West Bromwich Albion vs Millwall Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
The Hawthorns Fri, 10 Apr - 7:00 PM
Championship
West Bromwich Albion WBA
0 – 0
Millwall MLW
Full Time Fri, 10 Apr 7:00 PM
Round 42 Regular Season

CONTEXT

The match between West Bromwich Albion and Millwall is now finished, ending in a 0-0 draw at full time. Both teams were level at half-time with no goals scored, and the stalemate remained unbroken despite late pressure. Pre-match expectations pointed toward a West Bromwich Albion victory, with forecasts assigning them the highest likelihood of success. The 0-0 outcome therefore marked a significant deviation, particularly for Millwall, who were identified as the stronger side overall yet entered the fixture as underdogs. They secured a valuable point through disciplined defending, preventing the home side from capitalizing on their territorial edge. West Bromwich Albion held 60 percent possession to Millwall’s 40 percent but generated no decisive chances. No expected goals data was available to measure alignment, though the result did not match the pre-match projection. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations, and the contest passed without red cards or other major disruptive events.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Millwall showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

L. Smith

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. James

1st Assistant

M. Smith

2nd Assistant

Dean Whitestone

4th Official

West Bromwich Albion J. Morrison
J. Morrison
VS
Millwall A. Neil
A. Neil
0.97
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.81
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Blackburn Rovers Rank: D
Wrexham Rank: D
Bristol City Rank: W
Hull City Rank: W
Southampton Rank: D
Sheffield United Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Norwich City Rank: L
Middlesbrough Rank: W
Ipswich Town Rank: D
Blackburn Rovers Rank: L
Derby County Rank: W
Hull City Rank: W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 7 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home West Bromwich Albion
41.56%
Draw
28.98%
Away Millwall
29.45%

Movement

Changes since opening
West Bromwich Albion
+37.09%
Draw
-62.95%
Millwall
+25.84%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
25.8
33.26
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
West Bromwich Albion
Millwall
Power Score
25.8
33.26
League Position
20
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
West Bromwich Albion — Opponent-weighted form score
Millwall — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) West Bromwich Albion Millwall

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

West Bromwich Albion

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Millwall

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

West Bromwich Albion ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Millwall
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.00
32.38
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.38
33.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
West Bromwich Albion +0.06 Efficiency Index
vs
Millwall -0.06 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
West Bromwich Albion
Millwall
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

West Bromwich Albion ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Millwall
Created Set-piece attacking threat
West Bromwich Albion Millwall
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
West Bromwich Albion Millwall
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
West Bromwich Albion
Millwall
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
West Bromwich Albion
vs
Millwall
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
West Bromwich Albion Millwall
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
West Bromwich Albion 0.21
Millwall 0.28
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
West Bromwich Albion Millwall
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
West Bromwich Albion 0.00
Millwall 0.00
West Bromwich Albion
Millwall
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • WBA had peak pressure around 85'.
  • WBA started the game with stronger pressure.
WBA Pressure MLW Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: WBA reached the top pressure at 85' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 14 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

West Bromwich Albion WBA Home
14 matches
Millwall MLW Away
Match Record
2
Wins
5
7
Draws
7
5
Losses
2
Goals
10
Goals Scored
15
15
Goals Conceded
10
-5
Goal Difference
+5

Data last updated: 2026-04-11T00:03:04+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. O’Leary
England
1 M. O’Leary
D. Imray
England
30 D. Imray
N. Phillips
England
3 N. Phillips
G. Campbell
United States
6 G. Campbell
C. Styles
Hungary
4 C. Styles
J. Molumby
Republic of Ireland
8 J. Molumby
O. Diakite
Mali
17 O. Diakite
A. Mowatt
England
27 A. Mowatt
I. Price
Northern Ireland
21 I. Price
D. Dike
Substitution
United States
12 D. Dike
A. Heggebø
Substitution
Norway
19 A. Heggebø
Pitch
A. Patterson
England
13 A. Patterson
Z. Norton Sturge
Substitution
England
3 Z. Norton Sturge
J. Cooper
England
5 J. Cooper
C. Taylor
England
6 C. Taylor
T. Crama
France
4 T. Crama
C. Neghli
Algeria
10 C. Neghli
C. De Norre
Substitution
Belgium
24 C. De Norre
T. Ballo
Substitution
Austria
7 T. Ballo
M. Ivanović
Serbia
9 M. Ivanović
F. Azeez
Substitution
England
11 F. Azeez
J. Coburn
Substitution
England
19 J. Coburn

