Varaždin vs Slaven Koprivnica Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia

Stadion Anđelko Herjavec Sun, 12 Apr - 2:00 PM

1. HNL

Varaždin Varaždin

Slaven Koprivnica Slaven Koprivnica

Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 2:00 PM

Round 29 Regular Season

Ivan Mamut - 77' (P)

Iuri Tavares - 12'

Ljuban Crepulja - 39'

CONTEXT

The match between Varaždin and Slaven Koprivnica is finished, ending 2-1 to the home side after a 1-1 scoreline at halftime. Varaždin found the winner in the second half to secure all three points in what became a competitive encounter. This result represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, with Varaždin outperforming forecasts as the stronger team. Pre-match assessments had pointed to a closely balanced contest, yet the home side showed clear superiority to take the victory. Possession was shared almost equally throughout, finishing at 53 percent for Varaždin and 47 percent for Slaven Koprivnica. No red cards were issued to disrupt the flow, and the efficiency shift remained in line with expectations. The outcome aligned with the pre-match projection for Varaždin, confirming their edge despite the absence of expected goals data.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Varaždin showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

P. Pavlešić

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

Z. Lovrić

4th Official

I. Janić

1st Assistant

D. Kolarević

2nd Assistant

N. Šafarić

M. Gregurina

1.37

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.26

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

8 - 12 - 18

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Varaždin

38.74%

Draw

29.36%

Slaven Koprivnica

31.9%

Movement

Changes since opening

Varaždin

-57.37%

Draw

+25.66%

Slaven Koprivnica

+31.71%

Team Power Ranking

20.77

19.18

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Varaždin

Slaven Koprivnica

Power Score

20.77

19.18

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Varaždin — Opponent-weighted form score

Slaven Koprivnica — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Varaždin Slaven Koprivnica

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Varaždin

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Slaven Koprivnica

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Varaždin ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Slaven Koprivnica

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

32.36

35.74

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

35.74

32.36

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Varaždin -0.35 Efficiency Index

Slaven Koprivnica +0.35 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Varaždin

Slaven Koprivnica

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Varaždin ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Slaven Koprivnica

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Varaždin Slaven Koprivnica

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

1.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Varaždin Slaven Koprivnica

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 1.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Varaždin

Slaven Koprivnica

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Varaždin

Slaven Koprivnica

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Varaždin Slaven Koprivnica

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Varaždin Slaven Koprivnica

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Varaždin

Slaven Koprivnica

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

Varaždin had peak pressure around 1'.
Varaždin started the game with stronger pressure.

Varaždin Pressure Slaven Koprivnica Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: Varaždin reached the top pressure at 1' (87.31).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 38 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Varaždin Varaždin Home

38 matches

Slaven Koprivnica Slaven Koprivnica Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-18

Goal Difference

+18

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:05:53+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

1 O. Zelenika

23 F. Maglica

14 R. Punčec

4 L. Škaričić

25 A. Boršić

6 D. Puclin

7 M. Vuk

28 I. Canjuga

22 L. Mamić

38 Iuri Tavares

17 I. Mamut

31 O. Hadzikic

22 F. Jović

4 D. Kovačić

6 T. Božić

18 F. Krušelj

21 L. Crepulja

15 I. Ćubelić

27 A. Grgić

17 F. Mažar

11 J. Mitrović

7 M. Dabro

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 12, 2026, 02:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 29 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadion Anđelko Herjavec

Capacity :

10800

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Patrik Pavlešić

Zdenko Lovrić

Ivan Janić

Dario Kolarević

Statistics

Possession

Varaždin

54%

Slaven Koprivnica

46%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1

1 Big Chances Created 1

14 Shots 14

63 Dangerous attacks 56

53 Possession 47

3 Corners 5

17 Free kicks 12

2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

1 Penalties 0

1 Hit Woodwork 0

4 Goal Kicks 10

30 Throwins 25

50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45

22 Dribble Attempts 11

5 Substitutions 5

11 Successful Dribbles 5

1 Assists 0

Attacking

99 Attacks 105

0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

59 Long Passes 43

319 Successful Passes 268

389 Passes 339

42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 23

12 Key Passes 9

82 Successful Passes Percentage 79

25 Successful Long Passes 10

Defensive

5 Saves 4

10 Interceptions 9

11 Tackles 16

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 14

5 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

10 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Patrik Pavlešić

Manager ▼

N. Šafarić Coach

Starting XI ▼

Oliver Zelenika Goalkeeper

Luka Skaricic Defender

Roberto Puncec Defender

Frane Maglica Defender

Antonio Borsic Defender

Gregor Sikosek

Defender79'

David Puclin Midfielder

Silvio Ilinkovic

Midfielder79'

Matej Vuk Midfielder

Luka Mamic Midfielder

Tomislav Duvnjak

Midfielder64'

Ivan Canjuga Midfielder

Iuri Tavares Midfielder

Petar Bockaj

Defender64'

Ivan Mamut Attacker

Mario Mladenovski

Defender83'

Substitutes ▼

Petar Bockaj

Defender64'

Tomislav Duvnjak

Midfielder64'

Gregor Sikosek

Defender79'

Silvio Ilinkovic

Midfielder79'

Mario Mladenovski

Defender83'

Bench ▼

Josip Silic Goalkeeper

Sven Lesjak Defender

Novak Tepsic Defender

Luka Posinković Defender

Mateo Barac Defender

Mario Marina Midfielder

Paizinho Attacker

Referee : Patrik Pavlešić