Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Wohninvest Weserstadion Sat, 2 May - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
Werder Bremen SVW
1 Winner 3
FC Augsburg FCA
Full Time Sat, 2 May 1:30 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Romano Schmid - 64'
Goal
|
Goal
Anton Kade - 45+3', 24'

CONTEXT

FC Augsburg secured a convincing 3-1 victory over Werder Bremen, defying the hosts' commanding 68% possession. The visitors struck twice before halftime to lead 0-2, showcasing clinical efficiency on limited opportunities. Werder Bremen dominated the ball in the second half but struggled to convert pressure into goals, managing only a consolation strike. Augsburg's defense held firm, absorbing waves of attacks while capitalizing on counters. This result highlights Augsburg as the stronger side, with minimal structural deviation aligning the outcome closely to pre-match assessments. No red cards or major events disrupted the flow, allowing tactical discipline to prevail. Werder's inability to break down a resolute backline proved costly in the Bundesliga clash.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Minimal 2.1% structural deviation aligned with FC Augsburg's performance.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable for alignment evaluation.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment held true throughout the match.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the game state.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards prevented any distortion in match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Siebert

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Seidel

1st Assistant

R. Foltyn

2nd Assistant

K. Oldhfer

4th Official

Werder Bremen D. Thioune
D. Thioune
VS
FC Augsburg M. Baum
M. Baum
0.91
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.36
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
VfB Stuttgart Rank: 85 D
Hamburger SV Rank: 76 W
FC Köln Rank: 74 L
RB Leipzig Rank: 87 L
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: 74 W
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: 80 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: 80 D
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: 90 W
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: 83 D
Hamburger SV Rank: 76 D
VfB Stuttgart Rank: 86 L
Borussia Dortmund Rank: 90 L
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 4 - 13
13

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Werder Bremen
0.2%
Draw
1.92%
Away FC Augsburg
97.89%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
75.65
77.99
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Werder Bremen
FC Augsburg
Power Score
75.65
77.99
League Position
15
9
Global Rank
101
78

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Werder Bremen — Opponent-weighted form score
FC Augsburg — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Werder Bremen FC Augsburg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Werder Bremen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

FC Augsburg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Werder Bremen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Augsburg
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.01
48.28
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
48.28
28.01
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Werder Bremen -1.83 Efficiency Index
vs
FC Augsburg +1.83 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Werder Bremen
FC Augsburg
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Werder Bremen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Augsburg
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Werder Bremen FC Augsburg
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Werder Bremen FC Augsburg
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Werder Bremen
FC Augsburg
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Werder Bremen
vs
FC Augsburg
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Werder Bremen FC Augsburg
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Werder Bremen 0.19
FC Augsburg 0.48
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Werder Bremen FC Augsburg
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Werder Bremen 0.10
FC Augsburg 0.01
Werder Bremen
FC Augsburg
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SVW had peak pressure around 70'.
  • SVW started the game with stronger pressure.
SVW Pressure FCA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SVW reached the top pressure at 70' (83.03).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 27 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Werder Bremen SVW Home
27 matches
FC Augsburg FCA Away
Match Record
10
Wins
13
4
Draws
4
13
Losses
10
Goals
40
Goals Scored
42
42
Goals Conceded
40
-2
Goal Difference
+2

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:03:50+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
M. Backhaus
Germany
30 M. Backhaus
A. Pieper
Germany
5 A. Pieper
M. Friedl
Austria
32 M. Friedl
A. Coulibaly
Substitution
Germany
31 A. Coulibaly
Y. Sugawara
Substitution
Japan
3 Y. Sugawara
C. Puertas
Substitution
Spain
18 C. Puertas
S. Lynen
Belgium
14 S. Lynen
O. Deman
Belgium
2 O. Deman
J. Stage
Denmark
6 J. Stage
R. Schmid
Austria
20 R. Schmid
J. Milošević
Substitution
Serbia
19 J. Milošević
Pitch
F. Dahmen
Germany
1 F. Dahmen
C. Zesiger
Switzerland
16 C. Zesiger
J. Gouweleeuw
Substitution
Netherlands
6 J. Gouweleeuw
C. Matsima
Substitution
France
5 C. Matsima
D. Giannoulis
Substitution
Greece
13 D. Giannoulis
F. Rieder
Switzerland
32 F. Rieder
H. Massengo
Substitution
France
4 H. Massengo
R. Fellhauer
Germany
19 R. Fellhauer
A. Claude Maurice
France
20 A. Claude Maurice
A. Kade
Germany
30 A. Kade
M. Gregoritsch
Substitution
Austria
38 M. Gregoritsch

