Västerås SK vs Elfsborg Prediction, Preview and Stats

Sweden flag 2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Iver Arena (Västerås) Sat, 11 Apr - 1:00 PM
Allsvenskan
Västerås SK Västerås SK
2 – 2
Elfsborg ELF
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 1:00 PM
Round 2 Regular Season
Mikkel Ladefoged - 81', 74'
Goal
|
Goal
A. Sigurpálsson - 90+2'
Niklas Hult - 49'

CONTEXT

The match between Västerås SK and Elfsborg is now finished, ending in a 2-2 draw. The teams were level at 0-0 during halftime, and the second half produced goals from both sides to leave the outcome shared. Pre-match forecasts positioned Elfsborg as narrow favorites, yet the result represented a significant deviation that favored Västerås SK. The home side, identified as the stronger team overall, secured a point against expectations, producing a performance that exceeded projections by a wide margin. With no red cards shown and no major disciplinary incidents, the contest remained focused on open play throughout. Possession was almost identical, finishing at 51 percent for Västerås SK and 49 percent for Elfsborg. No expected goals data was available, preventing a full assessment of alignment with underlying metrics, though the efficiency shift stayed in line with general patterns. The final score did not align with the pre-match projection, delivering a result that highlighted Västerås SK’s ability to rise to the occasion despite the even share of territory.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Västerås SK showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

T. Olofsson

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Wilde

1st Assistant

A. Gergess

2nd Assistant

A. Ladebäck

4th Official

Västerås SK A. Rubin
A. Rubin
VS
Elfsborg B. Hamberg
B. Hamberg
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.2
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kalmar Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.2 i
Last 6 Opponents
IFK Göteborg Rank: W
Hammarby Rank: L
AIK Rank: L
Sirius Rank: L
Öster Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Västerås SK
32.89%
Draw
29.33%
Away Elfsborg
37.78%

Movement

Changes since opening
Västerås SK
+27.33%
Draw
-60.62%
Elfsborg
+33.28%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
47.41
15.36
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Västerås SK
Elfsborg
Power Score
47.41
15.36
League Position
4
1
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Västerås SK — Opponent-weighted form score
Elfsborg — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Västerås SK Elfsborg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Västerås SK

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Elfsborg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Västerås SK ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Elfsborg
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.43
20.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.00
23.43
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Västerås SK +0.34 Efficiency Index
vs
Elfsborg -0.34 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Västerås SK
Elfsborg
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Västerås SK ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Elfsborg
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Västerås SK Elfsborg
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Västerås SK Elfsborg
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Västerås SK
Elfsborg
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Västerås SK
vs
Elfsborg
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Västerås SK Elfsborg
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Västerås SK 0.15
Elfsborg 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Västerås SK Elfsborg
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Västerås SK 0.06
Elfsborg 0.03
Västerås SK
Elfsborg
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Västerås SK had peak pressure around 80'.
  • Västerås SK started the game with stronger pressure.
Västerås SK Pressure ELF Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Västerås SK reached the top pressure at 80' (84.77).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Västerås SK Västerås SK Home
2 matches
Elfsborg ELF Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
0
-2
Goal Difference
+2

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:04:55+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
E. Jäger
Sweden
34 E. Jäger
H. Magnusson
Sweden
2 H. Magnusson
F. Nsabiyumva
Burundi
18 F. Nsabiyumva
V. Wernersson
Substitution
Sweden
21 V. Wernersson
S. Gefvert
Sweden
11 S. Gefvert
I. Lushaku
Substitution
Kosovo
14 I. Lushaku
M. Diagne
Senegal
8 M. Diagne
M. Baggesen
Substitution
Denmark
3 M. Baggesen
A. Sountonoma Taonsa
Ivory Coast
17 A. Sountonoma Taonsa
M. Riis Ladefoged
Substitution
Denmark
9 M. Riis Ladefoged
A. Boudah
Sweden
7 A. Boudah
Pitch
I. Pettersson
Sweden
31 I. Pettersson
T. Poppler-Isherwood
Sweden
4 T. Poppler-Isherwood
R. Wikström
Sweden
6 R. Wikström
R. Mohammed
2 R. Mohammed
N. Hult
Substitution
Sweden
23 N. Hult
S. Olsson
Sweden
10 S. Olsson
J. Magnússon
Substitution
Iceland
18 J. Magnússon
S. Hedlund
Sweden
15 S. Hedlund
A. Zeneli
Substitution
Kosovo
9 A. Zeneli
T. Silverholt
Substitution
Sweden
11 T. Silverholt
J. Beck
Substitution
Denmark
19 J. Beck

