VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
MHPArena Sat, 4 Apr - 4:30 PM
Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart VFB
0 Winner 2
Borussia Dortmund BVB
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 4:30 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
|
Goal
Julian Brandt - 90+6'
Karim Adeyemi - 90+4'

CONTEXT

The match between VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund has finished, with Dortmund securing a 2-0 victory away from home. Following a goalless first half where the teams were completely even at the break, the visitors found their breakthrough in the second period to claim the win. Pre-match expectations favored the hosts, with VfB Stuttgart holding a 41.6% implied win probability compared to Dortmund's 34.4%, leaving a 24% chance of a draw. Because Dortmund claimed the victory despite entering as the slight underdog, the final outcome did not align with the pre-match market. This upset resulted in a significant deviation of 65.6% favoring Borussia Dortmund. Despite the defeat, VfB Stuttgart heavily dominated the ball, maintaining 67% possession compared to Dortmund's 33%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to determine if the outcome aligned with the overall chance quality created. However, the teams' efficiency shift was in line with standard expectations. Finally, the match concluded without any red cards being issued to either side, ensuring that player dismissals did not artificially impact the final result.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Borussia Dortmund showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Schröder

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Neitzel

1st Assistant

P. Hüwe

2nd Assistant

W. Haslberger

4th Official

VfB Stuttgart S. Hoeneß
S. Hoeneß
VS
Borussia Dortmund N. Kovač
N. Kovač
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.18
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Augsburg Rank: 76 W
RB Leipzig Rank: 85 W
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: 81 D
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: 74 W
Heidenheim Rank: 70 D
FC Köln Rank: 74 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hamburger SV Rank: 77 W
FC Augsburg Rank: 76 W
FC Köln Rank: 74 W
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 L
RB Leipzig Rank: 86 D
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: 81 W
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 10 - 18
18

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home VfB Stuttgart
41.57%
Draw
24%
Away Borussia Dortmund
34.43%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
85.46
90.8
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
VfB Stuttgart
Borussia Dortmund
Power Score
85.46
90.8
League Position
4
2
Global Rank
32
10

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
VfB Stuttgart — Opponent-weighted form score
Borussia Dortmund — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) VfB Stuttgart Borussia Dortmund

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

VfB Stuttgart

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Borussia Dortmund

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

VfB Stuttgart ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Borussia Dortmund
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.40
17.58
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.58
24.40
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
VfB Stuttgart +0.59 Efficiency Index
vs
Borussia Dortmund -0.59 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
VfB Stuttgart
Borussia Dortmund
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

VfB Stuttgart ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Borussia Dortmund
Created Set-piece attacking threat
VfB Stuttgart Borussia Dortmund
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
VfB Stuttgart Borussia Dortmund
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
VfB Stuttgart
Borussia Dortmund
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
VfB Stuttgart
vs
Borussia Dortmund
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
VfB Stuttgart Borussia Dortmund
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
VfB Stuttgart 0.19
Borussia Dortmund 0.31
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
VfB Stuttgart Borussia Dortmund
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
VfB Stuttgart 0.13
Borussia Dortmund 0.00
VfB Stuttgart
Borussia Dortmund
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 37 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

VfB Stuttgart VFB Home
37 matches
Borussia Dortmund BVB Away
Match Record
9
Wins
18
10
Draws
10
18
Losses
9
Goals
55
Goals Scored
79
79
Goals Conceded
55
-24
Goal Difference
+24

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:05:41+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
A. Nübel
Germany
33 A. Nübel
F. Jeltsch
Germany
29 F. Jeltsch
J. Chabot
Germany
24 J. Chabot
R. Hendriks
Netherlands
3 R. Hendriks
L. Assignon
Substitution
France
22 L. Assignon
A. Karazor
Germany
16 A. Karazor
A. Stiller
Substitution
Germany
6 A. Stiller
M. Mittelstädt
Substitution
Germany
7 M. Mittelstädt
N. Nartey
Substitution
Denmark
28 N. Nartey
C. Führich
Substitution
Germany
10 C. Führich
D. Undav
Germany
26 D. Undav
Pitch
G. Kobel
Switzerland
1 G. Kobel
R. Bensebaini
Algeria
5 R. Bensebaini
N. Schlotterbeck
Germany
4 N. Schlotterbeck
W. Anton
Germany
3 W. Anton
D. Svensson
Sweden
24 D. Svensson
C. Chukwuemeka
Substitution
England
17 C. Chukwuemeka
J. Bellingham
England
7 J. Bellingham
M. Sabitzer
Austria
20 M. Sabitzer
J. Ryerson
Norway
26 J. Ryerson
M. Beier
Substitution
Germany
14 M. Beier
S. Guirassy
Substitution
Guinea
9 S. Guirassy

