VfL Wolfsburg vs Hamburger SV Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Volkswagen Arena Sat, 7 Mar - 2:30 PM
Bundesliga
VfL Wolfsburg WOB
1 Winner 2
Hamburger SV HSV
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 2:30 PM
Christian Eriksen - 22' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Jean-Luc Dompé - 58' (P)
Luka Vuskovic - 33' (P)
Marius Müller 90+9' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

The match between VfL Wolfsburg and Hamburger SV has finished, with the visitors securing a 2-1 full-time victory. Following an evenly contested first half that ended 1-1, Hamburger SV ultimately found the breakthrough to claim the win. VfL Wolfsburg controlled a slight majority of the ball with 52% possession compared to the visitors' 48%, though expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture to determine if the final score was consistent with overall chance creation. Pre-match market probabilities indicated an exceptionally tight contest, with Wolfsburg given a narrow 36.5% chance of victory compared to Hamburger SV's 35.2%, alongside a 28.3% chance of a draw. Because the slight underdogs triumphed, the outcome did not align with the pre-match market. This resulted in a significant deviation level of 64.8% favoring Hamburger SV. Despite this market deviation, the match's overall efficiency shift remained in line with expectations. The second half was largely defined by a major disciplinary incident. VfL Wolfsburg was reduced to ten men after receiving a red card. This red card distortion heavily influenced the match's closing dynamics, allowing Hamburger SV to capitalize on their numerical advantage and secure all three points.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Hamburger SV showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

F. Exner

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

N. Kimmeyer

1st Assistant

M. Stegemann

2nd Assistant

S. Stegemann

4th Official

VfL Wolfsburg D. Bauer
D. Bauer
VS
Hamburger SV M. Polzin
M. Polzin
0.73
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.14
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
VfB Stuttgart Rank: L
FC Augsburg Rank: L
RB Leipzig Rank: D
Borussia Dortmund Rank: L
FC Köln Rank: L
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: L
RB Leipzig Rank: L
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: D
FC Union Berlin Rank: W
Heidenheim Rank: W
FC Bayern München Rank: D
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 9 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home VfL Wolfsburg
36.53%
Draw
28.29%
Away Hamburger SV
35.18%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
26.67
37.04
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
VfL Wolfsburg
Hamburger SV
Power Score
26.67
37.04
League Position
17
10
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
VfL Wolfsburg — Opponent-weighted form score
Hamburger SV — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) VfL Wolfsburg Hamburger SV

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

VfL Wolfsburg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Hamburger SV

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

VfL Wolfsburg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hamburger SV
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.21
24.48
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.48
32.21
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
VfL Wolfsburg +0.69 Efficiency Index
vs
Hamburger SV -0.69 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
VfL Wolfsburg
Hamburger SV
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

VfL Wolfsburg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hamburger SV
Created Set-piece attacking threat
VfL Wolfsburg Hamburger SV
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 2.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
VfL Wolfsburg Hamburger SV
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
2.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
VfL Wolfsburg
Hamburger SV
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

VfL Wolfsburg WOB Home
1 matches
Hamburger SV HSV Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
1
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
1
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:06:09+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 07, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Stadium :
Volkswagen Arena
Capacity :
30000
Attendance :
28917
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Florian Exner
Nikolai Kimmeyer
Mitja Stegemann
Sascha Stegemann

Statistics

Possession
WOB
51%
HSV
49%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 6
55 Dangerous attacks 35
52 Possession 48
7 Corners 3
5 Free kicks 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

25 Successful Headers 31
28 Throwins 22
6 Successful Dribbles 5
14 Dribble Attempts 10
8 Goal Kicks 11
1 Penalties 2
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
41 Ball Safe 45
5 Goal Attempts 7
5 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

113 Attacks 104
3 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

7 Key Passes 5
393 Passes 372
66 Long Passes 69
71 Successful Passes Percentage 72
20 Successful Long Passes 23
30 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
280 Successful Passes 266

