Vukovar vs Lokomotiva Zagreb Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia

Stadion Gradski vrt Tue, 7 Apr - 1:45 PM

1. HNL

Vukovar Vukovar

1 – 1

Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb

Full Time Tue, 7 Apr 1:45 PM

Round 28 Regular Season

Vito Caic - 69'

Leon Belcar - 51'

CONTEXT

The match between Vukovar and Lokomotiva Zagreb has officially finished, with the final whistle sealing a 1-1 draw. Following a tightly contested first half that ended scoreless, both sides found the back of the net in the second period but ultimately had to share the points. This stalemate resulted in a significant deviation from expectations, frustrating backers of Lokomotiva Zagreb. The visitors entered as the stronger side with a 39.6% win probability, compared to Vukovar's 32.4% and a 27.9% likelihood of a draw. Consequently, the final result failed to align with the pre-match market predictions. On the pitch, Lokomotiva Zagreb dictated the tempo, maintaining 58% possession against Vukovar's 42%. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable, it cannot be determined if the drawn outcome aligned with the actual chance creation. However, the overall finishing efficiency shift was recorded as being in line with standard play. The contest was also disciplined; neither team suffered a red card, ensuring both sides finished the match with a full complement of players and no major numerical disadvantages impacted the result.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Lokomotiva Zagreb showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

Antonio Melnjak

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

G. Pataki

1st Assistant

A. Škobić

4th Official

F. Đerđ

2nd Assistant

T. Stipić

N. Jelavić

0.83

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

0.83

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

0 - 1 - 2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Vukovar

32.44%

Draw

27.92%

Lokomotiva Zagreb

39.63%

Team Power Ranking

47.5

59.89

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Vukovar

Lokomotiva Zagreb

Power Score

47.5

59.89

League Position

Global Rank

624

467

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Vukovar — Opponent-weighted form score

Lokomotiva Zagreb — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Vukovar Lokomotiva Zagreb

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Vukovar

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Lokomotiva Zagreb

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Vukovar ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Lokomotiva Zagreb

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

18.93

18.28

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

18.28

18.93

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Vukovar +0.07 Efficiency Index

Lokomotiva Zagreb -0.07 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Vukovar

Lokomotiva Zagreb

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Vukovar ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Lokomotiva Zagreb

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Vukovar Lokomotiva Zagreb

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Vukovar Lokomotiva Zagreb

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Vukovar

Lokomotiva Zagreb

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Vukovar

Lokomotiva Zagreb

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Vukovar Lokomotiva Zagreb

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Vukovar Lokomotiva Zagreb

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Vukovar

Lokomotiva Zagreb

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Vukovar Vukovar Home

3 matches

Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-2

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-04-08T00:01:16+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

Match Formation 4-3-2-1

1 M. Bulat

8 A. Bosec

35 J. Gurlica

14 M. Živković

20 K. Cabrajic

77 E. Shabani

13 V. Čaić

27 ?. Butić

10 R. Gonzales

28 L. Banovec

21 J. Puljić

12 J. Posavec

17 M. Pajač

33 D. Kamenović

20 D. Kolinger

23 M. Vešović

28 L. Belcar

6 B. Bošković

10 M. Subotic

15 A. Stojaković

29 J. Vasilj

9 I. Abdallah Sabra

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 07, 2026, 01:45 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 28 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadion Gradski vrt

Capacity :

1000

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ , Clear

Referees :

Antonio Melnjak

Goran Pataki

Antonio Škobić

Filip Đerđ

Statistics

Possession

Vukovar

43%

Lokomotiva Zagreb

57%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1

1 Big Chances Created 0

2 Shots 6

59 Dangerous attacks 92

42 Possession 58

4 Corners 4

18 Free kicks 18

1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

14 Dribble Attempts 11

50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45

26 Throwins 19

7 Successful Dribbles 5

10 Goal Kicks 7

3 Substitutions 5

1 Assists 0

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 0

113 Attacks 154

Possession

10 Successful Long Passes 27

22 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42

68 Successful Passes Percentage 77

182 Successful Passes 281

267 Passes 366

45 Long Passes 65

5 Key Passes 3

Defensive

13 Tackles 11

54 Duels Won 42

0 Saves 3

7 Interceptions 6

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 2

12 Total Crosses 16

Discipline

2 Offsides 4

18 Fouls 18

Lineup

Referee : Antonio Melnjak

Manager ▼

T. Stipić Coach

Starting XI ▼

Marino Bulat Goalkeeper

Antonio Bosec Defender

Vito Caic Defender

Moreno Zivkovic Defender

Kristijan Cabrajic Defender

Robin González Midfielder

Simun Butic Midfielder

Alen Jurilj

Midfielder90+1'

Lovro Banovec Midfielder

Josip Špoljarić

Midfielder81'

Jakov Gurlica Midfielder

Eniss Shabani Midfielder

Jakov Biljan

Midfielder81'

Jakov Puljic Attacker

Substitutes ▼

Jakov Biljan

Midfielder81'

Josip Špoljarić

Midfielder81'

Alen Jurilj

Midfielder90+1'

Bench ▼

Dominik Damjanović Goalkeeper

Antonio Đaković Goalkeeper

Nikita Vlasenko Defender

Kerim Çalhanoğlu Defender

Halid Šabanović Defender

Josip Elez Defender

Mario Tadic Defender

Mario Tičinović Defender

Luka Klanac Attacker

Referee : Antonio Melnjak