Vitória Guimarães vs Casa Pia Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques Mon, 11 May - 7:15 PM
Liga Portugal
Vitória Guimarães VSC
0 Winner 1
Casa Pia CPAC
Full Time Mon, 11 May 7:15 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
|
Goal
Gaizka Larrazabal - 86'

CONTEXT

Vitória Guimarães hosted Casa Pia in a match that ended 0-1 in favor of the visitors, marking an upset as the home side was deemed stronger. The hosts controlled possession at 71% to Casa Pia's 29%, yet failed to score despite their dominance. Halftime arrived goalless at 0-0, with the decisive goal coming in the second half for Casa Pia. No red cards disrupted play, and no notable second-half adjustments were made by either team. This outcome reflected a minimal structural deviation of 5.9% towards Casa Pia, staying in line with efficiency expectations. Without xG data available, deeper chance quality analysis remains limited, but the result highlights Casa Pia's clinical finishing against a possession-heavy opponent unable to break through.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Result showed minimal 5.9% structural deviation favoring Casa Pia.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable without underlying data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards produced no distortion in scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

L. Branco Godinho

Portugal
Fouls / match 0
Yellow cards / match 0
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

L. Mateus Filipe

4th Official

Portugal

R. Martins Teixeira

1st Assistant

Portugal

P. Mota

2nd Assistant

Portugal

League averages

Liga Portugal Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 24.01
Yellow cards / match 4.38
Red cards / match 0.16
Penalties / match 0.37
Vitória Guimarães G. Moreira Lameiras
G. Moreira Lameiras
VS
Casa Pia Á. Pacheco
Á. Pacheco
1.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.81
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting CP Rank: 88 L
Rio Ave Rank: 64 W
Gil Vicente Rank: 69 W
AVS Rank: 60 D
Tondela Rank: 62 W
Benfica Rank: 87 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Tondela Rank: 60 L
Gil Vicente Rank: 69 L
Sporting Braga Rank: 81 L
Santa Clara Rank: 64 D
Alverca Rank: 67 L
Benfica Rank: 87 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 4 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Vitória Guimarães
0.21%
Draw
5.65%
Away Casa Pia
94.14%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.31
62.94
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Vitória Guimarães
Casa Pia
Power Score
71.31
62.94
League Position
7
16
Global Rank
180
407

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Vitória Guimarães — Opponent-weighted form score
Casa Pia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Vitória Guimarães Casa Pia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Vitória Guimarães

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Casa Pia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Vitória Guimarães ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Casa Pia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.86
43.10
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
43.10
24.86
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Vitória Guimarães — Efficiency Index
vs
Casa Pia — Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Vitória Guimarães
Casa Pia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Vitória Guimarães ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Casa Pia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Vitória Guimarães Casa Pia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Vitória Guimarães Casa Pia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Vitória Guimarães
Casa Pia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Vitória Guimarães
vs
Casa Pia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Vitória Guimarães Casa Pia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Vitória Guimarães 0.28
Casa Pia 0.37
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Vitória Guimarães Casa Pia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Vitória Guimarães 0.03
Casa Pia 0.00
Vitória Guimarães
Casa Pia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • VSC had peak pressure around 76'.
  • CPAC started the game with stronger pressure.
VSC Pressure CPAC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: VSC reached the top pressure at 76' (77.65).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Vitória Guimarães VSC Home
7 matches
Casa Pia CPAC Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
4
Draws
4
2
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
2
-2
Goal Difference
+2

