Winterthur vs Luzern Prediction, Preview and Stats

Switzerland flag 2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Stadion Schützenwiese Sat, 16 May - 4:00 PM
Super League
Winterthur Winterthur
0 Winner 3
Luzern LUZ
Full Time Sat, 16 May 4:00 PM
Round 38 Relegation Round
|
Goal
Oscar Kabwit - 68', 39'
Pius Dorn - 54'
Tibault Citherlet 45+1' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Winterthur hosted Luzern in a match that ended 0-3 with the halftime score at 0-1. Luzern held 58 percent possession while Winterthur had 42 percent. A red card was issued to Winterthur which affected their lineup for the second half. Luzern as the stronger team secured the victory in line with pre-match indicators. The performance deviation reached 31.6 percent and was classified as significant for Luzern. Efficiency metrics stayed consistent with prior patterns for both sides. Expected goals figures were not recorded so direct comparisons to the scoreline could not be made. The outcome matched the projected result for the favored side. Second half adjustments centered on the red card impact.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Winterthur 0-3 Luzern. Luzern showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with established patterns for both teams.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable preventing alignment checks with the score.
  • Market alignment: The final result aligned with projections for the stronger team.
  • xG expectations: No expected goals values were available to compare against actual goals.
  • Event impact: The red card altered second half team structure and progression.
  • Red card distortion: The dismissal distorted Winterthur defensive balance after halftime.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

N. Gianforte

Switzerland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. dos Santos

2nd Assistant

Portugal

B. Zürcher

1st Assistant

Switzerland

Z. Prskalo

4th Official

Switzerland

League averages

Super League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.57
Yellow cards / match 4.22
Red cards / match 0.22
Penalties / match 0.46
Winterthur P. Rahmen
P. Rahmen
VS
Luzern M. Frick
M. Frick
0.71
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.38
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Grasshopper Rank: 48 L
Lausanne Sport Rank: 56 W
Zürich Rank: 50 D
Servette Rank: 61 L
Grasshopper Rank: 49 L
Lausanne Sport Rank: 54 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zürich Rank: 51 W
Servette Rank: 63 D
Lausanne Sport Rank: 57 W
Grasshopper Rank: 49 W
St. Gallen Rank: 65 D
Servette Rank: 63 L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 3 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Winterthur
14.11%
Draw
17.45%
Away Luzern
68.44%

Movement

Changes since opening
Winterthur
+12.94%
Draw
+13.79%
Luzern
-26.72%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
44.28
60.24
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Winterthur
Luzern
Power Score
44.28
60.24
League Position
12
7
Global Rank
921
477

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Winterthur — Opponent-weighted form score
Luzern — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Winterthur Luzern

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Winterthur

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Luzern

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Winterthur ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Luzern
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Winterthur Luzern
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Winterthur Luzern
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Winterthur
Luzern
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Winterthur
vs
Luzern
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Winterthur Luzern
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Winterthur 0.00
Luzern 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Winterthur Luzern
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Winterthur 0.00
Luzern 0.00
Winterthur
Luzern
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LUZ had peak pressure around 81'.
  • LUZ started the game with stronger pressure.
Winterthur Pressure LUZ Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LUZ reached the top pressure at 81' (75.81).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Winterthur Winterthur Home
13 matches
Luzern LUZ Away
Match Record
3
Wins
7
3
Draws
3
7
Losses
3
Goals
18
Goals Scored
30
30
Goals Conceded
18
-12
Goal Difference
+12

Data last updated: 2026-05-16T15:45:23+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Pitch
A. Spagnoli
Switzerland
75 A. Spagnoli
T. Citherlet
Switzerland
33 T. Citherlet
R. Arnold
Switzerland
16 R. Arnold
L. Lüthi
Switzerland
21 L. Lüthi
R. Smith
Switzerland
3 R. Smith
E. Essiam
Substitution
Ghana
6 E. Essiam
L. Zuffi
Substitution
Switzerland
7 L. Zuffi
S. Cueni
Switzerland
44 S. Cueni
F. Rohner
Substitution
Switzerland
27 F. Rohner
R. Buess
Substitution
Switzerland
9 R. Buess
L. Maksutaj
Substitution
Kosovo
35 L. Maksutaj
Pitch
P. Loretz
Switzerland
1 P. Loretz
R. Fernandes
Switzerland
22 R. Fernandes
A. Bajrami
Albania
4 A. Bajrami
S. Knežević
Switzerland
5 S. Knežević
P. Dorn
Germany
20 P. Dorn
M. Di Giusto
Substitution
Switzerland
11 M. Di Giusto
T. Abe
Substitution
Japan
6 T. Abe
T. Owusu
Switzerland
24 T. Owusu
L. Silva Ferreira
Substitution
Portugal
73 L. Silva Ferreira
A. Vasovic
Substitution
Switzerland
19 A. Vasovic
O. Kabwit tshikomb
Substitution
DR Congo
16 O. Kabwit tshikomb

