VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
MHPArena Sat, 9 May - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart VFB
3 Winner 1
Bayer 04 Leverkusen B04
Full Time Sat, 9 May 1:30 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Deniz Undav - 58'
Maximilian Mittelstädt - 45+7' (P)
Ermedin Demirovic - 5'
Goal
|
Goal
Aleix García - 1'

CONTEXT

VfB Stuttgart delivered a commanding 3-1 victory over Bayer 04 Leverkusen, defying pre-match perceptions of Leverkusen as the stronger team. The home side took a 2-1 lead into halftime, showcasing early dominance with two goals to Leverkusen's one. Possession remained tightly contested throughout, with Stuttgart holding 49% compared to Leverkusen's 51%, reflecting a balanced battle in midfield. Stuttgart's clinical finishing proved decisive, as they added a third goal in the second half to seal the win without facing any red card disruptions. Leverkusen, despite their slight edge in possession, struggled to convert opportunities, allowing Stuttgart to control the narrative. This result highlights Stuttgart's resilience and tactical discipline against a formidable opponent, marking a statement performance in the Bundesliga clash. The minimal deviations from expected structures underscored a match played on merit, with no major interruptions altering the flow.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: VfB Stuttgart exhibited minimal structural deviation of 2.1% from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with overall expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment assessment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Match outcome fully aligned with pre-market evaluations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without available metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events significantly influenced the result.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion to match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

B. Dankert

Germany 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Neitzel

1st Assistant

Germany

S. Lupp

2nd Assistant

Germany

R. Hartmann

4th Official

Germany

League averages

Bundesliga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 16.84
Yellow cards / match 3.08
Red cards / match 0.19
Penalties / match 0.29
VfB Stuttgart S. Hoeneß
S. Hoeneß
VS
Bayer 04 Leverkusen K. Hjulmand
K. Hjulmand
1.74
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.73
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: 84 D
Werder Bremen Rank: 76 D
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 L
Hamburger SV Rank: 76 W
Borussia Dortmund Rank: 90 L
FC Augsburg Rank: 79 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
RB Leipzig Rank: 87 W
FC Köln Rank: 75 W
FC Augsburg Rank: 75 L
Borussia Dortmund Rank: 90 W
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: 75 W
Heidenheim Rank: 73 D
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 9 - 22
22

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home VfB Stuttgart
97.86%
Draw
1.92%
Away Bayer 04 Leverkusen
0.22%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
86.76
89.36
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
VfB Stuttgart
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Power Score
86.76
89.36
League Position
4
6
Global Rank
26
14

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
VfB Stuttgart — Opponent-weighted form score
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) VfB Stuttgart Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

VfB Stuttgart

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

VfB Stuttgart ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
46.63
15.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
15.00
46.63
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
VfB Stuttgart +2.85 Efficiency Index
vs
Bayer 04 Leverkusen -2.85 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
VfB Stuttgart
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

VfB Stuttgart ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Created Set-piece attacking threat
VfB Stuttgart Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
VfB Stuttgart Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
VfB Stuttgart
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
VfB Stuttgart
vs
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
VfB Stuttgart Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
VfB Stuttgart 0.35
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
VfB Stuttgart Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
VfB Stuttgart 0.03
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0.05
VfB Stuttgart
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • VFB had peak pressure around 62'.
  • VFB started the game with stronger pressure.
VFB Pressure B04 Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: VFB reached the top pressure at 62' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 37 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

VfB Stuttgart VFB Home
37 matches
Bayer 04 Leverkusen B04 Away
Match Record
6
Wins
22
9
Draws
9
22
Losses
6
Goals
45
Goals Scored
78
78
Goals Conceded
45
-33
Goal Difference
+33

