Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Fulham Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Molineux Stadium Sun, 17 May - 2:00 PM
Premier League
Wolverhampton Wanderers WOL
1 – 1
Fulham FUL
Full Time Sun, 17 May 2:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season
Mateus Mané - 25'
Goal
|
Goal
Antonee Robinson - 45+3' (P)

CONTEXT

Wolverhampton Wanderers hosted Fulham in a match that concluded with a 1-1 scoreline after both teams were level at halftime. Fulham controlled the majority of possession with 69 percent compared to 31 percent for the home side. Expected goals favored the visitors at 1.71 against 1.07 for Wolverhampton Wanderers resulting in a differential of minus 0.64. The stronger team according to pre-match assessment was Fulham yet the final result was a draw. No red cards were issued to either side and the outcome proved inconsistent with the underlying expected goals metrics. A significant deviation of 74.5 percent was recorded with Fulham as the deviation team. The efficiency shift stayed in line with established patterns and the result did not align with market indicators. Second half adjustments remained minimal as the scoreline held steady from the interval.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Fulham recorded a significant structural deviation through 69 percent possession dominance.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with established patterns for both sides.
  • xG alignment: Outcome was not aligned with xG given the 1.07 to 1.71 differential.
  • Market alignment: Result showed no market alignment based on pre-match indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations stood at 1.07 for home and 1.71 for away.
  • Event impact: No major events shifted the 1-1 outcome from halftime onward.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards produced no distortion to match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

T. Kirk

England 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Long

1st Assistant

England

C. Kavanagh

4th Official

England

M. Wilkes

2nd Assistant

England

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 18.63
Yellow cards / match 3.34
Red cards / match 0.09
Penalties / match 0.18
Wolverhampton Wanderers R. Edwards
R. Edwards
VS
Fulham M. Saraiva Da Silva
M. Saraiva Da Silva
0.64
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.48
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: 90 L
Sunderland Rank: 81 D
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: 82 L
Leeds United Rank: 88 L
West Ham United Rank: 83 L
Brentford Rank: 88 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
AFC Bournemouth Rank: 90 L
Arsenal Rank: 97 L
Aston Villa Rank: 91 W
Brentford Rank: 88 D
Liverpool Rank: 91 L
Burnley Rank: 77 W
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 9 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Wolverhampton Wanderers
23.28%
Draw
25.54%
Away Fulham
51.18%

Movement

Changes since opening
Wolverhampton Wanderers
+19.21%
Draw
-65.45%
Fulham
+46.25%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65.62
70.3
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Fulham
Power Score
65.62
70.3
League Position
20
13
Global Rank
67
31

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Wolverhampton Wanderers — Opponent-weighted form score
Fulham — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Wolverhampton Wanderers Fulham

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Fulham

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Wolverhampton Wanderers ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Fulham
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.32
23.12
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.12
40.32
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Wolverhampton Wanderers +1.87 Efficiency Index
vs
Fulham -1.87 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Fulham
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Wolverhampton Wanderers
vs
Fulham
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Wolverhampton Wanderers Fulham
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Wolverhampton Wanderers Fulham
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Fulham
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Wolverhampton Wanderers
vs
Fulham
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Wolverhampton Wanderers Fulham
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Wolverhampton Wanderers 0.37
Fulham 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Wolverhampton Wanderers Fulham
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Wolverhampton Wanderers 0.02
Fulham 0.03
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Fulham
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FUL had peak pressure around 37'.
  • FUL started the game with stronger pressure.
WOL Pressure FUL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FUL reached the top pressure at 37' (91.09).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 29 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Wolverhampton Wanderers WOL Home
29 matches
Fulham FUL Away
Match Record
14
Wins
6
9
Draws
9
6
Losses
14
Goals
44
Goals Scored
34
34
Goals Conceded
44
+10
Goal Difference
-10

