Virtus Entella vs Venezia Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Comunale Chiavari Sat, 11 Apr - 1:00 PM
Serie B
Virtus Entella ENT
1 – 1
Venezia VEN
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 1:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Bernat Guiu - 61'
Goal
|
Goal
Ridgeciano Haps - 13'
|
Red Card Joël Schingtienne 66'

CONTEXT

The match between Virtus Entella and Venezia is now finished, ending with a full-time score of 1-0 to Virtus Entella. This result marked a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, which had projected a far more balanced or different outcome. Venezia entered as the stronger side yet fell short, with the home victory representing a clear upset that did not align with the pre-match projection. Venezia held a substantial share of possession at 63 percent to Virtus Entella’s 37 percent, yet no expected goals data is available to further assess the balance of play. A red card to the away side created a numerical disadvantage that distorted second-half dynamics and contributed to the shift in momentum. The efficiency shift stayed in line with overall patterns, enabling the home team to capitalize and claim the win despite the visitors’ territorial control. Ultimately the outcome proved inconsistent with the anticipated result, as Virtus Entella overcame the pre-match outlook through resilient second-half adjustments following the red card. This leaves Venezia reflecting on a disappointing defeat after dominating large spells of the contest.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Virtus Entella showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Galipò

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Ricci

1st Assistant

A. El Filali

2nd Assistant

G. Restaldo

4th Official

Virtus Entella A. Chiappella
A. Chiappella
VS
Venezia G. Stroppa
G. Stroppa
1.08
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.27
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mantova Rank: L
Reggiana Rank: W
Pescara Rank: L
Avellino Rank: L
Südtirol Rank: W
Modena Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Juve Stabia Rank: W
Monza Rank: D
Calcio Padova Rank: W
Sampdoria Rank: D
Reggiana Rank: W
Avellino Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 2 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Virtus Entella
4.96%
Draw
90.56%
Away Venezia
4.48%

Movement

Changes since opening
Virtus Entella
-3.55%
Draw
+6.26%
Venezia
-2.72%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
22.84
38.03
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Virtus Entella
Venezia
Power Score
22.84
38.03
League Position
15
1
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Virtus Entella — Opponent-weighted form score
Venezia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Virtus Entella Venezia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Virtus Entella

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Venezia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Virtus Entella ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Venezia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.14
18.17
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.17
30.14
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Virtus Entella +1.14 Efficiency Index
vs
Venezia -1.14 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Virtus Entella
Venezia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Virtus Entella ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Venezia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Virtus Entella Venezia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Virtus Entella Venezia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Virtus Entella
Venezia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Virtus Entella
vs
Venezia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Virtus Entella Venezia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Virtus Entella 0.21
Venezia 0.34
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Virtus Entella Venezia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Virtus Entella 0.03
Venezia 0.02
Virtus Entella
Venezia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • VEN had peak pressure around 85'.
  • VEN started the game with stronger pressure.
ENT Pressure VEN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: VEN reached the top pressure at 85' (82.73).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Virtus Entella ENT Home
7 matches
Venezia VEN Away
Match Record
0
Wins
5
2
Draws
2
5
Losses
0
Goals
4
Goals Scored
12
12
Goals Conceded
4
-8
Goal Difference
+8

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:04:24+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-4-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
F. Del Frate
Italy
22 F. Del Frate
F. Mezzoni
Italy
94 F. Mezzoni
L. Parodi
Italy
23 L. Parodi
A. Tiritiello
Substitution
Italy
6 A. Tiritiello
I. Marconi
Italy
15 I. Marconi
S. Di Mario
Italy
26 S. Di Mario
A. Franzoni
Italy
24 A. Franzoni
N. Squizzato
Substitution
Italy
5 N. Squizzato
L. Benedetti
Substitution
Italy
32 L. Benedetti
B. Guiu Vilanova
Substitution
Spain
11 B. Guiu Vilanova
L. Cuppone
Italy
10 L. Cuppone
Pitch
F. Stankovic
Serbia
1 F. Stankovic
M. Sverko
Croatia
33 M. Sverko
M. Svoboda
Austria
30 M. Svoboda
J. Schingtienne
Belgium
3 J. Schingtienne
R. Haps
Substitution
Suriname
5 R. Haps
I. Doumbia
Italy
8 I. Doumbia
G. Busio
United States
6 G. Busio
E. Pérez Muñoz
Substitution
Spain
71 E. Pérez Muñoz
A. Hainaut
France
18 A. Hainaut
A. Adorante
Substitution
Italy
9 A. Adorante
J. Zamora
Substitution
Ecuador
10 J. Zamora

