Winterthur vs Zürich Prediction, Preview and Stats

Switzerland flag 2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Stadion Schützenwiese Sat, 2 May - 4:00 PM
Super League
Winterthur Winterthur
2 – 2
Zürich ZUR
Full Time Sat, 2 May 4:00 PM
Round 35 Relegation Round
Andrin Hunziker - 90+6' (P)
Pajtim Kasami - 25'
Goal
|
Goal
Philippe Paulin Keny - 69' (P)
Juan José Perea - 23'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Winterthur 2–2 Zürich. The match ended in a draw. Zürich showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 50%–50%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The 2-2 draw marked a significant 94.9% structural deviation for Zürich from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Both teams' efficiencies stayed in line with assessments throughout the match.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented alignment check against the 2-2 outcome.
  • Market alignment: Pre-match positioning did not align with the resulting draw.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations remained unassessable due to missing performance metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events shifted the match trajectory.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion to the game's natural flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

L. Cibelli

Fouls / match 0
Yellow cards / match 0
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

I. Jancevski

2nd Assistant

L. Berchier

4th Official

M. Sbrissa

1st Assistant

Winterthur P. Rahmen
P. Rahmen
VS
Zürich C. Bernegger
C. Bernegger
0.59
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.95
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Servette Rank: 61 L
Grasshopper Rank: 48 L
Lausanne Sport Rank: 56 L
Basel Rank: 63 L
Luzern Rank: 60 W
Sion Rank: 62 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lausanne Sport Rank: 56 L
Lugano Rank: 63 L
St. Gallen Rank: 65 L
Thun Rank: 64 W
Sion Rank: 62 L
Servette Rank: 62 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 6 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Winterthur
0.19%
Draw
5.09%
Away Zürich
94.72%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
43.81
50.21
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Winterthur
Zürich
Power Score
43.81
50.21
League Position
12
10
Global Rank
934
775

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Winterthur — Opponent-weighted form score
Zürich — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Winterthur Zürich

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Winterthur

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Zürich

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Winterthur ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zürich
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.30
38.10
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
38.10
40.30
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Winterthur +0.20 Efficiency Index
vs
Zürich -0.20 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Winterthur
Zürich
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Winterthur ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zürich
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Winterthur Zürich
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Winterthur Zürich
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Winterthur
Zürich
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Winterthur
vs
Zürich
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Winterthur Zürich
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Winterthur 0.42
Zürich 0.26
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Winterthur Zürich
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Winterthur 0.03
Zürich 0.05
Winterthur
Zürich
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Winterthur had peak pressure around 70'.
  • ZUR started the game with stronger pressure.
Winterthur Pressure ZUR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Winterthur reached the top pressure at 70' (64.80).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 15 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Winterthur Winterthur Home
15 matches
Zürich ZUR Away
Match Record
1
Wins
8
6
Draws
6
8
Losses
1
Goals
13
Goals Scored
29
29
Goals Conceded
13
-16
Goal Difference
+16

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:05:49+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
S. Kapino
Greece
1 S. Kapino
F. Rohner
Substitution
Switzerland
27 F. Rohner
R. Arnold
Switzerland
16 R. Arnold
L. Lüthi
Switzerland
21 L. Lüthi
R. Smith
Substitution
Switzerland
3 R. Smith
P. Kasami
Substitution
Switzerland
23 P. Kasami
S. Cueni
Substitution
Switzerland
44 S. Cueni
A. Jankewitz
Switzerland
45 A. Jankewitz
T. Golliard
Switzerland
8 T. Golliard
A. Hunziker
Switzerland
17 A. Hunziker
N. Burkart
Substitution
Switzerland
99 N. Burkart
Pitch
S. Huber
Switzerland
1 S. Huber
S. Walker
Substitution
Switzerland
44 S. Walker
A. Hack
Germany
42 A. Hack
L. Kamberi
Switzerland
2 L. Kamberi
S. Hodža
Substitution
Switzerland
32 S. Hodža
C. Tsawa
Switzerland
6 C. Tsawa
N. Palacio
Colombia
15 N. Palacio
I. Neves Abreu Cavaleiro
Substitution
Angola
8 I. Neves Abreu Cavaleiro
N. Di Giusto
Substitution
Switzerland
14 N. Di Giusto
J. Perea Mendoza
Substitution
Colombia
9 J. Perea Mendoza
P. Keny
Senegal
19 P. Keny

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland · Round 35 · Relegation Round
Stadium :
Stadion Schützenwiese
Capacity :
9450
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Luca Cibelli
Ilco Jancevski
Logan Berchier
Matthias Sbrissa