Defensive

11 Tackles 15
8 Interceptions 11
5 Saves 3
49 Duels Won 65

Build-up

24 Total Crosses 15
7 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

3 Offsides 3
18 Fouls 6

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Marius Müller
Argument / 1st Redcard
90+9'
90+9'
Event
Fabio Baldé
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Fábio Vieira
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
86'
Event
Giorgi Gocholeishvili → William Mikelbrencis
10th Substitution
Event
Maximilian Arnold → Moritz Jenz
8th Substitution
77'
77'
Event
Damion Downs → Ransford Königsdörffer
9th Substitution
Event
Kento Shiogai → Dzenan Pejcinovic
7th Substitution
69'
67'
Event
Yussuf Poulsen → Jean-Luc Dompé
5th Substitution
67'
Event
Fábio Vieira → Philip Otele
6th Substitution
Event
Mohamed Amoura → Jesper Lindstrøm
2nd Substitution
60'
Event
Adam Daghim → Jan Bürger
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Lovro Majer → Yannick Gerhardt
4th Substitution
60'
58'
Event
Jean-Luc Dompé
Right foot shot / 3rd Penalty
Event
Jonas Adjetey
Persistent fouling / 4th Yellowcard
57'
46'
Event
Warmed Omari → Daniel Elfadli
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Jesper Lindstrøm
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
45'
33'
Event
Luka Vuskovic
Right foot shot / 2nd Penalty
Event
Moritz Jenz
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
32'
31'
Event
Luka Vuskovic
Penalty awarded
Event
Christian Eriksen
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
22'
20'
Event
Daniel Elfadli
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
90
Update Update
Offside call against VfL Wolfsburg. Kento Shiogai has been flagged for being in an offside position.
90
Update Update
Kento Shiogai from VfL Wolfsburg commits a handball.
90
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Konstantinos Koulierakis of VfL Wolfsburg attempted a header from the center of the box following a corner, but it went just wide.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to VfL Wolfsburg after Miro Muheim gave away the ball.
90
Update Update
The game is currently on hold due to an injury to Jordan Torunarigha from Hamburger SV.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 8 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Jordan Torunarigha of Hamburger SV took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the left after the corner kick.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Hamburger SV after Jonas Adjetey allowed the ball to go out.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Mohammed Amoura from VfL Wolfsburg fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to VfL Wolfsburg after Luka Vuskovic allowed the ball to go out.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to VfL Wolfsburg after Giorgi Gocholeishvili allowed the ball to go out.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to VfL Wolfsburg after Miro Muheim allowed the ball to go out.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: VfL Wolfsburg 1, Hamburger SV 2.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Fábio Vieira of Hamburger SV has been shown a yellow card.
89
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Fábio Vieira from Hamburger SV takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area. Kamil Grabara from VfL Wolfsburg makes a fantastic save, denying the attempt at the top center of the goal. The assist was provided by Warmed Omari.
89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Hamburger SV after a play that resulted in Kamil Grabara conceding.
89
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Jordan Torunarigha from Hamburger SV fires a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Albert Sambi Lokonga.
87
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Adam Daghim from VfL Wolfsburg attempted a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Konstantinos Koulierakis, who delivered a cross.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hamburger SV: Giorgi Gocholeishvili comes on to replace William Mikelbrencis, who is leaving the field due to an injury.
85
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Kento Shiogai of VfL Wolfsburg took a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it went wide to the left.
83
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play.
82
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Luka Vuskovic from Hamburger SV.
79
Update Update
Miro Muheim from Hamburger SV earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
79
Update Update
Miro Muheim from Hamburger SV earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for VfL Wolfsburg: Maximilian Arnold comes on to replace Moritz Jenz.
77
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Hamburger SV after Konstantinos Koulierakis allowed the ball to go out.
72
Update Update
Jonas Adjetey from VfL Wolfsburg commits a handball.
71
Update Update
Kento Shiogai from VfL Wolfsburg committed a foul.
71
Update Update
