Venezia vs Palermo Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Pierluigi Penzo Fri, 8 May - 6:30 PM
Serie B
Venezia VEN
2 Winner 0
Palermo PAL
Full Time Fri, 8 May 6:30 PM
Round 38 Regular Season
Mattia Compagnon - 90+4'
Issa Doumbia - 46'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Venezia claimed a convincing 2-0 home victory against Palermo, breaking the deadlock after a goalless first half where both teams traded possession tentatively. The hosts dominated with 62% overall possession, ramping up intensity post-interval to create and convert superior chances while Palermo managed only 38% control and few threats. Labeled the stronger side beforehand, Palermo faltered against Venezia's organized press and clinical finishing. This outcome reflected a significant 37.4% structural deviation favoring Venezia, yet stayed true to pre-match market leanings that heavily backed the home win. Without red cards or tactical overhauls, Venezia's sustained pressure and efficiency secured three points in a controlled affair.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Venezia's 2-0 win marked a significant 37.4% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiencies for both teams remained in line with pre-match evaluations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment assessment unavailable due to missing expected goals data.
  • Market alignment: Final result fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be measured without recorded data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or pivotal events altered the game's course.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Zanotti

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

V. Teghille

4th Official

Italy

M. Passeri

1st Assistant

Italy

A. Bianchini

2nd Assistant

Italy

League averages

Serie B Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 27.27
Yellow cards / match 4.04
Red cards / match 0.31
Penalties / match 0.29
Venezia G. Stroppa
G. Stroppa
VS
Palermo F. Inzaghi
F. Inzaghi
2.42
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.04
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Spezia Rank: 51 D
Empoli Rank: 54 W
Bari 1908 Rank: 49 W
Virtus Entella Rank: 49 D
Juve Stabia Rank: 56 W
Monza Rank: 66 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Catanzaro Rank: 61 W
Reggiana Rank: 47 D
Cesena Rank: 52 W
Frosinone Rank: 69 D
Avellino Rank: 54 W
Calcio Padova Rank: 51 W
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 5 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Venezia
62.57%
Draw
20.72%
Away Palermo
16.71%

Movement

Changes since opening
Venezia
-33.04%
Draw
+16.52%
Palermo
+16.52%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.53
64.44
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Venezia
Palermo
Power Score
63.53
64.44
League Position
1
4
Global Rank
192
349

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Venezia — Opponent-weighted form score
Palermo — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Venezia Palermo

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Venezia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Palermo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Venezia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Palermo
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
38.79
38.03
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
38.03
38.79
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Venezia +0.07 Efficiency Index
vs
Palermo -0.07 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Venezia
Palermo
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Venezia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Palermo
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Venezia Palermo
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Venezia Palermo
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Venezia
Palermo
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Venezia
vs
Palermo
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Venezia Palermo
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Venezia 0.34
Palermo 0.45
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Venezia Palermo
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Venezia 0.00
Palermo 0.03
Venezia
Palermo
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • VEN had peak pressure around 67'.
  • VEN started the game with stronger pressure.
VEN Pressure PAL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: VEN reached the top pressure at 67' (83.52).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Venezia VEN Home
13 matches
Palermo PAL Away
Match Record
6
Wins
2
5
Draws
5
2
Losses
6
Goals
17
Goals Scored
10
10
Goals Conceded
17
+7
Goal Difference
-7

Data last updated: 2026-05-09T00:02:03+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
F. Stankovic
Serbia
1 F. Stankovic
J. Schingtienne
Belgium
3 J. Schingtienne
M. Svoboda
Austria
30 M. Svoboda
B. Franjić
Substitution
Croatia
4 B. Franjić
A. Hainaut
France
18 A. Hainaut
E. Pérez Muñoz
Substitution
Spain
71 E. Pérez Muñoz
G. Busio
United States
6 G. Busio
I. Doumbia
Substitution
Italy
8 I. Doumbia
R. Haps
Suriname
5 R. Haps
J. Zamora
Substitution
Ecuador
10 J. Zamora
L. Lauberbach
Substitution
Germany
29 L. Lauberbach
Pitch
J. Joronen
Finland
66 J. Joronen
P. Ceccaroni
Italy
32 P. Ceccaroni
P. Peda
Substitution
Poland
29 P. Peda
B. Bereszyński
Poland
19 B. Bereszyński
T. Augello
Italy
3 T. Augello
A. Blin
France
28 A. Blin
J. Segre
Italy
8 J. Segre
N. Pierozzi
Substitution
Italy
27 N. Pierozzi
A. Vasic
Substitution
Serbia
14 A. Vasic
A. Palumbo
Substitution
Italy
5 A. Palumbo
J. Le Douaron
Substitution
France
21 J. Le Douaron

