Vitória Guimarães vs Rio Ave Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques Sat, 25 Apr - 7:30 PM
Liga Portugal
Vitória Guimarães VSC
2 Winner 0
Rio Ave RAFC
Full Time Sat, 25 Apr 7:30 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
Tony Strata - 90+5'
Samu - 72'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Vitória Guimarães secured a comfortable 2-0 victory over Rio Ave in a Primeira Liga encounter, with both goals arriving after a goalless first half. The home side controlled proceedings, holding 56% possession and creating the bulk of chances without facing significant threats. Rio Ave struggled to penetrate, managing just 44% of the ball but failing to test the goalkeeper meaningfully. Vitória Guimarães, tipped as the stronger outfit, delivered on expectations through clinical finishing in the second period, maintaining a clean sheet throughout. No red cards disrupted the flow, allowing a straightforward progression to the final whistle. This result underscores the hosts' dominance, aligning closely with pre-match assessments where minimal structural deviations were evident. The efficiency remained in line, reflecting a disciplined performance devoid of major tactical shifts or second-half adjustments. Vitória Guimarães' win reinforces their solid home form, extending their positive run.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Vitória Guimarães showed minimal 6.6% deviation from expectations in their 2-0 win.
  • Efficiency shift: Both teams operated in line with efficiency norms throughout the match.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing direct alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: No xG data available to evaluate against expectations.
  • Event impact: No significant events like red cards influenced the 2-0 result.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant zero distortion to the match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Vitória Guimarães G. Moreira Lameiras
G. Moreira Lameiras
VS
Rio Ave S. Silaidopoulos
S. Silaidopoulos
1.27
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.18
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gil Vicente Rank: W
AVS Rank: D
Tondela Rank: W
Benfica Rank: L
Famalicão Rank: L
Santa Clara Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
AVS Rank: D
Santa Clara Rank: W
Alverca Rank: L
Estoril Rank: W
Estrela Amadora Rank: W
Tondela Rank: W
18
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
18 - 9 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Vitória Guimarães
93.35%
Draw
6.41%
Away Rio Ave
0.24%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
21.88
20.96
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Vitória Guimarães
Rio Ave
Power Score
21.88
20.96
League Position
7
12
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Vitória Guimarães — Opponent-weighted form score
Rio Ave — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Vitória Guimarães Rio Ave

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Vitória Guimarães

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rio Ave

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Vitória Guimarães ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rio Ave
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Vitória Guimarães Rio Ave
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Vitória Guimarães Rio Ave
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Vitória Guimarães
Rio Ave
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Vitória Guimarães
vs
Rio Ave
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Vitória Guimarães Rio Ave
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Vitória Guimarães 0.28
Rio Ave 0.15
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Vitória Guimarães Rio Ave
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Vitória Guimarães 0.00
Rio Ave 0.05
Vitória Guimarães
Rio Ave
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • RAFC had peak pressure around 71'.
  • VSC started the game with stronger pressure.
VSC Pressure RAFC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: RAFC reached the top pressure at 71' (87.75).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 35 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Vitória Guimarães VSC Home
35 matches
Rio Ave RAFC Away
Match Record
18
Wins
8
9
Draws
9
8
Losses
18
Goals
48
Goals Scored
30
30
Goals Conceded
48
+18
Goal Difference
-18

Data last updated: 2026-04-25T19:00:36+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
C. da Silva
Brazil
27 C. da Silva
M. Gomes Ferreira Magalhães
Substitution
Portugal
2 M. Gomes Ferreira Magalhães
O. Rivas Viondi
Spain
4 O. Rivas Viondi
T. Balieiro Lourenço de Carvalho
Brazil
28 T. Balieiro Lourenço de Carvalho
João Mendes
Portugal
13 João Mendes
B. Mambuene Mukendi
Angola
16 B. Mambuene Mukendi
D. Lobão Sousa
Substitution
Portugal
23 D. Lobão Sousa
O. Camara
Substitution
France
19 O. Camara
F. Amorim Silva
Portugal
20 F. Amorim Silva
N. Jose Saviolo
Substitution
48 N. Jose Saviolo
G. da Silva Cunha
Substitution
Brazil
11 G. da Silva Cunha
Pitch
C. Miszta
Poland
1 C. Miszta
N. Abby
Substitution
England
6 N. Abby
G. Teixeira Lopes da Conceição
39 G. Teixeira Lopes da Conceição
J. Brabec
Czech Republic
32 J. Brabec
M. Vrousai
Greece
17 M. Vrousai
A. Ntoi
Greece
5 A. Ntoi
T. Nikitscher
Substitution
Hungary
44 T. Nikitscher
D. Špikić
Substitution
Croatia
18 D. Špikić
O. Pohlmann
Substitution
Germany
80 O. Pohlmann
D. Bezerra de Oliveira
Substitution
Brazil
7 D. Bezerra de Oliveira
J. Miller Blesa
Spain
11 J. Miller Blesa