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 04, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium :
MHPArena
Capacity :
60449
Attendance :
60000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Jan Clemens Neitzel
Philipp Hüwe
Wolfgang Haslberger
Robert Schröder

Statistics

Possession
VFB
65%
BVB
35%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
0 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 4
67 Dangerous attacks 16
67 Possession 33
5 Corners 2
12 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

23 Throwins 12
42 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
5 Substitutions 3
2 Goal Kicks 11
5 Successful Dribbles 4
27 Successful Headers 16
72 Ball Safe 65
0 Assists 1
6 Goal Attempts 4
12 Dribble Attempts 10

Attacking

130 Attacks 79

Possession

7 Key Passes 4
84 Successful Passes Percentage 70
517 Successful Passes 211
616 Passes 303
69 Long Passes 58
55 Successful Long Passes Percentage 24
38 Successful Long Passes 14

Defensive

13 Tackles 15
55 Duels Won 44
1 Saves 3
5 Interceptions 8

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 2
25 Total Crosses 10

Discipline

10 Fouls 12
3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Robert Schröder

Starting XI ▼

33
Alexander Nübel
Alexander Nübel Goalkeeper
3
Ramon Hendriks
Ramon Hendriks Defender
24
Jeff Chabot
Jeff Chabot Defender
29
Finn Jeltsch
Finn Jeltsch Defender
6
Angelo Stiller
Angelo Stiller Midfielder
30
Chema Andrés
Chema Andrés
Midfielder88'
7
Maximilian Mittelstädt
Maximilian Mittelstädt Midfielder
9
Ermedin Demirovic
Ermedin Demirovic
Attacker88'
16
Atakan Karazor
Atakan Karazor Midfielder
22
Lorenz Assignon
Lorenz Assignon Midfielder
8
Tiago Tomás
Tiago Tomás
Attacker72'
10
Chris Führich
Chris Führich Attacker
18
Jamie Leweling
Jamie Leweling
Attacker69'
26
Deniz Undav
Deniz Undav Attacker
28
Nikolas Nartey
Nikolas Nartey Attacker
11
Bilal El Khannouss
Bilal El Khannouss
Midfielder72'
Referee : Robert Schröder

