Vukovar vs Osijek Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Gradski vrt Sat, 2 May - 4:45 PM
1. HNL
Vukovar Vukovar
1 Winner 0
Osijek Osijek
Full Time Sat, 2 May 4:45 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Jakov Puljic - 56'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Vukovar pulled off a shock 1-0 victory against the stronger Osijek, defying expectations in a tense encounter. Despite controlling just 41% of possession, the home side demonstrated remarkable defensive solidity and seized their moment in the second half after a goalless first half that ended 0-0. Osijek, with 59% of the ball, pressed forward but struggled to break down Vukovar's organized backline, wasting several promising positions. No red cards disrupted the flow, allowing both teams to maintain their strategies throughout. This result represents a significant structural deviation, as Vukovar overturned pre-match favoritism towards Osijek. The underdogs' efficiency in limited attacks proved decisive, turning possession disparity into a narrow but precious win. Vukovar's resilience shone through, boosting their campaign while leaving Osijek to reflect on missed chances.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Vukovar's 1-0 win marked a significant 71.4% structural deviation from expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment remains undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The outcome did not align with pre-match market evaluations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated lacking match data.
  • Event impact: No key events altered the match's trajectory significantly.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, eliminating any distortion effects.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Strukan

Fouls / match 0
Yellow cards / match 0
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Jakšić

1st Assistant

M. Crnojević

4th Official

V. Đurak

2nd Assistant

Vukovar T. Stipić
T. Stipić
VS
Osijek T. Radotic
T. Radotic
0.75
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.1
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 62 D
Gorica Rank: 61 L
Istra 1961 Rank: 63 W
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 80 L
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 64 D
Hajduk Split Rank: 72 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 63 D
Hajduk Split Rank: 72 W
Varaždin Rank: 64 L
Rijeka Rank: 71 W
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 81 L
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 62 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Vukovar
28.57%
Draw
27.91%
Away Osijek
43.51%

Movement

Changes since opening
Vukovar
-66.15%
Draw
+22.82%
Osijek
+43.32%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
48.95
62.96
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Vukovar
Osijek
Power Score
48.95
62.96
League Position
10
9
Global Rank
591
400

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Vukovar — Opponent-weighted form score
Osijek — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Vukovar Osijek

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Vukovar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Osijek

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Vukovar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Osijek
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.95
27.37
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.37
26.95
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Vukovar -0.04 Efficiency Index
vs
Osijek +0.04 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Vukovar
Osijek
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Vukovar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Osijek
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Vukovar Osijek
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Vukovar Osijek
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Vukovar
Osijek
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Vukovar
vs
Osijek
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Vukovar Osijek
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Vukovar 0.13
Osijek 0.14
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Vukovar Osijek
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Vukovar 0.00
Osijek 0.02
Vukovar
Osijek
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Vukovar had peak pressure around 38'.
  • Vukovar started the game with stronger pressure.
Vukovar Pressure Osijek Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Vukovar reached the top pressure at 38' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Vukovar Vukovar Home
3 matches
Osijek Osijek Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
0
Goals
2
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
2
-6
Goal Difference
+6

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:06:06+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Đaković
Croatia
42 A. Đaković
M. Živković
Croatia
14 M. Živković
N. Vlasenko
Switzerland
5 N. Vlasenko
V. Čaić
Croatia
13 V. Čaić
K. Cabrajic
Croatia
20 K. Cabrajic
J. Gurlica
Substitution
Croatia
35 J. Gurlica
E. Shabani
Substitution
Albania
77 E. Shabani
?. Butić
Substitution
27 ?. Butić
R. Gonzales
Colombia
10 R. Gonzales
L. Banovec
Substitution
Croatia
28 L. Banovec
J. Puljić
Substitution
Croatia
21 J. Puljić
Pitch
M. Malenica
Croatia
31 M. Malenica
B. Barišić
Croatia
3 B. Barišić
L. Jelenić
Croatia
26 L. Jelenić
J. Mersinaj
Substitution
Albania
5 J. Mersinaj
F. Karačić
Australia
29 F. Karačić
O. Petrusenko
Substitution
Ukraine
16 O. Petrusenko
D. Mejía Moscoso
Colombia
6 D. Mejía Moscoso
N. Omerović
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
11 N. Omerović
T. Teklić
Substitution
Croatia
99 T. Teklić
D. Bukvić
Substitution
Croatia
39 D. Bukvić
S. Akere
Nigeria
57 S. Akere