Statistics

Possession
Winterthur
50%
ZUR
50%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 2
6 Shots 5
43 Dangerous attacks 61
50 Possession 50
6 Corners 3
17 Free kicks 13
3 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

0 Injuries 1
30 Throwins 20
9 Goal Kicks 11
100 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
7 Successful Dribbles 6
7 Dribble Attempts 12
1 Assists 1
10 Goal Attempts 9
1 Hit Woodwork 0
86 Ball Safe 77
5 Substitutions 5
1 Penalties 1

Attacking

79 Attacks 84
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

224 Successful Passes 255
12 Key Passes 8
72 Successful Passes Percentage 80
311 Passes 320
17 Successful Long Passes 27
47 Long Passes 51
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 53

Defensive

11 Interceptions 8
22 Tackles 4
3 Saves 4

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 20
6 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
14 Fouls 18

Lineup

Referee : Luca Cibelli

Starting XI ▼

1
Stefanos Kapino
Stefanos Kapino Goalkeeper
6.98
3
Rhodri Smith
Rhodri Smith Defender
6.33
18
Souleymane Diaby
Souleymane Diaby
Defender46'
6.49
16
Remo Arnold
Remo Arnold Defender
6.47
21
Loïc Lüthi
Loïc Lüthi Defender
6.56
27
Fabian Rohner
Fabian Rohner Defender
6.53
19
Dario Ulrich
Dario Ulrich
Midfielder70'
6.49
23
Pajtim Kasami
Pajtim Kasami Midfielder
6.8
35
Leandro Maksutaj
Leandro Maksutaj
Midfielder78'
6.42
44
Stéphane Cueni
Stéphane Cueni Midfielder
6.59
9
Roman Buess
Roman Buess
Attacker70'
6.68
45
Alexandre Jankewitz
Alexandre Jankewitz Midfielder
6.61
8
Théo Golliard
Théo Golliard Attacker
6.88
17
Andrin Hunziker
Andrin Hunziker Attacker
6.96
99
Nishan Burkart
Nishan Burkart Attacker
6.86
10
Randy Schneider
Randy Schneider
Midfielder70'
6.79
Referee : Luca Cibelli

Starting XI ▼

1
Silas Huber
Silas Huber Goalkeeper
6.85
2
Lindrit Kamberi
Lindrit Kamberi Defender
6.84
32
Selmin Hodza
Selmin Hodza Defender
6.45
3
Livano Comenencia
Livano Comenencia
Defender70'
6.61
42
Alexander Hack
Alexander Hack Defender
7
44
Sebastian Walker
Sebastian Walker Defender
6.43
27
Ilan Sauter
Ilan Sauter
Defender61'
6.69
6
Cheveyo Tsawa
Cheveyo Tsawa Midfielder
6.87
8
Ivan Cavaleiro
Ivan Cavaleiro Midfielder
6.9
35
David Vujevic
David Vujevic
Defender86'
6.78
9
Juan José Perea
Juan José Perea Midfielder
6.53
11
Umeh Emmanuel
Umeh Emmanuel
Attacker70'
6.59
14
Nevio Di Giusto
Nevio Di Giusto Midfielder
6.65
7
Bledian Krasniqi
Bledian Krasniqi
Midfielder61'
6.67
15
Nelson Palacio
Nelson Palacio Midfielder
6.79
19
Philippe Paulin Keny
Philippe Paulin Keny Attacker
7.04

