VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
MHPArena Sun, 15 Mar - 6:30 PM
Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart VFB
1 Winner 0
RB Leipzig RBL
Full Time Sun, 15 Mar 6:30 PM
Deniz Undav - 56'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. VfB Stuttgart 1–0 RB Leipzig. The result saw VfB Stuttgart take the points. VfB Stuttgart showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 57%–43%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: VfB Stuttgart showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Aytekin

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. Leicher

1st Assistant

T. Schultes

2nd Assistant

F. Badstübner

4th Official

VfB Stuttgart S. Hoeneß
S. Hoeneß
VS
RB Leipzig O. Werner
O. Werner
2.12
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.86
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
SC Freiburg Rank: 81 W
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 76 W
FC Union Berlin Rank: 76 D
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: 81 W
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: 90 W
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: 85 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Augsburg Rank: 76 W
Hamburger SV Rank: 77 W
Borussia Dortmund Rank: 91 D
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: 76 D
FC Köln Rank: 76 W
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: 79 L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 2 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home VfB Stuttgart
39.33%
Draw
23.95%
Away RB Leipzig
36.72%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
85.67
84.45
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
VfB Stuttgart
RB Leipzig
Power Score
85.67
84.45
League Position
4
5
Global Rank
28
33

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
VfB Stuttgart — Opponent-weighted form score
RB Leipzig — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) VfB Stuttgart RB Leipzig

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

VfB Stuttgart

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

RB Leipzig

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

VfB Stuttgart ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy RB Leipzig
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.93
26.51
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.51
26.93
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
VfB Stuttgart +0.04 Efficiency Index
vs
RB Leipzig -0.04 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
VfB Stuttgart
RB Leipzig
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

VfB Stuttgart ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy RB Leipzig
Created Set-piece attacking threat
VfB Stuttgart RB Leipzig
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
VfB Stuttgart RB Leipzig
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
VfB Stuttgart
RB Leipzig
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

VfB Stuttgart VFB Home
11 matches
RB Leipzig RBL Away
Match Record
3
Wins
7
1
Draws
1
7
Losses
3
Goals
14
Goals Scored
25
25
Goals Conceded
14
-11
Goal Difference
+11

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T02:56:49+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
A. Nübel
Germany
33 A. Nübel
F. Jeltsch
Germany
29 F. Jeltsch
L. Jaquez
Switzerland
14 L. Jaquez
R. Hendriks
Netherlands
3 R. Hendriks
J. Leweling
Substitution
Germany
18 J. Leweling
A. Karazor
Substitution
Germany
16 (C) A. Karazor
A. Stiller
Germany
6 A. Stiller
C. Führich
Substitution
Germany
10 C. Führich
B. El Khannous
Substitution
Morocco
11 B. El Khannous
E. Demirović
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
9 E. Demirović
D. Undav
Germany
26 D. Undav
Pitch
M. Vandevoordt
Belgium
26 M. Vandevoordt
D. Raum
Germany
22 (C) D. Raum
C. Lukeba
France
23 C. Lukeba
W. Orban
Hungary
4 W. Orban
R. Baku
Substitution
Germany
17 R. Baku
C. Baumgartner
Austria
14 C. Baumgartner
N. Seiwald
Substitution
Austria
13 N. Seiwald
E. Banzuzi
Substitution
Netherlands
6 E. Banzuzi
A. Nordby Nusa
Substitution
Norway
7 A. Nordby Nusa
R. Cardoso da Cruz
Substitution
Brazil
40 R. Cardoso da Cruz
Y. Diomande
49 Y. Diomande

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 15, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Stadium :
MHPArena
Capacity :
60449
Attendance :
57500
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Christian Leicher
Deniz Aytekin
Tobias Schultes
Florian Badstübner

Statistics

Possession
VFB
56%
RBL
44%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
4 Big Chances Created 2
7 Shots 4
47 Dangerous attacks 48
57 Possession 43
5 Corners 6
16 Free kicks 5
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

