Vukovar vs Dinamo Zagreb Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia

Stadion Gradski vrt Mon, 13 Apr - 4:00 PM

1. HNL

Vukovar Vukovar

Dinamo Zagreb GNK

Full Time Mon, 13 Apr 4:00 PM

Round 29 Regular Season

Jakov Puljic - 63'

Dion Beljo - 90+5', 51' (P), 32'

Josip Elez - 68' (Own Goal)

CONTEXT

The match between Vukovar and Dinamo Zagreb is finished, ending with a full-time score of 1-4. Dinamo Zagreb produced a commanding away victory that matched their pre-match status as the clear stronger side. Expectations before kickoff gave the visitors roughly a 78 percent chance of success, with Vukovar rated at only 7 percent. The outcome showed significant deviation in Dinamo’s favor, as they converted control into a multi-goal margin beyond even the most optimistic forecasts. Dinamo enjoyed 67 percent possession against Vukovar’s 33 percent and used that territorial dominance to score three second-half goals after leading 1-0 at the interval. No red cards were issued and the contest remained free of major disciplinary turning points. Efficiency stayed in line with expectations throughout, and the result ultimately aligned with the pre-match projection for a Dinamo win. The visitors proved clinical in attack while Vukovar struggled to create meaningful threats despite home advantage.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Dinamo Zagreb showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

P. Kolarić

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

I. Starčević

1st Assistant

V. Đurak

2nd Assistant

Oliver Romić

4th Official

T. Stipić

M. Kovačević

0.84

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

2.47

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

1 - 0 - 2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Vukovar

7.02%

Draw

14.61%

Dinamo Zagreb

78.37%

Movement

Changes since opening

Vukovar

+6.78%

Draw

+12.69%

Dinamo Zagreb

-19.47%

Team Power Ranking

15.47

41.71

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Vukovar

Dinamo Zagreb

Power Score

15.47

41.71

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Vukovar — Opponent-weighted form score

Dinamo Zagreb — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Vukovar Dinamo Zagreb

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Vukovar

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Dinamo Zagreb

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Vukovar ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Dinamo Zagreb

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

41.36

30.30

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

30.30

41.36

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Vukovar +1.13 Efficiency Index

Dinamo Zagreb -1.13 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Vukovar

Dinamo Zagreb

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Vukovar ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Dinamo Zagreb

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Vukovar Dinamo Zagreb

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 1.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Vukovar Dinamo Zagreb

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

1.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Vukovar

Dinamo Zagreb

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Vukovar

Dinamo Zagreb

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Vukovar Dinamo Zagreb

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Vukovar Dinamo Zagreb

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Vukovar

Dinamo Zagreb

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

GNK had peak pressure around 12'.
GNK started the game with stronger pressure.

Vukovar Pressure GNK Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: GNK reached the top pressure at 12' (74.03).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Vukovar Vukovar Home

3 matches

Dinamo Zagreb GNK Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-4

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-04-14T00:00:43+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

Match Formation 4-3-3

1 M. Bulat

8 A. Bosec

5 N. Vlasenko

26 J. Elez

20 K. Cabrajic

35 J. Gurlica

77 E. Shabani

27 ?. Butić

10 R. Gonzales

28 L. Banovec

21 J. Puljić

44 I. Filipović

3 B. Goda

26 S. McKenna

36 S. Domínguez Viloria

15 N. Galesic

8 M. Zajc

27 J. Mišić

7 L. Stojković

10 G. Vidović

9 D. Dijon

71 M. Bakrar

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 13, 2026, 04:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 29 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadion Gradski vrt

Capacity :

1000

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Patrik Kolarić

Ivan Starčević

Vedran Đurak

Oliver Romić

Statistics

Possession

Vukovar

37%

GNK

63%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 4

3 Big Chances Created 2

4 Shots 6

53 Dangerous attacks 106

33 Possession 67

3 Corners 6

4 Free kicks 13

1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

8 Goal Kicks 7

17 Dribble Attempts 15

17 Throwins 20

14 Successful Dribbles 13

82 Successful Dribbles Percentage 87

1 Assists 2

5 Substitutions 4

0 Penalties 1

2 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

92 Attacks 179

2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

165 Successful Passes 407

36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 51

19 Successful Long Passes 20

242 Passes 492

53 Long Passes 39

68 Successful Passes Percentage 83

Defensive

10 Tackles 20

44 Duels Won 56

10 Interceptions 14

4 Saves 3

Build-up

10 Total Crosses 21

2 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

14 Fouls 4

0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Patrik Kolarić

Manager ▼

T. Stipić Coach

Starting XI ▼

Marino Bulat Goalkeeper

6.76

Nikita Vlasenko Defender

5.6

Antonio Bosec Defender

6.3

Luka Klanac

Attacker75'

6.53

Kristijan Cabrajic Defender

6.52

Mario Tičinović

Defender88'

6.65

Josip Elez Defender

6.52

Robin González Midfielder

6.9

Simun Butic Midfielder

6.57

Pocholo Bugas

Attacker82'

6.45

Lovro Banovec Midfielder

6.79

Alen Jurilj

Midfielder75'

6.66

Jakov Gurlica Midfielder

6.9

Josip Špoljarić

Midfielder88'

6.44

Eniss Shabani Midfielder

6.7

Jakov Puljic Attacker

6.97

Substitutes ▼

Alen Jurilj

Midfielder75'

6.66

Luka Klanac

Attacker75'

6.53

Pocholo Bugas

Attacker82'

6.45

Mario Tičinović

Defender88'

6.65

Josip Špoljarić

Midfielder88'

6.44

Bench ▼

Dominik Damjanović Goalkeeper

Antonio Đaković Goalkeeper

7.47

Kerim Çalhanoğlu Defender

6.72

Halid Šabanović Defender

6.54

Mario Tadic Defender

6.69

Jakov Biljan Midfielder

6.55

Referee : Patrik Kolarić