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 10, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 42 · Regular Season
Stadium :
The Hawthorns
Capacity :
26445
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Lewis Smith
Alex James
Matthew Smith
Dean Whitestone

Statistics

Possession
WBA
57%
MLW
43%

Top Statistics

3 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 3
76 Dangerous attacks 39
60 Possession 40
7 Corners 5
22 Free kicks 6
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

27 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67
8 Goal Kicks 15
11 Dribble Attempts 9
20 Throwins 16
31 Successful Headers 23
89 Ball Safe 87
9 Goal Attempts 9
3 Successful Dribbles 6
0 Hit Woodwork 2
2 Substitutions 6

Attacking

122 Attacks 82
3 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

80 Successful Passes Percentage 69
26 Successful Long Passes 24
472 Passes 312
60 Long Passes 73
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
379 Successful Passes 215
11 Key Passes 8

Defensive

62 Duels Won 45
8 Tackles 11
6 Interceptions 7
3 Saves 1

Build-up

30 Total Crosses 22
8 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

6 Fouls 22
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Lewis Smith

Starting XI ▼

1
Max O'Leary
Max O'Leary Goalkeeper
3
Nat Phillips
Nat Phillips Defender
4
Callum Styles
Callum Styles Defender
6
George Campbell
George Campbell Defender
30
D. Imray
D. Imray Defender
8
Jayson Molumby
Jayson Molumby Midfielder
17
Ousmane Diakité
Ousmane Diakité Midfielder
21
Isaac Price
Isaac Price Midfielder
27
Alex Mowatt
Alex Mowatt Midfielder
12
Daryl Dike
Daryl Dike Attacker
49
Eseosa Sule
Eseosa Sule
Attacker84'
19
Aune Heggebø
Aune Heggebø Attacker
9
Josh Maja
Josh Maja
Attacker68'
Referee : Lewis Smith

