West Ham United vs Leeds United Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 FA Cup, England
London Stadium Sun, 5 Apr - 3:30 PM
FA Cup
West Ham United WHU
2 – 2
Leeds United LEE
Full Time: Finished on Penalties Sun, 5 Apr 3:30 PM
Quarter Finals
Axel Disasi - 90+6'
Mateus Fernandes - 90+3'
Pablo  - 8'
Tomáš Souček - 6'
Kyle Walker-Peters - 4'
Goal
|
Goal
Dominic Calvert-Lewin - 75' (P), 3'
Ao Tanaka - 26'
Pascal Struijk - 9'
Wilfried Gnonto - 7'
Brenden Aaronson - 5'

CONTEXT

The match between West Ham United and Leeds United has finished, with West Ham securing a 2-1 victory. Following a tightly contested first half that ended scoreless, the hosts found the breakthrough in the second period to claim all three points. The outcome defied pre-match expectations, resulting in a significant deviation for West Ham United. Leeds United entered the contest as the stronger side, holding a 40.6% probability of winning compared to West Ham's 31.7% and a 27.7% chance of a draw. Consequently, the final result did not align with the pre-match market predictions. On the pitch, West Ham controlled the overall tempo, maintaining 55% possession against the visitors' 45%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, so it is unknown whether the final scoreline aligned with the underlying chance creation. However, the overall finishing efficiency shift remained in line with general parameters. The match was a disciplined affair that proceeded without any red cards, ensuring no drastic event impacts altered the balance of play.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: West Ham United showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

C. Pawson

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

P. Bankes

4th Official

L. Betts

1st Assistant

M. Wilkes

2nd Assistant

West Ham United N. Simões Espírito Santo
N. Simões Espírito Santo
VS
Leeds United D. Farke
D. Farke
2.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.33
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brentford Rank: 89 D
Burton Albion Rank: 68 W
Queens Park Rangers Rank: 67 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Norwich City Rank: 72 W
Birmingham City Rank: 69 D
Derby County Rank: 70 W
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 4 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home West Ham United
31.71%
Draw
27.74%
Away Leeds United
40.55%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
82.39
85.85
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
West Ham United
Leeds United
Power Score
82.39
85.85
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
45
29

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
West Ham United — Opponent-weighted form score
Leeds United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) West Ham United Leeds United

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

West Ham United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Leeds United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

West Ham United ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Leeds United
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
47.00
53.11
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
53.11
47.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
West Ham United -0.50 Efficiency Index
vs
Leeds United +0.50 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
West Ham United
Leeds United
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

West Ham United ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Leeds United
Created Set-piece attacking threat
West Ham United Leeds United
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
4.00 6.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
West Ham United Leeds United
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
6.00 4.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
West Ham United
Leeds United
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
West Ham United
vs
Leeds United
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
West Ham United Leeds United
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
West Ham United 0.29
Leeds United 0.36
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
West Ham United Leeds United
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
West Ham United 0.10
Leeds United 0.05
West Ham United
Leeds United
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 16 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

West Ham United WHU Home
16 matches
Leeds United LEE Away
Match Record
6
Wins
6
4
Draws
4
6
Losses
6
Goals
23
Goals Scored
23
23
Goals Conceded
23
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:05:08+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
A. Areola
Substitution
France
23 A. Areola
K. Walker-Peters
England
2 K. Walker-Peters
A. Disasi
France
4 A. Disasi
M. Kilman
England
3 M. Kilman
E. Diouf
Substitution
Senegal
12 E. Diouf
S. Magassa
Substitution
France
27 S. Magassa
F. Potts
Substitution
England
32 F. Potts
A. Traoré Diarra
Substitution
Spain
17 A. Traoré Diarra
M. Espanha Fernandes
Portugal
18 M. Espanha Fernandes
J. Bowen
England
20 J. Bowen
V. Castellanos Giménez
Substitution
Argentina
11 V. Castellanos Giménez
Pitch
L. Estella Perri
Brazil
1 L. Estella Perri
P. Struijk
Netherlands
5 P. Struijk
J. Bijol
Slovenia
15 J. Bijol
J. Rodon
Substitution
Wales
6 J. Rodon
J. Justin
England
24 J. Justin
A. Tanaka
Substitution
Japan
22 A. Tanaka
E. Ampadu
Wales
4 E. Ampadu
J. Bogle
Substitution
England
2 J. Bogle
N. Okafor
Substitution
Switzerland
19 N. Okafor
A. Stach
Substitution
Germany
18 A. Stach
L. Nmecha
Substitution
Germany
14 L. Nmecha