Data last updated: 2026-05-12T00:03:37+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
C. da Silva
Brazil
27 C. da Silva
T. Strata
Romania
66 T. Strata
O. Rivas Viondi
Spain
4 O. Rivas Viondi
R. Abascal Barros
Uruguay
26 R. Abascal Barros
F. Lagos Dias
82 F. Lagos Dias
G. Teixeira Nogueira
Substitution
Portugal
30 G. Teixeira Nogueira
B. Mambuene Mukendi
Angola
16 B. Mambuene Mukendi
J. Costa Nogueira
Substitution
Portugal
88 J. Costa Nogueira
F. Amorim Silva
Substitution
Portugal
20 F. Amorim Silva
N. Jose Saviolo
48 N. Jose Saviolo
G. da Silva Cunha
Substitution
Brazil
11 G. da Silva Cunha
Pitch
P. Sequeira Mejías
Costa Rica
1 P. Sequeira Mejías
David Sousa
Brazil
43 David Sousa
D. Bandeira
Angola
3 D. Bandeira
J. Goulart Silva
Portugal
4 J. Goulart Silva
P. Silva Rosas
Portugal
75 P. Silva Rosas
S. Pérez Cardona
Colombia
42 S. Pérez Cardona
L. Ofori
Substitution
Ghana
80 L. Ofori
K. Prieto Machado
Substitution
Uruguay
19 K. Prieto Machado
J. Freitas Silva Marques
Portugal
11 J. Freitas Silva Marques
D. Rocha Livramento do Rosario
Substitution
Netherlands
10 D. Rocha Livramento do Rosario
G. Larrazabal Goikoetxea
Substitution
Spain
72 G. Larrazabal Goikoetxea

General Information

Date & Time :
May 11, 2026, 07:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques
Capacity :
30008
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Luí­s Carlos Mateus Filipe
Rui Miguel Martins Teixeira
Pedro Mota
Luis Miguel Branco Godinho

Statistics

Possession
VSC
65%
CPAC
35%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 1
8 Shots 4
53 Dangerous attacks 30
71 Possession 29
6 Corners 4
16 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

18 Throwins 20
41 Successful Dribbles Percentage 9
23 Successful Headers 17
5 Goal Kicks 10
17 Dribble Attempts 11
7 Successful Dribbles 1
4 Substitutions 5
83 Ball Safe 56
7 Goal Attempts 9
1 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Injuries 4
0 Assists 1

Attacking

94 Attacks 89
4 Counter Attacks 7
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

84 Successful Passes Percentage 61
10 Key Passes 6
499 Passes 207
56 Long Passes 59
418 Successful Passes 127
33 Successful Long Passes 19
59 Successful Long Passes Percentage 32

Defensive

8 Interceptions 16
17 Tackles 14
61 Duels Won 42
4 Saves 3

Build-up

31 Total Crosses 12
9 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

11 Fouls 16
3 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Luis Miguel Branco Godinho

Starting XI ▼

27
Charles
Charles Goalkeeper
4
Óscar Rivas
Óscar Rivas Defender
26
Rodrigo Abascal
Rodrigo Abascal Defender
66
Tony Strata
Tony Strata Defender
82
Francisco Dias
Francisco Dias Defender
16
Beni Mukendi
Beni Mukendi Midfielder
20
Samu
Samu Midfielder
90
A. Ndoye
A. Ndoye
Attacker81'
30
Gonçalo Nogueira
Gonçalo Nogueira Midfielder
—
Gonçalo Nogueira
60'
48
Noah Jose Saviolo
Noah Jose Saviolo Midfielder
88
Miguel Nogueira
Miguel Nogueira Midfielder
18
Telmo Arcanjo
Telmo Arcanjo
Midfielder60'
11
Gustavo Silva
Gustavo Silva Attacker
19
Oumar Camara
Oumar Camara
Attacker60'
Referee : Luis Miguel Branco Godinho

