event
Róbert Boženík → Sam Gallagher
2nd Substitution
47'
Event
Million Manhoef
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
46'
Event
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi → Aaron Cresswell
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Josh Windass
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
33'
Event
George Thomason
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
31'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Lamine Cissé from Stoke City won a free kick on the right wing.
90
Attempt Attempt
Nathan Broadhead's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Callum Doyle provided the assist.
90
Attempt Attempt
Lamine Cissé from Stoke City hits the woodwork with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Wrexham leading 2-0 against Stoke City.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Million Manhoef from Stoke City takes a right-footed shot from a difficult position on the right, but it goes wide. Assist by Tatsuki Seko.
90
Attempt Attempt
Nathan Broadhead's shot from outside the box is blocked. Callum Doyle provided the assist.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Callum Doyle for Wrexham.
87
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Ben Pearson from Stoke City.
86
Attempt Attempt
Matty James from Wrexham has his right-footed shot from outside the box blocked.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Stoke City: Raphael-Pijus Otegbayo replaces Bosun Lawal due to injury.
84
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Bosun Lawal from Stoke City.
82
Update Update
Kieffer Moore of Wrexham is caught offside.
79
Corner Corner
Stoke City wins a corner after Danny Ward concedes.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wrexham: Kieffer Moore replaces Sam Smith due to injury.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wrexham: Nathan Broadhead replaces Josh Windass.
78
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Sam Smith from Wrexham.
77
Corner Corner
Stoke City win a corner after Dominic Hyam concedes.
74
Update Update
Fouled by Róbert Bozeník of Stoke City.
74
Update Update
Dan Scarr of Wrexham won a free kick in defense.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wrexham: Lewis O'Brien replaces Oliver Rathbone.
72
Update Update
Foul committed by George Thomason of Wrexham.
72
Update Update
Róbert Bozeník from Stoke City won a free kick in defense.
69
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity for Wrexham as Sam Smith heads the ball from close range but it goes over the bar. The assist was provided by Josh Windass.
69
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Sam Smith from Wrexham heads the ball from a few meters out, but it goes over the bar. Assist by Josh Windass.
68
Update Update
Lamine Cissé from Stoke City won a free kick in defense.
68
Update Update
Dominic Hyam fouls a Wrexham player.
68
Substitution Substitution
Stoke City makes a substitution: Tatsuki Seko replaces Lewis Baker.
66
Corner Corner
Wrexham win a corner after Ben Pearson concedes.
63
Corner Corner
Wrexham wins a corner after Eric-Junior Bocat concedes.
57
Update Update
Foul committed by George Dobson for Wrexham.
57
Update Update
Róbert Bozeník from Stoke City commits a handball.
57
Update Update
Lamine Cissé from Stoke City won a free kick in an attacking position.
53
Update Update
Foul committed by Ben Pearson of Stoke City.
53
Update Update
Oliver Rathbone from Wrexham won a free kick in defense.
52
Attempt Attempt
Bae Jun-Ho's shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Lamine Cissé.
52
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Stoke City: Róbert Bozeník replaces Sam Gallagher.
52
Corner Corner
Stoke City wins a corner after Dan Scarr concedes.
47
Update Update
Foul committed by Million Manhoef of Stoke City.
47
Update Update
Oliver Rathbone from Wrexham won a free kick on the left wing.
47
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Million Manhoef of Stoke City receives a yellow card for a foul.
45
Update Update
The second half starts with Wrexham leading 2-0 against Stoke City.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with Wrexham leading Stoke City 2-0.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Wrexham leading 2-0 against Stoke City.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
44
Corner Corner
Stoke City win a corner after Matty James concedes.
43
Update Update
Foul committed by Sam Smith of Wrexham.
43
Update Update
Ben Pearson from Stoke City won a free kick in defense.
41
Update Update
Lewis Baker commits a handball for Stoke City.
39
Update Update
Ben Pearson from Stoke City won a free kick in defense.
39
Update Update
Foul committed by Oliver Rathbone of Wrexham.
36
Update Update
Foul committed by Million Manhoef of Stoke City.
36
Attempt Attempt
Bae Jun-Ho's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Sam Gallagher provided the assist with a header.
36
Update Update
George Thomason from Wrexham won a free kick in defense.
33
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Wrexham lead 2-0 as Josh Windass scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the left corner.
31
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Wrexham lead 1-0 after George Thomason scores with a left-footed shot from a difficult position and long distance on the right into the top left corner following a corner kick.
30
Attempt Attempt
Oliver Rathbone's shot for Wrexham from the center of the box is blocked.
30
Corner Corner
Wrexham win a corner after Ben Pearson concedes.
29
Update Update
Issa Kaboré from Wrexham won a free kick on the right wing.
29
Update Update
Lamine Cissé commits a foul for Stoke City.
28
Update Update
Stoke City is called offside. Sam Gallagher is in an offside position.
24
Update Update
Aaron Cresswell from Stoke City won a free kick in defense.
24
Update Update
Foul committed by Sam Smith of Wrexham.
23
Update Update
Offside called against Wrexham. Sam Smith is offside.
20
Update Update
Offside called against Wrexham. Josh Windass is offside.
18
Corner Corner
Stoke City wins a corner after Oliver Rathbone concedes.
17
Corner Corner
Stoke City wins a corner after George Thomason concedes.
15
Update Update
Offside called against Wrexham. Oliver Rathbone is offside.
13
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. George Thomason from Wrexham takes a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the left corner by Gavin Bazunu from Stoke City.
11
Update Update
Foul by Aaron Cresswell against Stoke City.
11
Update Update
Sam Smith from Wrexham won a free kick on the right wing.
10
Update Update
Bae Jun-Ho of Stoke City won a free kick in an attacking position.
10
Update Update
Foul committed by Oliver Rathbone of Wrexham.
10
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Lamine Cissé from Stoke City shoots with his left foot from the left side of the box, but it goes just wide of the top right corner.
7
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Lamine Cissé of Stoke City took a right-footed shot from a difficult position and long distance on the left.
6
Update Update
Offside called against Wrexham. Sam Smith is offside.

CONCLUSION

Wrexham's 2-0 victory over Stoke City underscored their dominance, with an early lead and superior possession sealing the deal. The significant structural deviation of 45.3% favored the hosts, matching pre-match expectations without xG data to contradict. Efficiency held steady, and the absence of red cards or events ensured a straightforward contest. Stoke's 47% possession yielded no goals, highlighting their struggles. This result strengthens Wrexham's position as the stronger side, providing a solid foundation for future matches.

Wrexham vs Stoke City preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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