15 Throwins 22
5 Goal Kicks 14
24 Successful Headers 28
8 Dribble Attempts 20
6 Successful Dribbles 6
75 Successful Dribbles Percentage 30
112 Ball Safe 109
12 Goal Attempts 7
0 Hit Woodwork 2
1 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

129 Attacks 78
3 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

86 Long Passes 67
76 Successful Passes Percentage 72
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37
34 Successful Long Passes 25
374 Successful Passes 263
490 Passes 365
9 Key Passes 8

Defensive

11 Interceptions 17
21 Tackles 7
4 Saves 3
66 Duels Won 46

Build-up

22 Total Crosses 16
5 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

5 Fouls 16
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Deniz Aytekin

Starting XI ▼

33
Alexander Nübel
Alexander Nübel Goalkeeper
7.56
3
Ramon Hendriks
Ramon Hendriks Defender
6.97
14
Luca Jaquez
Luca Jaquez Defender
6.91
29
Finn Jeltsch
Finn Jeltsch Defender
7.04
6
Angelo Stiller
Angelo Stiller Midfielder
8.09
10
Chris Führich
Chris Führich Midfielder
7.62
7
Maximilian Mittelstädt
Maximilian Mittelstädt
Defender68'
6.6
16
Atakan Karazor
Atakan Karazor (C) Midfielder
7.18
30
Chema Andrés
Chema Andrés
Midfielder85'
6.58
18
Jamie Leweling
Jamie Leweling Midfielder
7.35
22
Lorenz Assignon
Lorenz Assignon
Defender81'
6.56
9
Ermedin Demirovic
Ermedin Demirovic Attacker
6.56
8
Tiago Tomás
Tiago Tomás
Attacker69'
6.5
11
Bilal El Khannouss
Bilal El Khannouss Attacker
7.14
28
Nikolas Nartey
Nikolas Nartey
Midfielder69'
6.39
26
Deniz Undav
Deniz Undav Attacker
7.48
Referee : Deniz Aytekin

Starting XI ▼

26
Maarten Vandevoordt
Maarten Vandevoordt Goalkeeper
6.19
4
Willi Orbán
Willi Orbán Defender
7.93
17
Ridle Baku
Ridle Baku Defender
6.43
39
Benjamin Henrichs
Benjamin Henrichs
Defender88'
22
David Raum
David Raum (C) Defender
7
23
Castello Lukeba
Castello Lukeba Defender
6.97
6
Ezechiel Banzuzi
Ezechiel Banzuzi Midfielder
6.58
10
Brajan Gruda
Brajan Gruda
Attacker64'
6.69
13
Nicolas Seiwald
Nicolas Seiwald Midfielder
7.15
24
Xaver Schlager
Xaver Schlager
Midfielder71'
6.7
14
Christoph Baumgartner
Christoph Baumgartner Midfielder
6.03
7
Antonio Nusa
Antonio Nusa Attacker
6.27
9
Johan Bakayoko
Johan Bakayoko
Attacker71'
6.55
40
Rômulo
Rômulo Attacker
5.88
11
Conrad Harder
Conrad Harder
Attacker71'
6.49
49
Yan Diomande
Yan Diomande Attacker
6.49