Starting XI ▼

1
Patrick Sequeira
Patrick Sequeira Goalkeeper
3
Kaly
Kaly Defender
4
João Goulart
João Goulart Defender
43
David Sousa
David Sousa Defender
19
Kevin Prieto
Kevin Prieto Midfielder
5
Abdu Conté
Abdu Conté
Defender74'
42
Seba Pérez
Seba Pérez Midfielder
75
Pedro Rosas
Pedro Rosas Midfielder
80
Lawrence Ofori
Lawrence Ofori Midfielder
13
Korede Osundina
Korede Osundina
Attacker46'
10
Dailon Livramento
Dailon Livramento Attacker
99
Clau Mendes
Clau Mendes
Attacker69'
11
João Marques
João Marques Attacker
72
Gaizka Larrazabal
Gaizka Larrazabal Attacker
6
José Fonte
José Fonte
Defender90+6'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
José Fonte → Gaizka Larrazabal
9th Substitution
90+5'
Event
Abdu Dafe → Clau Mendes
8th Substitution
86'
Event
Gaizka Larrazabal
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
A. Ndoye → Samu
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Beni Mukendi
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
78'
Event
Rodrigo Abascal
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
76'
74'
Event
Abdu Conté → Kevin Prieto
6th Substitution
69'
Event
Clau Mendes → Dailon Livramento
5th Substitution
Event
Oumar Camara → Gustavo Silva
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Zeega → Gonçalo Nogueira
4th Substitution
60'
Event
Telmo Arcanjo → Miguel Nogueira
2nd Substitution
60'
46'
Event
Korede Osundina → Lawrence Ofori
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
22'
Event
Pedro Rosas
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Abdu Dafe comes on for Claudio Mendes Vicente.
90
Attempt Attempt
Tony Strata takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Alioune Ndoye attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Update Update
Jose Miguel da Rocha Fonte is on, and Gaizka Larrazabal is off.
86
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Gaizka Larrazabal scores, making it 1-0.
86
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Abascal takes a left-footed shot but misses.
86
Attempt Attempt
Gaizka Larrazabal scores with a right-footed shot.
83
Attempt Attempt
Martim Guedes takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
81
Update Update
Alioune Ndoye comes on for Fabio Samuel Amorim Silva.
80
Attempt Attempt
Claudio Mendes Vicente takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
77
Attempt Attempt
Abdu Conte takes a left-footed shot but misses.
74
Update Update
Abdu Conte replaces Kevin Prieto.
74
Attempt Attempt
Martim Guedes takes a shot with his head but misses.
71
Attempt Attempt
Telmo Emanuel Gomes Arcanjo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
71
Attempt Attempt
Telmo Emanuel Gomes Arcanjo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
69
Substitution Substitution
Claudio Mendes Vicente is substituted for Dailon Rocha Livramento.
60
Update Update
Martim Guedes replaces Goncalo Nogueira.
60
Update Update
Oumar Camara replaces Gustavo Silva.
60
Attempt Attempt
Noah Saviolo takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
60
Update Update
Telmo Emanuel Gomes Arcanjo is on, and Miguel Nogueira is off.
59
Attempt Attempt
Fabio Samuel Amorim Silva takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
58
Attempt Attempt
Tony Strata takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
52
Attempt Attempt
Fabio Samuel Amorim Silva takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
50
Attempt Attempt
Sebastian Perez takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
46
Update Update
Korede Osundina replaces Lawrence Ofori.
42
Attempt Attempt
Gaizka Larrazabal takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
42
Attempt Attempt
Gaizka Larrazabal takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
42
Attempt Attempt
Gaizka Larrazabal takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
35
Attempt Attempt
Goncalo Nogueira takes a left-footed shot but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Lawrence Ofori takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
31
Attempt Attempt
David Sousa Albino attempts a header but misses the shot.
21
Attempt Attempt
Dailon Rocha Livramento takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
15
Attempt Attempt
Goncalo Nogueira's left-footed shot is blocked.
11
Attempt Attempt
Dailon Rocha Livramento attempts a header but misses the shot.
11
Attempt Attempt
Dailon Rocha Livramento takes a right-footed shot but misses.
10
Attempt Attempt
Gaizka Larrazabal's right-footed shot is blocked.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Luis Godinho.

CONCLUSION

Casa Pia's 0-1 victory over possession-dominant Vitória Guimarães underscores the value of efficiency in countering control. The home team's 71% possession yielded no goals, while the visitors capitalized on limited opportunities post a goalless halftime. Minimal deviation and market alignment suggest the result was within plausible bounds, unmarred by cards or tactical shifts. This performance boosts Casa Pia's standing, exposing Vitória Guimarães' need for better conversion from dominance.

Vitória Guimarães vs Casa Pia preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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