Westerlo vs Sporting Charleroi Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium

Het Kuipje Sun, 5 Apr - 4:30 PM

Pro League

Westerlo KVC

Sporting Charleroi SPC

Full Time Sun, 5 Apr 4:30 PM

Round 1 Conference League Play-off Group

Nacho Ferri - 79'

Emin Bayram - 34' (P)

Étienne Camara 60'

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished, with Westerlo securing a 2-0 victory over Sporting Charleroi. The hosts led 1-0 at halftime before adding a second goal to comfortably seal the win. This outcome was not aligned with the pre-match market, as Charleroi entered the fixture as slight favorites with a 38.1% implied win probability. Westerlo held a 35.4% chance to win alongside a 26.5% probability for a draw. Ultimately, Westerlo's triumph represented a significant deviation from those initial expectations. While expected goals (xG) data was unavailable to determine if the final scoreline was consistent with the quality of chances created, Westerlo effectively managed the tempo, holding a slight edge with 53% possession to Charleroi's 47%. The match's dynamic was heavily influenced by a red card issued to Sporting Charleroi. This dismissal created a clear second-half distortion, severely hampering the visitors' chances of finding an equalizer. Even without xG metrics, the overall efficiency shift was deemed to be in line with the actual events on the pitch, allowing Westerlo to capitalize on their numerical advantage and comfortably secure the win.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Westerlo showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

N. Verboomen

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Hillaert

1st Assistant

L. Jans

2nd Assistant

W. De Cremer

4th Official

I. Charai

H. Cornelis

1.38

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.1

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

10 - 7 - 13

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Westerlo

35.35%

Draw

26.52%

Sporting Charleroi

38.13%

Team Power Ranking

70.61

68.66

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Westerlo

Sporting Charleroi

Power Score

70.61

68.66

League Position

Global Rank

175

220

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Westerlo — Opponent-weighted form score

Sporting Charleroi — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Westerlo Sporting Charleroi

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Westerlo

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Sporting Charleroi

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Westerlo ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Sporting Charleroi

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

33.49

20.74

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

20.74

33.49

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Westerlo +1.21 Efficiency Index

Sporting Charleroi -1.21 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Westerlo

Sporting Charleroi

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Westerlo ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Sporting Charleroi

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Westerlo Sporting Charleroi

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

1.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Westerlo Sporting Charleroi

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 1.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Westerlo

Sporting Charleroi

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Westerlo

Sporting Charleroi

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Westerlo Sporting Charleroi

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Westerlo Sporting Charleroi

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Westerlo

Sporting Charleroi

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 30 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Westerlo KVC Home

30 matches

Sporting Charleroi SPC Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-4

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:05:53+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

99 A. Jungdal

22 B. Reynolds

40 E. Bayram

33 R. Neustädter

4 A. Lapage

34 D. Haspolat

46 A. Piedfort

38 S. Saito

13 I. Sakamoto

77 J. Alcócer

90 I. Ferri Julià

30 M. Kone

24 M. Nzita

95 C. keita

4 A. Ousou

3 K. Van Den Kerkhof

5 E. Camara

22 Y. Titraoui

10 P. Guiagon

14 P. Pflücke

17 A. Bernier

21 A. Scheidler

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 05, 2026, 04:30 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 1 · Conference League Play-off Group

Stadium :

Het Kuipje

Capacity :

8182

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Mathias Hillaert

Lennert Jans

Nathan Verboomen

Wesli De Cremer

Statistics

Possession

KVC

52%

SPC

48%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0

3 Big Chances Created 2

6 Shots 2

55 Dangerous attacks 55

53 Possession 47

5 Corners 5

13 Free kicks 10

2 Yellow Cards 2

0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

1 Injuries 0

11 Goal Attempts 6

6 Goal Kicks 9

20 Throwins 16

27 Dribble Attempts 10

94 Ball Safe 84

0 Hit Woodwork 1

1 Penalties 0

5 Substitutions 3

1 Assists 0

22 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60

6 Successful Dribbles 6

Attacking

101 Attacks 83

2 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

87 Successful Passes Percentage 84

427 Successful Passes 367

490 Passes 437

10 Key Passes 7

47 Long Passes 51

64 Successful Long Passes Percentage 65

30 Successful Long Passes 33

Defensive

17 Tackles 29

11 Interceptions 10

4 Saves 3

Build-up

21 Total Crosses 15

9 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

0 Offsides 6

10 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Nathan Verboomen

Manager ▼

I. Charai Coach

Starting XI ▼

Andreas Jungdal Goalkeeper

Amando Lapage Defender

Bryan Reynolds Defender

Roman Neustädter Defender

Emin Bayram Defender

Isa Sakamoto Midfielder

Thomas Van den Keybus

Midfielder84'

Doğucan Haspolat Midfielder

Shunsuke Saito Midfielder

Dylan Ourega

Defender62'

Arthur Piedfort Midfielder

Sergiy Sydorchuk

Midfielder83'

Josimar Alcócer Midfielder

Naoufal Bohamdi-Kamoni

Attacker76'

Nacho Ferri Attacker

Fernand Goure

Attacker84'

Substitutes ▼

Dylan Ourega

Defender62'

Naoufal Bohamdi-Kamoni

Attacker76'

Sergiy Sydorchuk

Midfielder83'

Thomas Van den Keybus

Midfielder84'

Fernand Goure

Attacker84'

Bench ▼

Koen Van Langendonck Goalkeeper

Clinton Nsiala Defender

Lucas Mbamba Defender

Raf Smekens Midfielder

Afonso Patrão Attacker

Referee : Nathan Verboomen