Varaždin vs Lokomotiva Zagreb Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Anđelko Herjavec Sat, 9 May - 4:45 PM
1. HNL
Varaždin Varaždin
1 – 1
Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb
Full Time Sat, 9 May 4:45 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Matej Vuk - 6'
Goal
|
Goal
Leon Belcar - 50'

CONTEXT

Varaždin hosted Lokomotiva Zagreb in a competitive Croatian league encounter that concluded in a 1-1 draw. The home side struck first, leading 1-0 at halftime with a goal that set the tone early. Lokomotiva Zagreb, enjoying 59% possession compared to Varaždin's 41%, mounted a strong response in the second half to level the score. Despite being labeled the stronger team pre-match, Varaždin could not hold their advantage, resulting in a share of the points. No red cards disrupted play, and there were no notable second-half tactical adjustments. The outcome marked a significant structural deviation of 73%, favoring the unexpected draw over a home victory. Both teams displayed balanced efficiency, with possession not translating directly into dominance.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match resulted in a 73% significant deviation attributed to Varaždin.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency for both teams remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Market expectations did not align with the 1-1 draw.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable due to lack of data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the flow.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to the match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Strukan

Croatia 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

P. Krmar

2nd Assistant

Croatia

A. Terzić

4th Official

Croatia

Dujo Sarić

1st Assistant

Croatia

League averages

1. HNL Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.53
Yellow cards / match 3.23
Red cards / match 0.08
Penalties / match 0.34
Varaždin N. Šafarić
N. Šafarić
VS
Lokomotiva Zagreb N. Jelavić
N. Jelavić
1.48
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.2
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hajduk Split Rank: 72 L
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 80 L
Rijeka Rank: 70 W
Osijek Rank: 63 W
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 61 W
Gorica Rank: 62 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rijeka Rank: 70 L
Osijek Rank: 63 D
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 63 W
Gorica Rank: 61 W
Istra 1961 Rank: 63 W
Vukovar Rank: 56 D
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 11 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Varaždin
47.48%
Draw
27.02%
Away Lokomotiva Zagreb
25.5%

Movement

Changes since opening
Varaždin
+42.61%
Draw
-63.7%
Lokomotiva Zagreb
+21.09%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65.59
63.02
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Varaždin
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Power Score
65.59
63.02
League Position
4
5
Global Rank
314
395

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Varaždin — Opponent-weighted form score
Lokomotiva Zagreb — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Varaždin Lokomotiva Zagreb

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Varaždin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lokomotiva Zagreb

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Varaždin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lokomotiva Zagreb
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
14.02
12.03
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
12.03
14.02
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Varaždin +0.20 Efficiency Index
vs
Lokomotiva Zagreb -0.20 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Varaždin
Lokomotiva Zagreb
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Varaždin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lokomotiva Zagreb
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Varaždin Lokomotiva Zagreb
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Varaždin Lokomotiva Zagreb
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Varaždin
Lokomotiva Zagreb
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Varaždin
vs
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Varaždin Lokomotiva Zagreb
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Varaždin 0.05
Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.04
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Varaždin Lokomotiva Zagreb
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Varaždin 0.01
Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.02
Varaždin
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Varaždin had peak pressure around 69'.
  • Lokomotiva Zagreb started the game with stronger pressure.
Varaždin Pressure Lokomotiva Zagreb Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Varaždin reached the top pressure at 69' (85.29).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 29 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Varaždin Varaždin Home
29 matches
Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb Away
Match Record
6
Wins
12
11
Draws
11
12
Losses
6
Goals
24
Goals Scored
37
37
Goals Conceded
24
-13
Goal Difference
+13

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T00:04:28+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
J. Silić
Croatia
33 J. Silić
F. Maglica
Croatia
23 F. Maglica
R. Punčec
Croatia
14 R. Punčec
S. Lesjak
Croatia
2 S. Lesjak
A. Boršić
Croatia
25 A. Boršić
T. Duvnjak
Substitution
Croatia
8 T. Duvnjak
M. Marina
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
24 M. Marina
M. Vuk
Substitution
Croatia
7 M. Vuk
L. Mamić
Substitution
Croatia
22 L. Mamić
Iuri Tavares
Cape Verde
38 Iuri Tavares
A. Latković
Substitution
Montenegro
10 A. Latković
Pitch
L. Savatović
Croatia
32 L. Savatović
L. Dajčer
Croatia
16 L. Dajčer
T. Jukić
Germany
5 T. Jukić
D. Kolinger
Croatia
20 D. Kolinger
M. Vešović
Substitution
Montenegro
23 M. Vešović
P. Smiljanić
25 P. Smiljanić
M. Subotic
Croatia
10 M. Subotic
D. Vuković
Substitution
Montenegro
30 D. Vuković
J. Vasilj
Croatia
29 J. Vasilj
M. Šušak
Substitution
Croatia
11 M. Šušak
I. Abdallah Sabra
Substitution
Jordan
9 I. Abdallah Sabra

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 04:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Anđelko Herjavec
Capacity :
10800
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Patrik Krmar
Ante Terzić
Dujo Sarić
Duje Strukan

Statistics

Possession
Varaždin
41%
Lokomotiva Zagreb
59%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 2
55 Dangerous attacks 82
41 Possession 59
2 Corners 5
16 Free kicks 15
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