Jordan Torunarigha from Hamburger SV has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for VfL Wolfsburg: Kento Shiogai comes on to replace Dzenan Pejcinovic.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hamburger SV: Fábio Vieira comes on to replace Philip Otele.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hamburger SV: Yussuf Poulsen replaces Jean-Luc Dompé.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hamburger SV: Yussuf Poulsen replaces Jean-Luc Dompé.
66
Update Update
Match interruption - VfL Wolfsburg.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to VfL Wolfsburg after a play that resulted in a foul by Jordan Torunarigha.
64
Corner Corner
Dzenan Pejcinovic of VfL Wolfsburg heads the ball from close range following a corner, but it strikes the right post.
63
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Christian Eriksen of VfL Wolfsburg takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Mohammed Amoura.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to VfL Wolfsburg after Warmed Omari allowed the ball to go out.
62
Update Update
Offside call against Hamburger SV. Philip Otele has been caught in an offside position.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for VfL Wolfsburg: Adam Daghim replaces Jan Bürger.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for VfL Wolfsburg: Mohammed Amoura comes on to replace Jesper Lindstrøm.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for VfL Wolfsburg: Lovro Majer comes on to replace Yannick Gerhardt.
58
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! VfL Wolfsburg 1, Hamburger SV 2. Jean-Luc Dompé from Hamburger SV successfully scores the penalty, striking the ball with his right foot into the bottom left corner.
57
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jonas Adjetey of VfL Wolfsburg has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
57
Update Update
Jonas Adjetey of VfL Wolfsburg has given away a penalty due to a foul committed inside the penalty box.
57
Update Update
Penalty awarded to Hamburger SV! Luka Vuskovic is brought down inside the box.
56
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Hamburger SV after Kamil Grabara allowed the ball to go out.
56
Corner Corner
A new offensive play is underway. Ransford Königsdörffer from Hamburger SV takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but Kamil Grabara from VfL Wolfsburg makes a save, directing the ball to the left corner. The assist came from Albert Sambi Lokonga.
55
Update Update
Vinicius Souza of VfL Wolfsburg earned a free kick in the defensive area.
55
Update Update
Philip Otele from Hamburger SV committed a foul.
54
Update Update
Jonas Adjetey from VfL Wolfsburg committed a foul.
54
Update Update
Philip Otele from Hamburger SV has been awarded a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
51
Update Update
Albert Sambi Lokonga of Hamburger SV has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
51
Update Update
Yannick Gerhardt from VfL Wolfsburg committed a foul.
49
Update Update
Albert Sambi Lokonga of Hamburger SV earned a free kick in an offensive position.
49
Update Update
Ransford Königsdörffer from Hamburger SV has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
49
Update Update
Vinicius Souza from VfL Wolfsburg committed a foul.
49
Update Update
Moritz Jenz committed a foul for VfL Wolfsburg.
47
Update Update
Offside call against Hamburger SV. William Mikelbrencis is caught in an offside position.
47
Update Update
Offside call against Hamburger SV. William Mikelbrencis has been caught offside.
46
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to VfL Wolfsburg after a defensive play by William Mikelbrencis.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at 1-1 between VfL Wolfsburg and Hamburger SV.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jesper Lindstrøm of VfL Wolfsburg has been shown a yellow card.
45
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Philip Otele from Hamburger SV takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, Kamil Grabara, the goalkeeper for VfL Wolfsburg, makes a solid save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Jean-Luc Dompé.
45
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Jean-Luc Dompé of Hamburger SV attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
45
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Dzenan Pejcinovic of VfL Wolfsburg attempted a header from the center of the box, but it went just wide. The cross was delivered by Christian Eriksen.
45
Update Update
Opportunity squandered. Konstantinos Koulierakis of VfL Wolfsburg attempted a header from the center of the penalty area but failed to convert.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jesper Lindstrøm from VfL Wolfsburg has been shown a yellow card.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 6 minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
Ransford Königsdörffer from Hamburger SV has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
Yannick Gerhardt from VfL Wolfsburg earned a free kick in an offensive position.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Jordan Torunarigha of Hamburger SV.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hamburger SV: Omari comes on to replace Daniel Elfadli.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hamburger SV: Omari comes on to replace Daniel Elfadli.