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland · Round 38 · Relegation Round
Stadium :
Stadion Schützenwiese
Capacity :
9450
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Nico Gianforte
Claudio dos Santos
Benjamin Zürcher
Zrinko Prskalo

Statistics

Possession
Winterthur
41%
LUZ
59%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 3
0 Big Chances Created 2
6 Shots 9
25 Dangerous attacks 59
42 Possession 58
1 Corners 6
9 Free kicks 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

0 Assists 2
0 Penalties 1
5 Substitutions 5
19 Throwins 21
14 Dribble Attempts 11
14 Successful Dribbles Percentage 55
81 Ball Safe 80
0 Injuries 1
11 Goal Kicks 6
2 Successful Dribbles 6
7 Goal Attempts 16
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 1
61 Attacks 135

Possession

82 Successful Passes Percentage 86
54 Long Passes 49
8 Key Passes 15
298 Successful Passes 429
29 Successful Long Passes 28
365 Passes 498
54 Successful Long Passes Percentage 57

Defensive

11 Tackles 22
14 Interceptions 8
6 Saves 0

Build-up

9 Total Crosses 22
1 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

1 Offsides 3
7 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Nico Gianforte

Starting XI ▼

75
Antonio Spagnoli
Antonio Spagnoli Goalkeeper
3
Rhodri Smith
Rhodri Smith Defender
6.37
16
Remo Arnold
Remo Arnold Defender
6.5
21
Loïc Lüthi
Loïc Lüthi Defender
6.61
33
Tibault Citherlet
Tibault Citherlet Defender
6.4
6
Emmanuel Essiam
Emmanuel Essiam Midfielder
6.73
99
Nishan Burkart
Nishan Burkart
Attacker58'
6.87
7
Luca Zuffi
Luca Zuffi Midfielder
6.68
23
Pajtim Kasami
Pajtim Kasami
Midfielder74'
6.9
44
Stéphane Cueni
Stéphane Cueni Midfielder
6.59
9
Roman Buess
Roman Buess Attacker
6.66
37
Elias Maluvunu
Elias Maluvunu
Midfielder58'
6.57
27
Fabian Rohner
Fabian Rohner Attacker
6.56
19
Dario Ulrich
Dario Ulrich
Midfielder83'
6.5
35
Leandro Maksutaj
Leandro Maksutaj Attacker
6.44
17
Andrin Hunziker
Andrin Hunziker
Attacker46'
6.95
Referee : Nico Gianforte

Starting XI ▼

1
Pascal Loretz
Pascal Loretz Goalkeeper
6.81
4
Adrian Bajrami
Adrian Bajrami Defender
6.86
5
Stefan Knezevic
Stefan Knezevic Defender
6.62
20
Pius Dorn
Pius Dorn Defender
6.82
22
Rúben Dantas Fernandes
Rúben Dantas Fernandes Defender
7.01
6
Taisei Abe
Taisei Abe Midfielder
6.79
29
Levin Winkler
Levin Winkler
Midfielder80'
6.54
11
Matteo Di Giusto
Matteo Di Giusto Midfielder
7.41
10
Sinan Karweina
Sinan Karweina
Attacker63'
6.62
24
Tyron Owusu
Tyron Owusu Midfielder
6.9
73
Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira
Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira Midfielder
6.6
7
Kevin Spadanuda
Kevin Spadanuda
Midfielder63'
6.86
16
Oscar Kabwit
Oscar Kabwit Attacker
2
7.22
81
Julian Von Moos
Julian Von Moos
Attacker74'
6.62
19
Andrej Vasovic
Andrej Vasovic Attacker
6.72
27
Lars Villiger
Lars Villiger
Attacker74'
6.82

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Stéphane Cueni
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
90'
85'
Event
Stefan Knezevic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Dario Ulrich → Fabian Rohner
10th Substitution
83'
80'
Event
Levin Winkler → Taisei Abe
9th Substitution
Event
Pajtim Kasami → Luca Zuffi
6th Substitution
74'
74'
Event
Julian Von Moos → Oscar Kabwit
7th Substitution
74'
Event
Lars Villiger → Andrej Vasovic
8th Substitution
68'
Event
Oscar Kabwit
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
63'
Event
Sinan Karweina → Matteo Di Giusto
4th Substitution
63'
Event
Kevin Spadanuda → Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira
5th Substitution
Event
Nishan Burkart → Emmanuel Essiam
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Elias Maluvunu → Roman Buess
3rd Substitution
58'
54'
Event
Pius Dorn
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Andrin Hunziker → Leandro Maksutaj
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45+3'
Event
Matteo Di Giusto
GoalkeeperSave
Event
Tibault Citherlet
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
45+1'
39'
Event
Oscar Kabwit
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
2'
Event
Adrian Bajrami
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