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Andrin Hunziker
Right foot shot / 2nd Penalty
90+6'
90+6'
Event
Silas Huber
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
Event
Loïc Lüthi
Penalty awarded
90+5'
Event
Andrin Hunziker
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90'
86'
Event
David Vujevic → Ivan Cavaleiro
10th Substitution
Event
Leandro Maksutaj → Pajtim Kasami
9th Substitution
78'
Event
Roman Buess → Stéphane Cueni
4th Substitution
70'
Event
Randy Schneider → Nishan Burkart
7th Substitution
70'
Event
Dario Ulrich → Fabian Rohner
8th Substitution
70'
70'
Event
Livano Comenencia → Selmin Hodza
5th Substitution
70'
Event
Umeh Emmanuel → Juan José Perea
6th Substitution
69'
Event
Philippe Paulin Keny
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
61'
Event
Bledian Krasniqi → Nevio Di Giusto
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Ilan Sauter → Sebastian Walker
3rd Substitution
Event
Souleymane Diaby → Rhodri Smith
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
39'
Event
Juan José Perea
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
37'
Event
Sebastian Walker
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Stéphane Cueni
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
32'
30'
Event
Nelson Palacio
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Pajtim Kasami
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
25'
23'
Event
Juan José Perea
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Pajtim Kasami
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Andrin Hunziker receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Souleymane Diaby takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Andrin Hunziker scores with a right-footed shot.
90
Update Update
VAR review leads to a penalty being awarded to Loic Luthi.
90
Update Update
Goal in the penalty shootout! Andrin Hunziker scores, making it 2-2.
90
Attempt Attempt
Umeh Emmanuel takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Leandro Maksutaj's left-footed shot is blocked.
86
Update Update
David Vujevic replaces Ivan Ricardo Neves Abreu Cavaleiro.
85
Attempt Attempt
Cheveyo Tsawa takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
78
Attempt Attempt
Andrin Hunziker takes a header shot but misses.
78
Update Update
Leandro Maksutaj comes on for Pajtim Kasami.
76
Attempt Attempt
Philippe Paulin Keny takes a shot with his head, but it is saved.
74
Attempt Attempt
Dario Ulrich's right-footed shot is blocked.
74
Attempt Attempt
Pajtim Kasami takes a left-footed shot but misses.
70
Update Update
Dario Ulrich is on, and Fabian Rohner is off.
70
Substitution Substitution
Roman Buess is substituted for Stephane Cueni.
70
Update Update
Randy Schneider is on, and Nishan Burkart is off.
70
Update Update
Livano Comenencia is on, and Selmin Hodza is off.
70
Update Update
Umeh Emmanuel comes on for Juan Jose Perea Mendoza.
69
Update Update
Goal in the penalty shootout! Juan Jose Perea Mendoza scores, making it 1-2.
69
Attempt Attempt
Philippe Paulin Keny takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
67
Attempt Attempt
Bledian Krasniqi has a shot with his right foot, but it's blocked.
66
Attempt Attempt
Nishan Burkart takes a left-footed shot but misses.
64
Attempt Attempt
Pajtim Kasami's right-footed shot is blocked.
64
Attempt Attempt
Pajtim Kasami takes a left-footed shot but misses.
63
Attempt Attempt
Alexandre Jankewitz's header is saved.
61
Update Update
Bledian Krasniqi comes on for Nevio Di Giusto.
61
Update Update
Ilan Sauter replaces Sebastian Walker.
57
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Ricardo Neves Abreu Cavaleiro takes a right-footed shot but misses.
53
Attempt Attempt
Nevio Di Giusto takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
51
Attempt Attempt
Theo Golliard takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
46
Update Update
Souleymane Diaby comes on for Rhodri Smith.
45
Attempt Attempt
Andrin Hunziker takes a left-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Cheveyo Tsawa takes a right-footed shot but misses.
39
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Juan Jose Perea Mendoza receives a yellow card.
37
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Ricardo Neves Abreu Cavaleiro takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
34
Update Update
Lindrit Kamberi's header is blocked.
34
Attempt Attempt
Cheveyo Tsawa takes a right-footed shot but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Philippe Paulin Keny takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
32
Attempt Attempt
Cheveyo Tsawa takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
32
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Stephane Cueni.
28
Attempt Attempt
Nishan Burkart takes a right-footed shot but misses.
28
Attempt Attempt
Nishan Burkart takes a right-footed shot but misses.
25
Attempt Attempt
Pajtim Kasami takes a left-footed shot and scores.
23
Attempt Attempt
Juan Jose Perea Mendoza takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
18
Attempt Attempt
Pajtim Kasami has a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
18
Attempt Attempt
Loic Luthi takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
9
Attempt Attempt
Nelson Palacio takes a right-footed shot but misses.
8
Attempt Attempt
Nishan Burkart's right-footed shot is saved.
4
Attempt Attempt
Nevio Di Giusto takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
1
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pajtim Kasami receives a yellow card.

CONCLUSION

Winterthur's 2-2 draw against stronger opponents FC Zürich exemplifies their growing home tenacity, neutralizing even possession and halftime parity into a hard-earned point. Zürich's inability to capitalize on superiority exposes vulnerabilities in finishing, despite controlled dominance. This outcome disrupts conventional strength hierarchies, rewarding Winterthur's disciplined structure and timely goals. For Zürich, it serves as a cautionary tale on complacency, while Winterthur builds momentum. Both teams depart with positives—resilience for the hosts, underlying quality for the visitors—setting up intriguing league narratives ahead. The result reaffirms football's essence: no outcome is guaranteed.

Winterthur vs Zürich preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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