Villarreal vs Sevilla Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio de la Cerámica Wed, 13 May - 5:00 PM
La Liga
Villarreal VIL
2 Winner 3
Sevilla SEV
Full Time Wed, 13 May 5:00 PM
Round 36 Regular Season
Georges Mikautadze - 20'
Gerard Moreno - 13'
Goal
|
Goal
Akor Adams - 72'
Kike Salas - 45+2'
Oso - 36'

CONTEXT

Villarreal hosted Sevilla in a high-stakes La Liga encounter, dominating possession at 63% to 37% but ultimately falling 2-3. The first half ended in a pulsating 2-2 draw, with both sides trading blows early. As the stronger team on paper, Villarreal pushed forward in the second half, yet Sevilla's clinical finishing on the counter turned the tide. No red cards marred the contest, allowing continuous end-to-end action. Sevilla's victory marked a significant structural deviation, defying expectations where Villarreal entered as favorites. Possession disparity highlighted Villarreal's control without conversion, while Sevilla maximized limited opportunities. The result flips pre-match narratives, showcasing Sevilla's resilience under pressure. Key moments post-halftime proved decisive in this tactical battle.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sevilla's 3-2 win exhibited a significant 72.7% structural deviation from expectations favoring Villarreal.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment assessment with final score.
  • Market alignment: Outcome misaligned with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable due to lack of underlying data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match trajectory.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Busquets Ferrer

Spain 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

I. Prieto López de Ceraín

1st Assistant

Spain

J. Roca Robles

4th Official

Spain

G. García González

2nd Assistant

Spain

League averages

La Liga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.29
Yellow cards / match 4.01
Red cards / match 0.23
Penalties / match 0.29
Villarreal M. García Toral
M. García Toral
VS
Sevilla L. García Plaza
L. García Plaza
1.87
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.04
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mallorca Rank: 77 D
Levante Rank: 74 W
Celta de Vigo Rank: 79 W
Real Oviedo Rank: 71 D
Athletic Club Rank: 78 W
Girona Rank: 75 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Espanyol Rank: 73 W
Real Sociedad Rank: 81 W
Osasuna Rank: 77 L
Levante Rank: 73 L
Atlético Madrid Rank: 89 W
Real Oviedo Rank: 71 L
13
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
13 - 13 - 17
17

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Villarreal
44.39%
Draw
28.3%
Away Sevilla
27.32%

Movement

Changes since opening
Villarreal
+44.2%
Draw
+24.57%
Sevilla
-68.75%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
83.98
74.01
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Villarreal
Sevilla
Power Score
83.98
74.01
League Position
3
13
Global Rank
41
134

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Villarreal — Opponent-weighted form score
Sevilla — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Villarreal Sevilla

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Villarreal

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sevilla

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Villarreal ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sevilla
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Villarreal Sevilla
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Villarreal Sevilla
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Villarreal
Sevilla
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Villarreal
vs
Sevilla
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Villarreal Sevilla
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Villarreal 0.00
Sevilla 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Villarreal Sevilla
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Villarreal 0.00
Sevilla 0.00
Villarreal
Sevilla
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SEV had peak pressure around 37'.
  • VIL started the game with stronger pressure.
VIL Pressure SEV Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SEV reached the top pressure at 37' (69.21).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 43 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Villarreal VIL Home
43 matches
Sevilla SEV Away
Match Record
13
Wins
17
13
Draws
13
17
Losses
13
Goals
58
Goals Scored
63
63
Goals Conceded
58
-5
Goal Difference
+5

