Wrexham vs Southampton Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Racecourse Ground Tue, 7 Apr - 7:00 PM
Championship
Wrexham WXH
1 Winner 5
Southampton SOU
Full Time Tue, 7 Apr 7:00 PM
Round 41 Regular Season
Josh Windass - 34'
Goal
|
Goal
Finn Azaz - 83'
Ross Stewart - 81'
Cyle Larin - 61'
Flynn Downes - 22'
Kuryu Matsuki - 12'

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished, with Southampton securing a resounding 5-1 away victory over Wrexham. The visitors established their lead early, heading into halftime with a narrow 2-1 advantage before fully pulling away in the second half. Interestingly, despite the lopsided scoreline, Wrexham held the majority of the ball with 54% possession, leaving Southampton with 46%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable to further analyze chance creation for this fixture. This result failed to align with pre-match market expectations. Wrexham actually entered the contest as narrow favorites with a 36.7% implied win probability. Southampton sat closely behind at 34.6%, while a draw was evaluated at 28.7%. Consequently, Southampton's heavy triumph represents a significant deviation from the betting forecasts, registering a 65.4% deviation. The match concluded cleanly without any red cards to disrupt the tactical flow for either side. Furthermore, the overall efficiency shift was deemed to be in line with the match dynamics. Without xG figures to formally assess the underlying performance, the defining narrative remains Southampton's clinical edge in a completely market-defying victory.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Southampton showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

G. Ward

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

F. Hallam

4th Official

H. Gilroy

1st Assistant

A. Dallison

2nd Assistant

Wrexham P. Parkinson
P. Parkinson
VS
Southampton Tonda Eckert
Tonda Eckert
1.74
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.73
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
West Bromwich Albion Rank: 66 D
Sheffield United Rank: 71 W
Watford Rank: 66 L
Swansea City Rank: 68 W
Hull City Rank: 71 L
Charlton Athletic Rank: 67 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Oxford United Rank: 65 W
Norwich City Rank: 71 W
Coventry City Rank: 77 W
West Bromwich Albion Rank: 66 D
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: 53 W
Queens Park Rangers Rank: 67 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Wrexham
36.7%
Draw
28.7%
Away Southampton
34.6%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65.75
68.6
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Wrexham
Southampton
Power Score
65.75
68.6
League Position
7
6
Global Rank
134
80

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Wrexham — Opponent-weighted form score
Southampton — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Wrexham Southampton

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Wrexham

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Southampton

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Wrexham ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Southampton
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.89
38.37
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
38.37
23.89
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Wrexham -1.48 Efficiency Index
vs
Southampton +1.48 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Wrexham
Southampton
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Wrexham ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Southampton
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Wrexham Southampton
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Wrexham Southampton
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Wrexham
Southampton
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Wrexham
vs
Southampton
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Wrexham Southampton
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Wrexham 0.29
Southampton 0.48
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Wrexham Southampton
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Wrexham 0.15
Southampton 0.03
Wrexham
Southampton
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Wrexham WXH Home
1 matches
Southampton SOU Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
1
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-04-08T00:02:23+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Okonkwo
England
1 A. Okonkwo
M. Cleworth
Wales
4 M. Cleworth
D. Hyam
Scotland
5 D. Hyam
C. Doyle
England
2 C. Doyle
I. Kabore
Substitution
Burkina Faso
12 I. Kabore
G. Dobson
Substitution
England
15 G. Dobson
L. O'Brien
England
27 L. O'Brien
N. Broadhead
Substitution
Wales
33 N. Broadhead
G. Thomason
England
14 G. Thomason
J. Windass
Substitution
England
10 J. Windass
K. Moore
Substitution
Wales
19 K. Moore
Pitch
D. Peretz
Israel
41 D. Peretz
R. Manning
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
3 R. Manning
J. Stephens
England
5 J. Stephens
T. Harwood-Bellis
England
6 T. Harwood-Bellis
J. Bree
England
14 J. Bree
S. Charles
England
24 S. Charles
F. Downes
England
4 F. Downes
S. Edozie
Substitution
England
23 S. Edozie
F. Azaz
Substitution
England
10 F. Azaz
K. Matsuki
Substitution
Japan
27 K. Matsuki
C. Larin
Substitution
Canada
9 C. Larin