Events

2ND-HALF
88'
Event
Benjamin Henrichs → Ridle Baku
10th Substitution
Event
Chema Andrés → Atakan Karazor
9th Substitution
85'
83'
Event
Xaver Schlager
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Lorenz Assignon → Jamie Leweling
8th Substitution
81'
71'
Event
Xaver Schlager → Nicolas Seiwald
7th Substitution
71'
Event
Johan Bakayoko → Antonio Nusa
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Conrad Harder → Rômulo
6th Substitution
Event
Nikolas Nartey → Bilal El Khannouss
3rd Substitution
69'
Event
Tiago Tomás → Ermedin Demirovic
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Maximilian Mittelstädt → Chris Führich
2nd Substitution
68'
Event
Atakan Karazor
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
68'
64'
Event
Brajan Gruda → Ezechiel Banzuzi
1st Substitution
Event
Deniz Undav
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
56'
1ST-HALF
39'
Event
Rômulo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
39'
Event
4th Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort unfolds as Deniz Undav from VfB Stuttgart takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area. However, Maarten Vandevoordt, the goalkeeper for RB Leipzig, makes a save right in the center of the goal.
90
Update Update
Ramon Hendriks from VfB Stuttgart has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be four minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Willi Orbán from RB Leipzig committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Lorenz Assignon of VfB Stuttgart was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Offside call against RB Leipzig. David Raum has been caught in an offside position.
90
Update Update
Nikolas Nartey from VfB Stuttgart committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Xaver Schlager from RB Leipzig has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Tiago Tomás - VfB Stuttgart.
90
Update Update
Brajan Gruda from RB Leipzig earned a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Conrad Harder from RB Leipzig committed a foul.
89
Update Update
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Willi Orbán from RB Leipzig heads the ball from close range, but Alexander Nübel of VfB Stuttgart makes a fantastic save, denying him at the top center of the goal. The assist came from David Raum.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for RB Leipzig: Benjamin Henrichs is coming on to replace Ridle Baku.
86
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Maximilian Mittelstädt from VfB Stuttgart attempted a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for VfB Stuttgart: Chema Andres replaces Atakan Karazor.
85
Update Update
Tiago Tomás from VfB Stuttgart earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
85
Update Update
Tiago Tomás of VfB Stuttgart earned a free kick in an offensive position.
83
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. Brajan Gruda of RB Leipzig heads the ball from the center of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
83
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Xaver Schlager from RB Leipzig has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
83
Update Update
Tiago Tomás from VfB Stuttgart earned a free kick while defending.
83
Update Update
Xaver Schlager from RB Leipzig committed a foul.
81
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to RB Leipzig after a play that resulted in Atakan Karazor giving up possession.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for VfB Stuttgart: Lorenz Assignon comes on to replace Jamie Leweling, who has sustained an injury.
76
Update Update
Atakan Karazor from VfB Stuttgart earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
76
Update Update
Christoph Baumgartner from RB Leipzig committed a foul.
73
Update Update
Castello Lukeba of RB Leipzig commits a handball.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for RB Leipzig: Conrad Harder comes on to replace Rômulo.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for RB Leipzig: Johan Bakayoko comes on to replace Antonio Nusa.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for RB Leipzig: Xaver Schlager comes on to replace Nicolas Seiwald.
70
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to RB Leipzig after a play that resulted in a deflection off Maximilian Mittelstädt.
70
Update Update
Willi Orbán from RB Leipzig committed a foul.
70
Update Update
Atakan Karazor from VfB Stuttgart has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for VfB Stuttgart: Nikolas Nartey comes on to replace Bilal El Khannouss.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for VfB Stuttgart: Tiago Tomás comes on to replace Ermedin Demirovic.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for VfB Stuttgart: Maximilian Mittelstädt comes on to replace Chris Führich.
68
Update Update
Atakan Karazor from VfB Stuttgart committed a foul.
68
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Atakan Karazor from VfB Stuttgart has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
68
Update Update
Yan Diomande from RB Leipzig earned a free kick in the defensive area.
66
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to RB Leipzig after Finn Jeltsch allowed the ball to go out.
64
Corner Corner
Another offensive push underway. Brajan Gruda from RB Leipzig takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Alexander Nübel of VfB Stuttgart makes a save in the bottom left corner. The assist came from Yan Diomande.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for RB Leipzig: Brajan Gruda comes on to replace Ezechiel Banzuzi.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to VfB Stuttgart after Willi Orbán allowed the ball to go out.
60
Update Update
Deniz Undav of VfB Stuttgart was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
60
Update Update
Ridle Baku from RB Leipzig committed a foul.
59
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Castello Lukeba from RB Leipzig takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist comes from Willi Orbán.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! VfB Stuttgart takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against RB Leipzig. Deniz Undav finds the back of the net with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, placing it perfectly into the right corner. The assist comes from Chris Führich.