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 11, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 2 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Iver Arena (Västerås)
Capacity :
7044
Pitch Surface :
N/A
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Tess Olofsson
Robin Wilde
Abdelmasih Gergess
Adam Ladebäck

Statistics

Possession
Västerås SK
52%
ELF
48%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
5 Shots 3
59 Dangerous attacks 36
51 Possession 49
8 Corners 3
13 Free kicks 9
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

6 Successful Dribbles 4
18 Throwins 24
5 Goal Kicks 8
0 Hit Woodwork 1
17 Dribble Attempts 14
35 Successful Dribbles Percentage 29
4 Substitutions 5
2 Assists 2
5 Goal Attempts 3
46 Ball Safe 40

Attacking

97 Attacks 97

Possession

83 Successful Passes Percentage 79
468 Passes 452
15 Successful Long Passes 18
33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 28
387 Successful Passes 359
45 Long Passes 64
7 Key Passes 4

Defensive

22 Tackles 16
11 Interceptions 16
1 Saves 1

Build-up

27 Total Crosses 15
6 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

6 Fouls 12
3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Tess Olofsson

Starting XI ▼

34
Elis Jäger
Elis Jäger Goalkeeper
2
Herman Magnusson
Herman Magnusson Defender
18
Frédéric Nsabiyumva
Frédéric Nsabiyumva Defender
21
Victor Wernersson
Victor Wernersson Defender
4
Philip Bonde
Philip Bonde
Defender84'
3
Marcus Baggesen
Marcus Baggesen Midfielder
15
Jonathan Karlsson
Jonathan Karlsson
Defender85'
8
Mamadou Diagne
Mamadou Diagne Midfielder
11
Simon Gefvert
Simon Gefvert Midfielder
14
I. Lushaku
I. Lushaku Midfielder
30
Mattias Hellisdal
Mattias Hellisdal
Midfielder90+5'
7
Abdelrahman Boudah
Abdelrahman Boudah Attacker
9
Mikkel Ladefoged
Mikkel Ladefoged Attacker
2
5
Karl Gunnarsson
Karl Gunnarsson
Midfielder85'
17
Axel Sountonoma Taonsa
Axel Sountonoma Taonsa Attacker
Referee : Tess Olofsson

Starting XI ▼

31
Isak Pettersson
Isak Pettersson Goalkeeper
2
Rufai Mohammed
Rufai Mohammed Defender
4
Thomas Isherwood
Thomas Isherwood Defender
6
R. Wikström
R. Wikström Defender
10
S. Olsson
S. Olsson Midfielder
15
Simon Hedlund
Simon Hedlund Midfielder
18
J. Magnússon
J. Magnússon Midfielder
25
A. Sigurpálsson
A. Sigurpálsson
Attacker86'
23
Niklas Hult
Niklas Hult Midfielder
27
O. Okeke
O. Okeke
Midfielder66'
9
Arbër Zeneli
Arbër Zeneli Attacker
21
Leo Östman
Leo Östman
Attacker74'
11
T. Silverholt
T. Silverholt Attacker
17
Per Frick
Per Frick
Attacker86'
19
Julius Beck
Julius Beck Attacker
16
A. Hellemaa
A. Hellemaa
Midfielder74'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+7'
Event
R. Wikström
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Mattias Hellisdal → I. Lushaku
9th Substitution
90+5'
90+2'
Event
A. Sigurpálsson
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
86'
Event
Per Frick → T. Silverholt
7th Substitution
86'
Event
A. Sigurpálsson → J. Magnússon
8th Substitution
Event
Jonathan Karlsson → Marcus Baggesen
6th Substitution
85'
Event
Karl Gunnarsson → Mikkel Ladefoged
5th Substitution
85'
Event
Philip Bonde → Victor Wernersson
4th Substitution
84'
Event
Mikkel Ladefoged
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
81'
Event
Mikkel Ladefoged
Header / 2nd Goal
74'
74'
Event
A. Hellemaa → Julius Beck
2nd Substitution
74'
Event
Leo Östman → Arbër Zeneli
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
O. Okeke → Niklas Hult
1st Substitution
49'
Event
Niklas Hult
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
1ST-HALF
22'
Event
S. Olsson
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Västerås SK exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Västerås SK vs Elfsborg preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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