Virtus Entella vs Carrarese Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Comunale Chiavari Fri, 8 May - 6:30 PM
Serie B
Virtus Entella ENT
2 Winner 1
Carrarese CAR
Full Time Fri, 8 May 6:30 PM
Round 38 Regular Season
Luigi Cuppone - 46'
Mattia Tirelli - 24'
Goal
|
Goal
Simone Zanon - 50'

CONTEXT

Virtus Entella claimed a 2-1 home win against Carrarese, defying pre-match perceptions of Carrarese as the stronger side. Entella struck first in the opening half, leading 1-0 at halftime despite holding only 43% possession. Carrarese controlled the ball with 57% but struggled to convert, allowing Entella to extend their lead in the second period. The visitors managed a late response but fell short of an equalizer. No red cards disrupted play, and the match featured no major tactical adjustments at halftime. Entella's clinical finishing proved decisive against a possession-dominant opponent, highlighting their resilience in a low-deviation outcome.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Structural deviation measured minimal at 3.5% favoring Virtus Entella.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match evaluations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment held true with the final outcome.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations undetermined from absent metrics.
  • Event impact: No notable events altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced no distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Fabbri

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

G. Grasso

2nd Assistant

Italy

L. Leorsini

4th Official

Italy

M. Belsanti

1st Assistant

Italy

League averages

Serie B Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 27.27
Yellow cards / match 4.04
Red cards / match 0.31
Penalties / match 0.29
Virtus Entella A. Chiappella
A. Chiappella
VS
Carrarese A. Calabro
A. Calabro
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.15
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bari 1908 Rank: 49 L
Calcio Padova Rank: 50 W
Empoli Rank: 54 D
Venezia Rank: 71 D
Mantova Rank: 55 L
Reggiana Rank: 48 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cesena Rank: 52 D
Frosinone Rank: 66 L
Pescara Rank: 48 D
Reggiana Rank: 48 L
Spezia Rank: 52 W
Bari 1908 Rank: 51 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Virtus Entella
96.48%
Draw
3.33%
Away Carrarese
0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
Virtus Entella
+1.76%
Draw
-1.76%
Carrarese
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
48.44
52.91
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Virtus Entella
Carrarese
Power Score
48.44
52.91
League Position
14
12
Global Rank
808
708

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Virtus Entella — Opponent-weighted form score
Carrarese — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Virtus Entella Carrarese

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Virtus Entella

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Carrarese

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Virtus Entella ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Carrarese
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
49.42
20.53
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.53
49.42
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Virtus Entella +2.75 Efficiency Index
vs
Carrarese -2.75 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Virtus Entella
Carrarese
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Virtus Entella ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Carrarese
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Virtus Entella Carrarese
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Virtus Entella Carrarese
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Virtus Entella
Carrarese
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Virtus Entella
vs
Carrarese
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Virtus Entella Carrarese
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Virtus Entella 0.42
Carrarese 0.29
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Virtus Entella Carrarese
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Virtus Entella 0.03
Carrarese 0.04
Virtus Entella
Carrarese
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CAR had peak pressure around 89'.
  • ENT started the game with stronger pressure.
ENT Pressure CAR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CAR reached the top pressure at 89' (85.49).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Virtus Entella ENT Home
1 matches
Carrarese CAR Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
1
-2
Goal Difference
+2

Data last updated: 2026-05-09T00:02:12+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
F. Del Frate
Italy
22 F. Del Frate
L. Parodi
Italy
23 L. Parodi
A. Tiritiello
Italy
6 A. Tiritiello
I. Marconi
Italy
15 I. Marconi
D. Bariti
Substitution
Italy
7 D. Bariti
N. Karic
Sweden
8 N. Karic
N. Squizzato
Substitution
Italy
5 N. Squizzato
A. Franzoni
Italy
24 A. Franzoni
S. Di Mario
Substitution
Italy
26 S. Di Mario
L. Cuppone
Substitution
Italy
10 L. Cuppone
M. Tirelli
Substitution
Italy
17 M. Tirelli
Pitch
M. Bleve
Italy
1 M. Bleve
F. Oliana
Italy
6 F. Oliana
J. Illanes Minucci
Substitution
Argentina
4 J. Illanes Minucci
F. Ruggeri
Italy
26 F. Ruggeri
N. Belloni
Substitution
Italy
7 N. Belloni
E. Zuelli
Italy
17 E. Zuelli
N. Schiavi
Argentina
18 N. Schiavi
F. Melegoni
Substitution
Italy
8 F. Melegoni
S. Zanon
Italy
72 S. Zanon
F. Di Stefano
Substitution
Italy
28 F. Di Stefano
F. Abiuso
Substitution
Italy
9 F. Abiuso