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Wohninvest Weserstadion
Capacity :
42100
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Jan Seidel
Rafael Foltyn
Konrad Oldhfer
Daniel Siebert

Statistics

Possession
SVW
64%
FCA
36%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
1 Big Chances Created 6
5 Shots 1
81 Dangerous attacks 29
68 Possession 32
8 Corners 2
4 Free kicks 11
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

13 Dribble Attempts 20
99 Ball Safe 99
8 Goal Kicks 13
4 Substitutions 5
24 Throwins 12
12 Goal Attempts 9
4 Successful Dribbles 9
31 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
1 Assists 3
22 Successful Headers 11
0 Injuries 2
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

146 Attacks 70
1 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

63 Successful Long Passes Percentage 21
578 Successful Passes 224
12 Key Passes 13
666 Passes 315
56 Long Passes 62
35 Successful Long Passes 13
87 Successful Passes Percentage 71

Defensive

8 Interceptions 14
15 Tackles 15
45 Duels Won 44
4 Saves 3

Build-up

8 Accurate Crosses 5
33 Total Crosses 9

Discipline

4 Offsides 1
11 Fouls 4

Lineup

Referee : Daniel Siebert

Starting XI ▼

30
Mio Backhaus
Mio Backhaus Goalkeeper
6.93
5
Amos Pieper
Amos Pieper Defender
6.98
31
Karim Coulibaly
Karim Coulibaly Defender
6.57
29
Salim Musah
Salim Musah
Attacker46'
6.67
32
Marco Friedl
Marco Friedl Defender
6.86
2
Olivier Deman
Olivier Deman Midfielder
6.93
3
Yukinari Sugawara
Yukinari Sugawara Midfielder
6.71
17
Marco Grüll
Marco Grüll
Attacker79'
6.82
14
Senne Lynen
Senne Lynen Midfielder
6.79
18
Cameron Puertas
Cameron Puertas Midfielder
6.91
7
Samuel Mbangula
Samuel Mbangula
Attacker46'
6.8
6
Jens Stage
Jens Stage Attacker
7.15
19
Jovan Milosevic
Jovan Milosevic Attacker
6.74
11
Justin Njinmah
Justin Njinmah
Attacker46'
6.75
20
Romano Schmid
Romano Schmid Attacker
7.05
Referee : Daniel Siebert

Starting XI ▼

1
Finn Dahmen
Finn Dahmen Goalkeeper
6.81
5
Chrislain Matsima
Chrislain Matsima Defender
6.86
31
Keven Schlotterbeck
Keven Schlotterbeck
Defender75'
7.02
6
Jeffrey Gouweleeuw
Jeffrey Gouweleeuw Defender
6.6
34
Arthur Chaves
Arthur Chaves
Defender66'
6.86
16
Cédric Zesiger
Cédric Zesiger Defender
6.66
4
Han-Noah Massengo
Han-Noah Massengo Midfielder
6.8
17
Kristijan Jakic
Kristijan Jakic
Midfielder36'
6.72
13
Dimitrios Giannoulis
Dimitrios Giannoulis Midfielder
6.9
27
Marius Wolf
Marius Wolf
Midfielder66'
6.59
19
Robin Fellhauer
Robin Fellhauer Midfielder
6.83
32
Fabian Rieder
Fabian Rieder Midfielder
6.93
20
Alexis Claude-Maurice
Alexis Claude-Maurice Attacker
7.11
30
Anton Kade
Anton Kade Attacker
2
6.81
38
Michael Gregoritsch
Michael Gregoritsch Attacker
6.81
21
Rodrigo Ribeiro
Rodrigo Ribeiro
Attacker67'
6.7

