Vålerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Intility Arena Sat, 16 May - 6:00 PM
Eliteserien
Vålerenga Vålerenga
3 Winner 2
Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08
Full Time Sat, 16 May 6:00 PM
Round 9 Regular Season
M. Grundetjern - 90'
Elias Sørensen - 20'
Filip Thorvaldsen - 6'
Goal
|
Goal
Andreas Hansen - 28'
Daniel Karlsbakk - 11'

CONTEXT

Vålerenga hosted Sarpsborg 08 in a match that concluded with a 3-2 victory for the home side. The game was level at halftime with both teams finding the net twice. Vålerenga maintained 54 percent possession compared to Sarpsborg 08's 46 percent. Expected goals favored the hosts at 2.77 against 2.22 for the visitors. No red cards were shown to either team throughout the contest. The stronger side according to pre-match assessment delivered the win in line with overall performance metrics. The outcome reflected the underlying data without major surprises in the final stages.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Deviation from expected patterns registered at a minimal level of 4.4 percent for Vålerenga.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match projections for both sides.
  • xG alignment: The final result proved consistent with the expected goals distribution.
  • Market alignment: The match outcome aligned with prevailing market indicators.
  • xG expectations: Vålerenga posted 2.77 expected goals while Sarpsborg 08 recorded 2.22.
  • Event impact: The second-half goal by Vålerenga proved decisive in securing the 3-2 win.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred to alter the flow or structure of the game.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Lien

Norway 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

E. Helgerud

2nd Assistant

Norway

D. Nebben

1st Assistant

Norway

H. Holthe

4th Official

Norway

League averages

Eliteserien Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.63
Yellow cards / match 3.06
Red cards / match 0.11
Penalties / match 0.23
Vålerenga J. Moesgaard
J. Moesgaard
VS
Sarpsborg 08 E. Sel
E. Sel
0.9
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.4
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
HamKam Rank: 60 L
KFUM Rank: 56 D
Molde Rank: 64 L
Lillestrøm Rank: 58 L
Fredrikstad Rank: 60 D
Viking Rank: 79 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fredrikstad Rank: 61 W
Lillestrøm Rank: 56 L
KFUM Rank: 55 L
Tromsø Rank: 68 L
Bodø / Glimt Rank: 82 D
Rosenborg Rank: 61 L
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 8 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Vålerenga
95.61%
Draw
4.2%
Away Sarpsborg 08
0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
Vålerenga
+1.45%
Draw
-1.45%
Sarpsborg 08
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
59.1
58.25
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Vålerenga
Sarpsborg 08
Power Score
59.1
58.25
League Position
9
11
Global Rank
512
538

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Vålerenga — Opponent-weighted form score
Sarpsborg 08 — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Vålerenga Sarpsborg 08

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Vålerenga

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sarpsborg 08

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Vålerenga ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sarpsborg 08
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.28
47.72
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
47.72
30.28
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Vålerenga -1.77 Efficiency Index
vs
Sarpsborg 08 +1.77 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Vålerenga
Sarpsborg 08
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Vålerenga
vs
Sarpsborg 08
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Vålerenga Sarpsborg 08
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Vålerenga Sarpsborg 08
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Vålerenga
Sarpsborg 08
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Vålerenga
vs
Sarpsborg 08
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Vålerenga Sarpsborg 08
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Vålerenga 0.30
Sarpsborg 08 0.32
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Vålerenga Sarpsborg 08
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Vålerenga 0.03
Sarpsborg 08 0.06
Vålerenga
Sarpsborg 08
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Vålerenga had peak pressure around 22'.
  • Sarpsborg 08 started the game with stronger pressure.
Vålerenga Pressure Sarpsborg 08 Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Vålerenga reached the top pressure at 22' (99.85).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 26 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Vålerenga Vålerenga Home
26 matches
Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 Away
Match Record
10
Wins
8
8
Draws
8
8
Losses
10
Goals
43
Goals Scored
35
35
Goals Conceded
43
+8
Goal Difference
-8

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:58:18+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
O. Hedvall
Denmark
1 O. Hedvall
V. Eggen Hedenstad
Substitution
Norway
6 V. Eggen Hedenstad
A. Olsen
Norway
4 A. Olsen
I. Näsberg
Norway
37 I. Näsberg
K. Finnsson
Iceland
2 K. Finnsson
H. Bjørdal
Norway
8 (C) H. Bjørdal
C. Lange
Substitution
Denmark
10 C. Lange
M. Westergaard
Substitution
Denmark
28 M. Westergaard
E. Sørensen
Substitution
Denmark
11 E. Sørensen
F. Thorvaldsen
Norway
26 F. Thorvaldsen
L. Janus Ravn-Haren
Substitution
Denmark
77 L. Janus Ravn-Haren
Pitch
M. Ndiaye
Senegal
1 M. Ndiaye
A. Hiim
Substitution
Norway
21 A. Hiim
M. Koch
Netherlands
2 M. Koch
B. Utvik
Norway
4 (C) B. Utvik
C. Niyukuri
Substitution
Norway
12 C. Niyukuri
A. Sher
Sweden
6 A. Sher
S. Christiansen
Norway
8 S. Christiansen
A. Hansen
Substitution
Denmark
33 A. Hansen
V. Halvorsen
Norway
22 V. Halvorsen
S. Sørli
Norway
10 S. Sørli
D. Seland Karlsbakk
Substitution
Norway
11 D. Seland Karlsbakk