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T00:02:11+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
A. Nübel
Germany
33 A. Nübel
R. Hendriks
Netherlands
3 R. Hendriks
J. Chabot
Germany
24 J. Chabot
M. Mittelstädt
Substitution
Germany
7 M. Mittelstädt
J. Leweling
Substitution
Germany
18 J. Leweling
J. Andrés Baixauli
Spain
30 J. Andrés Baixauli
A. Stiller
Germany
6 A. Stiller
C. Führich
Substitution
Germany
10 C. Führich
N. Nartey
Substitution
Denmark
28 N. Nartey
E. Demirović
Bosnia and Herzegovina
9 E. Demirović
D. Undav
Substitution
Germany
26 D. Undav
Pitch
M. Flekken
Netherlands
1 M. Flekken
E. Tapsoba
Burkina Faso
12 E. Tapsoba
R. Andrich
Germany
8 R. Andrich
J. Quansah
Substitution
England
4 J. Quansah
A. Grimaldo García
Spain
20 A. Grimaldo García
E. Palacios
Argentina
25 E. Palacios
A. García Serrano
Substitution
Spain
24 A. García Serrano
M. Amare Culbreath
Substitution
Germany
42 M. Amare Culbreath
I. Maza
Algeria
30 I. Maza
P. Schick
Czech Republic
14 P. Schick
C. Kofane
Substitution
35 C. Kofane

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
MHPArena
Capacity :
60449
Attendance :
60000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Jan Clemens Neitzel
Stefan Lupp
Robert Hartmann
Bastian Dankert

Statistics

Possession
VFB
52%
B04
48%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
5 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 0
57 Dangerous attacks 33
49 Possession 51
7 Corners 6
7 Free kicks 13
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 29
6 Successful Dribbles 2
9 Throwins 19
17 Successful Headers 11
2 Assists 1
14 Dribble Attempts 7
10 Goal Kicks 10
11 Goal Attempts 7
56 Ball Safe 66
2 Injuries 1
1 Penalties 0
5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

86 Attacks 49
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

25 Successful Long Passes 23
321 Successful Passes 324
43 Long Passes 62
383 Passes 401
15 Key Passes 6
84 Successful Passes Percentage 81
58 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37

Defensive

11 Tackles 14
4 Saves 5
7 Interceptions 4
41 Duels Won 39

Build-up

21 Total Crosses 19
7 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

13 Fouls 8
3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Bastian Dankert

Starting XI ▼

33
Alexander Nübel
Alexander Nübel Goalkeeper
3
Ramon Hendriks
Ramon Hendriks Defender
7
Maximilian Mittelstädt
Maximilian Mittelstädt Defender
14
Luca Jaquez
Luca Jaquez
Defender78'
24
Jeff Chabot
Jeff Chabot Defender
6
Angelo Stiller
Angelo Stiller Midfielder
10
Chris Führich
Chris Führich Midfielder
22
Lorenz Assignon
Lorenz Assignon
Defender87'
18
Jamie Leweling
Jamie Leweling Midfielder
4
Josha Vagnoman
Josha Vagnoman
Defender87'
30
Chema Andrés
Chema Andrés Midfielder
9
Ermedin Demirovic
Ermedin Demirovic Attacker
26
Deniz Undav
Deniz Undav Attacker
8
Tiago Tomás
Tiago Tomás
Attacker68'
28
Nikolas Nartey
Nikolas Nartey Attacker
11
Bilal El Khannouss
Bilal El Khannouss
Midfielder78'
Referee : Bastian Dankert