Starting XI ▼

13
Anthony Patterson
Anthony Patterson Goalkeeper
3
Zak Sturge
Zak Sturge Defender
23
Joe Bryan
Joe Bryan
Defender73'
4
Tristan Crama
Tristan Crama Defender
5
Jake Cooper
Jake Cooper Defender
6
Caleb Taylor
Caleb Taylor Defender
7
Thierno Ballo
Thierno Ballo Midfielder
22
Tom Watson
Tom Watson
Attacker73'
9
Mihailo Ivanović
Mihailo Ivanović Midfielder
10
Camiel Neghli
Camiel Neghli Midfielder
11
Femi Azeez
Femi Azeez Midfielder
67
Barry Bannan
Barry Bannan
Midfielder90+5'
24
Casper De Norre
Casper De Norre Midfielder
49
Derek Mazou-Sacko
Derek Mazou-Sacko
Midfielder65'
19
Josh Coburn
Josh Coburn Attacker
17
Macaulay Langstaff
Macaulay Langstaff
Attacker65'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Mihailo Ivanović
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
Barry Bannan → Femi Azeez
8th Substitution
87'
Event
Danny McNamara  → Joe Bryan
7th Substitution
Event
Eseosa Sule → Daryl Dike 
6th Substitution
84'
73'
Event
Tom Watson → Thierno Ballo
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Joe Bryan → Zak Sturge
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Femi Azeez
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Josh Maja → Aune Heggebø
3rd Substitution
68'
65'
Event
Macaulay Langstaff → Josh Coburn
1st Substitution
65'
Event
Derek Mazou-Sacko → Casper De Norre
2nd Substitution
Event
Alex Mowatt
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
56'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 8 minutes of added time.
90
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Callum Styles of West Bromwich Albion shoots with his left foot from outside the box, but it goes high after the corner.
90
Update Update
Alex Mowatt of West Bromwich Albion won a free kick in defense.
90
Update Update
Macaulay Langstaff from Millwall committed a foul.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Millwall: Barry Bannan replaces Femi Azeez.
90
Update Update
George Campbell of West Bromwich Albion won a free kick in defense.
90
Update Update
Foul by Mihailo Ivanovic of Millwall.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mihailo Ivanovic from Millwall receives a yellow card for a foul.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Millwall: Barry Bannan replaces Femi Azeez.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with the match finishing 0-0 between West Bromwich Albion and Millwall.
89
Update Update
Handball by Dan McNamara of Millwall.
89
Corner Corner
West Bromwich Albion wins a corner after Mihailo Ivanovic concedes.
89
Update Update
Nathaniel Phillips' header from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Alex Mowatt's cross.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to West Bromwich Albion after a concession by Caleb Taylor.
88
Attempt Attempt
Josh Maja's shot for West Bromwich Albion from the left side of the box is blocked. Isaac Price provided the assist.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Millwall: Dan McNamara replaces Joe Bryan due to injury.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for West Bromwich Albion: Eseosa Sule replaces Daryl Dike.
83
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Joe Bryan from Millwall.
83
Corner Corner
Ousmane Diakité of West Bromwich Albion had a missed chance, heading the ball from a few meters out but missing to the left. The assist came from Callum Styles, who delivered a cross after a corner.
82
Corner Corner
West Bromwich Albion wins a corner, conceded by Anthony Patterson.
82
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Jayson Molumby of West Bromwich Albion takes a right-footed shot from close range, but it's saved by Millwall's goalkeeper Anthony Patterson in the center of the goal.
81
Corner Corner
West Bromwich Albion is awarded a corner after Jake Cooper concedes.
81
Corner Corner
Callum Styles from West Bromwich Albion misses a chance, shooting with his left foot from outside the box. The assist came from Isaac Price after a corner.
78
Update Update
Foul committed by Tom Watson of Millwall.
78
Update Update
Danny Imray of West Bromwich Albion won a free kick on the right wing.
77
Update Update
Caleb Taylor of Millwall won a free kick in defense.
77
Update Update
Jayson Molumby of West Bromwich Albion won a free kick in defense.
77
Update Update
Daryl Dike of West Bromwich Albion commits a foul.
77
Update Update
Foul committed by Joe Bryan of Millwall.
75
Update Update
Foul committed by Tom Watson of Millwall.
75
Update Update
Danny Imray of West Bromwich Albion won a free kick in defense.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Millwall: Tom Watson replaces Thierno Ballo.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Millwall: Joe Bryan replaces Zak Sturge.
71
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Femi Azeez of Millwall receives a yellow card for a foul.
71
Update Update
Delay in match - injury Ousmane Diakité - West Bromwich Albion
70
Update Update
Ousmane Diakité from West Bromwich Albion won a free kick in defense.
70
Update Update
Femi Azeez commits a foul for Millwall.
70
Attempt Attempt
Alex Mowatt from West Bromwich Albion has a shot from the center of the box with his left foot, but it's blocked.
70
Update Update
George Campbell from West Bromwich Albion misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, but the ball goes high and wide to the right.
69
Update Update
Macaulay Langstaff commits a foul for Millwall.
69
Update Update
Alex Mowatt of West Bromwich Albion won a free kick in an attacking position.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for West Bromwich Albion: Josh Maja replaces Aune Heggebø.
66
Attempt Attempt
Jayson Molumby of West Bromwich Albion misses a chance with a right-footed shot from outside the box.
66
Update Update
Jayson Molumby of West Bromwich Albion won a free kick in defense.
66
Update Update
Foul committed by Thierno Ballo of Millwall.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Millwall: Derek Mazou-Sacko replaces Casper De Norre.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Millwall: Macaulay Langstaff replaces Josh Coburn.
64
Attempt Attempt
Daryl Dike from West Bromwich Albion missed a chance, heading the ball over the goal from the right side of the six-yard box. The assist came from Alex Mowatt's cross.