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition :
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 9 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Intility Arena
Capacity :
3000
Attendance :
12889
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Marius Lien
Edvard Helgerud
Dag Roger Nebben
Herman Holthe

Statistics

Possession
Vålerenga
52%
Sarpsborg 08
48%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 3
4 Shots 4
47 Dangerous attacks 59
54 Possession 46
7 Corners 0
10 Free kicks 13
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

7 Successful Dribbles 5
18 Dribble Attempts 12
19 Throwins 29
39 Successful Dribbles Percentage 42
10 Goal Kicks 7
2 Assists 2
1 Penalties 0
5 Substitutions 4
11 Goal Attempts 15
91 Ball Safe 83

Attacking

99 Attacks 99
2 Counter Attacks 2
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52
457 Passes 384
80 Successful Passes Percentage 77
366 Successful Passes 296
61 Long Passes 60
30 Successful Long Passes 31
11 Key Passes 15

Defensive

48 Duels Won 49
8 Saves 4
6 Interceptions 6
14 Tackles 17

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 9
19 Total Crosses 26

Discipline

13 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Marius Lien

Starting XI ▼

1
Oscar Hedvall
Oscar Hedvall Goalkeeper
8.13
2
Kolbeinn Finnsson
Kolbeinn Finnsson Defender
6.7
4
Aaron Kiil Olsen
Aaron Kiil Olsen Defender
6.66
6
Vegar Eggen Hedenstad
Vegar Eggen Hedenstad Defender
6.5
3
Hakon Sjatil
Hakon Sjatil
Defender46'
6.8
37
Ivan Näsberg
Ivan Näsberg Defender
6.97
8
Henrik Bjørdal
Henrik Bjørdal (C) Midfielder
7.22
10
Carl Lange
Carl Lange Midfielder
6.88
29
Fidel Brice Ambina
Fidel Brice Ambina
Midfielder88'
6.62
11
Elias Sørensen
Elias Sørensen Midfielder
6.83
24
Petter Strand
Petter Strand
Midfielder83'
7
28
Magnus Westergaard
Magnus Westergaard Midfielder
6.29
15
Odin Holm
Odin Holm
Midfielder64'
6.73
26
Filip Thorvaldsen
Filip Thorvaldsen Attacker
7.53
77
Lucas Haren
Lucas Haren Attacker
6.89
17
M. Grundetjern
M. Grundetjern
Midfielder64'
7.1
Referee : Marius Lien

Starting XI ▼

1
Mamour Ndiaye
Mamour Ndiaye Goalkeeper
7.09
2
Menno Koch
Menno Koch Defender
6.48
4
Bjørn Inge Utvik
Bjørn Inge Utvik (C) Defender
7.02
12
Claus Niyukuri
Claus Niyukuri Defender
6.87
5
Magnar Odegaard
Magnar Odegaard
Defender80'
6.31
21
Anders Hiim
Anders Hiim Defender
6.27
32
Eirik Wichne
Eirik Wichne
Defender90'
6.64
6
Aimar Sher
Aimar Sher Midfielder
6.51
8
Sander Christiansen
Sander Christiansen Midfielder
7.57
10
Sondre Sörli
Sondre Sörli Midfielder
7.2
22
Victor Emanuel Halvorsen
Victor Emanuel Halvorsen Midfielder
6.5
33
Andreas Hansen
Andreas Hansen Midfielder
7.2
18
Bop Guèye
Bop Guèye
Midfielder83'
6.43
11
Daniel Karlsbakk
Daniel Karlsbakk Attacker
7.51
17
Noa Williams
Noa Williams
Midfielder83'
6.57

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
M. Grundetjern
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
90'
90'
Event
Eirik Wichne → Anders Hiim
9th Substitution
Event
Fidel Brice Ambina → Carl Lange
8th Substitution
88'
Event
Petter Strand → Elias Sørensen
6th Substitution
83'
83'
Event
Noa Williams → Daniel Karlsbakk
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Bop Guèye → Andreas Hansen
5th Substitution
80'
Event
Magnar Odegaard → Claus Niyukuri
4th Substitution
Event
Odin Holm → Magnus Westergaard
3rd Substitution
64'
Event
M. Grundetjern → Lucas Haren
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Hakon Sjatil → Vegar Eggen Hedenstad
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Aaron Kiil Olsen
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
30'
28'
Event
Andreas Hansen
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Elias Sørensen
GoalkeeperSave
20'
Event
Elias Sørensen
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
20'
11'
Event
Daniel Karlsbakk
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Filip Thorvaldsen
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
6'

CONCLUSION

Vålerenga secured a narrow home win that matched their stronger pre-match standing and higher expected goals total. The 3-2 scoreline emerged after a balanced first half that ended 2-2. Possession edges and chance creation supported the hosts throughout. Absence of dismissals allowed both teams to maintain full tactical options until the end. The result reinforced Vålerenga's position as the more effective side on the day. Sarpsborg 08 competed closely but could not overcome the slight underlying deficit. Overall the contest delivered a fitting conclusion based on the accumulated performance data.

Vålerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.