Vukovar vs Varaždin Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Gradski vrt Fri, 15 May - 4:00 PM
1. HNL
Vukovar Vukovar
0 Winner 2
Varaždin Varaždin
Full Time Fri, 15 May 4:00 PM
Round 35 Regular Season
|
Goal
Stipe Juric - 90+3'
David Puclin - 45+1'

CONTEXT

Vukovar faced Varaždin in a tightly fought Croatian league match, ultimately falling 0-2 at home. The visitors opened the scoring in the first half to lead 0-1 at halftime, then doubled their advantage after the break to claim a deserved victory. Possession was perfectly even at 50% apiece, yet Varaždin's clinical finishing made the difference against a resilient Vukovar defense. No red cards disrupted play, allowing the stronger team, Varaždin, to impose their quality throughout. This result showcased a significant structural deviation of 54.2% in Varaždin's favor, highlighting their edge beyond the balanced stats. Efficiency stayed in line with norms, and the absence of xG data leaves chance creation open to interpretation, but the scoreboard tells a clear story of Varaždin's superiority.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Varaždin's 0-2 win showed a significant 54.2% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: No xG data available to assess alignment with outcome.
  • Market alignment: Final result aligned fully with pre-match market views.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the game's flow.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

I. Vukančić

Croatia 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

League averages

1. HNL Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.6
Yellow cards / match 3.33
Red cards / match 0.07
Penalties / match 0.33
Vukovar T. Stipić
T. Stipić
VS
Varaždin N. Šafarić
N. Šafarić
0.81
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.38
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rijeka Rank: 71 L
Osijek Rank: 64 W
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 62 D
Gorica Rank: 61 L
Istra 1961 Rank: 64 W
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 82 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 63 D
Hajduk Split Rank: 72 L
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 80 L
Rijeka Rank: 70 W
Osijek Rank: 62 W
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 62 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Vukovar
27.14%
Draw
27.11%
Away Varaždin
45.75%

Movement

Changes since opening
Vukovar
+26.95%
Draw
+22.02%
Varaždin
-48.97%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
48.6
65.53
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Vukovar
Varaždin
Power Score
48.6
65.53
League Position
10
4
Global Rank
610
318

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Vukovar — Opponent-weighted form score
Varaždin — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Vukovar Varaždin

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Vukovar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Varaždin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Vukovar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Varaždin
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Vukovar Varaždin
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Vukovar Varaždin
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Vukovar
Varaždin
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Vukovar
vs
Varaždin
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Vukovar Varaždin
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Vukovar 0.00
Varaždin 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Vukovar Varaždin
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Vukovar 0.00
Varaždin 0.00
Vukovar
Varaždin
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Vukovar had peak pressure around 43'.
  • Vukovar started the game with stronger pressure.
Vukovar Pressure Varaždin Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Vukovar reached the top pressure at 43' (87.22).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Vukovar Vukovar Home
3 matches
Varaždin Varaždin Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
3
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-05-15T15:45:17+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
A. Đaković
Croatia
42 A. Đaković
A. Bosec
Croatia
8 A. Bosec
N. Vlasenko
Switzerland
5 N. Vlasenko
V. Čaić
Croatia
13 V. Čaić
K. Cabrajic
Croatia
20 K. Cabrajic
E. Shabani
Albania
77 E. Shabani
J. Gurlica
Substitution
Croatia
35 J. Gurlica
?. Butić
27 ?. Butić
R. Gonzales
Colombia
10 R. Gonzales
L. Banovec
Substitution
Croatia
28 L. Banovec
J. Puljić
Croatia
21 J. Puljić
Pitch
O. Zelenika
Croatia
1 O. Zelenika
S. Lesjak
Croatia
2 S. Lesjak
R. Punčec
Croatia
14 R. Punčec
N. Tepšić
Croatia
16 N. Tepšić
A. Boršić
Croatia
25 A. Boršić
T. Duvnjak
Croatia
8 T. Duvnjak
D. Puclin
Substitution
Croatia
6 D. Puclin
F. Maglica
Croatia
23 F. Maglica
Iuri Tavares
Cape Verde
38 Iuri Tavares
L. Mamić
Substitution
Croatia
22 L. Mamić
A. Latković
Substitution
Montenegro
10 A. Latković

General Information

Date & Time :
May 15, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Gradski vrt
Capacity :
1000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ivan Vukančić
Bojan Zobenica
Dominik Benković
Ivana Martinčić

Statistics

Possession
Vukovar
49%
Varaždin
51%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 3
10 Shots 13
88 Dangerous attacks 73
50 Possession 50
5 Corners 3
18 Free kicks 13
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

7 Goal Kicks 6
7 Successful Dribbles 8
27 Throwins 23
39 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67
18 Dribble Attempts 12
2 Substitutions 4
0 Assists 1

Attacking

154 Attacks 123
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

36 Long Passes 65
406 Passes 412
7 Key Passes 12
337 Successful Passes 337
10 Successful Long Passes 32
28 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49
83 Successful Passes Percentage 82

Defensive

8 Tackles 18
4 Saves 2
8 Interceptions 7
41 Duels Won 47

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 13
4 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