44
Update Update
Miro Muheim from Hamburger SV committed a foul.
44
Update Update
Jan Bürger from VfL Wolfsburg was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
43
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Jean-Luc Dompé from Hamburger SV takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area. Kamil Grabara from VfL Wolfsburg makes a save, diving to his left to stop the attempt. The assist for this play came from Philip Otele.
41
Update Update
Offside call against VfL Wolfsburg. Christian Eriksen has been caught in an offside position.
40
Update Update
Dzenan Pejcinovic from VfL Wolfsburg has been awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
40
Update Update
Foul committed by Daniel Elfadli of Hamburger SV.
39
Update Update
Offside call against Hamburger SV. Jean-Luc Dompé has been flagged for being offside.
38
Update Update
Jan Bürger from VfL Wolfsburg has been awarded a free kick in the attacking zone.
38
Update Update
Jan Bürger from VfL Wolfsburg earned a free kick on the right flank.
35
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds. Jean-Luc Dompé from Hamburger SV takes a right-footed shot from outside the box on the left, but the goalkeeper makes a save.
34
Update Update
Ransford Königsdörffer from Hamburger SV was awarded a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
34
Update Update
Jonas Adjetey from VfL Wolfsburg committed a foul.
33
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now 1-1 between VfL Wolfsburg and Hamburger SV. Luka Vuskovic from Hamburger SV successfully scores the penalty, striking the ball with his right foot straight down the middle of the goal.
32
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Moritz Jenz from VfL Wolfsburg has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
31
Update Update
VAR Review: Penalty awarded to Hamburger SV.
30
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Luka Vuskovic from Hamburger SV.
30
Update Update
The pause has ended. The teams are set to resume play.
28
Update Update
William Mikelbrencis from Hamburger SV earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
28
Update Update
Jeanuël Belocian from VfL Wolfsburg committed a foul.
28
Update Update
Moritz Jenz from VfL Wolfsburg has given away a penalty due to a foul committed inside the box.
28
Update Update
Penalty awarded to Hamburger SV! Luka Vuskovic is fouled inside the box.
22
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! VfL Wolfsburg takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Hamburger SV. Christian Eriksen from VfL Wolfsburg successfully converts the penalty, striking the ball with his right foot right into the middle of the goal.
20
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Jan Bürger from VfL Wolfsburg takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, Daniel Heuer Fernandes of Hamburger SV makes a solid save, pushing the ball to the right corner.
20
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Daniel Elfadli from Hamburger SV has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
20
Update Update
Penalty awarded to VfL Wolfsburg! Yannick Gerhardt is fouled inside the box.
20
Update Update
Daniel Elfadli of Hamburger SV has given away a penalty due to a foul committed inside the box.
17
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to VfL Wolfsburg after Luka Vuskovic allowed the ball to go out.
15
Update Update
Jean-Luc Dompé from Hamburger SV has been awarded a free kick in the defensive zone.
15
Update Update
Jean-Luc Dompé from Hamburger SV has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
14
Update Update
Moritz Jenz commits a foul for VfL Wolfsburg.
13
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort underway. Dzenan Pejcinovic from VfL Wolfsburg takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
10
Update Update
Ransford Königsdörffer from Hamburger SV was awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
10
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Ransford Königsdörffer from Hamburger SV attempted a left-footed shot from close range but failed to convert.
7
Update Update
Ransford Königsdörffer from Hamburger SV has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
7
Update Update
Moritz Jenz of VfL Wolfsburg committed a foul.
4
Update Update
Nicolai Remberg from Hamburger SV has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
4
Update Update
Yannick Gerhardt from VfL Wolfsburg committed a foul.
3
Update Update
Jesper Lindstrøm from VfL Wolfsburg committed a foul.
3
Update Update
Albert Sambi Lokonga of Hamburger SV has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
2
Update Update
Offside call against VfL Wolfsburg. Dzenan Pejcinovic has been caught in an offside position.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Hamburger SV exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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