88
Attempt Attempt
Lars Villiger's right-footed shot is blocked.
88
Attempt Attempt
Sinan Karweina takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
84
Attempt Attempt
Elias Maluvunu takes a right-footed shot but misses.
84
Attempt Attempt
Sinan Karweina takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
82
Update Update
Dario Ulrich is on, and Fabian Rohner is off.
79
Attempt Attempt
Ruben Dantas takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
79
Update Update
Levin Winkler is on, and Taisei Abe is off.
78
Attempt Attempt
Sinan Karweina takes a right-footed shot but misses.
76
Attempt Attempt
Ruben Dantas takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
73
Attempt Attempt
Elias Maluvunu takes a left-footed shot but misses.
73
Update Update
Pajtim Kasami comes on for Luca Zuffi.
73
Update Update
Julian von Moos comes on for Oscar Tshikomba.
73
Update Update
Lars Villiger replaces Andrej Vasovic.
70
Attempt Attempt
Taisei Abe's right-footed shot is blocked.
70
Attempt Attempt
Andrej Vasovic takes a shot with his right foot, but it is blocked.
69
Attempt Attempt
Oscar Tshikomb scores with a right-footed shot.
68
Attempt Attempt
Oscar Tshikomb scores with a right-footed shot.
68
Attempt Attempt
Pius Dorn's right-footed shot is saved.
66
Attempt Attempt
Elias Maluvunu takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
64
Attempt Attempt
Oscar Tshikomb takes a right-footed shot but misses.
62
Update Update
Sinan Karweina is on, and Matteo Di Giusto is off.
62
Update Update
Kevin Spadanuda is on, and Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira is off.
61
Attempt Attempt
Andrin Hunziker's right-footed shot is blocked.
60
Attempt Attempt
Andrej Vasovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
57
Update Update
Elias Maluvunu is on, and Roman Buess is off.
57
Update Update
Nishan Burkart comes on for Emmanuel Essiam.
56
Attempt Attempt
Oscar Tshikomb takes a right-footed shot but misses.
54
Attempt Attempt
Pius Dorn scores with a right-footed shot.
47
Attempt Attempt
Andrej Vasovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Andrin Hunziker is on, and Leandro Maksutaj is off.
45
Attempt Attempt
Taisei Abe takes a left-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Matteo Di Giusto takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
42
Attempt Attempt
Matteo Di Giusto takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
42
Attempt Attempt
Oscar Tshikomb takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
39
Attempt Attempt
Oscar Tshikomb scores with a left-footed shot.
34
Attempt Attempt
Emmanuel Essiam takes a right-footed shot but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
32
Attempt Attempt
Taisei Abe's right-footed shot is blocked.
28
Attempt Attempt
Matteo Di Giusto takes a right-footed shot but misses.
21
Attempt Attempt
Leandro Maksutaj's left-footed shot is blocked.
18
Attempt Attempt
Roman Buess takes a right-footed shot but misses.
16
Attempt Attempt
Roman Buess takes a left-footed shot, but it misses the target.
14
Attempt Attempt
Andrej Vasovic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
13
Attempt Attempt
Andrej Vasovic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
12
Attempt Attempt
Luca Zuffi's left-footed shot is blocked.
11
Attempt Attempt
Matteo Di Giusto takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
8
Attempt Attempt
Emmanuel Essiam's right-footed shot is blocked.
2
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Adrian Bajrami receives a yellow card.
1
Attempt Attempt
Taisei Abe takes a left-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Luzern completed a controlled away win against Winterthur finishing 0-3 after leading 0-1 at the interval. Possession favored Luzern at 58 percent and the single red card to Winterthur shaped the later stages. With no expected goals data available the result stood as the primary performance indicator. The significant deviation of 31.6 percent confirmed Luzern exceeded baseline expectations while efficiency stayed consistent. The outcome matched the stronger team projection and the red card created measurable structural effects on Winterthur. Overall the contest reflected the pre-match hierarchy without additional distortions beyond the dismissal.

Winterthur vs Luzern preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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