Viking vs Brann Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
SR-Bank Arena Sat, 18 Apr - 4:00 PM
Eliteserien
Viking Viking
3 Winner 2
Brann SKB
Full Time Sat, 18 Apr 4:00 PM
Round 5 Regular Season
Sondre Bjørshol - 90'
Henrik Heggheim - 42'
Kristoffer Haugen - 10'
Goal
|
Goal
Joachim Soltvedt - 58'
Noah Holm - 37'

CONTEXT

Viking clinched a 3-2 home win against Brann in a pulsating encounter marked by end-to-end action. The hosts surged ahead with a 2-1 halftime lead, maintaining 56% possession across the full 90 minutes to dictate play. Brann mounted a comeback effort, narrowing the gap, but Viking's clinical finishing sealed the victory. No red cards were issued, ensuring uninterrupted flow, while the absence of second-half tactical adjustments highlighted both teams' commitment to their initial strategies. Identified pre-match as the stronger side, Viking delivered a result with a significant 46.5% structural deviation in their favor. Market probabilities had favored a home win at 53.5%, and the outcome proved aligned. Efficiency dynamics stayed in line with norms, though null xG figures preclude precise chance conversion analysis. This performance reinforces Viking's structural edge over Brann.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Viking's win showed a significant 46.5% structural deviation.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevents outcome consistency assessment.
  • Market alignment: Result aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards caused zero distortion in match structure.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

O. Nilsen

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Jensen

1st Assistant

I. Tariq

2nd Assistant

A. Al-Hatem

4th Official

Viking M. Jensen
M. Jensen
VS
Brann F. Alexandersson
F. Alexandersson
2.7
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.18
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bodø / Glimt Rank: W
Vålerenga Rank: W
Molde Rank: W
HamKam Rank: L
Vålerenga Rank: W
Fredrikstad Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sandefjord Rank: L
HamKam Rank: W
Tromsø Rank: L
Kristiansund Rank: L
HamKam Rank: W
Molde Rank: L
15
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
15 - 10 - 11
11

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Viking
53.45%
Draw
22.8%
Away Brann
23.76%

Movement

Changes since opening
Viking
-38.79%
Draw
+15.42%
Brann
+23.38%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
48.87
16.8
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Viking
Brann
Power Score
48.87
16.8
League Position
2
12
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Viking — Opponent-weighted form score
Brann — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Viking Brann

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Viking

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Brann

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Viking ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Brann
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.46
22.05
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.05
34.46
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Viking +1.27 Efficiency Index
vs
Brann -1.27 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Viking
Brann
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Viking ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Brann
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Viking Brann
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Viking Brann
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Viking
Brann
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Viking
vs
Brann
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Viking Brann
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Viking 0.37
Brann 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Viking Brann
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Viking 0.06
Brann 0.07
Viking
Brann
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SKB had peak pressure around 63'.
  • SKB started the game with stronger pressure.
Viking Pressure SKB Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SKB reached the top pressure at 63' (70.88).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 36 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Viking Viking Home
36 matches
Brann SKB Away
Match Record
15
Wins
11
10
Draws
10
11
Losses
15
Goals
61
Goals Scored
46
46
Goals Conceded
61
+15
Goal Difference
-15

Data last updated: 2026-04-19T00:05:48+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
Ľ. Belko
Slovakia
30 Ľ. Belko
H. Heggheim
Substitution
Norway
5 H. Heggheim
G. Stensness
Australia
6 G. Stensness
H. Falchener
Norway
25 H. Falchener
K. Haugen
Norway
28 K. Haugen
H. Haugen
Substitution
Norway
2 H. Haugen
K. Askildsen
Substitution
Norway
7 K. Askildsen
J. Bell
New Zealand
8 J. Bell
Z. Tripić
Substitution
Norway
10 Z. Tripić
P. Christiansen
Denmark
20 P. Christiansen
S. Kvia-Egeskog
Norway
26 S. Kvia-Egeskog
Pitch
M. Dyngeland
Norway
1 M. Dyngeland
J. Soltvedt
Norway
17 J. Soltvedt
T. Pedersen
Substitution
Norway
23 T. Pedersen
F. Pallesen Knudsen
Norway
3 F. Pallesen Knudsen
D. De Roeve
Belgium
21 D. De Roeve
F. Horn Myhre
Norway
8 F. Horn Myhre
J. Sørensen
Denmark
18 J. Sørensen
K. Eriksen
Substitution
Norway
16 K. Eriksen
J. Thorsteinsson
Substitution
Iceland
7 J. Thorsteinsson
N. Holm
Norway
29 N. Holm
B. Finne
Substitution
Norway
11 B. Finne

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 18, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition :
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 5 · Regular Season
Stadium :
SR-Bank Arena
Capacity :
15900
Attendance :
15900
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Morten Jensen
Imran Tariq
Ali Al-Hatem
Ola Hobber Nilsen

Statistics

Possession
Viking
55%
SKB
45%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 2
46 Dangerous attacks 34
56 Possession 44
6 Corners 7
16 Free kicks 11
1 Yellow Cards 5