Data last updated: 2026-05-13T16:30:30+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
A. Tenas Ureña
Spain
25 A. Tenas Ureña
A. Freeman
United States
3 A. Freeman
P. Navarro Badenes
Spain
6 P. Navarro Badenes
R. Palma Veiga
Portugal
12 R. Palma Veiga
A. Pedraza Sag
Spain
24 A. Pedraza Sag
N. Pépé
Substitution
Ivory Coast
19 N. Pépé
D. Parejo Muñoz
Substitution
Spain
10 D. Parejo Muñoz
P. Gueye
Substitution
Senegal
18 P. Gueye
A. Moleiro González
Spain
20 A. Moleiro González
G. Moreno Balaguero
Spain
7 G. Moreno Balaguero
G. Mikautadze
Substitution
Georgia
9 G. Mikautadze
Pitch
O. Vlachodimos
Greece
1 O. Vlachodimos
G. Suazo Urbina
Chile
12 G. Suazo Urbina
Kike Salas
Spain
4 Kike Salas
C. Azpilicueta Tanco
Spain
3 C. Azpilicueta Tanco
José Ángel Carmona
Spain
2 José Ángel Carmona
J. Martínez Gauna
Spain
36 J. Martínez Gauna
D. Sow
Substitution
Switzerland
20 D. Sow
L. Agoume
France
18 L. Agoume
R. Vargas
Substitution
Switzerland
11 R. Vargas
N. Maupay
Substitution
France
17 N. Maupay
A. Adams
Substitution
Nigeria
9 A. Adams

General Information

Date & Time :
May 13, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio de la Cerámica
Capacity :
23500
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Iñigo Prieto López de Ceraín
Juan Francisco Roca Robles
Gonzalo García González
Mateo Busquets Ferrer

Statistics

Possession
VIL
57%
SEV
43%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 3
1 Big Chances Created 1
2 Shots 6
53 Dangerous attacks 42
63 Possession 37
6 Corners 4
9 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

8 Successful Dribbles 12
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 55
20 Throwins 17
8 Goal Kicks 7
10 Successful Headers 8
18 Dribble Attempts 22
2 Assists 3
67 Ball Safe 52
5 Goal Attempts 5
1 Injuries 1
4 Substitutions 4

Attacking

92 Attacks 82

Possession

90 Successful Passes Percentage 85
69 Successful Long Passes Percentage 60
554 Passes 325
4 Key Passes 11
39 Long Passes 40
499 Successful Passes 276
27 Successful Long Passes 24

Defensive

12 Tackles 22
38 Duels Won 53
2 Saves 1
5 Interceptions 2

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 15
3 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

11 Fouls 9
0 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Mateo Busquets Ferrer

Starting XI ▼

25
Arnau Tenas
Arnau Tenas Goalkeeper
6.69
3
Alex Freeman
Alex Freeman Defender
6.68
6
Pau Navarro
Pau Navarro Defender
6.76
12
Renato Veiga
Renato Veiga Defender
6.7
24
Alfonso Pedraza
Alfonso Pedraza Defender
6.79
10
Dani Parejo
Dani Parejo Midfielder
6.79
14
Santi Comesaña
Santi Comesaña
Midfielder70'
6.88
18
Pape Gueye
Pape Gueye Midfielder
7.01
16
Thomas Partey
Thomas Partey
Midfielder60'
6.62
19
Nicolas Pépé
Nicolas Pépé Midfielder
7.07
17
Tajon Buchanan
Tajon Buchanan
Attacker60'
6.75
20
Alberto Moleiro
Alberto Moleiro Midfielder
6.93
7
Gerard Moreno
Gerard Moreno Attacker
7.11
9
Georges Mikautadze
Georges Mikautadze Attacker
6.97
22
Ayoze Pérez
Ayoze Pérez
Attacker70'
6.66
Referee : Mateo Busquets Ferrer

Starting XI ▼

1
Odysseas Vlachodimos
Odysseas Vlachodimos Goalkeeper
6.74
2
José Ángel Carmona
José Ángel Carmona Defender
6.66
3
César Azpilicueta
César Azpilicueta Defender
6.84
4
Kike Salas
Kike Salas Defender
6.92
12
Gabriel Suazo
Gabriel Suazo Defender
6.93
11
Rubén Vargas
Rubén Vargas Midfielder
6.87
16
Juanlu Sánchez
Juanlu Sánchez
Midfielder67'
6.65
18
Lucien Agoumé
Lucien Agoumé Midfielder
6.83
20
Djibril Sow
Djibril Sow Midfielder
6.79
6
Nemanja Gudelj
Nemanja Gudelj
Midfielder86'
6.77
36
Oso
Oso Midfielder
6.78
9
Akor Adams
Akor Adams Attacker
6.82
32
Andrés Castrín
Andrés Castrín
Defender86'
6.88
17
Neal Maupay
Neal Maupay Attacker
6.79
10
Alexis Sánchez
Alexis Sánchez
Attacker71'
6.75

