Varaždin vs Istra 1961 Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Anđelko Herjavec Sat, 23 May - 2:00 PM
1. HNL
Varaždin Varaždin
2 Winner 0
Istra 1961 Istra 1961
Full Time Sat, 23 May 2:00 PM
Round 36 Regular Season
Luka Mamic - 38' (P), 14' (P)
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Varaždin secured a 2-0 win over Istra 1961 with the halftime score also standing at 2-0. The home side maintained their advantage despite recording only 41 percent possession against the visitors 59 percent. No red cards were shown to players from either team across the full duration. Varaždin entered as the stronger side and delivered the expected result with a minimal deviation of 2.1 percent from projections. Efficiency metrics stayed consistent without requiring any second half adjustments. The match proceeded without structural changes or notable interruptions. This outcome reflected steady adherence to pre-match patterns in a controlled contest.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Varaždin 2-0 Istra 1961. Varaždin showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match projections throughout the contest.
  • xG alignment: No xG data was recorded for either side in this fixture.
  • Market alignment: The final result matched market expectations without notable discrepancies.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals metrics were not provided for analysis in this match.
  • Event impact: The early goals in the first half shaped the overall match dynamics effectively.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards ensured no distortions from player dismissals occurred.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Čulina

Croatia 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

K. Šarić

1st Assistant

Croatia

M. Maloča

2nd Assistant

Croatia

A. Škobić

4th Official

Croatia

League averages

1. HNL Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 25.08
Yellow cards / match 3.43
Red cards / match 0.08
Penalties / match 0.38
Varaždin N. Šafarić
N. Šafarić
VS
Istra 1961 K. Režić
K. Režić
1.52
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.09
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vukovar Rank: 56 W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 63 D
Hajduk Split Rank: 72 L
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 82 L
Rijeka Rank: 72 W
Osijek Rank: 62 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rijeka Rank: 71 D
Osijek Rank: 63 W
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 62 W
Gorica Rank: 62 L
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 82 L
Vukovar Rank: 55 L
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 12 - 11
11

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Varaždin
97.86%
Draw
1.92%
Away Istra 1961
0.22%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
67.27
63.12
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Varaždin
Istra 1961
Power Score
67.27
63.12
League Position
3
6
Global Rank
275
392

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Varaždin — Opponent-weighted form score
Istra 1961 — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Varaždin Istra 1961

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Varaždin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Istra 1961

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Varaždin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Istra 1961
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.05
23.31
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.31
33.05
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Varaždin +0.97 Efficiency Index
vs
Istra 1961 -0.97 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Varaždin
Istra 1961
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Varaždin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Istra 1961
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Varaždin Istra 1961
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
2.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Varaždin Istra 1961
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 2.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Varaždin
Istra 1961
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Varaždin
vs
Istra 1961
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Varaždin Istra 1961
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Varaždin 0.39
Istra 1961 0.20
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Varaždin Istra 1961
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Varaždin 0.00
Istra 1961 0.06
Varaždin
Istra 1961
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Varaždin had peak pressure around 39'.
  • Istra 1961 started the game with stronger pressure.
Varaždin Pressure Istra 1961 Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Varaždin reached the top pressure at 39' (94.82).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 33 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Varaždin Varaždin Home
33 matches
Istra 1961 Istra 1961 Away
Match Record
10
Wins
11
12
Draws
12
11
Losses
10
Goals
30
Goals Scored
34
34
Goals Conceded
30
-4
Goal Difference
+4