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 07, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 41 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Racecourse Ground
Capacity :
10771
Attendance :
10547
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ , Clear
Referees :
Gavin Ward
Farai Hallam
Hugh Gilroy
Andrew Dallison

Statistics

Possession
WXH
52%
SOU
48%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 5
1 Big Chances Created 5
9 Shots 11
38 Dangerous attacks 33
54 Possession 46
3 Corners 4
10 Free kicks 12
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

20 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
8 Goal Kicks 6
10 Dribble Attempts 4
19 Throwins 18
2 Hit Woodwork 3
2 Successful Dribbles 2
1 Assists 3
76 Ball Safe 78
1 Injuries 0
6 Goal Attempts 13
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

89 Attacks 102
1 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
388 Successful Passes 298
460 Passes 383
51 Long Passes 59
84 Successful Passes Percentage 78
8 Key Passes 10
20 Successful Long Passes 28

Defensive

12 Tackles 13
39 Duels Won 34
13 Interceptions 14
4 Saves 1

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 18
2 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

12 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Gavin Ward

Starting XI ▼

1
Arthur Okonkwo
Arthur Okonkwo Goalkeeper
2
Callum Doyle
Callum Doyle Defender
4
Max Cleworth
Max Cleworth Defender
5
Dominic Hyam
Dominic Hyam Defender
12
Issa Kaboré
Issa Kaboré Midfielder
47
Ryan Longman
Ryan Longman
Midfielder73'
14
George Thomason
George Thomason Midfielder
15
George Dobson
George Dobson Midfielder
37
Matty James
Matty James
Midfielder72'
27
Lewis O'Brien
Lewis O'Brien Midfielder
33
Nathan Broadhead
Nathan Broadhead Midfielder
20
Ollie Rathbone
Ollie Rathbone
Midfielder72'
10
Josh Windass
Josh Windass Attacker
28
Sam Smith
Sam Smith
Attacker84'
19
Kieffer Moore
Kieffer Moore Attacker
7
D. Keillor-Dunn
D. Keillor-Dunn
Midfielder84'
Referee : Gavin Ward

Starting XI ▼

41
Daniel Peretz
Daniel Peretz Goalkeeper
3
Ryan Manning
Ryan Manning Defender
34
Welington
Welington
Defender65'
5
Jack Stephens
Jack Stephens Defender
6
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
Taylor Harwood-Bellis Defender
14
James Bree
James Bree Defender
4
Flynn Downes
Flynn Downes Midfielder
10
Finn Azaz
Finn Azaz Midfielder
19
Cameron Archer
Cameron Archer
Attacker85'
23
Samuel Edozie
Samuel Edozie Midfielder
13
Leo Scienza
Leo Scienza
Midfielder58'
24
Shea Emmanuel Charles
Shea Emmanuel Charles Midfielder
27
Kuryu Matsuki
Kuryu Matsuki Midfielder
15
Nathan Wood
Nathan Wood
Defender85'
9
Cyle Larin
Cyle Larin Attacker
11
Ross Stewart
Ross Stewart
Attacker66'

