Vukovar vs Gorica Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Gradski vrt Wed, 22 Apr - 1:30 PM
1. HNL
Vukovar Vukovar
1 Winner 2
Gorica Gorica
Full Time Wed, 22 Apr 1:30 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
Jakov Puljic - 45+4' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Ante Erceg - 66' (P)
Zan Trontelj - 19'

CONTEXT

Gorica claimed a hard-fought 2-1 victory over Vukovar in a balanced Croatian league clash, extending their strong form on the road. The first half ended 1-1, with Vukovar striking first before Gorica equalized swiftly, mirroring their near-even possession stats of 49% to 51%. Post-interval, Gorica's clinical edge emerged, as they converted a key chance into the winner while Vukovar pushed forward without reward. No red cards disrupted play, allowing skill to prevail in a fair contest. Identified pre-match as the stronger side, Gorica delivered a result with only minimal 3.9% structural deviation, underscoring their consistency. Vukovar's resilience kept it close, but Gorica's second-half composure sealed the points, highlighting tactical discipline amid even territorial battles. This outcome reinforces Gorica's reliability against mid-table opposition.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Gorica's win featured minimal structural deviation of 3.9%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Result fully aligned with pre-match market assessments.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or events altered the outcome.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Erceg

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Brajković

1st Assistant

V. Podrug

2nd Assistant

I. Martinčić

4th Official

Vukovar T. Stipić
T. Stipić
VS
Gorica M. Carević
M. Carević
0.9
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.05
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Istra 1961 Rank: W
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: L
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: D
Hajduk Split Rank: L
Varaždin Rank: L
Rijeka Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: L
Hajduk Split Rank: L
Varaždin Rank: D
Rijeka Rank: W
Osijek Rank: D
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 3 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Vukovar
0.19%
Draw
3.73%
Away Gorica
96.07%

Movement

Changes since opening
Vukovar
0%
Draw
-1.36%
Gorica
+1.35%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
17.59
19.07
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Vukovar
Gorica
Power Score
17.59
19.07
League Position
10
8
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Vukovar — Opponent-weighted form score
Gorica — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Vukovar Gorica

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Vukovar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Gorica

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Vukovar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Gorica
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.96
39.31
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
39.31
32.96
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Vukovar -0.63 Efficiency Index
vs
Gorica +0.63 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Vukovar
Gorica
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Vukovar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Gorica
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Vukovar Gorica
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Vukovar Gorica
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Vukovar
Gorica
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Vukovar
vs
Gorica
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Vukovar Gorica
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Vukovar 0.14
Gorica 0.20
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Vukovar Gorica
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Vukovar 0.02
Gorica 0.01
Vukovar
Gorica
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Gorica had peak pressure around 24'.
  • Vukovar started the game with stronger pressure.
Vukovar Pressure Gorica Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Gorica reached the top pressure at 24' (88.27).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Vukovar Vukovar Home
3 matches
Gorica Gorica Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
3
Draws
3
0
Losses
0
Goals
3
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
3
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-23T00:00:50+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
M. Bulat
Croatia
1 M. Bulat
M. Živković
Croatia
14 M. Živković
M. Tadić
Substitution
Croatia
34 M. Tadić
N. Vlasenko
Switzerland
5 N. Vlasenko
K. Cabrajic
Substitution
Croatia
20 K. Cabrajic
J. Gurlica
Croatia
35 J. Gurlica
E. Shabani
Substitution
Albania
77 E. Shabani
?. Butić
Substitution
27 ?. Butić
R. Gonzales
Colombia
10 R. Gonzales
L. Banovec
Substitution
Croatia
28 L. Banovec
J. Puljić
Croatia
21 J. Puljić
Pitch
D. Matijaš
Croatia
71 D. Matijaš
M. Čabraja
Croatia
19 M. Čabraja
J. Filipović
Croatia
4 J. Filipović
S. Peric
Austria
45 S. Peric
B. Bogojević
Substitution
Croatia
25 B. Bogojević
A. Kavelj
Croatia
36 A. Kavelj
I. Pozo La Rosa
Spain
8 I. Pozo La Rosa
Ž. Trontelj
Slovenia
22 Ž. Trontelj
D. Pavičić
Croatia
24 D. Pavičić
J. Pršir
Substitution
Croatia
10 J. Pršir
A. Erceg
Croatia
50 A. Erceg

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 22, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Gradski vrt
Capacity :
1000
Attendance :
323
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Stipe Brajković
Vinko Podrug
Ivana Martinčić
Mateo Erceg