General Information

Date & Time :
May 08, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Pierluigi Penzo
Capacity :
11150
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Andrea Zanotti
Vittorio Emanuele Teghille
Matteo Passeri
Andrea Bianchini

Statistics

Possession
VEN
59%
PAL
41%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
4 Big Chances Created 2
9 Shots 2
61 Dangerous attacks 29
62 Possession 38
6 Corners 2
13 Free kicks 15
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
15 Dribble Attempts 8
13 Throwins 15
8 Goal Kicks 5
8 Successful Dribbles 4
16 Goal Attempts 9
80 Ball Safe 68
4 Hit Woodwork 2
5 Substitutions 5
2 Assists 0
1 Injuries 2

Attacking

91 Attacks 82
4 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

417 Successful Passes 231
499 Passes 307
52 Long Passes 51
84 Successful Passes Percentage 75
25 Successful Long Passes 18
14 Key Passes 8
48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35

Defensive

4 Interceptions 10
2 Saves 7
14 Tackles 17
52 Duels Won 48

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 9
3 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

4 Offsides 4
15 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Andrea Zanotti

Starting XI ▼

1
Filip Stanković
Filip Stanković Goalkeeper
3
Joël Schingtienne
Joël Schingtienne Defender
4
Bartol Franjic
Bartol Franjic Defender
48
Ahmed Franck Sidibé
Ahmed Franck Sidibé
Defender35'
30
Michael Svoboda
Michael Svoboda Defender
5
Ridgeciano Haps
Ridgeciano Haps Midfielder
6
Gianluca Busio
Gianluca Busio Midfielder
8
Issa Doumbia
Issa Doumbia Midfielder
24
Nunzio Lella
Nunzio Lella
Midfielder90'
18
Antoine Hainaut
Antoine Hainaut Midfielder
71
Kike Pérez
Kike Pérez Midfielder
32
Alfred Duncan
Alfred Duncan
Midfielder90+1'
10
John Yeboah
John Yeboah Attacker
21
Mattia Compagnon
Mattia Compagnon
Midfielder76'
29
Lion Lauberbach
Lion Lauberbach Attacker
80
Antonio Casas
Antonio Casas
Attacker76'
Referee : Andrea Zanotti