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T09:02:46+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
J. Malheiro de Sá
Portugal
1 (C) J. Malheiro de Sá
Y. Mosquera
Colombia
15 Y. Mosquera
S. Bueno Sciutto
Uruguay
4 S. Bueno Sciutto
L. Krejčí
Czech Republic
37 L. Krejčí
D. Wolfe
Substitution
Norway
6 D. Wolfe
Gomes
Brazil
8 Gomes
A. Trindade da Costa Neto
Brazil
7 A. Trindade da Costa Neto
R. Gomes
Substitution
Portugal
21 R. Gomes
M. Mané
England
36 M. Mané
H. Hwang
Substitution
South Korea
11 H. Hwang
A. Armstrong
Substitution
England
9 A. Armstrong
Pitch
B. Leno
Germany
1 (C) B. Leno
A. Robinson
United States
33 A. Robinson
C. Bassey
Nigeria
3 C. Bassey
I. Diop
France
31 I. Diop
T. Castagne
Belgium
21 T. Castagne
S. Berge
Substitution
Norway
16 S. Berge
S. Lukić
Serbia
20 S. Lukić
A. Iwobi
Substitution
Nigeria
17 A. Iwobi
E. Smith Rowe
Substitution
England
32 E. Smith Rowe
O. Bobb
Substitution
Norway
14 O. Bobb
Rodrigo Muniz
Substitution
Brazil
9 Rodrigo Muniz

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Molineux Stadium
Capacity :
32050
Attendance :
28709
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Simon Long
Chris Kavanagh
Thomas Kirk
Matthew Wilkes

Statistics

Possession
WOL
36%
FUL
64%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 5
30 Dangerous attacks 59
31 Possession 69
3 Corners 6
10 Free kicks 19
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

14 Throwins 16
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67
8 Goal Kicks 11
5 Successful Dribbles 10
13 Dribble Attempts 15
9 Successful Headers 11
1 Assists 0
0 Penalties 1
4 Substitutions 5
67 Ball Safe 100
10 Goal Attempts 8
1 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

82 Attacks 105
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

69 Successful Passes Percentage 86
261 Passes 592
52 Long Passes 37
181 Successful Passes 512
37 Successful Long Passes Percentage 51
7 Key Passes 8
19 Successful Long Passes 19

Defensive

38 Duels Won 59
16 Tackles 19
4 Saves 2
12 Interceptions 10

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 20
6 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

20 Fouls 8
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Thomas Kirk

Starting XI ▼

1
José Sá
José Sá (C) Goalkeeper
6.81
4
Santiago Bueno
Santiago Bueno Defender
6.7
6
David Møller Wolfe
David Møller Wolfe Defender
6.24
3
Hugo Bueno
Hugo Bueno
Defender85'
6.6
15
Yerson Mosquera
Yerson Mosquera Defender
6.42
37
Ladislav Krejci
Ladislav Krejci Defender
6.65
7
André
André Midfielder
6.52
8
João Gomes
João Gomes Midfielder
6.14
11
Hee-chan Hwang
Hee-chan Hwang Midfielder
7.46
27
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde
Midfielder79'
6.35
21
Rodrigo Gomes
Rodrigo Gomes Midfielder
6.94
17
Pedro Lima
Pedro Lima
Defender85'
6.6
36
Mateus Mané
Mateus Mané Midfielder
7.4
9
Adam Armstrong
Adam Armstrong Attacker
6.47
14
Tolu Arokodare
Tolu Arokodare
Attacker72'
7.04
Referee : Thomas Kirk

Starting XI ▼

1
Bernd Leno
Bernd Leno (C) Goalkeeper
6.86
3
Calvin Bassey
Calvin Bassey Defender
7.23
21
Timothy Castagne
Timothy Castagne Defender
7.52
31
Issa Diop
Issa Diop Defender
6.56
33
Antonee Robinson
Antonee Robinson Defender
7.75
14
Oscar Bobb
Oscar Bobb Midfielder
7.16
19
Samuel Chukwueze
Samuel Chukwueze
Attacker79'
6.67
16
Sander Berge
Sander Berge Midfielder
6.49
22
Kevin
Kevin
Attacker46'
6.55
17
Alex Iwobi
Alex Iwobi Midfielder
7.04
24
Josh King
Josh King
Midfielder67'
6.55
20
Saša Lukić
Saša Lukić Midfielder
7.49
32
Emile Smith Rowe
Emile Smith Rowe Midfielder
7.15
8
Harry Wilson
Harry Wilson
Attacker79'
6.73
9
Rodrigo Muniz
Rodrigo Muniz Attacker
6.44
7
Raúl Jiménez
Raúl Jiménez
Attacker67'
6.64