Data last updated: 2026-05-24T00:01:52+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
O. Zelenika
Croatia
1 O. Zelenika
N. Tepšić
Croatia
16 N. Tepšić
S. Lesjak
Croatia
2 S. Lesjak
R. Punčec
Croatia
14 R. Punčec
F. Maglica
Croatia
23 F. Maglica
T. Duvnjak
Substitution
Croatia
8 T. Duvnjak
D. Puclin
Substitution
Croatia
6 D. Puclin
A. Boršić
Substitution
Croatia
25 A. Boršić
A. Latković
Substitution
Montenegro
10 A. Latković
L. Mamić
Substitution
Croatia
22 L. Mamić
I. Canjuga
Croatia
28 I. Canjuga
Pitch
J. Paus-Kunšt
Croatia
40 J. Paus-Kunšt
S. Miettinen
Finland
16 S. Miettinen
R. Kumar
Croatia
38 R. Kumar
F. Taraba
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
24 F. Taraba
N. Šepić
Croatia
13 N. Šepić
S. Lončar
Bosnia and Herzegovina
10 S. Lončar
J. Radošević
Substitution
Croatia
5 J. Radošević
R. Hrvatin
Slovenia
44 R. Hrvatin
S. Goričan
Substitution
Croatia
11 S. Goričan
A. Obando
Substitution
Ecuador
29 A. Obando
D. Ahmeti
Substitution
Croatia
20 D. Ahmeti

General Information

Date & Time :
May 23, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Anđelko Herjavec
Capacity :
10800
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ante Čulina
Kruno Šarić
Marko Maloča
Antonio Škobić

Statistics

Possession
Varaždin
44%
Istra 1961
56%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
7 Big Chances Created 0
4 Shots 6
31 Dangerous attacks 55
41 Possession 59
2 Corners 3
9 Free kicks 18
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

19 Throwins 21
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 24
5 Successful Dribbles 5
5 Dribble Attempts 5
2 Penalties 0
8 Goal Kicks 6
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

62 Attacks 87

Possession

30 Long Passes 27
6 Key Passes 7
320 Passes 453
239 Successful Passes 379
75 Successful Passes Percentage 84

Defensive

53 Duels Won 51
4 Saves 5
24 Tackles 15
10 Interceptions 9

Build-up

8 Total Crosses 16

Discipline

18 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Ante Čulina

Starting XI ▼

1
Oliver Zelenika
Oliver Zelenika Goalkeeper
2
Sven Lesjak
Sven Lesjak Defender
14
Roberto Puncec
Roberto Puncec Defender
16
Novak Tepsic
Novak Tepsic Defender
6
David Puclin
David Puclin Midfielder
24
Mario Marina
Mario Marina
Midfielder65'
8
Tomislav Duvnjak
Tomislav Duvnjak Midfielder
30
Luka Posinković
Luka Posinković
Defender90+1'
23
Frane Maglica
Frane Maglica Midfielder
25
Antonio Borsic
Antonio Borsic Midfielder
20
Gregor Sikosek
Gregor Sikosek
Defender65'
10
Aleksa Latkovic
Aleksa Latkovic Attacker
38
Iuri Tavares
Iuri Tavares
Attacker65'
22
Luka Mamic
Luka Mamic Attacker
2
9
Stipe Juric
Stipe Juric
Attacker76'
28
Ivan Canjuga
Ivan Canjuga Attacker
Referee : Ante Čulina