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 05, 2026, 03:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 FA Cup, England · Quarter Finals
Stadium :
London Stadium
Capacity :
59623
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Peter Bankes
Lee Betts
Matthew Wilkes
Craig Pawson

Statistics

Possession
WHU
55%
LEE
45%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
5 Big Chances Created 4
9 Shots 8
77 Dangerous attacks 58
55 Possession 45
4 Corners 5
11 Free kicks 27
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

28 Dribble Attempts 19
57 Successful Dribbles Percentage 32
25 Throwins 19
15 Goal Attempts 14
107 Ball Safe 93
16 Successful Dribbles 6
1 Assists 1
13 Goal Kicks 8
6 Substitutions 5
3 Hit Woodwork 0
2 Injuries 3
0 Penalties 1

Attacking

134 Attacks 131
3 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

494 Successful Passes 377
604 Passes 491
80 Long Passes 70
16 Key Passes 11
82 Successful Passes Percentage 77
29 Successful Long Passes 28
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40

Defensive

24 Tackles 23
77 Duels Won 76
5 Saves 4
6 Interceptions 14

Build-up

38 Total Crosses 23
16 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

20 Fouls 11
8 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Craig Pawson

Starting XI ▼

23
Alphonse Areola
Alphonse Areola Goalkeeper
49
Finlay Herrick
Finlay Herrick
Goalkeeper120'
2
Kyle Walker-Peters
Kyle Walker-Peters Defender
3
Maximilian Kilman
Maximilian Kilman Defender
4
Axel Disasi
Axel Disasi Defender
12
El Hadji Malick Diouf
El Hadji Malick Diouf Defender
30
Oliver Scarles
Oliver Scarles
Defender106'
17
Adama Traoré
Adama Traoré Midfielder
63
Ezra Mayers
Ezra Mayers
Defender120+5'
18
Mateus Fernandes
Mateus Fernandes Midfielder
20
Jarrod Bowen
Jarrod Bowen Midfielder
27
Soungoutou Magassa
Soungoutou Magassa Midfielder
19
Pablo
Pablo
Attacker46'
32
Freddie Potts
Freddie Potts Midfielder
28
Tomáš Souček
Tomáš Souček
Midfielder46'
11
Taty Castellanos
Taty Castellanos Attacker
55
Mohamadou Kanté
Mohamadou Kanté
Midfielder106'
Referee : Craig Pawson

Starting XI ▼

1
Lucas Perri
Lucas Perri Goalkeeper
5
Pascal Struijk
Pascal Struijk Defender
6
Joe Rodon
Joe Rodon Defender
23
Sebastiaan Bornauw
Sebastiaan Bornauw
Defender52'
15
Jaka Bijol
Jaka Bijol Defender
2
Jayden Bogle
Jayden Bogle Midfielder
10
Joël Piroe
Joël Piroe
Attacker106'
4
Ethan Ampadu
Ethan Ampadu Midfielder
22
Ao Tanaka
Ao Tanaka Midfielder
44
Ilia Gruev
Ilia Gruev
Midfielder69'
24
James Justin
James Justin Midfielder
14
Lukas Nmecha
Lukas Nmecha Attacker
9
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Attacker69'
18
Anton Stach
Anton Stach Attacker
11
Brenden Aaronson
Brenden Aaronson
Midfielder38'
19
Noah Okafor
Noah Okafor Attacker
29
Wilfried Gnonto
Wilfried Gnonto
Attacker69'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ezra Mayers → Adama Traoré
12th Substitution
120+5'
Event
Finlay Herrick → Alphonse Areola
11th Substitution
120'
Event
Mohamadou Kanté → Taty Castellanos
8th Substitution
106'
Event
Oliver Scarles → El Hadji Malick Diouf
10th Substitution
106'
106'
Event
Joël Piroe → Jayden Bogle
9th Substitution
Event
Kyle Walker-Peters
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
105+2'
Event
Taty Castellanos
Goal disallowed
92'
Event
Axel Disasi
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
90+6'
Event
Mateus Fernandes
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
90+3'
90+1'
Event
Jayden Bogle
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
75'
Event
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Maximilian Kilman
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
74'
73'
Event
Taty Castellanos
Penalty awarded
69'
Event
Ilia Gruev → Ao Tanaka
6th Substitution
69'
Event
Wilfried Gnonto → Noah Okafor
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Dominic Calvert-Lewin → Lukas Nmecha
7th Substitution
52'
Event
Sebastiaan Bornauw → Joe Rodon
4th Substitution
47'
Event
Ethan Ampadu
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Pablo  → Soungoutou Magassa
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Tomáš Souček → Freddie Potts
3rd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
40'
Event
Lukas Nmecha
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
38'
Event
Brenden Aaronson → Anton Stach
1st Substitution
26'
Event
Ao Tanaka
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
9'
Event
Pascal Struijk
Scored
Event
Pablo 
GoalkeeperSave
8'
7'
Event
Wilfried Gnonto
Scored
Event
Tomáš Souček
Scored
6'
5'
Event
Brenden Aaronson
Scored
Event
Kyle Walker-Peters
Scored
4'
3'
Event
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Scored
Event
Jarrod Bowen
GoalkeeperSave
2'
1'
Event
Joël Piroe
GoalkeeperSave