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 11, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Comunale Chiavari
Capacity :
5500
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Simone Galipò
Marco Ricci
A. El Filali
Gabriele Restaldo

Statistics

Possession
ENT
42%
VEN
58%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 4
43 Dangerous attacks 29
37 Possession 63
4 Corners 2
21 Free kicks 13
3 Yellow Cards 4
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

6 Successful Dribbles 10
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
26 Throwins 18
7 Goal Kicks 6
14 Dribble Attempts 22
1 Assists 1
64 Ball Safe 81
6 Goal Attempts 8
1 Injuries 1
4 Substitutions 4

Attacking

94 Attacks 106
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40
22 Successful Long Passes 20
50 Long Passes 50
68 Successful Passes Percentage 80
231 Passes 421
156 Successful Passes 338
5 Key Passes 8

Defensive

12 Interceptions 8
22 Tackles 16
1 Saves 3

Build-up

21 Total Crosses 10
5 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

12 Fouls 20
1 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Simone Galipò

Starting XI ▼

22
Federico Del Frate
Federico Del Frate Goalkeeper
6
Andrea Tiritiello
Andrea Tiritiello Defender
3
Mattia Alborghetti
Mattia Alborghetti
Defender84'
15
Ivan Marconi
Ivan Marconi Defender
23
Luca Parodi
Luca Parodi Defender
26
Stefano Di Mario
Stefano Di Mario Defender
94
Francesco Mezzoni
Francesco Mezzoni Defender
5
Niccolò Squizzato
Niccolò Squizzato Midfielder
8
Nermin Karić
Nermin Karić
Midfielder75'
11
Bernat Guiu
Bernat Guiu Midfielder
27
Marco Dalla Vecchia
Marco Dalla Vecchia
Midfielder83'
24
Andrea Franzoni
Andrea Franzoni Midfielder
32
Leonardo Benedetti
Leonardo Benedetti Midfielder
17
Mattia Tirelli
Mattia Tirelli
Attacker83'
10
Luigi Cuppone
Luigi Cuppone Attacker
Referee : Simone Galipò

Starting XI ▼

1
Filip Stanković
Filip Stanković Goalkeeper
3
Joël Schingtienne
Joël Schingtienne Defender
30
Michael Svoboda
Michael Svoboda Defender
33
Marin Šverko
Marin Šverko Defender
5
Ridgeciano Haps
Ridgeciano Haps Midfielder
4
Bartol Franjic
Bartol Franjic
Defender86'
6
Gianluca Busio
Gianluca Busio Midfielder
8
Issa Doumbia
Issa Doumbia Midfielder
18
Antoine Hainaut
Antoine Hainaut Midfielder
71
Kike Pérez
Kike Pérez Midfielder
24
Nunzio Lella
Nunzio Lella
Midfielder90'
9
Andrea Adorante
Andrea Adorante Attacker
29
Lion Lauberbach
Lion Lauberbach
Attacker70'
10
John Yeboah
John Yeboah Attacker
21
Mattia Compagnon
Mattia Compagnon
Midfielder86'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ivan Marconi
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
90+3'
90+2'
Event
Marin Šverko
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90'
Event
Nunzio Lella → Kike Pérez
8th Substitution
Event
Luigi Cuppone
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
89'
Event
8th Yellowcard
89'
87'
Event
Kike Pérez
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
86'
Event
Mattia Compagnon → John Yeboah
6th Substitution
86'
Event
Bartol Franjic → Ridgeciano Haps
7th Substitution
Event
Mattia Alborghetti → Andrea Tiritiello
5th Substitution
84'
Event
Marco Dalla Vecchia → Bernat Guiu
4th Substitution
83'
Event
Mattia Tirelli → Leonardo Benedetti
3rd Substitution
83'
Event
Nermin Karić → Niccolò Squizzato
2nd Substitution
75'
Event
Niccolò Squizzato
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
74'
70'
Event
Lion Lauberbach → Andrea Adorante
1st Substitution
66'
Event
Joël Schingtienne
Violent conduct / 1st Redcard
Event
Bernat Guiu
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
61'
60'
Event
Ridgeciano Haps
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
43'
Event
Antoine Hainaut
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
27'
Event
Andrea Adorante
Goal disallowed
13'
Event
Ridgeciano Haps
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Virtus Entella exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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