Match Overview

4 Substitutions 4
0 Penalties 1
28 Throwins 20
3 Successful Dribbles 2
3 Assists 2
4 Goal Kicks 13
27 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25
11 Dribble Attempts 8
105 Ball Safe 100
1 Injuries 2
13 Goal Attempts 6

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 1
83 Attacks 83
3 Counter Attacks 2

Possession

74 Successful Passes Percentage 67
37 Successful Long Passes 26
470 Passes 381
86 Long Passes 77
350 Successful Passes 257
14 Key Passes 6
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 34

Defensive

56 Duels Won 55
9 Interceptions 9
15 Tackles 18
2 Saves 3

Build-up

24 Total Crosses 11
7 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

12 Fouls 16
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Ola Hobber Nilsen

Starting XI ▼

30
Lubomir Belko
Lubomir Belko Goalkeeper
6.68
5
Henrik Heggheim
Henrik Heggheim Defender
7.42
18
Sondre Bjørshol
Sondre Bjørshol
Defender86'
6.68
6
Gianni Stensness
Gianni Stensness Defender
7.18
25
Henrik Falchener
Henrik Falchener Defender
7
28
Kristoffer Haugen
Kristoffer Haugen Defender
7.15
2
Herman Haugen
Herman Haugen Midfielder
6.56
23
Niklas Fuglestad
Niklas Fuglestad
Attacker65'
6.92
7
Kristoffer Askildsen
Kristoffer Askildsen Midfielder
6.96
33
Jakob Segadal Hansen
Jakob Segadal Hansen
Midfielder86'
6.56
8
Joe Bell
Joe Bell Midfielder
6.97
10
Zlatko Tripic
Zlatko Tripic Midfielder
7.99
21
Anders Bærtelsen
Anders Bærtelsen
Defender90+8'
6.88
20
Peter Christiansen
Peter Christiansen Attacker
7.42
26
Simen Kvia-Egeskog
Simen Kvia-Egeskog Attacker
7.29
Referee : Ola Hobber Nilsen

Starting XI ▼

1
Mathias Dyngeland
Mathias Dyngeland Goalkeeper
6.45
3
Fredrik Pallesen Knudsen
Fredrik Pallesen Knudsen Defender
7.04
17
Joachim Soltvedt
Joachim Soltvedt Defender
6.87
21
Denzel De Roeve
Denzel De Roeve Defender
7.04
23
Thore Pedersen
Thore Pedersen Defender
6.76
26
Rabbi Matondo
Rabbi Matondo
Midfielder90+6'
8
Felix Horn Myhre
Felix Horn Myhre Midfielder
7.06
16
Kristian Eriksen
Kristian Eriksen Midfielder
6.66
10
K. Ingason
K. Ingason
Attacker71'
6.57
18
Jacob Lungi Sørensen
Jacob Lungi Sørensen Midfielder
7.19
7
Jón Dagur Thorsteinsson
Jón Dagur Thorsteinsson Attacker
7.23
32
Markus Haaland
Markus Haaland
Midfielder55'
6.64
11
Bård Finne
Bård Finne Attacker
7.4
14
Ulrik Mathisen
Ulrik Mathisen
Midfielder56'
6.61
29
Noah Holm
Noah Holm Attacker
7.52

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Anders Bærtelsen → Zlatko Tripic
8th Substitution
90+8'
90+6'
Event
Rabbi Matondo → Thore Pedersen
7th Substitution
Event
Sondre Bjørshol
Header / 5th Goal
90'
89'
Event
Mathias Dyngeland
Time wasting / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Sondre Bjørshol → Henrik Heggheim
5th Substitution
86'
Event
Jakob Segadal Hansen → Kristoffer Askildsen
6th Substitution
86'
85'
Event
Felix Horn Myhre
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
71'
Event
K. Ingason → Kristian Eriksen
4th Substitution
Event
Niklas Fuglestad → Herman Haugen
3rd Substitution
65'
62'
Event
Kristian Eriksen
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
62'
Event
Denzel De Roeve
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
58'
Event
Joachim Soltvedt
GoalkeeperSave
58'
Event
Joachim Soltvedt
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
56'
Event
Ulrik Mathisen → Bård Finne
2nd Substitution
56'
Event
Bård Finne
Penalty awarded
55'
Event
Markus Haaland → Jón Dagur Thorsteinsson
1st Substitution
Event
Henrik Heggheim
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
53'
49'
Event
Jón Dagur Thorsteinsson
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Henrik Heggheim
Header / 3rd Goal
42'
37'
Event
Noah Holm
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Kristoffer Haugen
Header / 1st Goal
10'

CONCLUSION

Viking's 3-2 triumph over Brann validated their status as the stronger team, leveraging superior possession and early momentum for a hard-fought win. The significant structural deviation of 46.5% underscores the home side's overperformance relative to balanced projections, while market alignment confirms pre-match favoritism. With efficiency in line and no disruptive events like red cards, the match unfolded predictably in Viking's favor despite Brann's fightback. Absent xG metrics limit granular insights into chance quality, yet the result highlights Viking's resilience and finishing prowess in a competitive Norwegian top-flight clash.

Viking vs Brann preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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