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
José Ángel Carmona
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Renato Veiga
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
90+2'
86'
Event
Nemanja Gudelj → Djibril Sow
8th Substitution
86'
Event
Andrés Castrín → Akor Adams
7th Substitution
Event
Ayoze Pérez
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
81'
72'
Event
Akor Adams
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
71'
Event
Alexis Sánchez → Neal Maupay
6th Substitution
Event
Santi Comesaña → Dani Parejo
4th Substitution
70'
Event
Ayoze Pérez → Georges Mikautadze
5th Substitution
70'
67'
Event
Juanlu Sánchez → Rubén Vargas
3rd Substitution
Event
Tajon Buchanan → Nicolas Pépé
1st Substitution
60'
Event
Thomas Partey → Pape Gueye
2nd Substitution
60'
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Event
Kike Salas
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
36'
Event
Oso
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Georges Mikautadze
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
20'
Event
Gerard Moreno
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
13'

Match Commentary

81
Update Update
Ayoze Pérez from Villarreal commits a foul.
81
Update Update
Djibril Sow from Sevilla won a free kick in defense.
81
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Djibril Sow of Sevilla.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ayoze Pérez of Villarreal receives a yellow card for a foul.
78
Update Update
Alexis Sánchez of Sevilla won a free kick in defense.
78
Update Update
Foul committed by Pau Navarro of Villarreal.
75
Corner Corner
Villarreal wins a corner after Juanlu Sánchez concedes.
72
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Sevilla leads 3-2 after Akor Adams scores with a left-footed shot from the left side of the box into the top left corner, assisted by Djibril Sow.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sevilla: Alexis Sánchez replaces Neal Maupay.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Villarreal: Santi Comesaña replaces Dani Parejo.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Villarreal: Ayoze Pérez replaces Georges Mikautadze.
70
Update Update
Djibril Sow from Sevilla misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, sending the ball high and wide to the right. Akor Adams provided the assist.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sevilla: Juanlu Sánchez replaces Rubén Vargas.
67
Update Update
Renato Veiga from Villarreal committed a foul.
67
Update Update
Neal Maupay of Sevilla won a free kick in defense.
66
Corner Corner
Alberto Moleiro from Villarreal attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but Odysseas Vlachodimos from Sevilla saves it in the right corner.
65
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to José Ángel Carmona from Sevilla.
64
Attempt Attempt
Rubén Vargas from Sevilla has his right-footed shot from outside the box blocked. The assist was provided by Djibril Sow.
63
Attempt Attempt
Neal Maupay of Sevilla attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from outside the box, but Arnau Tenas of Villarreal saves it in the top center of the goal. The assist came from José Ángel Carmona.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Villarreal: Thomas Partey replaces Pape Gueye.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Villarreal: Tajon Buchanan replaces Nicolas Pépé.
60
Update Update
Akor Adams of Sevilla is flagged for offside.
56
Update Update
Akor Adams of Sevilla is caught offside.
55
Update Update
Renato Veiga of Villarreal won a free kick in defense.
55
Update Update
Akor Adams fouled a player from Sevilla.
54
Corner Corner
Sevilla wins a corner after Alexander Freeman concedes.
53
Update Update
Akor Adams fouled a Sevilla player.
53
Update Update
Pape Gueye from Villarreal won a free kick in defense.
51
Update Update
Djibril Sow from Sevilla won a free kick in defense.
51
Update Update
Foul committed by Pau Navarro of Villarreal.
50
Update Update
Nicolas Pépé of Villarreal won a free kick on the right wing.
50
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Nicolas Pépé from Villarreal.
50
Update Update
Foul committed by Gabriel Suazo - Sevilla.
50
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Gabriel Suazo of Sevilla.
48
Attempt Attempt
Oso's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Rubén Vargas provided the assist.
48
Update Update
Dani Parejo from Villarreal commits a foul.
48
Corner Corner
Sevilla wins a corner after Pau Navarro concedes.
