Villarreal vs Levante Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio de la Cerámica Sat, 2 May - 12:00 PM
La Liga
Villarreal VIL
5 Winner 1
Levante LVT
Full Time Sat, 2 May 12:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Nicolas Pépé - 90'
Georges Mikautadze - 68', 38'
Alberto Moleiro - 62'
Goal
|
Goal
Carlos Espí - 51'

CONTEXT

Villarreal produced a dominant display to thrash Levante 5-1 in their home encounter. The hosts established a 1-0 lead by halftime, courtesy of controlled possession at 53% compared to Levante's 47%. The second half erupted into a rout as Villarreal netted four unanswered goals, showcasing clinical finishing and defensive solidity. No red cards disrupted the flow, allowing both teams to field full squads throughout. Identified as the stronger side pre-match, Villarreal exceeded expectations with a significant performance margin, reflecting a structural deviation of 45.8%. This victory underscores Villarreal's superiority, capitalizing on Levante's defensive lapses without any major interruptions or tactical overhauls.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Villarreal's 5-1 win featured a significant 45.8% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented alignment evaluation.
  • Market alignment: Result aligned fully with pre-match market projections.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable due to lack of data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Hernández Hernández

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Naranjo Pérez

1st Assistant

M. Cerdán Aguilar

2nd Assistant

J. Gordillo Escamilla

4th Official

Villarreal M. García Toral
M. García Toral
VS
Levante L. Ferreira de Castro
L. Ferreira de Castro
1.91
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.04
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Celta de Vigo Rank: 79 W
Real Oviedo Rank: 71 D
Athletic Club Rank: 77 W
Girona Rank: 75 L
Real Sociedad Rank: 81 W
Deportivo Alavés Rank: 76 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Espanyol Rank: 72 D
Sevilla Rank: 73 W
Getafe Rank: 76 W
Real Sociedad Rank: 81 L
Real Oviedo Rank: 71 W
Rayo Vallecano Rank: 77 D
16
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
16 - 2 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Villarreal
54.23%
Draw
22.88%
Away Levante
22.89%

Movement

Changes since opening
Villarreal
-43.07%
Draw
+20.51%
Levante
+22.57%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
83.93
61.8
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Villarreal
Levante
Power Score
83.93
61.8
League Position
3
19
Global Rank
40
134

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Villarreal — Opponent-weighted form score
Levante — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Villarreal Levante

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Villarreal

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Levante

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Villarreal ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Levante
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
42.74
28.30
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.30
42.74
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Villarreal +1.31 Efficiency Index
vs
Levante -1.31 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Villarreal
Levante
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Villarreal ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Levante
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Villarreal Levante
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Villarreal Levante
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Villarreal
Levante
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Villarreal
vs
Levante
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Villarreal Levante
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Villarreal 0.38
Levante 0.46
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Villarreal Levante
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Villarreal 0.04
Levante 0.09
Villarreal
Levante
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • VIL had peak pressure around 16'.
  • VIL started the game with stronger pressure.
VIL Pressure LVT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: VIL reached the top pressure at 16' (81.52).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 26 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Villarreal VIL Home
26 matches
Levante LVT Away
Match Record
16
Wins
8
2
Draws
2
8
Losses
16
Goals
41
Goals Scored
20
20
Goals Conceded
41
+21
Goal Difference
-21

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:03:01+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
A. Tenas Ureña
Spain
25 A. Tenas Ureña
A. Freeman
United States
3 A. Freeman
P. Navarro Badenes
Substitution
Spain
6 P. Navarro Badenes
R. Palma Veiga
Portugal
12 R. Palma Veiga
A. Pedraza Sag
Substitution
Spain
24 A. Pedraza Sag
N. Pépé
Ivory Coast
19 N. Pépé
S. Comesaña Veiga
Spain
14 S. Comesaña Veiga
D. Parejo Muñoz
Substitution
Spain
10 D. Parejo Muñoz
A. Moleiro González
Spain
20 A. Moleiro González
G. Moreno Balaguero
Substitution
Spain
7 G. Moreno Balaguero
G. Mikautadze
Substitution
Georgia
9 G. Mikautadze
Pitch
M. Ryan
Australia
13 M. Ryan
D. Varela Pampín
Spain
6 D. Varela Pampín
A. Matturro Romero
Uruguay
3 A. Matturro Romero
M. Moreno
Argentina
2 M. Moreno
J. Toljan
Germany
22 J. Toljan
K. Arriaga
Substitution
Honduras
16 K. Arriaga
I. Romero de Ávila Araque
Substitution
Spain
9 I. Romero de Ávila Araque
J. Olasagasti Imizcoz
Spain
8 J. Olasagasti Imizcoz
P. Martínez Andrés
Substitution
Spain
10 P. Martínez Andrés
C. Álvarez Rivera
Substitution
Spain
24 C. Álvarez Rivera
C. Espí Escrihuela
Spain
19 C. Espí Escrihuela