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 04:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Gradski vrt
Capacity :
1000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Duje Strukan
Alen Jakšić
Marko Crnojević
Vedran Đurak

Statistics

Possession
Vukovar
44%
Osijek
56%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 3
8 Shots 12
61 Dangerous attacks 83
41 Possession 59
7 Corners 4
22 Free kicks 19
4 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 0
5 Goal Kicks 9
23 Dribble Attempts 18
13 Throwins 28
61 Successful Dribbles Percentage 39
14 Successful Dribbles 7
1 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

113 Attacks 152
2 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

207 Successful Passes 345
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
73 Successful Passes Percentage 83
285 Passes 418
23 Successful Long Passes 16
56 Long Passes 48

Defensive

67 Duels Won 49
11 Interceptions 10
20 Tackles 14
5 Saves 2

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 20
3 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

19 Fouls 22
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Duje Strukan

Starting XI ▼

42
Antonio Đaković
Antonio Đaković Goalkeeper
7.2
5
Nikita Vlasenko
Nikita Vlasenko Defender
6.5
13
Vito Caic
Vito Caic Defender
6.57
14
Moreno Zivkovic
Moreno Zivkovic Defender
6.54
20
Kristijan Cabrajic
Kristijan Cabrajic Defender
6.48
10
Robin González
Robin González Midfielder
6.89
27
Simun Butic
Simun Butic Midfielder
6.41
11
Lovre Kulusic
Lovre Kulusic
Attacker76'
6.32
28
Lovro Banovec
Lovro Banovec Midfielder
6.77
8
Antonio Bosec
Antonio Bosec
Defender76'
6.23
35
Jakov Gurlica
Jakov Gurlica Midfielder
6.9
34
Mario Tadic
Mario Tadic
Defender90+1'
6.67
77
Eniss Shabani
Eniss Shabani Midfielder
6.79
6
Jakov Biljan
Jakov Biljan
Midfielder90+5'
6.55
21
Jakov Puljic
Jakov Puljic Attacker
7.04
50
Josip Špoljarić
Josip Špoljarić
Midfielder90+1'
6.44
Referee : Duje Strukan

Starting XI ▼

31
Marko Malenica
Marko Malenica Goalkeeper
6.93
3
Borna Barisic
Borna Barisic Defender
6.77
5
Jon Mersinaj
Jon Mersinaj Defender
6.61
22
Roko Jurisic
Roko Jurisic
Defender79'
6.77
26
Luka Jelenic
Luka Jelenic Defender
6.81
29
Fran Karacic
Fran Karacic Defender
7.14
6
David Mejía
David Mejía Midfielder
6.97
11
Nail Omerovic
Nail Omerovic Midfielder
6.89
36
Jakov Dedic
Jakov Dedic
Attacker89'
6.37
16
Oleksandr Petrusenko
Oleksandr Petrusenko Midfielder
6.7
21
Vladan Bubanja
Vladan Bubanja
Midfielder57'
6.81
39
Domagoj Bukvic
Domagoj Bukvic Midfielder
6.66
46
Ivan Barić
Ivan Barić
Attacker57'
6.44
99
Tonio Teklic
Tonio Teklic Midfielder
6.82
23
Luka Vrbancic
Luka Vrbancic
Midfielder78'
6.69
57
Samuel Akere
Samuel Akere Attacker
6.84

