Vukovar vs Rijeka Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Gradski vrt Sun, 8 Mar - 4:45 PM
1. HNL Vukovar Vukovar 
0 
1
1
Rijeka Rijeka Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 4:45 PM
|
Toni Fruk - 51' (P)
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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Promotion Promotion Playoffs Relegation
Data last checked: May 15
CONTEXT
Match is finished. Vukovar 0–1 Rijeka. The result saw Rijeka take the points. Rijeka showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 52%–48%.
TL;DR
- Structural deviation: Rijeka showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
- Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
- xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
- Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
- xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
- Event impact: No major event distortion.
- Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Match referee
I. Pajač
• 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 
0.12
0.12 Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0
Other match officials
F. Đerđ
2nd Assistant
J. Titlić
4th Official
Luka Kurtović
1st Assistant
S. Čabraja
VS
V. Sánchez del Amo
0.95
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.5
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Osijek Rank: L
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: D
Gorica Rank: D
Istra 1961 Rank: W
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: L
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hajduk Split Rank: L
Varaždin Rank: W
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: D
Osijek Rank: L
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: D
Istra 1961 Rank: W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 1
1
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min) Vukovar27.11%
Draw
28.15%
Rijeka44.74%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
27.98 50.67 0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Vukovar RijekaPower Score
27.98
50.67
League Position
10
3
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Vukovar — Opponent-weighted form score
Rijeka — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Vukovar Rijeka
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
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Vukovar
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Rijeka
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Vukovar ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Rijeka
Attacking Efficiency Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.96
26.15
Defensive Efficiency Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.15
25.96
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Vukovar -0.02 Efficiency Index
vs
Rijeka +0.02 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Vukovar
Rijeka
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Vukovar ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Rijeka
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Vukovar Rijeka Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Vukovar Rijeka Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Vukovar
Rijeka
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Vukovar Vukovar Home
2 matches
Rijeka Rijeka Away
Match Record 1
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
1
Goals 4
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
4
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:19:17+00:00
TEAM FORMATION
No team formation data available.
General Information
📅 Date & Time :
Mar 08, 2026, 04:45 PM
🏆 Competition :
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
🏟️ Stadium :
Stadion Gradski vrt
👥 Capacity :
1000
🌱 Pitch Surface :
Grass
🌤️ Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
🧑⚖️ Referees :
Filip Đerđ
Jakov Titlić
Igor Pajač
Luka Kurtović
Statistics
Possession
Vukovar
51%
Rijeka
49%
Top Statistics
0 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 2
1 Shots 2
90 Dangerous attacks 91
52 Possession 48
2 Corners 1
12 Free kicks 13
1 Yellow Cards 0
Match Overview
70 Successful Dribbles Percentage 71
29 Throwins 20
10 Dribble Attempts 14
7 Successful Dribbles 10
8 Goal Kicks 8
1 Hit Woodwork 0
0 Penalties 1
4 Substitutions 5
Attacking
137 Attacks 158
0 Big Chances Missed 1
Possession
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 31
372 Passes 350
284 Successful Passes 266
68 Long Passes 68
76 Successful Passes Percentage 76
30 Successful Long Passes 21
Defensive
10 Interceptions 10
13 Tackles 5
0 Saves 1
Build-up
25 Total Crosses 16
4 Accurate Crosses 2
Discipline
5 Offsides 2
14 Fouls 12
Events
2ND-HALF
86'
Stjepan Radeljic → Toni Fruk
9th Substitution
81'
Alfonso Daniel Barco del Solar → Tiago Dantas
7th Substitution
81'
Duje Cop → Ante Matej Juric
8th Substitution
Simun Butic → Jakov Gurlica
5th Substitution
76'
Kerim Çalhanoğlu → Alen Jurilj
6th Substitution
76'
Josip Špoljarić → Mario Tičinović
4th Substitution
75'
74'
Amer Gojak → Gabriel Rukavina
2nd Substitution
74'
Christian Ouguehi Legbo → Tornike Morchiladze
3rd Substitution
Kristijan Pavicic → Antonio Bosec
1st Substitution
59'
51'
Toni Fruk
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
48'
Ante Matej Juric
Penalty awarded
1ST-HALF
Lovro Banovec
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
29'
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Rijeka exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.
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