Match Commentary

120
Update Update
Foul committed by Ethan Ampadu of Leeds United.
120
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of added time.
120
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for West Ham United: Finlay Herrick comes on for Alphonse Areola due to an injury.
120
Corner Corner
Penalty saved! Lucas Perri from Leeds United saves a left-footed shot from Jarrod Bowen of West Ham United, which was aimed at the bottom right corner.
120
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Tomás Soucek scores for West Ham United with a right-footed shot into the bottom left corner. The match remains 2-2, and West Ham United now have 2 penalties scored.
120
Corner Corner
Penalty saved! Lucas Perri from Leeds United saves Pablo's right-footed shot, which was aimed at the bottom left corner.
120
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Wilfried Gnonto scores for Leeds United with a right-footed shot into the top left corner. The match remains 2-2, and Leeds United now have 3 penalties scored.
120
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Pascal Struijk scores for Leeds United with a left-footed shot into the bottom right corner. The match remains 2-2, and Leeds United now have 4 penalties scored.
120
Corner Corner
Penalty saved! Joël Piroe's left-footed shot for Leeds United is saved in the bottom left corner by Finlay Herrick of West Ham United.
120
Update Update
Mohamadou Kanté from West Ham United wins a free kick in the attacking half.
120
Update Update
Second half extra time ends with the match finishing 2-2 between West Ham United and Leeds United.
120
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for West Ham United: Ezra Mayers comes on for Adama Traoré.
120
Update Update
Penalty shootout begins after the match finishes 2-2.
120
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Kyle Walker-Peters scores for West Ham United with a right-footed shot. The match remains 2-2, and West Ham United now have 1 penalty scored.
120
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Dominic Calvert-Lewin scores for Leeds United with a right-footed shot into the high center of the goal. The match remains 2-2, and Leeds United now have 1 penalty scored.
120
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Brenden Aaronson scores for Leeds United with a right-footed shot into the bottom right corner. The match remains 2-2, and Leeds United now have 2 penalties scored.
120
Update Update
Penalty shootout ends with Leeds United winning 4-2 on penalties after a 2-2 draw.
116
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Alphonse Areola of West Ham United.
111
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Mohamadou Kanté from West Ham United takes a left-footed shot from the center of the box but misses to the left.
111
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Mohamadou Kanté from West Ham United takes a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it goes to the left.
110
Attempt Attempt
Maximilian Kilman's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
109
Update Update
Foul committed by Brenden Aaronson of Leeds United.
109
Update Update
Mateus Fernandes from West Ham United wins a free kick in the defensive half.
108
Update Update
Jaka Bijol from Leeds United wins a free kick in the defensive half.
108
Update Update
Foul committed by Pablo of West Ham United.
105
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. El Hadji Malick Diouf of West Ham United has a left-footed shot from the left side of the box that goes close but misses to the left. He was assisted by Adama Traoré after a quick counter-attack.
105
Update Update
Foul committed by Kyle Walker-Peters for West Ham United.
105
Update Update
Wilfried Gnonto wins a free kick for Leeds United on the left wing.
105
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for West Ham United: Ollie Scarles comes on for El Hadji Malick Diouf.
105
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 2 minutes of added time.
105
Update Update
Foul committed by Jarrod Bowen of West Ham United.
105
Update Update
Wilfried Gnonto of Leeds United wins a free kick in the defensive half.
105
Update Update
First half of extra time ends with the score at 2-2 between West Ham United and Leeds United.
105
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kyle Walker-Peters of West Ham United receives a yellow card for a foul.
105
Update Update
Second half extra time begins after the match finishes 2-2.
105
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for West Ham United: Mohamadou Kanté comes on for Valentín Castellanos.
105
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for West Ham United: Ollie Scarles comes on for El Hadji Malick Diouf.
103
Update Update
Jarrod Bowen of West Ham United is caught offside.
103
Update Update