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Jakov Biljan → Eniss Shabani
10th Substitution
90+5'
Event
Lovre Kulusic
Time wasting / 6th Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Mario Tadic → Jakov Gurlica
9th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Josip Špoljarić → Jakov Puljic
8th Substitution
90+1'
89'
Event
Jakov Dedic → Nail Omerovic
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Borna Barisic
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
79'
Event
Roko Jurisic → Jon Mersinaj
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Luka Vrbancic → Tonio Teklic
5th Substitution
Event
Antonio Bosec → Lovro Banovec
3rd Substitution
76'
Event
Lovre Kulusic → Simun Butic
4th Substitution
76'
68'
Event
David Mejía
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
57'
Event
Ivan Barić → Domagoj Bukvic
1st Substitution
57'
Event
Vladan Bubanja → Oleksandr Petrusenko
2nd Substitution
Event
Jakov Puljic
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
56'
Event
Vito Caic
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
48'
1ST-HALF
Event
Moreno Zivkovic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
45+1'
Event
Jakov Puljic
Off the ball foul / 1st Yellowcard
26'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Josip Spoljaric comes on for Jakov Puljic.
90
Update Update
Mario Tadic is on, and Jakov Gurlica is off.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Lovre Kulusic.
90
Update Update
Jakov Biljan is on, and Eniss Shabani is off.
90
Attempt Attempt
David Mateo Mejia Moscoso takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
89
Update Update
Jakov Dedic is on, and Nail Omerovic is off.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Borna Barisic receives a yellow card.
79
Update Update
Luka Vrbancic is on, and Tonio Teklic is off.
79
Update Update
Roko Jurisic is on, and Jon Mersinaj is off.
77
Attempt Attempt
David Mateo Mejia Moscoso takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
76
Update Update
Lovre Kulusic comes on for Simun Butic.
76
Attempt Attempt
Jakov Puljic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
75
Attempt Attempt
Tonio Teklic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
75
Substitution Substitution
Antonio Bosec is substituted for Lovro Banovec.
67
Attempt Attempt
Nail Omerovic takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
62
Attempt Attempt
Samuel Akere takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
59
Attempt Attempt
Samuel Akere attempts a header but misses the shot.
57
Update Update
Ivan Baric comes on for Domagoj Bukvic.
57
Update Update
Vladan Bubanja comes on for Oleksandr Petrusenko.
56
Attempt Attempt
Jakov Puljic takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
55
Attempt Attempt
Simun Butic's left-footed shot is blocked.
51
Attempt Attempt
Eniss Shabani's left-footed shot is saved.
48
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Vito Caic receives a yellow card.
43
Attempt Attempt
Domagoj Bukvic's left-footed shot is saved.
37
Attempt Attempt
Jakov Gurlica takes a shot with his head, but it hits the post.
36
Attempt Attempt
Lovro Banovec attempts a header but misses the shot.
35
Attempt Attempt
Jakov Puljic attempts a header but misses the shot.
27
Attempt Attempt
Tonio Teklic's left-footed shot is blocked.
26
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Jakov Puljic.
25
Attempt Attempt
Lovro Banovec takes a right-footed shot but misses.
18
Attempt Attempt
Nail Omerovic takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
16
Attempt Attempt
Nail Omerovic takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
14
Attempt Attempt
Simun Butic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
13
Attempt Attempt
David Mateo Mejia Moscoso takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Vukovar's 1-0 upset over Osijek exemplifies football's capacity for surprises, where grit outshone dominance. The home team's 41% possession belied their effectiveness, holding firm at 0-0 through halftime before striking decisively. Osijek's superior control yielded no goals, exposing vulnerabilities against resolute defending. This significant deviation underscores Vukovar's tactical discipline against a stronger foe. Without red cards or disruptions, the result stands as a pure test of execution. Vukovar builds vital confidence, potentially shifting league dynamics, while Osijek faces scrutiny over conversion failures. Such outcomes remind observers that metrics like possession do not guarantee victory.

Vukovar vs Osijek preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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