Virtus Entella vs Reggiana Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Comunale Chiavari Sun, 22 Mar - 6:30 PM
Serie B
Virtus Entella ENT
3 Winner 0
Reggiana Reggiana
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 6:30 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Luigi Cuppone - 82'
Ivan Marconi - 65'
Andrea Franzoni - 5'
Goal
|
|
Red Card Andrija Novakovich 57'

CONTEXT

The match between Virtus Entella and Reggiana has officially finished, with Virtus Entella securing a 2-0 full-time victory. The hosts established their dominance early, taking a 1-0 lead into the half-time break before doubling their advantage later in the game. This outcome fully aligned with the pre-match market, which favored the stronger Virtus Entella side with a 45.5% win probability, compared to a 30.9% chance of a draw and just 23.6% for Reggiana. Ultimately, the result produced a significant deviation in favor of Virtus Entella. Virtus Entella controlled the overall tempo, registering 54% of the possession while restricting Reggiana to 46%. Although expected goals (xG) data was unavailable to measure exact chance creation or xG alignment, the overall efficiency shift was entirely in line with standard expectations for the fixture. The visitors' struggles were further compounded by severe disciplinary issues. Reggiana received a crucial red card, resulting in a distinct second-half distortion. Playing with a numerical disadvantage completely derailed any hopes of an away comeback, allowing Virtus Entella to comfortably navigate the remainder of the match and claim a straightforward victory.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Virtus Entella showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Virtus Entella A. Chiappella
A. Chiappella
VS
Reggiana L. Rubinacci
L. Rubinacci
1.04
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.96
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Südtirol Rank: 57 W
Modena Rank: 58 W
Monza Rank: 66 L
Catanzaro Rank: 61 L
Palermo Rank: 64 L
Cesena Rank: 55 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Venezia Rank: 68 L
Südtirol Rank: 56 L
Spezia Rank: 52 W
Avellino Rank: 52 D
Empoli Rank: 57 D
Mantova Rank: 52 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Virtus Entella
45.49%
Draw
30.92%
Away Reggiana
23.59%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
47.89
47.51
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Virtus Entella
Reggiana
Power Score
47.89
47.51
League Position
16
19
Global Rank
816
843

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Virtus Entella — Opponent-weighted form score
Reggiana — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Virtus Entella Reggiana

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Virtus Entella

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Reggiana

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Virtus Entella ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Reggiana
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.09
26.41
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.41
40.09
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Virtus Entella +1.32 Efficiency Index
vs
Reggiana -1.32 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Virtus Entella
Reggiana
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Virtus Entella ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Reggiana
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Virtus Entella Reggiana
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Virtus Entella Reggiana
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Virtus Entella
Reggiana
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Virtus Entella ENT Home
4 matches
Reggiana Reggiana Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
3
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:25:59+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
F. Del Frate
Italy
22 F. Del Frate
L. Parodi
Italy
23 (C) L. Parodi
A. Tiritiello
Italy
6 A. Tiritiello
I. Marconi
Substitution
Italy
15 I. Marconi
D. Bariti
Substitution
Italy
7 D. Bariti
A. Franzoni
Substitution
Italy
24 A. Franzoni
N. Squizzato
Italy
5 N. Squizzato
L. Benedetti
Substitution
Italy
32 L. Benedetti
S. Di Mario
Italy
26 S. Di Mario
M. Tirelli
Substitution
Italy
17 M. Tirelli
L. Cuppone
Italy
10 L. Cuppone
Pitch
A. Micai
Italy
1 A. Micai
M. Vanelli Lusuardi
Brazil
47 M. Vanelli Lusuardi
D. Quaranta
Italy
14 D. Quaranta
A. Papetti
Italy
2 A. Papetti
L. Libutti
Substitution
Italy
17 L. Libutti
M. Portanova
Italy
90 (C) M. Portanova
M. Bertagnoli
Substitution
Italy
26 M. Bertagnoli
T. Reinhart
Substitution
Argentina
16 T. Reinhart
M. Rover
Substitution
Italy
23 M. Rover
A. Novakovich
United States
9 A. Novakovich
N. Girma
Substitution
Switzerland
80 N. Girma

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 22, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Comunale Chiavari
Capacity :
5500
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Simone Sozza
Gamal Mokhtar
Marco Ceolin
Mario Di Loreto

Statistics

Possession
ENT
53%
Reggiana
47%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 2
14 Shots 6
53 Dangerous attacks 23
54 Possession 46
8 Corners 3
18 Free kicks 20
2 Yellow Cards 6
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