48
Update Update
Neal Maupay of Sevilla won a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Villarreal and Sevilla tied at 2-2.
45
Update Update
Neal Maupay commits a foul against Sevilla.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 3 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
Arnau Tenas from Villarreal won a free kick in defense.
45
Attempt Attempt
Akor Adams' shot from the left side of the box is blocked. Neal Maupay provided the assist.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Kike Salas scores for Sevilla with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the top center of the goal. The match is now 2-2, assisted by Rubén Vargas.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Villarreal 2, Sevilla 2.
44
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Pape Gueye from Villarreal took a left-footed shot from outside the box.
43
Attempt Attempt
Kike Salas from Sevilla missed a chance, heading the ball from the center of the box over the goal. The assist came from Oso with a cross.
42
Update Update
José Ángel Carmona from Sevilla won a free kick on the right wing.
42
Update Update
Fouled by Alfonso Pedraza of Villarreal.
40
Attempt Attempt
Neal Maupay's shot for Sevilla from the left side of the box is blocked. Djibril Sow provided the assist.
40
Corner Corner
Sevilla wins a corner after Pau Navarro concedes.
37
Update Update
Alexander Freeman of Villarreal won a free kick on the right wing.
37
Update Update
Akor Adams fouled a Sevilla player.
36
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Sevilla scores to make it 2-1 against Villarreal. Oso shoots with his right foot from the center of the box into the center of the goal, assisted by Lucien Agoumé.
31
Corner Corner
Sevilla is awarded a corner after Alexander Freeman concedes.
31
Update Update
Pape Gueye from Villarreal won a free kick in defense.
31
Update Update
Foul committed by Neal Maupay against Sevilla.
29
Update Update
Neal Maupay committed a foul against Sevilla.
29
Update Update
Dani Parejo of Villarreal won a free kick in defense.
29
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to José Ángel Carmona from Sevilla.
28
Update Update
Pape Gueye from Villarreal won a free kick in defense.
28
Update Update
Foul committed by Neal Maupay against Sevilla.
27
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Oso from Sevilla heads the ball from the center of the box, but it's saved by Villarreal's goalkeeper Arnau Tenas. The assist came from Kike Salas, who also headed the ball.
25
Update Update
Nicolas Pépé fouled a Villarreal player.
25
Update Update
Djibril Sow from Sevilla won a free kick in defense.
23
Corner Corner
Villarreal wins a corner after José Ángel Carmona concedes.
20
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Villarreal leads 2-0 against Sevilla. Georges Mikautadze scores for Villarreal with a right-footed shot from a few meters into the left corner, assisted by Alberto Moleiro.
15
Update Update
Neal Maupay of Sevilla is caught offside.
13
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Villarreal lead 1-0 against Sevilla. Gerard Moreno scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the right corner, assisted by Georges Mikautadze.
9
Attempt Attempt
Djibril Sow's shot from outside the box is blocked.
9
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Rubén Vargas from Sevilla.
6
Update Update
Neal Maupay of Sevilla won a free kick in defense.
6
Update Update
Foul committed by Pau Navarro of Villarreal.
5
Update Update
Handball by Rubén Vargas for Sevilla.
5
Update Update
Rubén Vargas of Sevilla won a free kick in defense.
5
Update Update
Foul committed by Alfonso Pedraza of Villarreal.
3
Corner Corner
Villarreal is awarded a corner after César Azpilicueta concedes it.

CONCLUSION

Sevilla's gritty 3-2 triumph over possession-heavy Villarreal underscores the fine margins in elite football. Despite Villarreal's 63% control and status as the stronger side, Sevilla's second-half efficiency clinched an upset. The 2-2 halftime deadlock gave way to decisive counters, amplifying Sevilla's deviation from norms. This result boosts Sevilla's momentum while prompting Villarreal to refine finishing. No disruptions like reds kept focus on skill, revealing Sevilla's tactical edge. A testament to resilience, it reshapes mid-season standings dynamics.

Villarreal vs Sevilla preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

La Liga, Spain View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