Events

2ND-HALF
85'
Event
Cameron Archer → Finn Azaz
9th Substitution
85'
Event
Nathan Wood → Kuryu Matsuki
10th Substitution
Event
D. Keillor-Dunn → Kieffer Moore
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Sam Smith → Josh Windass
8th Substitution
84'
83'
Event
Finn Azaz
Right foot shot / 6th Goal
Event
Ryan Longman
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
81'
81'
Event
Ross Stewart
Header / 5th Goal
79'
Event
Finn Azaz
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Ryan Longman → Issa Kaboré
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Matty James → George Dobson
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Ollie Rathbone → Nathan Broadhead
5th Substitution
72'
72'
Event
Welington
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
66'
Event
Ross Stewart → Cyle Larin
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Jack Stephens
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
65'
Event
Welington → Ryan Manning
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Cyle Larin
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
58'
Event
Leo Scienza → Samuel Edozie
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Callum Doyle
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
37'
Event
Josh Windass
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
34'
22'
Event
Flynn Downes
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
12'
Event
Kuryu Matsuki
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Léo Scienza from Southampton attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it's saved in the right corner by Arthur Okonkwo from Wrexham. The assist was provided by Cameron Archer.
90
Corner Corner
Southampton wins a corner after a concession by Arthur Okonkwo.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Taylor Harwood-Bellis from Southampton takes a right-footed shot from over 35 yards, but it goes high and wide to the right. Assist by Flynn Downes.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Wrexham losing 1-5 to Southampton.
90
Update Update
Davis Keillor-Dunn commits a handball for Wrexham.
90
Corner Corner
Wrexham wins a corner after Shea Charles concedes.
86
Update Update
Shea Charles of Southampton won a free kick in defense.
86
Update Update
Foul by Oliver Rathbone of Wrexham.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Cameron Archer replaces Finn Azaz.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Nathan Wood replaces Kuryu Matsuki.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wrexham: Davis Keillor-Dunn replaces Kieffer Moore.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wrexham: Sam Smith replaces Josh Windass.
83
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Southampton scores, making it 5-1 against Wrexham. Finn Azaz finds the net with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the right corner, assisted by Shea Charles' header.
81
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Southampton scores, making it 4-1 against Wrexham. Ross Stewart heads the ball into the right corner from the center of the box, assisted by Welington's cross.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ryan Longman of Wrexham receives a yellow card for a foul.
81
Update Update
Léo Scienza from Southampton won a free kick on the left wing.
81
Update Update
Foul committed by Ryan Longman for Wrexham.
80
Attempt Attempt
Lewis O'Brien from Wrexham attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved by Southampton's goalkeeper, Daniel Peretz, who is positioned in the center of the goal.
79
Update Update
Oliver Rathbone from Wrexham won a free kick in an attacking position.
79
Update Update
Flynn Downes fouled a Southampton player.
79
Update Update
Foul committed by Finn Azaz of Southampton.
79
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Finn Azaz of Southampton receives a yellow card.
79
Update Update
Callum Doyle from Wrexham won a free kick in defense.
76
Update Update
Offside called against Southampton. Jack Stephens is offside.
76
Update Update
Offside called against Southampton. Taylor Harwood-Bellis is offside.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after Callum Doyle concedes.
75
Attempt Attempt
Kuryu Matsuki's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Finn Azaz.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wrexham: Ryan Longman replaces Issa Kaboré.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wrexham: Oliver Rathbone replaces Nathan Broadhead.
72
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Welington from Southampton receives a yellow card for a foul.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wrexham: Matty James replaces George Dobson.
72
Update Update
Issa Kaboré from Wrexham won a free kick in defense.
72
Update Update
Welington fouled a Southampton player.
71
Update Update
Kieffer Moore from Wrexham hits the woodwork with a close-range header.
71
Update Update
Josh Windass's header from the center of the box is blocked. Lewis O'Brien provided the assist.
71
Attempt Attempt
Shot blocked. Issa Kaboré from Wrexham had a right-footed shot from the right side of the box that was blocked.
66
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jack Stephens of Southampton receives a yellow card.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Ross Stewart replaces Cyle Larin.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Welington replaces Ryan Manning.
63
Corner Corner
Wrexham wins a corner after Kuryu Matsuki concedes.
63
Corner Corner
Kieffer Moore from Wrexham missed a header from the center of the box. The assist came from George Dobson, who provided a cross after a corner.
63
Corner Corner
Dominic Hyam from Wrexham had a missed chance, heading the ball from the right side of the six-yard box but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Kieffer Moore after a corner.
61