Starting XI ▼

40
Jan Paus-Kunst
Jan Paus-Kunst Goalkeeper
16
Samuli Miettinen
Samuli Miettinen Defender
24
Filip Taraba
Filip Taraba Defender
97
Advan Kadusic
Advan Kadusic
Defender46'
38
Raul Kumar
Raul Kumar Defender
5
Josip Radosevic
Josip Radosevic Midfielder
8
Antonio Mauric
Antonio Mauric
Midfielder46'
10
Stjepan Loncar
Stjepan Loncar Midfielder
13
Niko Šepić
Niko Šepić Midfielder
44
R. Hrvatin
R. Hrvatin Midfielder
11
Silvio Gorican
Silvio Gorican Attacker
7
Vinko Rozic
Vinko Rozic
Attacker46'
20
Dukan Ahmeti
Dukan Ahmeti Attacker
17
Emil Frederiksen
Emil Frederiksen
Attacker67'
29
Allen Obando
Allen Obando Attacker
77
Charles Adah Agada
Charles Adah Agada
Attacker78'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Luka Posinković → Tomislav Duvnjak
10th Substitution
90+1'
78'
Event
Charles Adah Agada → Allen Obando
9th Substitution
Event
Tomislav Duvnjak
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
77'
Event
Stipe Juric → Luka Mamic
8th Substitution
76'
67'
Event
Emil Frederiksen → Dukan Ahmeti
7th Substitution
Event
Gregor Sikosek → Antonio Borsic
5th Substitution
65'
Event
Iuri Tavares → Aleksa Latkovic
6th Substitution
65'
Event
Mario Marina → David Puclin
4th Substitution
65'
Event
Antonio Borsic
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
50'
46'
Event
Advan Kadusic → Filip Taraba
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Antonio Mauric → Josip Radosevic
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Vinko Rozic → Silvio Gorican
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Luka Mamic
Right foot shot / 2nd Penalty
38'
37'
Event
Josip Radosevic
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Novak Tepsic
Penalty awarded
36'
25'
Event
Raul Kumar
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Luka Mamic
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
14'
13'
Event
Filip Taraba
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Novak Tepsic
Penalty awarded
12'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Luka Posinkovic comes on for Tomislav Duvnjak.
89
Attempt Attempt
Advan Kadusic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
88
Attempt Attempt
Vinko Rozic's right-footed shot is saved.
85
Attempt Attempt
Emil Frederiksen's header is saved.
81
Attempt Attempt
Charles Agada takes a left-footed shot but misses.
78
Substitution Substitution
Agada is substituted for Allen Obando.
77
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tomislav Duvnjak receives a yellow card.
76
Update Update
Stipe Juric comes on for Luka Mamic.
66
Update Update
Emil Frederiksen is on, and Dukan Ahmeti is off.
65
Update Update
Mario Marina replaces David Puclin.
65
Update Update
Gregor Sikosek replaces Antonio Borsic.
62
Attempt Attempt
Dukan Ahmeti takes a right-footed shot but misses.
60
Attempt Attempt
Niko Sepic's right-footed shot is saved.
55
Attempt Attempt
Allen Obando takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Vinko Rozic comes on for Silvio Gorican.
46
Update Update
Advan Kadusic replaces Filip Taraba.
46
Attempt Attempt
Aleksa Latkovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Antonio Mauric comes on for Josip Radosevic.
45
Attempt Attempt
Luka Mamic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
David Puclin takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
43
Attempt Attempt
Aleksa Latkovic takes a shot with his right foot but misses.
42
Attempt Attempt
Luka Mamic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
38
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Luka Mamic scores, making it 2-0.
38
Attempt Attempt
Luka Mamic scores with a right-footed shot.
36
Update Update
VAR review results in a penalty awarded to Novak Tepsic.
33
Attempt Attempt
Luka Mamic's left-footed shot is saved.
33
Attempt Attempt
Aleksa Latkovic takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
31
Attempt Attempt
Rene Hrvatin takes a right-footed shot but misses.
27
Attempt Attempt
Niko Sepic's right-footed shot is blocked.
27
Attempt Attempt
Allen Obando's left-footed shot is saved.
25
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Raul Kumar receives a yellow card.
23
Attempt Attempt
Tomislav Duvnjak takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
23
Attempt Attempt
Luka Mamic takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
23
Attempt Attempt
Tomislav Duvnjak takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
16
Attempt Attempt
Niko Sepic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
14
Attempt Attempt
Luka Mamic scores with a right-footed shot.
14
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Luka Mamic scores. The match score is 1-0.
12
Update Update
VAR decision confirms a penalty awarded for Novak Tepsic.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Varaždin 2-0 Istra 1961. Structural assessment: Varaždin exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Varaždin vs Istra 1961 preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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