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Marco Grüll → Yukinari Sugawara
9th Substitution
79'
Event
Marco Friedl
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
76'
75'
Event
Keven Schlotterbeck → Chrislain Matsima
8th Substitution
69'
Event
Kristijan Jakic
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
67'
Event
Rodrigo Ribeiro → Michael Gregoritsch
7th Substitution
66'
Event
Arthur Chaves → Jeffrey Gouweleeuw
5th Substitution
66'
Event
Marius Wolf → Dimitrios Giannoulis
6th Substitution
Event
Romano Schmid
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
64'
Event
Var
54'
Event
Samuel Mbangula → Cameron Puertas
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Salim Musah → Karim Coulibaly
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Justin Njinmah → Jovan Milosevic
4th Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45+3'
Event
Anton Kade
Header / 2nd Goal
36'
Event
Kristijan Jakic → Han-Noah Massengo
1st Substitution
24'
Event
Anton Kade
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
14'
Event
Han-Noah Massengo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Justin Njinmah attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Marco Grull takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
85
Attempt Attempt
Anton Kade takes a right-footed shot but misses.
85
Attempt Attempt
Samuel Mbangula takes a left-footed shot but misses.
79
Attempt Attempt
Justin Njinmah takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
79
Update Update
Marco Grull is on, and Yukinari Sugawara is off.
78
Attempt Attempt
Cedric Zesiger takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
78
Attempt Attempt
Salim Musah's left-footed shot is blocked.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marco Friedl receives a yellow card.
75
Update Update
Keven Schlotterbeck replaces Chrislain Matsima.
74
Attempt Attempt
Jens Stage takes a header shot but misses.
73
Attempt Attempt
Robin Fellhauer takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
69
Attempt Attempt
Marius Wolf attempts a header but misses the shot.
69
Attempt Attempt
Kristijan Jakic scores with a right-footed shot.
66
Update Update
Marius Wolf comes on for Dimitris Giannoulis.
66
Update Update
Arthur Chaves is on for Jeffrey Gouweleeuw.
66
Update Update
Rodrigo Duarte Ribeiro comes on for Michael Gregoritsch.
64
Update Update
Goal! Romano Schmid scores to make it 1-2, assisted by Olivier Deman.
64
Attempt Attempt
Romano Schmid scores with a right-footed shot.
63
Attempt Attempt
Salim Musah takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
61
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Alexis Claude Maurice with his right foot, but it's saved.
58
Update Update
Jens Stage attempts a header but misses the target.
58
Attempt Attempt
Olivier Deman's left-footed shot is blocked.
50
Attempt Attempt
Romano Schmid's right-footed shot is saved.
48
Attempt Attempt
Justin Njinmah takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
46
Update Update
Justin Njinmah replaces Jovan Milosevic.
46
Update Update
Samuel Mbangula is on, and Cameron Puertas is off.
46
Update Update
Salim Musah replaces Karim Coulibaly.
46
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Alexis Claude Maurice with his right foot, but it misses the target.
45
Update Update
Anton Kade scores with a header.
41
Attempt Attempt
Michael Gregoritsch attempted a header but missed the shot.
41
Attempt Attempt
Michael Gregoritsch attempts a header but misses the shot.
38
Attempt Attempt
Jeffrey Gouweleeuw takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
36
Update Update
Kristijan Jakic replaces Han-Noah Massengo.
35
Attempt Attempt
Michael Gregoritsch attempts a header but misses the shot.
27
Attempt Attempt
Cameron Puertas takes a left-footed shot but misses.
24
Update Update
Goal! Anton Kade scores, making it 1-0.
24
Attempt Attempt
Anton Kade scores with a right-footed shot.
22
Attempt Attempt
Cameron Puertas takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
14
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Han-Noah Massengo receives a yellow card.
9
Attempt Attempt
Michael Gregoritsch takes a left-footed shot but misses.
6
Attempt Attempt
Yukinari Sugawara takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.

CONCLUSION

FC Augsburg's triumph over possession-heavy Werder Bremen underscores their status as the stronger team, winning 3-1 with smart execution. Leading 2-0 at halftime, they maintained control despite lower ball share, exposing Werder's finishing woes. The minimal deviation and aligned efficiencies reflect a result true to form. Without disruptions like reds, Augsburg's strategy shone, offering lessons in counter-attacking potency. This outcome boosts Augsburg's momentum while challenging Werder to refine their conversion rates.

Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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