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 12:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio de la Cerámica
Capacity :
23500
Attendance :
17169
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
José Enrique Naranjo Pérez
Alejandro José Hernández Hernández
Marcos Cerdán Aguilar
J. Gordillo Escamilla

Statistics

Possession
VIL
54%
LVT
46%

Top Statistics

5 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 1
8 Shots 3
53 Dangerous attacks 26
53 Possession 47
7 Corners 3
7 Free kicks 14
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

4 Assists 1
66 Ball Safe 79
4 Successful Headers 5
5 Substitutions 5
15 Goal Attempts 8
20 Throwins 11
15 Dribble Attempts 14
7 Successful Dribbles 7
7 Goal Kicks 10
1 Hit Woodwork 1
47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

Attacking

112 Attacks 76
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

88 Successful Passes Percentage 87
537 Passes 473
39 Long Passes 43
22 Successful Long Passes 25
56 Successful Long Passes Percentage 58
475 Successful Passes 411
17 Key Passes 8

Defensive

2 Saves 3
7 Interceptions 6
17 Tackles 12
35 Duels Won 38

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 18
6 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

3 Offsides 0
14 Fouls 7

Lineup

Referee : Alejandro José Hernández Hernández

Starting XI ▼

25
Arnau Tenas
Arnau Tenas Goalkeeper
6.55
3
Alex Freeman
Alex Freeman Defender
6.66
6
Pau Navarro
Pau Navarro Defender
6.77
5
Willy Kambwala
Willy Kambwala
Defender81'
6.56
12
Renato Veiga
Renato Veiga Defender
6.66
24
Alfonso Pedraza
Alfonso Pedraza Defender
6.79
23
Sergi Cardona
Sergi Cardona
Defender73'
6.79
10
Dani Parejo
Dani Parejo Midfielder
6.78
16
Thomas Partey
Thomas Partey
Midfielder74'
6.62
14
Santi Comesaña
Santi Comesaña Midfielder
6.88
19
Nicolas Pépé
Nicolas Pépé Midfielder
7.03
20
Alberto Moleiro
Alberto Moleiro Midfielder
6.93
7
Gerard Moreno
Gerard Moreno Attacker
7.15
17
Tajon Buchanan
Tajon Buchanan
Attacker84'
6.74
9
Georges Mikautadze
Georges Mikautadze Attacker
2
6.91
22
Ayoze Pérez
Ayoze Pérez
Attacker74'
6.64
Referee : Alejandro José Hernández Hernández

Starting XI ▼

13
Mathew Ryan
Mathew Ryan Goalkeeper
7.16
2
Matías Moreno
Matías Moreno Defender
6.89
3
Alan Matturro
Alan Matturro Defender
6.41
6
Diego Pampín
Diego Pampín Defender
6.46
22
Jeremy Toljan
Jeremy Toljan Defender
6.67
8
Jon Ander Olasagasti
Jon Ander Olasagasti Midfielder
6.71
9
Iván Romero
Iván Romero Midfielder
6.92
26
Kareem Tunde
Kareem Tunde
Attacker46'
6.62
10
Pablo Martínez
Pablo Martínez Midfielder
6.78
7
Roger Brugué
Roger Brugué
Midfielder77'
6.51
16
Kervin Arriaga
Kervin Arriaga Midfielder
6.73
14
Ugo Raghouber
Ugo Raghouber
Midfielder68'
6.81
24
Carlos Álvarez
Carlos Álvarez Midfielder
6.8
18
Iker Losada
Iker Losada
Attacker30'
6.67
19
Carlos Espí
Carlos Espí Attacker
6.86