13 Fouls 18
1 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Ivan Vukančić

Starting XI ▼

42
Antonio Đaković
Antonio Đaković Goalkeeper
7.41
5
Nikita Vlasenko
Nikita Vlasenko Defender
6.65
8
Antonio Bosec
Antonio Bosec Defender
6.29
13
Vito Caic
Vito Caic Defender
6.6
20
Kristijan Cabrajic
Kristijan Cabrajic Defender
6.5
27
Simun Butic
Simun Butic Midfielder
6.57
28
Lovro Banovec
Lovro Banovec Midfielder
6.77
—
Lovro Banovec
83'
35
Jakov Gurlica
Jakov Gurlica Midfielder
6.49
25
Niko Pajvančić
Niko Pajvančić
Attacker83'
77
Eniss Shabani
Eniss Shabani Midfielder
6.8
10
Robin González
Robin González Attacker
6.88
21
Jakov Puljic
Jakov Puljic Attacker
7.05
Referee : Ivan Vukančić

Starting XI ▼

1
Oliver Zelenika
Oliver Zelenika Goalkeeper
6.9
2
Sven Lesjak
Sven Lesjak Defender
6.83
14
Roberto Puncec
Roberto Puncec Defender
16
Novak Tepsic
Novak Tepsic Defender
6.71
6
David Puclin
David Puclin Midfielder
6.57
15
Silvio Ilinkovic
Silvio Ilinkovic
Midfielder63'
6.93
8
Tomislav Duvnjak
Tomislav Duvnjak Midfielder
6.78
23
Frane Maglica
Frane Maglica Midfielder
6.81
25
Antonio Borsic
Antonio Borsic Midfielder
6.61
10
Aleksa Latkovic
Aleksa Latkovic Attacker
7.1
9
Stipe Juric
Stipe Juric
Attacker89'
6.58
22
Luka Mamic
Luka Mamic Attacker
6.68
28
Ivan Canjuga
Ivan Canjuga
Attacker63'
6.46
38
Iuri Tavares
Iuri Tavares Attacker
6.95

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Stipe Juric
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
89'
Event
Stipe Juric → Aleksa Latkovic
6th Substitution
84'
Event
Aleksa Latkovic
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Niko Pajvančić → Jakov Gurlica
4th Substitution
83'
Event
Danijel Vinković → Lovro Banovec
5th Substitution
83'
Event
Eniss Shabani
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
69'
68'
Event
Mario Marina → Silvio Ilinkovic
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Ivan Canjuga → Luka Mamic
1st Substitution
63'
Event
Silvio Ilinkovic → David Puclin
2nd Substitution
56'
Event
Roberto Puncec
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
45+1'
Event
David Puclin
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Lovro Banovec
Goal disallowed
43'
Event
Lovro Banovec
Handball / Goal Disallowed
41'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Stipe Juric scores with a right-footed shot.
89
Update Update
Stipe Juric comes on for Aleksa Latkovic.
86
Attempt Attempt
Aleksa Latkovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
83
Update Update
Danijel Vinkovic replaces Lovro Banovec.
83
Update Update
Niko Pajvancic comes on for Jakov Gurlica.
80
Attempt Attempt
Simun Butic takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
76
Attempt Attempt
Iuri Tavares takes a right-footed shot but misses.
75
Attempt Attempt
Jakov Gurlica takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
68
Update Update
Mario Marina comes on for Silvio Ilinkovic.
67
Attempt Attempt
Jakov Puljic takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
63
Update Update
Silvio Ilinkovic comes on for Tomislav Duvnjak.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Ivan Canjuga comes on for Luka Mamic.
61
Attempt Attempt
Robin Gonzalez takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
53
Attempt Attempt
Robin Gonzalez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
52
Attempt Attempt
Luka Mamic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
51
Attempt Attempt
Iuri Tavares takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
49
Attempt Attempt
Aleksa Latkovic takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
David Puclin takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
41
Update Update
VAR decision: Goal disallowed due to handball by Lovro Banovec.
41
Attempt Attempt
Simun Butic takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
41
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Jakov Gurlica scores, making it 1-0.
36
Attempt Attempt
Robin Gonzalez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
36
Attempt Attempt
Iuri Tavares attempts a right-footed shot but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Luka Mamic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
31
Attempt Attempt
David Puclin takes a left-footed shot but misses.
30
Attempt Attempt
Tomislav Duvnjak takes a right-footed shot but misses.
29
Attempt Attempt
Eniss Shabani's left-footed shot is saved.
22
Attempt Attempt
Lovro Banovec's right-footed shot is blocked.
21
Update Update
VAR review results in a disallowed goal due to a handball by Lovro Banovec.
20
Attempt Attempt
Iuri Tavares takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
8
Attempt Attempt
Eniss Shabani takes a right-footed shot but misses.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Ivan Vukancic.

CONCLUSION

Varaždin's composed 0-2 triumph over Vukovar validates their status as the stronger side, with the scoreline reflecting market alignment and in-line efficiencies. The 54.2% structural deviation amplified their dominance despite even possession, as Vukovar generated opportunities but lacked the edge to convert. Halftime's 0-1 lead set the tone, and a clean second half without reds preserved the natural contest. This performance boosts Varaždin's momentum, exposing Vukovar's need for sharper attacking play. Overall, the match underscored fine margins in balanced encounters.

Vukovar vs Varaždin preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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