25 Throwins 35
0 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
4 Dribble Attempts 32
1 Assists 1
6 Goal Kicks 9
5 Substitutions 4
0 Successful Dribbles 12

Attacking

96 Attacks 133
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

72 Successful Passes Percentage 81
54 Long Passes 57
33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 53
18 Successful Long Passes 30
319 Passes 464
229 Successful Passes 378
3 Key Passes 3

Defensive

38 Tackles 12
64 Duels Won 54
8 Interceptions 12

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 17
2 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

15 Fouls 16
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Duje Strukan

Starting XI ▼

33
Josip Silic
Josip Silic Goalkeeper
2
Sven Lesjak
Sven Lesjak Defender
14
Roberto Puncec
Roberto Puncec Defender
23
Frane Maglica
Frane Maglica Defender
25
Antonio Borsic
Antonio Borsic Defender
7
Matej Vuk
Matej Vuk Midfielder
30
Luka Posinković
Luka Posinković
Defender89'
8
Tomislav Duvnjak
Tomislav Duvnjak Midfielder
6
David Puclin
David Puclin
Midfielder46'
22
Luka Mamic
Luka Mamic Midfielder
15
Silvio Ilinkovic
Silvio Ilinkovic
Midfielder69'
24
Mario Marina
Mario Marina Midfielder
28
Ivan Canjuga
Ivan Canjuga
Attacker61'
38
Iuri Tavares
Iuri Tavares Midfielder
10
Aleksa Latkovic
Aleksa Latkovic Attacker
16
Novak Tepsic
Novak Tepsic
Defender61'
Referee : Duje Strukan

Starting XI ▼

32
Luka Savatovic
Luka Savatovic Goalkeeper
5
Tino Jukic
Tino Jukic Defender
16
Luka Dajcer
Luka Dajcer Defender
20
Denis Kolinger
Denis Kolinger Defender
23
Marko Vesovic
Marko Vesovic Defender
14
Marcel Lorber
Marcel Lorber
Midfielder29'
10
Matija Subotic
Matija Subotic Midfielder
11
Mirko Susak
Mirko Susak Midfielder
28
Leon Belcar
Leon Belcar
Midfielder46'
25
Pavle Smiljanic
Pavle Smiljanic Midfielder
29
Jakov-Anton Vasilj
Jakov-Anton Vasilj Midfielder
30
Dušan Vuković
Dušan Vuković Midfielder
21
David Virgili
David Virgili
Attacker90+2'
9
Ibrahim Sabra
Ibrahim Sabra Attacker
15
Aleks Stojakovic
Aleks Stojakovic
Attacker65'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
David Virgili → Dušan Vuković
9th Substitution
Event
Luka Posinković → Matej Vuk
8th Substitution
89'
81'
Event
Denis Kolinger
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
79'
Event
Luka Dajcer
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Ivan Canjuga
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
77'
Event
Iuri Tavares
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
75'
Event
Silvio Ilinkovic → Luka Mamic
7th Substitution
69'
65'
Event
Aleks Stojakovic → Ibrahim Sabra
6th Substitution
Event
Novak Tepsic → Aleksa Latkovic
5th Substitution
61'
Event
Ivan Canjuga → Mario Marina
4th Substitution
61'
50'
Event
Leon Belcar
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
David Puclin → Tomislav Duvnjak
3rd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Leon Belcar → Mirko Susak
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Tomislav Duvnjak
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
42'
29'
Event
Marcel Lorber → Marko Vesovic
1st Substitution
Event
Matej Vuk
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
6'

Match Commentary

90
Substitution Substitution
David Virgili is substituted off for Dusan Vukovic.
89
Update Update
Luka Posinkovic comes on for Matej Vuk.
69
Attempt Attempt
Luka Dajcer takes a shot with his head but misses.
69
Update Update
Silvio Ilinkovic replaces Luka Mamic.
65
Attempt Attempt
Iuri Tavares takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
65
Update Update
Aleks Stojakovic is on, and Ibrahim Sabra is off.
61
Update Update
Novak Tepsic comes on for Aleksa Latkovic.
61
Update Update
Ivan Canjuga is on, and Mario Marina is off.
57
Attempt Attempt
Aleksa Latkovic attempts a header but misses the shot.
50
Attempt Attempt
Leon Belcar scores with a left-footed shot.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Leon Belcar comes on for Mirko Susak.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Leon Belcar comes on for Mirko Susak.
41
Attempt Attempt
Matija Subotic takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
29
Update Update
Marcel Lorber replaces Marko Vesovic.
6
Attempt Attempt
Matej Vuk scores with a left-footed shot.

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 draw between Varaždin and Lokomotiva Zagreb underscores the unpredictability of football, where Varaždin's early lead evaporated despite their stronger pre-match billing. Lokomotiva's possession edge yielded an equalizer but no more, highlighting defensive solidity from both sides. This result deviates significantly from structural norms, with efficiency holding steady amid balanced play. Without xG insights or disruptive events, the stalemate reflects tactical parity. Varaždin will rue missed opportunities to secure victory at home, while Lokomotiva gains a valuable point on the road, setting up intriguing prospects for future fixtures.

Varaždin vs Lokomotiva Zagreb preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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