Wrexham vs Hull City Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Racecourse Ground Tue, 10 Mar - 7:45 PM
Championship
Wrexham WXH
1 Winner 2
Hull City HUL
Full Time Tue, 10 Mar 7:45 PM
Nathan Broadhead - 76'
Goal
|
Goal
Lewis Koumas - 63'
Joe Gelhardt - 40'

CONTEXT

The match between Wrexham and Hull City has finished, with Hull City securing a 2-1 away victory. The visitors established an early advantage, leading 1-0 at half-time, and maintained their edge through to the final whistle. Wrexham controlled the ball, finishing the match with a dominant 63% possession compared to Hull City's 37%, but ultimately failed to convert that control into a positive result. This outcome represents a significant deviation favoring Hull City. Wrexham entered the contest as the clear favorites with a 48% pre-match probability to win, while a Hull City victory and a draw were both priced at just 26%. Because of this upset, the final result did not align with the pre-match market expectations. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, meaning it cannot be determined if the scoreline was consistent with the underlying shot quality. Despite the lopsided possession, the attacking efficiency shift was evaluated to be in line with the flow of the match, as the visitors capitalized on their limited opportunities. Finally, the match was contested cleanly; neither side received a red card, ensuring that disciplinary disadvantages did not impact the final scoreline.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Hull City showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Martin

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Wilson

2nd Assistant

M. Stevens

1st Assistant

J. Busby

4th Official

Wrexham P. Parkinson
P. Parkinson
VS
Hull City S. Jakirović
S. Jakirović
1.64
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.92
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Derby County Rank: W
Blackburn Rovers Rank: W
Preston North End Rank: W
Sheffield United Rank: W
Swansea City Rank: L
Watford Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Swansea City Rank: W
Preston North End Rank: W
Southampton Rank: W
Stoke City Rank: L
Middlesbrough Rank: W
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Wrexham
48%
Draw
26%
Away Hull City
26%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
27.61
32.04
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Wrexham
Hull City
Power Score
27.61
32.04
League Position
6
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Wrexham — Opponent-weighted form score
Hull City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Wrexham Hull City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Wrexham

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Hull City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Wrexham ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hull City
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
19.68
38.51
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
38.51
19.68
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Wrexham -1.92 Efficiency Index
vs
Hull City +1.92 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Wrexham
Hull City
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Wrexham ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hull City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Wrexham Hull City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Wrexham Hull City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Wrexham
Hull City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Wrexham WXH Home
1 matches
Hull City HUL Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
0
-2
Goal Difference
+2

Data last updated: 2026-03-11T00:06:22+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 10, 2026, 07:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Championship, England
Stadium :
Racecourse Ground
Capacity :
10771
Attendance :
10502
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
James Wilson
Stephen Martin
Mark Stevens
John Busby

Statistics

Possession
WXH
58%
HUL
42%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 3
5 Shots 6
48 Dangerous attacks 45
63 Possession 37
8 Corners 4
9 Free kicks 10
3 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

4 Goal Attempts 6
77 Ball Safe 79
1 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 5
4 Goal Kicks 5
14 Dribble Attempts 18
31 Throwins 31
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 17
7 Successful Dribbles 3
18 Successful Headers 21
0 Penalties 1

Attacking

107 Attacks 102
2 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

80 Successful Passes Percentage 70
414 Successful Passes 218
19 Successful Long Passes 22
56 Long Passes 67
515 Passes 312
8 Key Passes 5
34 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33