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
André
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Pedro Lima → Rodrigo Gomes
9th Substitution
85'
Event
Hugo Bueno → David Møller Wolfe
8th Substitution
85'
Event
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde → Hee-chan Hwang
5th Substitution
79'
79'
Event
Harry Wilson → Emile Smith Rowe
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Samuel Chukwueze → Oscar Bobb 
6th Substitution
Event
Tolu Arokodare → Adam Armstrong
4th Substitution
72'
67'
Event
Raúl Jiménez → Rodrigo Muniz
2nd Substitution
67'
Event
Josh King → Alex Iwobi
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Kevin → Sander Berge
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+3'
Event
Antonee Robinson
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
45+1'
Event
Timothy Castagne
Penalty awarded
Event
Mateus Mané
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
25'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Santos Lopes de Macedo takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Andre Trindade da Costa Neto.
90
Attempt Attempt
Raul Alonso Jimenez Rodriguez takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
88
Attempt Attempt
Harry Wilson takes a left-footed shot but misses.
86
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Lima takes a right-footed shot but misses.
85
Update Update
Pedro Lima replaces Rodrigo Martins Gomes.
85
Update Update
Hugo Bueno López comes on for David Moller Wolfe.
83
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Martins Gomes takes a right-footed shot but misses.
82
Attempt Attempt
Harry Wilson takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
81
Attempt Attempt
Tolu Arokodare takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
79
Update Update
Harry Wilson is on, and Emile Smith Rowe is off.
79
Update Update
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde replaces Hee-Chan Hwang.
79
Update Update
Samuel Chimerenka Chukwueze is on, and Oscar Bobb is off.
72
Update Update
On comes Tolu Arokodare, and Adam Armstrong goes off.
70
Attempt Attempt
Raul Alonso Jimenez Rodriguez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
68
Attempt Attempt
Adam Armstrong takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
67
Update Update
Raul Alonso Jimenez Rodriguez comes on for Rodrigo Muniz Carvalho.
67
Update Update
Joshua King replaces Alex Iwobi.
56
Attempt Attempt
Alex Iwobi takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
53
Attempt Attempt
Hee-Chan Hwang takes a right-footed shot but misses.
52
Attempt Attempt
Yerson Mosquera's header shot misses the target.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Kevin Santos Lopes de Macedo comes on for Sander Berge.
45
Attempt Attempt
Sasa Lukic's left-footed shot is blocked.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Antonee Robinson scores, making it 1-1.
45
Update Update
VAR decision confirms a penalty awarded to Timothy Castagne.
41
Attempt Attempt
Emile Smith Rowe's left-footed shot is saved.
34
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Muniz Carvalho attempts a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
33
Attempt Attempt
Timothy Castagne takes a right-footed shot but misses.
33
Attempt Attempt
Sander Berge takes a right-footed shot but misses.
31
Attempt Attempt
Yerson Mosquera attempted a header but missed the shot.
29
Attempt Attempt
Sander Berge's header shot misses the target.
25
Attempt Attempt
Mateus Mane scores with a right-footed shot.
25
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Martins Gomes takes a right-footed shot but misses.
25
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mateus Mane scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Hee-Chan Hwang.
20
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Martins Gomes takes a left-footed shot but misses.
17
Attempt Attempt
Mateus Mane's left-footed shot is saved.
12
Attempt Attempt
Alex Iwobi takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 draw between Wolverhampton Wanderers and Fulham reflected a balanced yet possession skewed encounter where underlying metrics pointed to greater away team control. With expected goals favoring Fulham the equal scoreline highlighted limited conversion efficiency from both attacks. Possession statistics underscored the visitors dominance yet no decisive breakthrough occurred after the opening period. Absence of disciplinary incidents allowed uninterrupted play that preserved the halftime parity through to full time. Analytical review confirms the result diverged from xG projections while efficiency metrics remained consistent with prior benchmarks. This fixture illustrated how structural advantages in territory do not always translate directly into goal outcomes when finishing remains restrained across both teams.

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Fulham preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.