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Nicolas Pépé
Left foot shot / 6th Goal
90'
Event
Thomas Partey
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
88'
Event
Tajon Buchanan
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
87'
Event
Tajon Buchanan → Gerard Moreno
10th Substitution
84'
Event
Willy Kambwala → Pau Navarro
9th Substitution
81'
77'
Event
Roger Brugué → Pablo Martínez
8th Substitution
Event
Thomas Partey → Dani Parejo
6th Substitution
74'
Event
Ayoze Pérez → Georges Mikautadze
7th Substitution
74'
Event
Sergi Cardona → Alfonso Pedraza
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Georges Mikautadze
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
68'
68'
Event
Ugo Raghouber → Kervin Arriaga
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Karl Etta Eyong → Kareem Tunde
3rd Substitution
Event
Alberto Moleiro
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
62'
Event
Renato Veiga
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
55'
51'
Event
Carlos Espí
Header / 2nd Goal
46'
Event
Kareem Tunde → Iván Romero
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Dani Parejo
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
45+4'
45'
Event
Kervin Arriaga
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Georges Mikautadze
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
38'
30'
Event
Iker Losada → Carlos Álvarez
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Pepe scores with a left-footed shot.
90
Update Update
Goal! Nicolas Pepe scores, making it 5-1.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jon Ander Olasagasti takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jon Ander Olasagasti's left-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Roger Brugue takes a left-footed shot but misses.
89
Attempt Attempt
Jon Ander Olasagasti takes a left-footed shot but misses.
88
Attempt Attempt
Ayoze Perez takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Thomas Partey receives a yellow card.
87
Attempt Attempt
Tajon Buchanan scores with a right-footed shot.
85
Attempt Attempt
Roger Brugue takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
84
Update Update
Tajon Buchanan replaces Gerard Moreno Balaguero.
82
Attempt Attempt
Ayoze Perez takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
81
Update Update
Willy Kambwala is on, and Pau Navarro Badenes is off.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Roger Brugue comes on for Pablo Martinez Andres.
77
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Pepe has a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
76
Attempt Attempt
Gerard Moreno Balaguero takes a left-footed shot but misses.
74
Update Update
Sergi Cardona Bermudez comes on for Alfonso Pedraza Sag.
74
Update Update
Sergi Cardona Bermudez comes on for Alfonso Pedraza Sag.
73
Update Update
Thomas Partey replaces Daniel Parejo Munoz.
68
Update Update
Etta Eyong comes on for Kareem Tunde.
68
Update Update
Ugo Raghouber comes on for Kervin Arriaga.
68
Attempt Attempt
Georges Mikautadze takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
68
Attempt Attempt
Georges Mikautadze scores with a left-footed shot.
66
Attempt Attempt
Kareem Tunde's right-footed shot is blocked.
65
Attempt Attempt
Kareem Tunde's left-footed shot is blocked.
62
Update Update
Goal! Alberto Moleiro scores, making it 2-1.
62
Attempt Attempt
Alberto Moleiro takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
58
Attempt Attempt
Georges Mikautadze takes a right-footed shot but misses.
58
Attempt Attempt
Georges Mikautadze takes a right-footed shot but misses.
56
Attempt Attempt
Georges Mikautadze takes a right-footed shot but misses.
55
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Renato De Palma Veiga receives a yellow card.
51
Update Update
Goal! Carlos Espi scores, making it 1-1.
51
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Espi takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
46
Update Update
Kareem Tunde is on, and Iván Romero is off.
45
Attempt Attempt
Alfonso Pedraza takes a left-footed shot but misses.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kervin Arriaga receives a yellow card.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Daniel Parejo Munoz.
43
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Espi takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
41
Attempt Attempt
Georges Mikautadze takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
38
Update Update
Goal! Georges Mikautadze scores to make it 1-0.
38
Attempt Attempt
Georges Mikautadze takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
32
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Martinez Andres takes a left-footed shot but misses.
22
Update Update
Iván Romero's header is blocked.
20
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Alvarez takes a left-footed shot but misses.
14
Attempt Attempt
Georges Mikautadze takes a right-footed shot but misses.
11
Attempt Attempt
Santi Comesana takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
11
Attempt Attempt
Santi Comesana takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
11
Attempt Attempt
Georges Mikautadze takes a right-footed shot but misses.
6
Attempt Attempt
Gerard Moreno Balaguero takes a left-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Villarreal's emphatic 5-1 triumph over Levante highlighted their superiority as the stronger team, with a first-half lead extended ruthlessly after the break. Possession edge and efficiency aligned with expectations, while the significant structural deviation amplified their dominance. Absent red cards or disruptive events, the outcome reflected pre-match alignments precisely. This performance solidifies Villarreal's credentials, exposing Levante's vulnerabilities in a one-sided affair that ended 5-1.

Villarreal vs Levante preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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