Jaka Bijol from Leeds United wins a free kick on the right wing.
103
Update Update
Foul committed by Pablo of West Ham United.
101
Update Update
Pablo from West Ham United is caught offside.
101
Attempt Attempt
Jarrod Bowen from West Ham United hits the left post with a left-footed shot from outside the box, assisted by Valentín Castellanos.
100
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Valentín Castellanos from West Ham United has a right-footed shot from the center of the box that is saved.
99
Attempt Attempt
Ilia Gruev from Leeds United misses a left-footed shot from the left side of the box, sending it just to the left.
95
Corner Corner
Kyle Walker-Peters' right-footed shot from the right side of the box is saved in the bottom left corner by Lucas Perri. The attempt was assisted by Adama Traoré's cross.
93
Attempt Attempt
Wilfried Gnonto from Leeds United misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, sending it high and wide to the right.
93
Attempt Attempt
James Justin's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
92
Update Update
VAR decision confirms no goal. The match remains 2-2 between West Ham United and Leeds United.
92
Update Update
VAR decision confirms no goal after the match finishes 2-2 between West Ham United and Leeds United.
91
Update Update
Goal by Valentín Castellanos for West Ham United is overturned after a VAR review.
90
Update Update
Adama Traoré wins a free kick for West Ham United on the left wing.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Jayden Bogle of Leeds United.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Mateus Fernandes of West Ham United.
90
Update Update
Brenden Aaronson from Leeds United wins a free kick in the attacking half.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! West Ham United 1, Leeds United 2. Mateus Fernandes scores for West Ham United with a right-footed shot from very close range into the high center of the goal.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with the match finishing 2-2 between West Ham United and Leeds United.
90
Update Update
Brenden Aaronson of Leeds United wins a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jayden Bogle of Leeds United receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Pascal Struijk of Leeds United.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jarrod Bowen of West Ham United hits the left post with a left-footed shot from outside the box, assisted by Adama Traoré's cross.
90
Update Update
Pablo from West Ham United wins a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by El Hadji Malick Diouf of West Ham United.
90
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Dominic Calvert-Lewin's header from the center of the box is saved in the top left corner by Alphonse Areola. The chance was assisted by Ilia Gruev's cross.
90
Update Update
Wilfried Gnonto of Leeds United wins a free kick on the left wing.
90
Update Update
Foul by Mateus Fernandes of West Ham United.
90
Update Update
Pablo from West Ham United misses an attempt with a header from the center of the box, sending it just a bit too high. El Hadji Malick Diouf provided the assist with a cross after a set piece situation.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 11 minutes of added time.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Axel Disasi scores for West Ham United with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom left corner, assisted by Adama Traoré's cross. The match is now 2-2.
90
Update Update
First half of extra time begins after the match finishes 2-2.
89
Attempt Attempt
Jayden Bogle from Leeds United misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, sending it too high. Brenden Aaronson provided the assist after a quick counter-attack.
88
Update Update
Mateus Fernandes from West Ham United wins a free kick on the left wing.
88
Update Update
Foul committed by Brenden Aaronson of Leeds United.
85
Update Update
Jayden Bogle from Leeds United wins a free kick on the right wing.
85
Attempt Attempt
Ethan Ampadu's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Jayden Bogle provided the assist.
85
Update Update
Foul by Mateus Fernandes of West Ham United.
84
Update Update
Ilia Gruev from Leeds United wins a free kick on the right wing.
84
Update Update
Foul committed by El Hadji Malick Diouf of West Ham United.
83
Corner Corner
Leeds United win a corner after Kyle Walker-Peters concedes.
81
Attempt Attempt
Wilfried Gnonto's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. Pascal Struijk provided the assist.
81
Attempt Attempt
Sebastiaan Bornauw's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the top center of the goal by Alphonse Areola.
81
Corner Corner
Leeds United win a corner after Alphonse Areola concedes.
79
Attempt Attempt
Wilfried Gnonto from Leeds United misses a right-footed shot from the center of the box, sending the ball to the left. He was assisted by Jayden Bogle.