General Information

Date & Time :
May 08, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Comunale Chiavari
Capacity :
5500
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Michael Fabbri
Gianluca Grasso
Leonardo Leorsini
Marco Belsanti

Statistics

Possession
ENT
46%
CAR
54%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
5 Big Chances Created 1
9 Shots 7
45 Dangerous attacks 34
43 Possession 57
5 Corners 5
11 Free kicks 16
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

15 Throwins 24
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
9 Goal Kicks 10
15 Dribble Attempts 13
78 Ball Safe 88
13 Goal Attempts 5
6 Successful Dribbles 5
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

76 Attacks 110
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

339 Passes 462
77 Successful Passes Percentage 81
59 Long Passes 59
22 Successful Long Passes 30
260 Successful Passes 373
37 Successful Long Passes Percentage 51
14 Key Passes 6

Defensive

12 Tackles 11
41 Duels Won 43
1 Saves 4
10 Interceptions 7

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 5
17 Total Crosses 17

Discipline

1 Offsides 3
16 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Michael Fabbri

Starting XI ▼

22
Federico Del Frate
Federico Del Frate Goalkeeper
6
Andrea Tiritiello
Andrea Tiritiello Defender
15
Ivan Marconi
Ivan Marconi Defender
23
Luca Parodi
Luca Parodi Defender
5
Niccolò Squizzato
Niccolò Squizzato Midfielder
32
Leonardo Benedetti
Leonardo Benedetti
Midfielder58'
7
Davide Bariti
Davide Bariti Midfielder
94
Francesco Mezzoni
Francesco Mezzoni
Defender58'
8
Nermin Karić
Nermin Karić Midfielder
24
Andrea Franzoni
Andrea Franzoni Midfielder
26
Stefano Di Mario
Stefano Di Mario Midfielder
3
Mattia Alborghetti
Mattia Alborghetti
Defender87'
10
Luigi Cuppone
Luigi Cuppone Attacker
4
Marco Nichetti
Marco Nichetti
Midfielder87'
17
Mattia Tirelli
Mattia Tirelli Attacker
19
Alessandro Debenedetti
Alessandro Debenedetti
Attacker74'
Referee : Michael Fabbri