63
Update Update
Foul committed by Camiel Neghli of Millwall.
63
Update Update
Ousmane Diakité - West Bromwich Albion - won a free kick in defence.
60
Attempt Attempt
Zak Sturge's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Femi Azeez, who provided the cross.
56
Update Update
Femi Azeez from Millwall won a free kick in defense.
56
Update Update
Foul committed by Alex Mowatt of West Bromwich Albion.
56
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alex Mowatt of West Bromwich Albion receives a yellow card for a foul.
55
Update Update
George Campbell from West Bromwich Albion won a free kick in defense.
55
Update Update
Foul committed by Jake Cooper of Millwall.
54
Corner Corner
Millwall wins a corner after George Campbell concedes.
53
Attempt Attempt
Zak Sturge from Millwall had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, but it went close and missed to the left. Camiel Neghli provided the assist.
52
Update Update
Fouled by Daryl Dike - West Bromwich Albion
52
Update Update
Caleb Taylor - Millwall - won a free kick in defence.
51
Attempt Attempt
Daryl Dike's shot for West Bromwich Albion from the right side of the six-yard box is blocked. Danny Imray provided the assist.
49
Attempt Attempt
Mihailo Ivanovic of Millwall attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the top center of the goal by Max O'Leary of West Bromwich Albion. The assist comes from Thierno Ballo.
49
Update Update
Foul committed by Josh Coburn of Millwall.
49
Update Update
George Campbell of West Bromwich Albion won a free kick in defense.
48
Update Update
Femi Azeez commits a foul against Millwall.
48
Update Update
George Campbell of West Bromwich Albion won a free kick in defense.
47
Corner Corner
Millwall wins a corner after Jayson Molumby concedes.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at 0-0 between West Bromwich Albion and Millwall.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with West Bromwich Albion and Millwall tied at 0-0.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with West Bromwich Albion and Millwall drawing 0-0.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Tristan Crama of Millwall.
45
Update Update
Callum Styles from West Bromwich Albion won a free kick in defense.
42
Attempt Attempt
Tristan Crama's right-footed shot from close range is blocked.
42
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
42
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Millwall after Max O'Leary concedes.
42
Update Update
Callum Styles of West Bromwich Albion won a free kick in defense.
42
Corner Corner
Camiel Neghli of Millwall attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from outside the box, but Max O'Leary of West Bromwich Albion saves it in the top left corner.
41
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Millwall after Nathaniel Phillips concedes.
38
Attempt Attempt
Mihailo Ivanovic from Millwall hits the bar with a right-footed shot from outside the box.
36
Update Update
Foul committed by Jake Cooper of Millwall.
36
Update Update
Daryl Dike from West Bromwich Albion won a free kick on the right wing.
35
Update Update
Daryl Dike of West Bromwich Albion won a free kick on the right wing.
35
Update Update
Femi Azeez commits a foul for Millwall.
35
Update Update
Callum Styles of West Bromwich Albion won a free kick on the left wing.
29
Update Update
Foul committed by Zak Sturge of Millwall.
29
Update Update
Danny Imray of West Bromwich Albion won a free kick in defense.
26
Update Update
Thierno Ballo from Millwall won a free kick in defense.
26
Update Update
Foul committed by Alex Mowatt of West Bromwich Albion.
25
Corner Corner
West Bromwich Albion wins a corner after Femi Azeez concedes.
24
Update Update
Foul committed by Josh Coburn of Millwall.
24
Attempt Attempt
Isaac Price from West Bromwich Albion missed a chance with a right-footed shot from outside the box, assisted by Callum Styles.
24
Update Update
George Campbell of West Bromwich Albion won a free kick in defense.
23
Attempt Attempt
Alex Mowatt's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Isaac Price provided the assist.
21
Update Update
Foul by Ousmane Diakité for West Bromwich Albion.
21
Update Update
Jake Cooper from Millwall won a free kick in defense.
20
Update Update
Aune Heggebø from West Bromwich Albion won a free kick in the attacking zone.
20
Update Update
Femi Azeez commits a foul for Millwall.
18
Corner Corner
Millwall wins a corner after Nathaniel Phillips concedes.
16
Attempt Attempt
Josh Coburn had a missed opportunity for Millwall, shooting with his right foot from a few meters out but missing to the left. Thierno Ballo provided the assist with a cross.
14
Update Update
Alex Mowatt of West Bromwich Albion won a free kick in defense.
14
Update Update
Thierno Ballo commits a foul for Millwall.
12
Attempt Attempt
Aune Heggebø from West Bromwich Albion misses a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
11
Corner Corner
Daryl Dike of West Bromwich Albion misses a chance with a header from inside the six-yard box, very close to the goal. Callum Styles provided the assist with a cross following a corner.
10
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to West Bromwich Albion after being conceded by Josh Coburn.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to West Bromwich Albion after a foul by Tristan Crama.
9
Update Update
Daryl Dike of West Bromwich Albion won a free kick on the left wing.
9
Update Update
Caleb Taylor fouled a player from Millwall.
6
Attempt Attempt
Thierno Ballo from Millwall had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the left side of the box, but it went just to the left.
4
Update Update
Femi Azeez commits a foul against Millwall.
4
Update Update
Femi Azeez commits a foul against Millwall.
2
Update Update
Camiel Neghli from Millwall won a free kick in an attacking position.
2
Update Update
Aune Heggebø of West Bromwich Albion committed a foul.
1
Update Update
Offside called against West Bromwich Albion. Aune Heggebø is in an offside position.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Millwall exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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