79
Update Update
Pascal Struijk of Leeds United wins a free kick in the defensive half.
79
Update Update
Foul committed by Pablo of West Ham United.
79
Update Update
Foul committed by Pablo of West Ham United.
78
Update Update
Foul committed by Axel Disasi of West Ham United.
78
Update Update
Wilfried Gnonto wins a free kick for Leeds United in the defensive half.
77
Corner Corner
West Ham United win a corner after Jayden Bogle concedes.
75
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Dominic Calvert-Lewin scores for Leeds United with a right-footed shot into the bottom left corner. The match remains 0-2.
74
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Maximilian Kilman of West Ham United receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
73
Update Update
VAR decision results in a penalty for Leeds United.
71
Update Update
Leeds United are awarded a penalty after Brenden Aaronson is fouled in the penalty area.
71
Update Update
Maximilian Kilman of West Ham United concedes a penalty after committing a foul in the penalty area.
71
Attempt Attempt
Pascal Struijk from Leeds United misses an attempt with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, sending it too high. He was assisted by Ilia Gruev, who provided a cross after a set piece situation.
70
Update Update
Wilfried Gnonto wins a free kick for Leeds United on the left wing.
70
Update Update
Foul committed by Axel Disasi of West Ham United.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Leeds United: Ilia Gruev comes on for Ao Tanaka.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Leeds United: Wilfried Gnonto comes on for Noah Okafor.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Leeds United: Dominic Calvert-Lewin comes on for Lukas Nmecha.
68
Attempt Attempt
Jarrod Bowen's right-footed shot from the right side of the box for West Ham United is blocked.
67
Corner Corner
West Ham United win a corner after Brenden Aaronson concedes.
65
Update Update
Valentín Castellanos' header from the center of the box is blocked. Jarrod Bowen provided the assist with a cross.
64
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Noah Okafor from Leeds United.
63
Attempt Attempt
Jarrod Bowen's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Kyle Walker-Peters.
63
Corner Corner
West Ham United win a corner after Ao Tanaka concedes.
63
Attempt Attempt
Axel Disasi's right-footed shot from outside the box for West Ham United is blocked.
62
Update Update
Valentín Castellanos of West Ham United hits the right post with a header from the center of the box, assisted by Adama Traoré's cross.
60
Attempt Attempt
Valentín Castellanos from West Ham United misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, sending it too high. Jarrod Bowen provided the assist.
56
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Pablo from West Ham United.
56
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Jaka Bijol from Leeds United.
53
Update Update
Foul committed by Jayden Bogle of Leeds United.
53
Update Update
Mateus Fernandes from West Ham United wins a free kick in the defensive half.
52
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Leeds United: Sebastiaan Bornauw comes on for Joe Rodon due to an injury.
51
Update Update
Valentín Castellanos of West Ham United is caught offside.
48
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Joe Rodon from Leeds United.
47
Update Update
Foul committed by Ethan Ampadu of Leeds United.
47
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ethan Ampadu of Leeds United receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
47
Update Update
Adama Traoré wins a free kick for West Ham United in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 4 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Mateus Fernandes of West Ham United.
45
Attempt Attempt
James Justin from Leeds United misses the attempt with a left-footed shot from the left side of the box, sending it high and wide to the right. Pascal Struijk provided the assist.
45
Update Update
Ethan Ampadu wins a free kick for Leeds United in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
First half ends with Leeds United leading 1-0 against West Ham United.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at West Ham United 0, Leeds United 1.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for West Ham United: Pablo comes on for Soungoutou Magassa.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for West Ham United: Tomás Soucek comes on for Freddie Potts.
44
Update Update
Foul committed by Lukas Nmecha of Leeds United.
44
Attempt Attempt
Valentín Castellanos from West Ham United misses an attempt, sending a left-footed shot from the center of the box over the bar. He was assisted by El Hadji Malick Diouf's cross.