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 25, 2026, 07:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques
Capacity :
30008
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
David Rafael Oliveira Silva
Carlos Campos
Nélson Cunha
Diogo Araújo

Statistics

Possession
VSC
54%
RAFC
46%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 2
3 Shots 4
39 Dangerous attacks 34
56 Possession 44
3 Corners 5
13 Free kicks 7
4 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

14 Dribble Attempts 16
6 Successful Dribbles 6
21 Throwins 22
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
12 Successful Headers 22
82 Ball Safe 97
4 Goal Kicks 11
5 Substitutions 5
2 Injuries 1
7 Goal Attempts 5
2 Assists 0

Attacking

119 Attacks 90
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

15 Successful Long Passes 29
393 Successful Passes 292
54 Long Passes 64
28 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45
81 Successful Passes Percentage 76
488 Passes 383
9 Key Passes 5

Defensive

9 Interceptions 11
4 Saves 1
53 Duels Won 52
22 Tackles 19

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 4
20 Total Crosses 15

Discipline

7 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : David Rafael Oliveira Silva

Starting XI ▼

27
Charles
Charles Goalkeeper
6.75
2
Maga
Maga Defender
6.68
66
Tony Strata
Tony Strata
Defender58'
6.64
4
Óscar Rivas
Óscar Rivas Defender
7.01
13
João Mendes
João Mendes Defender
6.77
28
Thiago Balieiro
Thiago Balieiro Defender
6.77
16
Beni Mukendi
Beni Mukendi Midfielder
6.84
19
Oumar Camara
Oumar Camara Midfielder
6.73
88
Miguel Nogueira
Miguel Nogueira
Midfielder59'
6.75
20
Samu
Samu Midfielder
6.91
23
Diogo Sousa
Diogo Sousa Midfielder
6.82
30
Gonçalo Nogueira
Gonçalo Nogueira
Midfielder58'
6.86
48
Noah Jose Saviolo
Noah Jose Saviolo Midfielder
6.76
18
Telmo Arcanjo
Telmo Arcanjo
Midfielder68'
6.77
11
Gustavo Silva
Gustavo Silva Attacker
6.88
7
Nélson Oliveira
Nélson Oliveira
Attacker81'
6.56
Referee : David Rafael Oliveira Silva

Starting XI ▼

1
Cezary Miszta
Cezary Miszta Goalkeeper
7
6
Nelson Abbey
Nelson Abbey Defender
6.59
77
Omar Richards
Omar Richards
Defender77'
6.62
17
Marios Vrousai
Marios Vrousai Defender
7.07
32
Jakub Brabec
Jakub Brabec Defender
6.84
39
Gustavo Mancha
Gustavo Mancha Defender
6.71
5
Andreas Ntoi
Andreas Ntoi Midfielder
6.6
7
Diogo Bezerra
Diogo Bezerra Midfielder
6.75
25
Rafael Lobato
Rafael Lobato
Attacker86'
6.45
18
Dario Spikic
Dario Spikic Midfielder
6.69
20
João Tomé
João Tomé
Defender69'
6.51
44
Tamás Nikitscher
Tamás Nikitscher Midfielder
6.65
9
Tamble Monteiro
Tamble Monteiro
Attacker77'
6.67
80
Ole Pohlmann
Ole Pohlmann Midfielder
6.65
8
Ryan
Ryan
Midfielder69'
6.65
11
Jalen Blesa
Jalen Blesa Attacker
7.13