56
Update Update
Atakan Karazor from VfB Stuttgart has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
56
Update Update
Rômulo from RB Leipzig committed a foul.
55
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Deniz Undav from VfB Stuttgart heads the ball from close range but sends it over the bar. The assist came from Angelo Stiller, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to VfB Stuttgart after Maarten Vandevoordt allowed the ball to go out.
54
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Deniz Undav from VfB Stuttgart takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Maarten Vandevoordt of RB Leipzig makes a save, diving to his left to stop the ball.
53
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to RB Leipzig after Jamie Leweling allowed the ball to go out.
53
Update Update
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Nicolas Seiwald of RB Leipzig heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but Alexander Nübel, the goalkeeper for VfB Stuttgart, makes a crucial save right in front of the goal. The assist came from David Raum, who delivered a precise cross.
51
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Jamie Leweling of VfB Stuttgart attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the right of the goal. The assist came from Angelo Stiller.
50
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Deniz Undav from VfB Stuttgart takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it goes over the bar and to the left.
47
Update Update
Ezechiel Banzuzi from RB Leipzig committed a foul.
47
Update Update
Angelo Stiller from VfB Stuttgart was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
47
Update Update
Yan Diomande from RB Leipzig has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
47
Update Update
Ramon Hendriks of VfB Stuttgart committed a foul.
45
Update Update
Ezechiel Banzuzi from RB Leipzig committed a foul.
45
Update Update
Bilal El Khannouss from VfB Stuttgart earned a free kick in an offensive position.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Corner Corner
Another offensive push! Jamie Leweling of VfB Stuttgart takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Maarten Vandevoordt of RB Leipzig makes a great save, diving to the left corner. The assist came from Chris Führich.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score still tied at VfB Stuttgart 0, RB Leipzig 0.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at VfB Stuttgart 0, RB Leipzig 0.
45
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
44
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Antonio Nusa from RB Leipzig.
40
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
39
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Rômulo from RB Leipzig has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
39
Update Update
Rômulo from RB Leipzig committed a foul.
39
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Angelo Stiller from VfB Stuttgart.
39
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Ermedin Demirovic of VfB Stuttgart attempted a header from the center of the box but failed to convert. The assist came from Chris Führich, who delivered a cross.
34
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity goes awry. Christoph Baumgartner of RB Leipzig takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it sails over the bar. The assist was provided by David Raum.
33
Update Update
Willi Orbán from RB Leipzig has been awarded a free kick in the defensive zone.
32
Update Update
Deniz Undav committed a foul against VfB Stuttgart.
32
Update Update
Willi Orbán from RB Leipzig committed a foul.
31
Update Update
Nicolas Seiwald from RB Leipzig attempts a header from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully intercepted.
31
Update Update
Deniz Undav of VfB Stuttgart earned a free kick in the defensive area.
30
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to RB Leipzig after a play that resulted in a deflection off Ramon Hendriks.
22
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to VfB Stuttgart after Ridle Baku allowed the ball to go out.
21
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Chris Führich of VfB Stuttgart attempted a left-footed shot from a challenging angle on the left side following a corner kick.
21
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to VfB Stuttgart after Willi Orbán allowed the ball to go out of play.
20
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Bilal El Khannouss from VfB Stuttgart fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
20
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Deniz Undav of VfB Stuttgart heads the ball from the center of the box, but it goes over the bar and to the left. The assist came from Angelo Stiller, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to VfB Stuttgart after Castello Lukeba allowed the ball to go out.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to VfB Stuttgart after Castello Lukeba allowed the ball to go out.
15
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted! Christoph Baumgartner of RB Leipzig attempted a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it went just wide. The setup came from David Raum, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
14
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to RB Leipzig after Luca Jaquez was unable to clear the ball.
11
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort underway. Nicolas Seiwald from RB Leipzig takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper.
8
Update Update
Christoph Baumgartner of RB Leipzig commits a handball.
6
Update Update
Angelo Stiller from VfB Stuttgart has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
6
Update Update
Rômulo from RB Leipzig committed a foul.
5
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Rômulo from RB Leipzig attempted a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
1
Update Update
Christoph Baumgartner from RB Leipzig committed a foul.
1
Update Update
Angelo Stiller from VfB Stuttgart earned a free kick in an offensive position.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: VfB Stuttgart exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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