44
Update Update
Axel Disasi wins a free kick for West Ham United in their defensive half.
40
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Axel Disasi of West Ham United.
40
Update Update
West Ham United are penalized for offside as Mateus Fernandes is caught in an offside position.
40
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lukas Nmecha of Leeds United receives a yellow card for a foul.
40
Attempt Attempt
Jarrod Bowen's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Freddie Potts.
38
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Leeds United: Brenden Aaronson comes on for Anton Stach due to an injury.
38
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Anton Stach of Leeds United.
38
Attempt Attempt
Adama Traoré from West Ham United misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from a tough angle on the right, sending it high and wide to the right. He was assisted by Maximilian Kilman with a cross.
37
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Nmecha from Leeds United misses an attempt with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, sending it too high. Pascal Struijk provided the assist.
34
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Anton Stach from Leeds United.
33
Corner Corner
Leeds United win a corner after Alphonse Areola concedes.
33
Attempt Attempt
Anton Stach's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is saved in the center of the goal by Alphonse Areola. The attempt was assisted by Noah Okafor.
28
Update Update
Freddie Potts from West Ham United wins a free kick in the defensive half.
28
Update Update
Foul by Ao Tanaka of Leeds United.
26
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Leeds United takes the lead 1-0 with Ao Tanaka scoring from the center of the box with a left-footed shot to the high center of the goal, assisted by Noah Okafor.
24
Update Update
Foul committed by Pascal Struijk of Leeds United.
24
Update Update
Freddie Potts from West Ham United is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
23
Corner Corner
Leeds United win a corner after Kyle Walker-Peters concedes.
22
Update Update
Joe Rodon of Leeds United wins a free kick on the right wing.
22
Update Update
Valentín Castellanos commits dangerous play for West Ham United.
21
Attempt Attempt
Jayden Bogle's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked.
20
Update Update
Mateus Fernandes of West Ham United wins a free kick in the defensive half.
20
Update Update
Foul committed by James Justin of Leeds United.
20
Attempt Attempt
Anton Stach's right-footed shot from over 35 yards is blocked.
19
Update Update
Lukas Nmecha from Leeds United wins a free kick in the attacking half.
19
Update Update
Foul committed by Maximilian Kilman of West Ham United.
16
Update Update
Valentín Castellanos of West Ham United is caught offside.
14
Update Update
James Justin from Leeds United wins a free kick on the left wing.
14
Update Update
Foul by Adama Traoré for West Ham United.
13
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Jarrod Bowen of West Ham United has a left-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it's saved in the bottom left corner by Lucas Perri of Leeds United, with an assist from Adama Traoré.
13
Update Update
Valentín Castellanos commits dangerous play for West Ham United.
13
Update Update
Jaka Bijol from Leeds United wins a free kick in the defensive half.
11
Update Update
Noah Okafor from Leeds United wins a free kick in the defensive half.
11
Update Update
Noah Okafor from Leeds United wins a free kick in the defensive half.
9
Update Update
Jaka Bijol from Leeds United wins a free kick in the defensive half.
9
Update Update
Foul by Valentín Castellanos for West Ham United.
8
Corner Corner
Maximilian Kilman of West Ham United misses a header from the center of the box to the right after a corner.
8
Update Update
Offside for West Ham United. Soungoutou Magassa is flagged for offside.
7
Corner Corner
West Ham United wins a corner after Jayden Bogle concedes.
6
Corner Corner
Valentín Castellanos of West Ham United has his right-footed shot from the left side of the six-yard box saved in the bottom left corner by Lucas Perri of Leeds United. The attempt was assisted by Jarrod Bowen.
4
Attempt Attempt
Anton Stach from Leeds United misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box, sending it high and wide to the left.
2
Corner Corner
Ethan Ampadu's right-footed shot from the center of the box is saved in the top right corner by Alphonse Areola.
2
Corner Corner
Leeds United win a corner after Alphonse Areola concedes.
2
Corner Corner
Noah Okafor's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is saved in the bottom right corner by Alphonse Areola.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: West Ham United exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.