2 Assists 0
14 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
14 Throwins 18
7 Dribble Attempts 9
1 Successful Dribbles 4
7 Goal Kicks 7
2 Injuries 1
11 Goal Attempts 9
69 Ball Safe 67
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

102 Attacks 73
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

15 Key Passes 8
28 Successful Long Passes 30
78 Successful Passes Percentage 77
294 Successful Passes 252
375 Passes 328
67 Long Passes 53
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 57

Defensive

2 Interceptions 5
12 Tackles 11
3 Saves 6

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 2
21 Total Crosses 9

Discipline

15 Fouls 17
5 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Simone Sozza

Starting XI ▼

22
Federico Del Frate
Federico Del Frate Goalkeeper
7.21
6
Andrea Tiritiello
Andrea Tiritiello Defender
7.56
15
Ivan Marconi
Ivan Marconi Defender
7.63
3
Mattia Alborghetti
Mattia Alborghetti
Defender78'
6.45
23
Luca Parodi
Luca Parodi (C) Defender
6.67
5
Niccolò Squizzato
Niccolò Squizzato Midfielder
7.16
7
Davide Bariti
Davide Bariti Midfielder
7.04
57
Tommaso Del Lungo
Tommaso Del Lungo
Defender85'
6.44
24
Andrea Franzoni
Andrea Franzoni Midfielder
7.54
27
Marco Dalla Vecchia
Marco Dalla Vecchia
Midfielder85'
6.48
26
Stefano Di Mario
Stefano Di Mario Midfielder
6.86
32
Leonardo Benedetti
Leonardo Benedetti Midfielder
7.11
8
Nermin Karić
Nermin Karić
Midfielder79'
6.84
10
Luigi Cuppone
Luigi Cuppone Attacker
7.74
17
Mattia Tirelli
Mattia Tirelli Attacker
6.79
9
Davide Pio Stabile
Davide Pio Stabile
Attacker89'
Referee : Simone Sozza

Starting XI ▼

1
Alessandro Micai
Alessandro Micai Goalkeeper
7.78
2
Andrea Papetti
Andrea Papetti Defender
6.16
14
Danilo Quaranta
Danilo Quaranta Defender
6.66
47
Mateus Lusuardi
Mateus Lusuardi Defender
6.37
16
Tobías Reinhart
Tobías Reinhart Midfielder
6.84
93
Mathis Lambourde
Mathis Lambourde
Attacker84'
6.54
17
Lorenzo Libutti
Lorenzo Libutti Midfielder
6.2
10
Kleis Bozhanaj
Kleis Bozhanaj
Midfielder68'
6.63
23
Matteo Rover
Matteo Rover Midfielder
6.78
34
Francesco Vicari
Francesco Vicari
Defender78'
6.49
26
Massimo Bertagnoli
Massimo Bertagnoli Midfielder
6.66
8
Charlys
Charlys
Midfielder68'
6.49
90
Manolo Portanova
Manolo Portanova (C) Midfielder
6.74
9
Andrija Novakovich
Andrija Novakovich Attacker
5.86
80
Natan Girma
Natan Girma Attacker
6.62
77
Tommaso Fumagalli
Tommaso Fumagalli
Attacker78'
6.32

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Davide Pio Stabile → Mattia Tirelli
10th Substitution
89'
86'
Event
Tommaso Fumagalli
Foul / 8th Yellowcard
Event
Marco Dalla Vecchia → Andrea Franzoni
9th Substitution
85'
Event
Tommaso Del Lungo → Davide Bariti
8th Substitution
85'
84'
Event
Mathis Lambourde → Tobías Reinhart
7th Substitution
Event
Luigi Cuppone
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
82'
Event
Nermin Karić → Leonardo Benedetti
6th Substitution
79'
Event
Mattia Alborghetti → Ivan Marconi
3rd Substitution
78'
78'
Event
Tommaso Fumagalli → Natan Girma
4th Substitution
78'
Event
Francesco Vicari → Matteo Rover
5th Substitution
Event
Leonardo Benedetti
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
77'
76'
Event
Matteo Rover
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
70'
Event
Mateus Lusuardi
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
68'
Event
Kleis Bozhanaj → Lorenzo Libutti
1st Substitution
68'
Event
Charlys → Massimo Bertagnoli
2nd Substitution
Event
Ivan Marconi
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
65'
65'
Event
Alessandro Micai
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Ivan Marconi
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
61'
57'
Event
Andrija Novakovich
Violent conduct / 1st Redcard
56'
Event
Andrija Novakovich
Card adjusted
48'
Event
Andrea Papetti
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
23'
Event
Lorenzo Libutti
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Andrea Franzoni
Header / 1st Goal
5'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Virtus Entella exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.