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Cyle Larin scores for Southampton with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the left corner. The match score is now Wrexham 1, Southampton 3.
59
Corner Corner
Wrexham win a corner after Ryan Manning concedes.
59
Attempt Attempt
Max Cleworth's shot for Wrexham from outside the box is blocked. Nathan Broadhead provided the assist.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Southampton: Léo Scienza replaces Samuel Edozie.
57
Update Update
Kieffer Moore from Wrexham committed a foul.
57
Update Update
Taylor Harwood-Bellis from Southampton won a free kick in defense.
57
Attempt Attempt
Cyle Larin from Southampton attempts an attack, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, but his shot is saved by Wrexham's goalkeeper Arthur Okonkwo, who is positioned in the center of the goal.
56
Update Update
Issa Kaboré fouled a Wrexham player.
56
Update Update
Finn Azaz from Southampton won a free kick in defense.
54
Update Update
Foul committed by James Bree for Southampton.
54
Update Update
Lewis O'Brien from Wrexham won a free kick in defense.
53
Update Update
Ryan Manning of Southampton won a free kick in an attacking position.
53
Update Update
Foul committed by George Dobson of Wrexham.
52
Update Update
Offside called against Southampton. Finn Azaz is in an offside position.
48
Corner Corner
Wrexham win a corner after Flynn Downes concedes.
45
Update Update
First half ends with Wrexham trailing Southampton 1-2.
45
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Finn Azaz of Southampton takes a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it is saved in the right corner by Arthur Okonkwo of Wrexham. The assist comes from Daniel Peretz.
45
Update Update
Finn Azaz from Southampton won a free kick in an attacking position.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by George Dobson for Wrexham.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 4 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
The second half starts with the score at Wrexham 1, Southampton 2.
44
Corner Corner
Southampton wins a corner after George Dobson concedes.
42
Attempt Attempt
Josh Windass from Wrexham had a missed chance as his right-footed shot from the right side of the box went high. Kieffer Moore provided the assist.
40
Attempt Attempt
Josh Windass from Wrexham had a shot blocked. He attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, assisted by Nathan Broadhead.
39
Update Update
Foul committed by Finn Azaz of Southampton.
39
Update Update
Callum Doyle from Wrexham won a free kick in defense.
38
Attempt Attempt
Cyle Larin from Southampton misses a chance with a left-footed shot from the center of the box.
37
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Callum Doyle from Wrexham receives a yellow card for a foul.
37
Update Update
Finn Azaz from Southampton won a free kick in defense.
37
Update Update
Foul committed by Callum Doyle for Wrexham.
36
Update Update
Foul committed by George Thomason of Wrexham.
36
Update Update
Kuryu Matsuki of Southampton won a free kick on the right wing.
34
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Wrexham scores, making it 1-2 against Southampton. Josh Windass finds the left corner with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, assisted by Kieffer Moore.
32
Update Update
Nathan Broadhead from Wrexham heads the ball and hits the left post from the center of the box.
31
Update Update
Kieffer Moore from Wrexham won a free kick on the right wing.
31
Update Update
Foul committed by Ryan Manning of Southampton.
30
Update Update
Foul committed by Kuryu Matsuki for Southampton.
30
Update Update
Nathan Broadhead from Wrexham won a free kick on the left wing.
29
Update Update
Kuryu Matsuki of Southampton won a free kick on the right wing.
29
Update Update
Foul committed by George Thomason for Wrexham.
28
Update Update
Foul committed by Samuel Edozie of Southampton.
28
Update Update
Lewis O'Brien from Wrexham won a free kick in defense.
27
Update Update
Offside called against Wrexham. George Thomason is in an offside position.
25
Attempt Attempt
Samuel Edozie of Southampton attempts an attack, shooting with his right foot from the left side of the box. The shot is saved by Wrexham's goalkeeper, Arthur Okonkwo, who is positioned in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Shea Charles.
22
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Southampton leads 2-0 after Flynn Downes scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
21
Update Update
Samuel Edozie from Southampton won a free kick on the left wing.
21
Update Update
Foul committed by Max Cleworth of Wrexham.
16
Update Update
Cyle Larin fouled a Southampton player.
16
Update Update
George Thomason from Wrexham won a free kick in defense.
14
Update Update
Foul committed by Lewis O'Brien of Wrexham.
14
Update Update
Kuryu Matsuki of Southampton won a free kick in an attacking position.
12
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Southampton takes the lead 1-0 against Wrexham. Kuryu Matsuki scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the right corner, assisted by Finn Azaz.
10
Attempt Attempt
Finn Azaz's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
10
Update Update
Foul committed by Taylor Harwood-Bellis for Southampton.
10
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Southampton after Lewis O'Brien concedes.
10
Update Update
Max Cleworth of Wrexham won a free kick in defense.
9
Attempt Attempt
Cyle Larin had a missed chance for Southampton, heading the ball from the center of the box.
9
Update Update
Finn Azaz from Southampton hits the woodwork with a header from a few meters out.
2
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to George Dobson from Wrexham.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Southampton exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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