Varaždin vs Vukovar Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia

Stadion Anđelko Herjavec Fri, 13 Mar - 5:00 PM

1. HNL

Varaždin Varaždin

Vukovar Vukovar

Full Time Fri, 13 Mar 5:00 PM

Aleksa Latkovic - 75'

Luka Skaricic - 42'

CONTEXT

The match has finished with Varaždin securing a 1-0 full-time victory over Vukovar. The home side established their lead early, holding a 1-0 advantage at half-time, and successfully defended that narrow margin through to the final whistle. This outcome was fully aligned with the pre-match market, which correctly favored Varaždin with a 46.5% implied win probability compared to Vukovar's 25.8% chance. Despite being the stronger team and claiming the win, Varaždin actually saw slightly less of the ball, managing 46% possession while Vukovar controlled the remaining 54%. Expected goals (xG) data was completely unavailable for this fixture, meaning it cannot be analytically determined whether the final scoreline was consistent with the underlying chances created by either side. Additionally, the match was a disciplined affair with no red cards issued to alter the tactical balance. The final result produced a significant deviation level of 53.5% favoring Varaždin. Overall, the efficiency shift remained exactly in line with baseline expectations. By converting their limited possession into the game's only goal, Varaždin efficiently validated the pre-match forecasts and effectively shut out the visiting side.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Varaždin showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

I. Vukančić

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

Bruno Geller

2nd Assistant

Oliver Romić

4th Official

M. Tomas

1st Assistant

N. Šafarić

S. Čabraja

1.4

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

0.9

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

1 - 0 - 1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Varaždin

46.46%

Draw

27.73%

Vukovar

25.82%

Team Power Ranking

63.96

47.86

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Varaždin

Vukovar

Power Score

63.96

47.86

League Position

Global Rank

338

607

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Varaždin — Opponent-weighted form score

Vukovar — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Varaždin Vukovar

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Varaždin

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Vukovar

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Varaždin ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Vukovar

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

54.35

24.81

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

24.81

54.35

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Varaždin +3.01 Efficiency Index

Vukovar -3.01 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Varaždin

Vukovar

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Varaždin ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Vukovar

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Varaždin Vukovar

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Varaždin Vukovar

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Varaždin

Vukovar

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Varaždin Varaždin Home

2 matches

Vukovar Vukovar Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-1

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-03-14T02:06:02+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

33 J. Silić

23 F. Maglica

14 (C) R. Punčec

4 L. Škaričić

20 G. Sikošek

8 T. Duvnjak

7 M. Vuk

10 A. Latković

22 L. Mamić

28 I. Canjuga

9 S. Jurić

22 D. Pintol

91 M. Tičinović

14 M. Živković

34 M. Tadić

16 K. Pavičić

13 V. Čaić

35 J. Gurlica

28 L. Banovec

50 J. Špoljarić

8 A. Bosec

21 (C) J. Puljić

General Information

Date & Time :

Mar 13, 2026, 05:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia

Stadium :

Stadion Anđelko Herjavec

Capacity :

10800

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Bruno Geller

Oliver Romić

Ivan Vukančić

Marjan Tomas

Statistics

Possession

Varaždin

49%

Vukovar

51%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0

4 Big Chances Created 1

5 Shots 6

60 Dangerous attacks 68

46 Possession 54

6 Corners 3

15 Free kicks 10

2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

12 Dribble Attempts 8

42 Successful Dribbles Percentage 13

26 Throwins 24

9 Goal Kicks 13

5 Successful Dribbles 1

1 Assists 0

5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

3 Big Chances Missed 1

114 Attacks 132

Possession

70 Successful Passes Percentage 76

334 Passes 394

42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 30

73 Long Passes 60

31 Successful Long Passes 18

234 Successful Passes 298

Defensive

14 Tackles 17

6 Interceptions 9

3 Saves 3

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 21

9 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

10 Fouls 14

2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Ivan Vukančić

Manager ▼

N. Šafarić Coach

Starting XI ▼

Josip Silic Goalkeeper

7.4

Luka Skaricic Defender

7.99

Roberto Puncec (C) Defender

6.72

Gregor Sikosek Defender

6.98

Frane Maglica Defender

7.23

Matej Vuk Midfielder

6.94

—

Matej Vuk

88'

Tomislav Duvnjak Midfielder

7.07

Aleksa Latkovic Midfielder

9.04

Petar Bockaj

Defender77'

6.8

Luka Mamic Midfielder

6.61

David Puclin

Midfielder88'

Ivan Canjuga Midfielder

6.91

Mario Marina

Midfielder77'

6.61

Stipe Juric Attacker

7.04

Iuri Tavares

Attacker62'

6.47

Substitutes ▼

Iuri Tavares

Attacker62'

6.47

Mario Marina

Midfielder77'

6.61

Petar Bockaj

Defender77'

6.8

—

Matej Vuk

88'

David Puclin

Midfielder88'

Bench ▼

Oliver Zelenika Goalkeeper

T. Novak Goalkeeper

Sven Lesjak Defender

Mario Mladenovski Defender

Novak Tepsic Defender

Antonio Borsic Defender

Luka Posinković Defender

Referee : Ivan Vukančić