Starting XI ▼

66
Jesse Joronen
Jesse Joronen Goalkeeper
19
Bartosz Bereszyński
Bartosz Bereszyński Defender
29
Patryk Peda
Patryk Peda Defender
72
Davide Veroli
Davide Veroli
Defender46'
32
Pietro Ceccaroni
Pietro Ceccaroni Defender
3
Tommaso Augello
Tommaso Augello Midfielder
8
Jacopo Segre
Jacopo Segre Midfielder
27
Niccolò Pierozzi
Niccolò Pierozzi Midfielder
18
Rui Modesto
Rui Modesto
Midfielder72'
28
Alexis Blin
Alexis Blin Midfielder
5
Antonio Palumbo
Antonio Palumbo Attacker
6
Claudio Gomes
Claudio Gomes
Midfielder61'
14
Aljosa Vasic
Aljosa Vasic Attacker
7
Dennis Johnsen
Dennis Johnsen
Attacker51'
21
Jérémy Le Douaron
Jérémy Le Douaron Attacker
20
Joel Pohjanpalo
Joel Pohjanpalo
Attacker60'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Mattia Compagnon
4th Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
Mattia Compagnon
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
90+4'
Event
Alfred Duncan → Kike Pérez
10th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Nunzio Lella → Issa Doumbia
9th Substitution
90'
Event
Antonio Casas → Lion Lauberbach
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Mattia Compagnon → John Yeboah
8th Substitution
76'
Event
Issa Doumbia
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
74'
72'
Event
Rui Modesto → Niccolò Pierozzi
6th Substitution
61'
Event
Claudio Gomes → Antonio Palumbo
5th Substitution
60'
Event
Joel Pohjanpalo → Jérémy Le Douaron
4th Substitution
51'
Event
Dennis Johnsen → Aljosa Vasic
3rd Substitution
Event
Issa Doumbia
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
46'
46'
Event
Davide Veroli → Patryk Peda
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Ahmed Franck Sidibé → Bartol Franjic
1st Substitution
35'
31'
Event
Patryk Peda
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
7'
Event
Bartosz Bereszyński
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Substitution Substitution
Joseph Alfred Duncan is substituted off for Enrique Perez Munoz.
90
Update Update
Nunzio Lella replaces Issa Doumbia.
90
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal! Mattia Compagnon takes a right-footed shot.
89
Attempt Attempt
Claudio Gome takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
89
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Augello takes a left-footed shot but misses.
88
Attempt Attempt
Gianluca Busio takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
84
Attempt Attempt
Mattia Compagnon takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
84
Attempt Attempt
Mattia Compagnon takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
83
Attempt Attempt
Pietro Ceccaroni attempts a header but misses the shot.
80
Attempt Attempt
Issa Doumbia takes a right-footed shot but misses.
79
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Manuel Casas Marin takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
76
Update Update
Antonio Manuel Casas Marin comes on for Lion Lauberbach.
76
Update Update
Mattia Compagnon comes on for John Yeboah Zamora.
75
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Augello takes a left-footed shot but misses.
74
Attempt Attempt
Bartosz Bereszynski takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
74
Attempt Attempt
Jacopo Segre takes a shot with his right foot, but it is blocked.
72
Update Update
Rui Modesto is on, and Niccolo Pierozzi is off.
62
Attempt Attempt
Enrique Perez Munoz attempts a header, but it's saved.
61
Update Update
Claudio Gome replaces Antonio Palumbo.
60
Update Update
Joel Pohjanpalo replaces Jeremy Le Douaron.
59
Attempt Attempt
Enrique Perez Munoz takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
59
Attempt Attempt
Ridgeciano Haps takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
56
Attempt Attempt
Enrique Perez Munoz takes a left-footed shot but misses.
54
Attempt Attempt
Lion Lauberbach takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
54
Attempt Attempt
Issa Doumbia takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
53
Attempt Attempt
Lion Lauberbach takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
51
Update Update
Dennis Johnsen comes on for Aljosa Vasic.
49
Attempt Attempt
Enrique Perez Munoz takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
46
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Issa Doumbia with his right foot results in a goal.
46
Update Update
Davide Veroli is on, and Patryk Peda is off.
44
Attempt Attempt
Jeremy Le Douaron attempts a header but misses the shot.
42
Attempt Attempt
John Yeboah Zamora takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
37
Attempt Attempt
Ridgeciano Haps takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
35
Update Update
Ahmed Sidibe is on, and Bartol Franjic is off.
33
Attempt Attempt
Jeremy Le Douaron takes a left-footed shot but misses.
29
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Palumbo's left-footed shot is saved.
29
Attempt Attempt
Gianluca Busio takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
23
Attempt Attempt
Bartosz Bereszynski takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
22
Attempt Attempt
Jeremy Le Douaron's left-footed shot is blocked.
13
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Augello's left-footed shot is blocked.
13
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Palumbo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
8
Attempt Attempt
Gianluca Busio takes a right-footed shot but misses.
7
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Bartosz Bereszynski receives a yellow card.
2
Attempt Attempt
John Yeboah Zamora takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
1
Attempt Attempt
Joel Schingtienne takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Venezia's 2-0 triumph underscores their home strength, turning possession dominance into a clean-sheet win despite Palermo's reputed edge. The even halftime score gave way to second-half mastery, with no disruptions allowing tactical discipline to shine. This significant deviation highlights Venezia's ability to outperform benchmarks, aligning with anticipated market views. Palermo's possession deficit exposed vulnerabilities, preventing any comeback. Overall, the match reaffirms Venezia's rising form, setting a positive tone for upcoming fixtures while Palermo must address inefficiency.

Venezia vs Palermo preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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