Defensive

58 Duels Won 48
25 Tackles 11
8 Interceptions 8
3 Saves 1

Build-up

29 Total Crosses 9
2 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
11 Fouls 9

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Kyle Joseph
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
86'
Event
Toby Collyer
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Bailey Cadamarteri → Max Cleworth
9th Substitution
84'
Event
Jay Rodríguez → Sam Smith
10th Substitution
84'
82'
Event
Toby Collyer → Liam Millar
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Mohamed Belloumi → Joe Gelhardt
7th Substitution
Event
Nathan Broadhead
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
76'
Event
D. Keillor-Dunn → Josh Windass
5th Substitution
70'
Event
Issa Kaboré → Ryan Longman
6th Substitution
70'
69'
Event
Kyle Joseph → Oliver McBurnie
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Semi Ajayi → Patrick James Coleman McNair
3rd Substitution
Event
Dominic Hyam
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
66'
63'
Event
Lewis Koumas
Header / 2nd Goal
60'
Event
John Lundstram → Amir Hadziahmetovic
2nd Substitution
Event
Ollie Rathbone
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
49'
Event
Ollie Rathbone → Zak Vyner
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45+1'
Event
Charlie Hughes
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
44'
Event
Joe Gelhardt
GoalkeeperSave
40'
Event
Joe Gelhardt
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Sam Smith
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
8'
7'
Event
Oliver McBurnie
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Wrexham 1, Hull City 2.
90
Update Update
Kyle Joseph from Hull City committed a foul.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Mohamed Belloumi of Hull City fires a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Regan Slater.
90
Update Update
Issa Kaboré from Wrexham was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kyle Joseph from Hull City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
90
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Dominic Hyam from Wrexham took a left-footed shot from the center of the box that came close but didn't find the target. The assist was provided by Oliver Rathbone following a corner kick.
90
Corner Corner
Wrexham has been awarded a corner after Regan Slater allowed the ball to go out.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Oliver Rathbone from Wrexham takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Davis Keillor-Dunn.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Wrexham after Semi Ajayi allowed the ball to go out.
89
Update Update
Issa Kaboré from Wrexham was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
89
Update Update
Lewis Koumas from Hull City committed a foul.
88
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Jay Rodriguez from Wrexham attempted a header from close range but couldn't convert.
86
Update Update
Toby Collyer from Hull City committed a foul.
86
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Toby Collyer from Hull City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
86
Update Update
Issa Kaboré from Wrexham was awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
85
Update Update
Kyle Joseph from Hull City committed a foul.
85
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Davis Keillor-Dunn from Wrexham attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Bailey Cadamarteri, who set him up with a header.
85
Update Update
Dominic Hyam from Wrexham was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
84
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Nathan Broadhead from Wrexham attempted a left-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box following a corner kick.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wrexham: Bailey Cadamarteri comes on to replace Max Cleworth.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wrexham: Jay Rodriguez replaces Sam Smith.
83
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Callum Doyle from Wrexham fires a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Nathan Broadhead.
83
Corner Corner
Wrexham has been awarded a corner kick after Semi Ajayi allowed the ball to go out of play.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hull City: Toby Collyer replaces Liam Millar.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hull City: Mohamed Belloumi replaces Joe Gelhardt.
79
Update Update
Dominic Hyam commits a foul against Wrexham.
79
Update Update
Kyle Joseph from Hull City was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
76
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. George Thomason from Wrexham takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
76
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Wrexham 1, Hull City 2. Nathan Broadhead scores for Wrexham, firing a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom left corner. The assist came from Issa Kaboré, who delivered a precise cross.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Wrexham after Ivor Pandur allowed the ball to go out.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Wrexham after Cody Drameh allowed it to go out of play.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wrexham: Issa Kaboré comes on to replace Ryan Longman.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wrexham: Davis Keillor-Dunn comes on to replace Josh Windass.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hull City: Semi Ajayi comes on to replace Paddy McNair.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hull City: Kyle Joseph comes on to replace Oliver McBurnie.
68
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Joe Gelhardt from Hull City fires a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
66
Update Update
Joe Gelhardt from Hull City earned a free kick in an offensive position.
66
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dominic Hyam of Wrexham has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
66
Update Update
Dominic Hyam committed a foul on a Wrexham player.
63