Starting XI ▼

1
Marco Bleve
Marco Bleve Goalkeeper
4
Julián Illanes
Julián Illanes Defender
13
Devid Eugene Bouah
Devid Eugene Bouah
Midfielder69'
6
Filippo Oliana
Filippo Oliana Defender
26
Fabio Andrea Ruggeri
Fabio Andrea Ruggeri Defender
7
Niccolò Belloni
Niccolò Belloni Midfielder
73
Jonas Rouhi
Jonas Rouhi
Defender46'
8
Filippo Melegoni
Filippo Melegoni Midfielder
70
Luis Hasa
Luis Hasa
Midfielder60'
17
Emanuele Zuelli
Emanuele Zuelli Midfielder
18
Nicolás Schiavi
Nicolás Schiavi Midfielder
72
Simone Zanon
Simone Zanon Midfielder
9
Fabio Abiuso
Fabio Abiuso Attacker
32
Mattia Finotto
Mattia Finotto
Attacker46'
28
Filippo Distefano
Filippo Distefano Attacker
92
Ernesto Torregrossa
Ernesto Torregrossa
Attacker83'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Marco Nichetti → Luigi Cuppone
10th Substitution
87'
Event
Mattia Alborghetti → Stefano Di Mario
9th Substitution
87'
83'
Event
Ernesto Torregrossa → Filippo Distefano
8th Substitution
Event
Alessandro Debenedetti → Mattia Tirelli
7th Substitution
74'
Event
Mattia Tirelli
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
74'
69'
Event
Devid Eugene Bouah → Julián Illanes
6th Substitution
60'
Event
Luis Hasa → Filippo Melegoni
5th Substitution
Event
Leonardo Benedetti → Niccolò Squizzato
3rd Substitution
58'
Event
Francesco Mezzoni → Davide Bariti
4th Substitution
58'
Event
Luigi Cuppone
Simulation / 4th Yellowcard
56'
56'
Event
Var
50'
Event
Simone Zanon
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Davide Bariti
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
49'
Event
Luigi Cuppone
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
46'
46'
Event
Mattia Finotto → Fabio Abiuso
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Jonas Rouhi → Niccolò Belloni
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Filippo Melegoni
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
37'
Event
Julián Illanes
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Mattia Tirelli
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
24'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Devid Eugene Bouah attempted a header but missed the shot.
89
Attempt Attempt
Nermin Karic's right-footed shot is blocked.
89
Attempt Attempt
Alessandro Debenedetti takes a right-footed shot but misses.
87
Substitution Substitution
Nichetti Marco is substituted off for Luigi Cuppone.
87
Update Update
Mattia Alborghetti comes on for Stefano Di Mario.
86
Attempt Attempt
Ernesto Torregrossa attempts a header but misses the shot.
84
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Schiavi's left-footed shot is blocked.
83
Update Update
Ernesto Torregrossa comes on for Filippo Distefano.
78
Attempt Attempt
Simone Zanon takes a right-footed shot but misses.
74
Update Update
Alessandro Debenedetti comes on for Mattia Tirelli.
72
Attempt Attempt
Luis Hasa's right-footed shot is saved.
69
Update Update
Devid Eugene Bouah comes on for Julian Illanes Minucci.
65
Attempt Attempt
Mattia Tirelli's right-footed shot is blocked.
65
Attempt Attempt
Nermin Karic's right-footed shot is blocked.
64
Attempt Attempt
Andrea Franzoni takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
60
Update Update
Luis Hasa replaces Filippo Melegoni.
58
Update Update
Leonardo Benedetti comes on for Niccolo Squizzato.
58
Update Update
Francesco Mezzoni replaces Davide Bariti.
52
Attempt Attempt
Luigi Cuppone takes a right-footed shot but misses.
51
Attempt Attempt
Luigi Cuppone takes a right-footed shot but misses.
50
Attempt Attempt
Filippo Melegoni takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
50
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Simone Zanon scores, making it 2-1.
50
Attempt Attempt
Simone Zanon scores with a right-footed shot.
46
Update Update
Jonas Rouhi comes on for Niccolo Belloni.
46
Update Update
Mattia Finotto comes on for Fabio Abiuso.
46
Attempt Attempt
Luigi Cuppone scores with a right-footed shot.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Filippo Melegoni receives a yellow card.
45
Attempt Attempt
Mattia Tirelli's right-footed shot is saved.
33
Attempt Attempt
Filippo Melegoni takes a right-footed shot but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Fabio Abiuso takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
24
Attempt Attempt
Mattia Tirelli scores with a right-footed shot.
24
Attempt Attempt
Filippo Melegoni's right-footed shot is blocked.
19
Attempt Attempt
Luigi Cuppone takes a header shot but misses.
18
Attempt Attempt
Luigi Cuppone attempts a header but misses the shot.
15
Attempt Attempt
Mattia Tirelli takes a left-footed shot but misses.
15
Attempt Attempt
Mattia Tirelli takes a right-footed shot but misses.
13
Attempt Attempt
Simone Zanon attempts a header but misses the shot.
12
Attempt Attempt
Luigi Cuppone attempts a header but misses the shot.
7
Attempt Attempt
Luigi Cuppone takes a right-footed shot but misses.
1
Attempt Attempt
Luigi Cuppone's right-footed shot is blocked.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Michael Fabbri.
1
Attempt Attempt
Luca Parodi's right-footed shot is blocked.
1
Attempt Attempt
Niccolo Squizzato takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Virtus Entella's 2-1 triumph over Carrarese underscores their ability to outperform possession stats and pre-match strength assessments. With a halftime lead of 1-0 and sustained defensive solidity, they capitalized on limited chances against a dominant yet wasteful opponent. The minimal deviation and aligned efficiencies point to a predictable yet gritty home performance. Carrarese's failure to convert superior control into points exposes vulnerabilities. This result bolsters Entella's standing while prompting reflection for Carrarese on finishing prowess.

Virtus Entella vs Carrarese preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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