Starting XI ▼

1
Gregor Kobel
Gregor Kobel Goalkeeper
3
Waldemar Anton
Waldemar Anton Defender
4
Nico Schlotterbeck
Nico Schlotterbeck Defender
5
Ramy Bensebaini
Ramy Bensebaini Defender
7
Jobe Bellingham
Jobe Bellingham Midfielder
17
Carney Chukwuemeka
Carney Chukwuemeka Midfielder
27
Karim Adeyemi
Karim Adeyemi
Attacker64'
20
Marcel Sabitzer
Marcel Sabitzer Midfielder
24
Daniel Svensson
Daniel Svensson Midfielder
26
Julian Ryerson
Julian Ryerson Midfielder
9
Serhou Guirassy
Serhou Guirassy Attacker
21
Fábio Silva
Fábio Silva
Attacker64'
14
Maximilian Beier
Maximilian Beier Attacker
10
Julian Brandt
Julian Brandt
Midfielder72'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Atakan Karazor
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
90+7'
90+7'
Event
Julian Ryerson
6th Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Julian Brandt
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
90+4'
Event
Karim Adeyemi
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Chema Andrés → Angelo Stiller
7th Substitution
88'
Event
Ermedin Demirovic → Maximilian Mittelstädt
8th Substitution
88'
80'
Event
Karim Adeyemi
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Bilal El Khannouss → Nikolas Nartey
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Tiago Tomás → Lorenz Assignon
6th Substitution
72'
72'
Event
Julian Brandt → Maximilian Beier
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Marcel Sabitzer
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Jamie Leweling → Chris Führich
3rd Substitution
69'
Event
Ramon Hendriks
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
65'
64'
Event
Karim Adeyemi → Carney Chukwuemeka
1st Substitution
64'
Event
Fábio Silva → Serhou Guirassy
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
29'
Event
Carney Chukwuemeka
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Deniz Undav of VfB Stuttgart is flagged for offside.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Borussia Dortmund lead 2-0 with Julian Brandt scoring from the right side of the box into the top right corner, assisted by Fábio Silva during a fast break.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Borussia Dortmund takes the lead 1-0 with Karim Adeyemi scoring from the center of the box with a right-footed shot into the top right corner.
90
Attempt Attempt
Deniz Undav's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Atakan Karazor of VfB Stuttgart receives a yellow card.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Julian Ryerson of Borussia Dortmund receives a yellow card for excessive celebration.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with VfB Stuttgart losing 0-2 to Borussia Dortmund.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for VfB Stuttgart: Chema Andres replaces Angelo Stiller.
88
Update Update
Fábio Silva commits dangerous play for Borussia Dortmund.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for VfB Stuttgart: Ermedin Demirovic replaces Maximilian Mittelstädt.
88
Update Update
Ramon Hendriks of VfB Stuttgart won a free kick in defense.
84
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Jamie Leweling from VfB Stuttgart shoots with his left foot from outside the box, but it's high and wide to the left. Assist by Maximilian Mittelstädt.
82
Attempt Attempt
Angelo Stiller from VfB Stuttgart misses a chance with a left-footed shot from outside the box.
81
Update Update
Offside called against VfB Stuttgart. Jamie Leweling is in an offside position.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Karim Adeyemi of Borussia Dortmund receives a yellow card for a foul.
79
Update Update
Karim Adeyemi of Borussia Dortmund is fouled.
79
Update Update
Angelo Stiller from VfB Stuttgart won a free kick in the attacking area.
73
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Ramy Bensebaini from Borussia Dortmund.
73
Update Update
Nico Schlotterbeck from Borussia Dortmund won a free kick in defense.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for VfB Stuttgart: Tiago Tomás replaces Lorenz Assignon.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for VfB Stuttgart: Bilal El Khannouss replaces Nikolas Nartey.
72
Update Update
Nico Schlotterbeck of Borussia Dortmund won a free kick in defense.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Borussia Dortmund: Julian Brandt replaces Maximilian Beier.
71
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marcel Sabitzer of Borussia Dortmund receives a yellow card.
71
Update Update
Marcel Sabitzer fouled a player from Borussia Dortmund.
69
Update Update
Angelo Stiller of VfB Stuttgart won a free kick in defense.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for VfB Stuttgart: Jamie Leweling replaces Chris Führich.
65
Update Update
Marcel Sabitzer of Borussia Dortmund won a free kick in defense.
65
Update Update
Ramon Hendriks of VfB Stuttgart commits a foul.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ramon Hendriks of VfB Stuttgart receives a yellow card for a foul.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Borussia Dortmund: Fábio Silva replaces Serhou Guirassy.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Borussia Dortmund: Karim Adeyemi replaces Carney Chukwuemeka.
62
Update Update
Foul committed by Julian Ryerson of Borussia Dortmund.
62
Update Update
Maximilian Mittelstädt of VfB Stuttgart won a free kick in defense.
59
Update Update
Angelo Stiller from VfB Stuttgart won a free kick in defense.
59
Update Update
Waldemar Anton of Borussia Dortmund committed a foul.
58
Update Update