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Wrexham 0, Hull City 2. Lewis Koumas heads the ball into the right corner from the center of the box. The assist came from Liam Millar, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Hull City after Callum Doyle allowed the ball to go out.
62
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push underway. Liam Millar from Hull City takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the box, but it's expertly stopped by goalkeeper Arthur Okonkwo of Wrexham, who is positioned centrally. The assist came from Lewis Koumas.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hull City: John Lundstram replaces Amir Hadziahmetovic due to an injury.
55
Update Update
Oliver Rathbone commits a handball for Wrexham.
53
Corner Corner
Wrexham has been awarded a corner after Lewis Koumas allowed the ball to go out.
52
Corner Corner
Wrexham has been awarded a corner kick after Amir Hadziahmetovic allowed the ball to go out of play.
49
Update Update
Amir Hadziahmetovic from Hull City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive zone.
49
Update Update
Paddy McNair from Hull City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
49
Update Update
Ryan Longman committed a foul against Wrexham.
49
Update Update
Oliver Rathbone committed a foul on a Wrexham player.
49
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Oliver Rathbone from Wrexham has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
46
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Lewis Koumas from Hull City attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the right of the goal.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score at Wrexham 0, Hull City 1.
45
Update Update
Charlie Hughes from Hull City committed a foul.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
Sam Smith from Wrexham has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Charlie Hughes from Hull City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wrexham: Oliver Rathbone comes on to replace Zak Vyner.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score at Wrexham 0, Hull City 1.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Hull City after Max Cleworth allowed the ball to go out.
44
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. Liam Millar from Hull City heads the ball from the center of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Hull City after Max Cleworth allowed the ball to go out.
42
Update Update
Penalty awarded to Hull City! Joe Gelhardt is brought down in the box.
42
Update Update
Callum Doyle of Wrexham has given away a penalty following a foul inside the box.
40
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Wrexham 0, Hull City 1. Joe Gelhardt scores for Hull City with a stunning left-footed shot from a free kick, finding the top right corner of the net.
39
Update Update
Callum Doyle committed a foul on a Wrexham player.
39
Update Update
Charlie Hughes from Hull City earned a free kick in an offensive position.
37
Update Update
Foul committed by Amir Hadziahmetovic of Hull City.
37
Update Update
Nathan Broadhead from Wrexham earned a free kick in the defensive area.
36
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Zak Vyner from Wrexham fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The setup for the shot came from Nathan Broadhead.
36
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Wrexham after Joe Gelhardt allowed the ball to go out.
34
Update Update
Callum Doyle commits a foul against Wrexham.
34
Update Update
Cody Drameh from Hull City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
33
Update Update
Charlie Hughes from Hull City committed a foul.
33
Update Update
Nathan Broadhead from Wrexham earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
27
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Josh Windass from Wrexham takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area. However, Ivor Pandur from Hull City makes a great save, denying him in the left corner. The assist comes from Ryan Longman.
27
Update Update
George Thomason committed a foul for Wrexham.
27
Update Update
Charlie Hughes from Hull City was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
24
Update Update
Ryan Longman from Wrexham has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
24
Update Update
Lewis Koumas from Hull City committed a foul.
23
Update Update
Joe Gelhardt from Hull City earned a free kick in an offensive position.
23
Update Update
Lewis O'Brien commits a foul against Wrexham.
22
Attempt Attempt
A new offensive play unfolds as Oliver McBurnie from Hull City takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, the effort is thwarted by Wrexham's goalkeeper, Arthur Okonkwo, who makes a save right in the center of the goal. The assist came from John Egan.
20
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Hull City after Callum Doyle allowed the ball to go out.
20
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Hull City after Callum Doyle allowed the ball to go out.
16
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Hull City after Zak Vyner allowed the ball to go out.
12
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Oliver McBurnie from Hull City took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, which came close but veered to the left.
8
Update Update
Sam Smith from Wrexham committed a foul.
8
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sam Smith from Wrexham has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
8
Update Update
Regan Slater from Hull City has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
7
Update Update
Dominic Hyam of Wrexham was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
7
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Oliver McBurnie of Hull City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
7
Update Update
Oliver McBurnie from Hull City committed a foul.
5
Update Update
Offside call against Wrexham. George Thomason has been flagged for being offside.
5
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Oliver McBurnie from Hull City attempted a shot with his right foot from outside the penalty area.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Hull City exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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