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Tony Strata
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
90+5'
Event
Tony Strata
Time wasting / 8th Yellowcard
90+3'
86'
Event
Rafael Lobato → Diogo Bezerra
10th Substitution
Event
Nélson Oliveira → Gustavo Silva
9th Substitution
81'
Event
Samu
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
80'
80'
Event
11th Yellowcard
79'
Event
Diogo Bezerra
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
77'
Event
Tamble Monteiro → Tamás Nikitscher
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Omar Richards → Nelson Abbey
8th Substitution
Event
Samu
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
72'
69'
Event
Ryan → Ole Pohlmann
5th Substitution
69'
Event
João Tomé → Dario Spikic
6th Substitution
Event
Telmo Arcanjo → Noah Jose Saviolo
4th Substitution
68'
Event
10th Yellowcard
63'
Event
Thiago Balieiro
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
62'
62'
Event
9th Yellowcard
61'
Event
Tamás Nikitscher
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
60'
Event
Gustavo Mancha
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Miguel Nogueira → Oumar Camara
3rd Substitution
59'
Event
Gonçalo Nogueira → Diogo Sousa
1st Substitution
58'
Event
Tony Strata → Maga
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Gustavo Silva
Simulation / 2nd Yellowcard
57'
1ST-HALF
28'
Event
Andreas Ntoi
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Tamble Monteiro's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tony Strata of Vitoria Guimaraes receives a yellow card.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 7 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Rafael Lobato from Rio Ave wins a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Rafael Lobato from Rio Ave wins a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Attempt Attempt
Rafael Lobato's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is saved in the center of the goal by Charles. The attempt was assisted by Andreas Ntoi.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Vitoria Guimaraes lead 2-0 against Rio Ave as Tony Strata scores with a right-footed shot from outside the box.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Vitoria Guimaraes winning 2-0 against Rio Ave.
88
Update Update
Marios Vrousai of Rio Ave is caught offside.
83
Update Update
Óscar Rivas from Vitoria Guimaraes wins a free kick in the defensive half.
83
Update Update
Foul by Diogo Bezerra of Rio Ave.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Rio Ave after a foul by Tony Strata.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Vitoria Guimaraes: Nélson Oliveira comes on for Gustavo Silva due to an injury.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Diogo Bezerra from Rio Ave receives a yellow card.
80
Update Update
Foul by Samu of Vitoria Guimaraes.
80
Update Update
João Tomé wins a free kick for Rio Ave in the defensive half.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Samu from Vitoria Guimaraes receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
80
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Gustavo Silva from Vitoria Guimaraes.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Rio Ave: Omar Richards comes on for Nelson Abbey.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Rio Ave: Tamble Monteiro comes on for Tamás Nikitscher.
76
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Samu from Vitoria Guimaraes with a left-footed shot from the center of the box.
72
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Vitoria Guimaraes leads 1-0 against Rio Ave after Samu scores with a left-footed shot from very close range.
72
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Vitoria Guimaraes leads Rio Ave 1-0. Samu scores for Vitoria Guimaraes with a left-footed shot from very close range into the bottom left corner.
71
Update Update
Gonçalo Nogueira from Vitoria Guimaraes wins a free kick in the attacking half.
71
Update Update
Foul committed by Ryan Guilherme of Rio Ave.
70
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Jalen Blesa of Rio Ave has a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the center of the goal by Charles of Vitoria Guimaraes. The assist came from Marios Vrousai.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Rio Ave: João Tomé comes on for Dario Spikic.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Rio Ave: Ryan Guilherme comes on for Olé Pohlmann.
69
Update Update
Foul committed by Ryan Guilherme of Rio Ave.
69
Update Update
Beni from Vitoria Guimaraes wins a free kick in the defensive half.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Vitoria Guimaraes: Telmo Arcanjo comes on for Noah Saviolo due to an injury.
67
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Rio Ave after a concession by Charles.
67
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Olé Pohlmann from Rio Ave has a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved in the center of the goal by Charles from Vitoria Guimaraes, assisted by Diogo Bezerra.
63
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Noah Saviolo of Vitoria Guimaraes.
63
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Jalen Blesa of Rio Ave.
62
Attempt Attempt
Samu's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked.
62
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Thiago Balieiro of Vitoria Guimaraes receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
62
Update Update
Jalen Blesa from Rio Ave wins a free kick in the attacking half.
62
Attempt Attempt