Julian Ryerson of Borussia Dortmund commits a handball.
56
Update Update
Foul committed by Nikolas Nartey of VfB Stuttgart.
56
Update Update
Nico Schlotterbeck from Borussia Dortmund won a free kick in defense.
55
Corner Corner
VfB Stuttgart wins a corner after Daniel Svensson concedes.
55
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Lorenz Assignon of VfB Stuttgart has a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, but it's saved in the left corner by Gregor Kobel of Borussia Dortmund. The assist comes from Angelo Stiller.
52
Update Update
Ramy Bensebaini's header from inside the six-yard box is blocked on the left side after a cross from Daniel Svensson.
51
Corner Corner
Borussia Dortmund wins a corner after Maximilian Mittelstädt concedes.
49
Update Update
Offside called against VfB Stuttgart. Chris Führich is in an offside position.
48
Update Update
Nikolas Nartey from VfB Stuttgart won a free kick on the right wing.
48
Update Update
Jobe Bellingham from Borussia Dortmund committed a foul.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund tied at 0-0.
45
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Carney Chukwuemeka from Borussia Dortmund took a right-footed shot from outside the box.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 2 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at VfB Stuttgart 0, Borussia Dortmund 0.
43
Corner Corner
VfB Stuttgart wins a corner after Carney Chukwuemeka concedes.
43
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Chris Führich of VfB Stuttgart shoots with his right foot from the center of the box but it goes high after the corner.
40
Update Update
Angelo Stiller from VfB Stuttgart won a free kick in defense.
40
Update Update
Foul committed by Daniel Svensson of Borussia Dortmund.
39
Update Update
Julian Ryerson of Borussia Dortmund commits a foul.
39
Update Update
Maximilian Mittelstädt of VfB Stuttgart committed a foul.
37
Update Update
Foul committed by Jeff Chabot of VfB Stuttgart.
37
Update Update
Serhou Guirassy of Borussia Dortmund won a free kick in defense.
35
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Chris Führich from VfB Stuttgart.
34
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Chris Führich from VfB Stuttgart took a right-footed shot from outside the box following a free kick.
33
Update Update
Foul committed by Nico Schlotterbeck of Borussia Dortmund.
33
Update Update
Deniz Undav of VfB Stuttgart won a free kick in an attacking position.
31
Update Update
Nico Schlotterbeck from Borussia Dortmund commits a foul.
31
Update Update
Deniz Undav of VfB Stuttgart won a free kick in an attacking position.
30
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Nikolas Nartey from VfB Stuttgart.
29
Update Update
Nikolas Nartey of VfB Stuttgart won a free kick in an attacking position.
29
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Carney Chukwuemeka of Borussia Dortmund receives a yellow card for a foul.
29
Update Update
Foul committed by Carney Chukwuemeka for Borussia Dortmund.
28
Attempt Attempt
Chris Führich's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Maximilian Mittelstädt.
27
Corner Corner
VfB Stuttgart wins a corner after Daniel Svensson concedes.
26
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Deniz Undav from VfB Stuttgart takes a right-footed shot from a difficult position on the right, which is very close to the goal.
22
Corner Corner
VfB Stuttgart wins a corner after Julian Ryerson concedes.
21
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Waldemar Anton of Borussia Dortmund heads the ball from a difficult position on the right, but Alexander Nübel of VfB Stuttgart makes a save in the top left corner. The assist comes from Julian Ryerson's cross.
20
Update Update
Fouled by Atakan Karazor of VfB Stuttgart.
20
Update Update
Carney Chukwuemeka from Borussia Dortmund won a free kick on the left wing.
19
Corner Corner
Angelo Stiller of VfB Stuttgart attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but Gregor Kobel of Borussia Dortmund makes a save in the left corner.
19
Attempt Attempt
Chris Führich's shot for VfB Stuttgart from the center of the box is blocked. Deniz Undav provided the assist.
16
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Borussia Dortmund after being conceded by Maximilian Mittelstädt.
15
Update Update
Deniz Undav of VfB Stuttgart commits a foul.
15
Update Update
Nico Schlotterbeck from Borussia Dortmund won a free kick in defense.
14
Update Update
Carney Chukwuemeka of Borussia Dortmund won a free kick in defense.
14
Update Update
Foul committed by Atakan Karazor of VfB Stuttgart.
13
Attempt Attempt
Chris Führich from VfB Stuttgart makes an attacking attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved by Borussia Dortmund's goalkeeper Gregor Kobel, who is positioned in the center of the goal.
11
Update Update
Deniz Undav commits a handball for VfB Stuttgart.
9
Corner Corner
VfB Stuttgart wins a corner after Daniel Svensson concedes.
8
Attempt Attempt
Maximilian Mittelstädt's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Angelo Stiller.
5
Update Update
Foul committed by Jeff Chabot of VfB Stuttgart.
5
Update Update
Serhou Guirassy of Borussia Dortmund won a free kick in defense.
5
Update Update
Foul committed by Carney Chukwuemeka - Borussia Dortmund.
5
Update Update
Finn Jeltsch of VfB Stuttgart won a free kick in defense.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Borussia Dortmund exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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