Statistics

Possession
Vukovar
48%
Gorica
52%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 4
5 Shots 6
83 Dangerous attacks 81
49 Possession 51
2 Corners 2
10 Free kicks 14
5 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

25 Throwins 21
0 Assists 1
11 Goal Kicks 9
35 Dribble Attempts 21
19 Successful Dribbles 10
0 Hit Woodwork 1
6 Substitutions 2
54 Successful Dribbles Percentage 48
1 Penalties 1

Attacking

130 Attacks 137
0 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

12 Successful Long Passes 27
277 Successful Passes 312
30 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
76 Successful Passes Percentage 80
7 Key Passes 13
366 Passes 389
40 Long Passes 61

Defensive

20 Tackles 29
5 Interceptions 15
68 Duels Won 71
6 Saves 1

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 2
12 Total Crosses 14

Discipline

15 Fouls 11
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Mateo Erceg

Starting XI ▼

1
Marino Bulat
Marino Bulat Goalkeeper
6.72
5
Nikita Vlasenko
Nikita Vlasenko Defender
6.32
14
Moreno Zivkovic
Moreno Zivkovic Defender
6.6
20
Kristijan Cabrajic
Kristijan Cabrajic Defender
6.54
7
Kerim Çalhanoğlu
Kerim Çalhanoğlu
Defender32'
6.74
34
Mario Tadic
Mario Tadic Defender
6.69
8
Antonio Bosec
Antonio Bosec
Defender46'
6.23
10
Robin González
Robin González Midfielder
6.87
27
Simun Butic
Simun Butic Midfielder
6.57
19
Alen Jurilj
Alen Jurilj
Midfielder76'
6.64
28
Lovro Banovec
Lovro Banovec Midfielder
6.75
11
Lovre Kulusic
Lovre Kulusic
Attacker59'
6.33
35
Jakov Gurlica
Jakov Gurlica Midfielder
6.9
77
Eniss Shabani
Eniss Shabani Midfielder
6.71
39
Pocholo Bugas
Pocholo Bugas
Attacker76'
6.47
21
Jakov Puljic
Jakov Puljic Attacker
7
Referee : Mateo Erceg

Starting XI ▼

71
Davor Matijas
Davor Matijas Goalkeeper
6.76
4
Jakov Filipovic
Jakov Filipovic Defender
6.82
19
Marijan Cabraja
Marijan Cabraja Defender
7.04
45
Stefan Peric
Stefan Peric Defender
6.65
8
Iker Pozo
Iker Pozo Midfielder
7.09
22
Zan Trontelj
Zan Trontelj Midfielder
6.92
25
Bruno Bogojevic
Bruno Bogojevic Midfielder
6.68
7
Ognjen Bakic
Ognjen Bakic
Midfielder81'
6.63
36
Ante Kavelj
Ante Kavelj Midfielder
6.84
10
Jurica Prsir
Jurica Prsir Attacker
6.92
64
Théo Epailly
Théo Epailly
Attacker89'
6.6
24
Domagoj Pavicic
Domagoj Pavicic Attacker
6.77
50
Ante Erceg
Ante Erceg Attacker
6.84

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Théo Epailly → Jurica Prsir
7th Substitution
Event
Robin González
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
85'
85'
Event
Marijan Cabraja
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
81'
Event
Ognjen Bakic → Bruno Bogojevic
6th Substitution
Event
Alen Jurilj → Simun Butic
5th Substitution
76'
Event
Pocholo Bugas → Eniss Shabani
4th Substitution
76'
66'
Event
Ante Erceg
Right foot shot / 2nd Penalty
Event
Eniss Shabani
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
63'
Event
Lovre Kulusic → Lovro Banovec
3rd Substitution
59'
Event
Antonio Bosec → Mario Tadic
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Jakov Puljic
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
45+4'
Event
Eniss Shabani
Penalty awarded
45+1'
Event
Mario Tadic
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
41'
Event
Kerim Çalhanoğlu → Kristijan Cabrajic
1st Substitution
32'
Event
Moreno Zivkovic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
30'
Event
Kristijan Cabrajic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
27'
19'
Event
Zan Trontelj
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Gorica's 2-1 triumph at Vukovar cements their status as the division's stronger contender, navigating a level halftime deadlock with second-half precision. Even possession reflected a tactical stalemate broken by Gorica's superior finishing, absent any disciplinary interruptions. This minimal-deviation result validates their pre-match favoritism, offering a blueprint for away success through composure and efficiency. Vukovar departs with heads high after a gritty showing, yet the gap in quality proved decisive. Gorica builds momentum, poised for higher ambitions, while exposing Vukovar's need for attacking potency.

Vukovar vs Gorica preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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