Noah Saviolo's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Samu.
62
Update Update
Foul committed by Thiago Balieiro of Vitoria Guimaraes.
61
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tamás Nikitscher from Rio Ave receives a yellow card for a foul.
60
Update Update
Samu from Vitoria Guimaraes wins a free kick in the defensive half.
60
Update Update
Foul committed by Tamás Nikitscher of Rio Ave.
60
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gustavo Mancha from Rio Ave receives a yellow card.
59
Update Update
Gustavo Silva from Vitoria Guimaraes is caught offside.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Vitoria Guimaraes: Gonçalo Nogueira comes on for Diogo Sousa.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Vitoria Guimaraes: Miguel Nogueira comes on for Oumar Camara.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Vitoria Guimaraes: Tony Strata comes on for Miguel Maga.
57
Update Update
Foul committed by Gustavo Silva of Vitoria Guimaraes.
57
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gustavo Silva from Vitoria Guimaraes receives a yellow card.
56
Update Update
Marios Vrousai from Rio Ave wins a free kick on the right wing.
56
Update Update
Foul committed by Beni of Vitoria Guimaraes.
56
Update Update
Foul by Beni of Vitoria Guimaraes.
53
Update Update
Foul committed by Diogo Bezerra of Rio Ave.
53
Update Update
João Mendes from Vitoria Guimaraes wins a free kick in the defensive half.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Rio Ave after a foul by Thiago Balieiro.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Rio Ave after a concession by Charles.
51
Attempt Attempt
Oumar Camara from Vitoria Guimaraes misses an attempt with a left-footed shot from outside the box, sending it high and wide to the left. Gustavo Silva provided the assist.
48
Attempt Attempt
João Mendes from Vitoria Guimaraes misses an attempt with a left-footed shot from outside the box, sending it high and wide to the right. The assist came from Gustavo Silva.
47
Update Update
Thiago Balieiro from Vitoria Guimaraes wins a free kick in the defensive half.
47
Update Update
Foul committed by Diogo Bezerra of Rio Ave.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Vitoria Guimaraes and Rio Ave tied at 0-0.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Vitoria Guimaraes after a concession by Nelson Abbey.
45
Corner Corner
Vitoria Guimaraes win a corner after Nelson Abbey concedes.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the match score at 0-0 between Vitoria Guimaraes and Rio Ave.
41
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Vitoria Guimaraes after a concession by Cezary Pawet Miszta.
41
Corner Corner
Vitoria Guimaraes wins a corner after Cezary Pawet Miszta concedes.
29
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Gustavo Silva from Vitoria Guimaraes.
28
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Andreas Ntoi from Rio Ave receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
28
Update Update
Gustavo Silva from Vitoria Guimaraes is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
28
Update Update
Gustavo Silva from Vitoria Guimaraes wins a free kick in the defensive half.
26
Update Update
Diogo Sousa from Vitoria Guimaraes wins a free kick on the left wing.
26
Update Update
Foul committed by Tamás Nikitscher of Rio Ave.
25
Update Update
Olé Pohlmann from Rio Ave wins a free kick in the defensive half.
25
Update Update
Olé Pohlmann from Rio Ave wins a free kick in the defensive half.
23
Update Update
Nelson Abbey of Rio Ave is caught offside.
21
Corner Corner
Vitoria Guimaraes wins a corner after Tamás Nikitscher concedes.
20
Update Update
Miguel Maga from Vitoria Guimaraes wins a free kick on the right wing.
20
Update Update
Foul committed by Nelson Abbey of Rio Ave.
18
Update Update
Noah Saviolo from Vitoria Guimaraes wins a free kick in the defensive half.
18
Update Update
Foul committed by Tamás Nikitscher of Rio Ave.
17
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Rio Ave after Óscar Rivas concedes.
16
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Vitoria Guimaraes after a concession by Andreas Ntoi.
14
Update Update
Samu from Vitoria Guimaraes wins a free kick in the defensive half.
14
Update Update
Foul committed by Tamás Nikitscher of Rio Ave.
13
Update Update
Nelson Abbey from Rio Ave wins a free kick in the defensive half.
12
Attempt Attempt
Oumar Camara's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is saved.
12
Corner Corner
Vitoria Guimaraes wins a corner after Cezary Pawet Miszta concedes.
8
Update Update
Handball by Olé Pohlmann for Rio Ave.
4
Update Update
Noah Saviolo from Vitoria Guimaraes wins a free kick on the left wing.
4
Update Update
Noah Saviolo from Vitoria Guimaraes wins a free kick on the left wing.

CONCLUSION

Vitória Guimarães' 2-0 triumph over Rio Ave was a textbook display of home superiority, converting second-half opportunities after a cautious opening 45 minutes. Dominating possession at 56% and keeping a clean sheet highlighted their defensive resilience and attacking poise. Rio Ave's inability to capitalize on limited possession exposed their struggles away from home. This minimal-deviation result, fully market-aligned and efficiency-consistent, boosts Vitória Guimarães' confidence heading into upcoming fixtures. Without disruptive events, the stronger team's quality prevailed, solidifying their position in the league standings and setting a positive tone for the campaign's next phase.

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