Starting XI ▼

1
Mark Flekken
Mark Flekken Goalkeeper
4
Jarell Quansah
Jarell Quansah Defender
17
Eliesse Ben Seghir
Eliesse Ben Seghir
Attacker86'
8
Robert Andrich
Robert Andrich Defender
12
Edmond Tapsoba
Edmond Tapsoba Defender
20
Alejandro Grimaldo
Alejandro Grimaldo Midfielder
24
Aleix García
Aleix García Midfielder
10
Malik Tillman
Malik Tillman
Midfielder65'
25
Exequiel Palacios
Exequiel Palacios Midfielder
42
Montrell Culbreath
Montrell Culbreath Midfielder
13
Arthur
Arthur
Defender65'
14
Patrik Schick
Patrik Schick Attacker
30
Ibrahim Maza
Ibrahim Maza Attacker
35
Christian Kofane
Christian Kofane Attacker
19
Ernest Poku
Ernest Poku
Attacker78'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Tiago Tomás
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
90+7'
90+7'
Event
Exequiel Palacios
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Josha Vagnoman → Jamie Leweling
9th Substitution
87'
Event
Lorenz Assignon → Chris Führich
8th Substitution
87'
86'
Event
Eliesse Ben Seghir → Jarell Quansah 
7th Substitution
Event
Chris Führich
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
80'
Event
Bilal El Khannouss → Nikolas Nartey
5th Substitution
78'
Event
Luca Jaquez → Maximilian Mittelstädt
4th Substitution
78'
78'
Event
Ernest Poku → Christian Kofane
6th Substitution
Event
Tiago Tomás → Deniz Undav
3rd Substitution
68'
65'
Event
Arthur → Montrell Culbreath
1st Substitution
65'
Event
Malik Tillman → Aleix García
2nd Substitution
Event
Deniz Undav
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
58'
1ST-HALF
Event
Maximilian Mittelstädt
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
45+7'
Event
Ermedin Demirovic
Penalty awarded
45+4'
Event
Ermedin Demirovic
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
5'
1'
Event
Aleix García
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Exequiel Palacios receives a yellow card.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tiago Tomas receives a yellow card.
89
Attempt Attempt
Alex Grimaldo takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
87
Update Update
Lorenz Assignon replaces Chris Fuhrich.
87
Update Update
Josha Vagnoman replaces Jamie Leweling.
86
Update Update
Eliesse Ben Seghir comes on for Jarell Quansah.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Chris Fuhrich receives a yellow card.
78
Update Update
Bilal El Khannouss replaces Nikolas Nartey.
78
Update Update
Ernest Poku comes on for Christian Michel Kofane.
78
Update Update
Luca Jaquez comes on for Maximilian Mittelstadt.
70
Attempt Attempt
Christian Michel Kofane's header is saved.
68
Update Update
Tiago Tomas comes on for Deniz Undav.
65
Update Update
Malik Tillman is on, and Aleix Garcia Serrano is off.
65
Update Update
Arthur Augusto de Matos Soares is on, and Montrell Culbreath is off.
63
Attempt Attempt
Jamie Leweling takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
63
Attempt Attempt
Chris Fuhrich takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
58
Attempt Attempt
Deniz Undav takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
58
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Deniz Undav scores to make it 3-1, assisted by Jamie Leweling.
56
Attempt Attempt
Julian Chabot's header is saved.
54
Attempt Attempt
Maximilian Mittelstadt takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
46
Attempt Attempt
Deniz Undav takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Maximilian Mittelstadt scores with a left-footed shot.
45
Update Update
VAR decision confirms a penalty awarded to Ermedin Demirovic.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Maximilian Mittelstadt scores, making it 2-1.
45
Attempt Attempt
Ermedin Demirovic takes a shot with his head but misses.
44
Attempt Attempt
Deniz Undav takes a right-footed shot but misses.
43
Attempt Attempt
Ermedin Demirovic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
40
Attempt Attempt
Deniz Undav takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
31
Attempt Attempt
Ermedin Demirovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
31
Update Update
Christian Michel Kofane attempts a header but misses the target.
27
Attempt Attempt
Ermedin Demirovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
25
Attempt Attempt
Deniz Undav takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
24
Attempt Attempt
Ermedin Demirovic takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
22
Attempt Attempt
Montrell Culbreath's header is saved.
18
Attempt Attempt
Deniz Undav takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
11
Attempt Attempt
Deniz Undav takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
9
Attempt Attempt
Patrik Schick takes a right-footed shot but misses.
7
Attempt Attempt
Maximilian Mittelstadt takes a left-footed shot but misses.
5
Attempt Attempt
Ermedin Demirovic takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
5
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ermedin Demirovic scores to make it 1-1, assisted by Nikolas Nartey.
3
Attempt Attempt
Deniz Undav takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
1
Attempt Attempt
Aleix Garcia Serrano scores with a left-footed shot.
1
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Aleix Garcia Serrano scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Christian Michel Kofane.

CONCLUSION

VfB Stuttgart's 3-1 triumph over Bayer 04 Leverkusen stands as a testament to their home fortitude, overturning the narrative of Leverkusen as the superior force. Leading 2-1 at halftime, Stuttgart maintained composure amid even possession splits, converting chances with precision while Leverkusen faltered. This outcome, marked by minimal deviations and full market alignment, reinforces Stuttgart's credentials in the title race. Without red cards or disruptive events, the victory reflects pure execution and strategic poise, propelling Stuttgart up the standings and exposing Leverkusen's vulnerabilities on the road.

VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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