Vålerenga vs Lillestrøm Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Intility Arena Sun, 19 Apr - 12:30 PM
Eliteserien
Vålerenga Vålerenga
0 Winner 2
Lillestrøm Lillestrøm
Full Time Sun, 19 Apr 12:30 PM
Round 5 Regular Season
|
Goal
Kparobo Arierhi - 90+14'
Markus Karlsbakk - 86'

CONTEXT

Lillestrøm claimed a convincing 2-0 away victory over Vålerenga in a match marked by their clear dominance. The first half ended goalless, with both teams locked at 0-0 despite Lillestrøm holding 60% possession to Vålerenga's 40%. The second half saw Lillestrøm break through, scoring twice without reply, showcasing their superior control and finishing. No red cards were shown, ensuring uninterrupted play, and as the pre-identified stronger team, Lillestrøm delivered a performance that significantly deviated from pre-match market structure by 63.5%. Vålerenga struggled to create chances, unable to capitalize on home advantage. Efficiency metrics aligned with expectations, though xG data was unavailable for deeper analysis. This result underscores Lillestrøm's tactical edge and second-half execution.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The match result showed a significant 63.5% structural deviation favoring Lillestrøm.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment was not achieved.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the outcome.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards caused no distortion to the result.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Kringstad

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Røvig Sletner

4th Official

?. Simon Ytterland

1st Assistant

K. Haglund

2nd Assistant

Vålerenga G. Bakke
G. Bakke
VS
Lillestrøm H. Ødegaard
H. Ødegaard
1.4
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.5
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fredrikstad Rank: D
Viking Rank: L
Rosenborg Rank: W
Sandefjord Rank: W
Viking Rank: L
Kristiansund Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Tromsø Rank: D
Start Rank: W
Molde Rank: W
Aalesund Rank: W
13
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
13 - 10 - 13
13

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Vålerenga
37.58%
Draw
25.92%
Away Lillestrøm
36.49%

Movement

Changes since opening
Vålerenga
+37.2%
Draw
+17.24%
Lillestrøm
-54.45%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
24.35
32.82
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Vålerenga
Lillestrøm
Power Score
24.35
32.82
League Position
6
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Vålerenga — Opponent-weighted form score
Lillestrøm — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Vålerenga Lillestrøm

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Vålerenga

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lillestrøm

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Vålerenga ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lillestrøm
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
52.50
30.25
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.25
52.50
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Vålerenga +2.26 Efficiency Index
vs
Lillestrøm -2.26 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Vålerenga
Lillestrøm
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Vålerenga ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lillestrøm
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Vålerenga Lillestrøm
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Vålerenga Lillestrøm
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Vålerenga
Lillestrøm
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Vålerenga
vs
Lillestrøm
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Vålerenga Lillestrøm
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Vålerenga 0.30
Lillestrøm 0.37
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Vålerenga Lillestrøm
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Vålerenga 0.05
Lillestrøm 0.00
Vålerenga
Lillestrøm
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Vålerenga had peak pressure around 73'.
  • Vålerenga started the game with stronger pressure.
Vålerenga Pressure Lillestrøm Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Vålerenga reached the top pressure at 73' (95.70).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 36 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Vålerenga Vålerenga Home
36 matches
Lillestrøm Lillestrøm Away
Match Record
13
Wins
13
10
Draws
10
13
Losses
13
Goals
45
Goals Scored
43
43
Goals Conceded
45
+2
Goal Difference
-2

Data last updated: 2026-04-20T00:02:36+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
O. Hedvall
Denmark
1 O. Hedvall
H. Sjåtil
Substitution
Norway
3 H. Sjåtil
A. Olsen
Norway
4 A. Olsen
I. Näsberg
Norway
37 I. Näsberg
K. Finnsson
Iceland
2 K. Finnsson
L. Janus Ravn-Haren
Substitution
Denmark
77 L. Janus Ravn-Haren
M. Westergaard
Substitution
Denmark
28 M. Westergaard
F. Ambina
Substitution
Cameroon
29 F. Ambina
C. Lange
Denmark
10 C. Lange
H. Bjørdal
Norway
8 H. Bjørdal
M. Grundetjern
Substitution
Norway
17 M. Grundetjern
Pitch
P. Dahlberg
Sweden
12 P. Dahlberg
Y. Paintsil
Substitution
Norway
26 Y. Paintsil
S. Foss
Norway
5 S. Foss
L. Gabrielsen
Norway
28 L. Gabrielsen
L. Ranger
Norway
2 L. Ranger
Y. Ibrahimaj
Kosovo
29 Y. Ibrahimaj
V. António Félix
Substitution
Angola
20 V. António Félix
E. Bugale Kitolano
Substitution
Norway
17 E. Bugale Kitolano
M. Karlsbakk
Norway
8 M. Karlsbakk
S. Drammeh
Substitution
Gambia
15 S. Drammeh
T. Lehne Olsen
Substitution
Norway
10 T. Lehne Olsen

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 19, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition :
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 5 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Intility Arena
Capacity :
3000
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Stian Røvig Sletner
Øystein Simon Ytterland
Kim Haglund
Sigurd Smehus Kringstad

Statistics

Possession
Vålerenga
44%
Lillestrøm
56%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
0 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 3
60 Dangerous attacks 43
40 Possession 60
13 Corners 6
7 Free kicks 10
3 Yellow Cards 5

Match Overview

11 Dribble Attempts 16
3 Successful Dribbles 5
6 Goal Kicks 11
22 Throwins 17
73 Ball Safe 87
27 Successful Dribbles Percentage 31
10 Goal Attempts 13
0 Injuries 1
5 Substitutions 6
0 Assists 2

Attacking

75 Attacks 100
9 Counter Attacks 4

Possession

13 Key Passes 14
325 Passes 524
59 Long Passes 45
29 Successful Long Passes 19
75 Successful Passes Percentage 83
49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42
244 Successful Passes 434

Defensive

45 Duels Won 43
20 Tackles 15
10 Interceptions 4
4 Saves 3

Build-up

38 Total Crosses 10
8 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

10 Fouls 7
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Sigurd Smehus Kringstad

Starting XI ▼

1
Oscar Hedvall
Oscar Hedvall Goalkeeper
7.22
2
Kolbeinn Finnsson
Kolbeinn Finnsson Defender
7.28
3
Hakon Sjatil
Hakon Sjatil Defender
6.92
6
Vegar Eggen Hedenstad
Vegar Eggen Hedenstad
Defender80'
6.71
4
Aaron Kiil Olsen
Aaron Kiil Olsen Defender
7.19
37
Ivan Näsberg
Ivan Näsberg Defender
7.24
10
Carl Lange
Carl Lange Midfielder
6.95
28
Magnus Westergaard
Magnus Westergaard Midfielder
7.14
15
Odin Holm
Odin Holm
Midfielder90+1'
6.42
29
Fidel Brice Ambina
Fidel Brice Ambina Midfielder
6.75
11
Elias Sørensen
Elias Sørensen
Attacker46'
6.65
77
Lucas Haren
Lucas Haren Midfielder
6.6
24
Petter Strand
Petter Strand
Midfielder90'
6.52
8
Henrik Bjørdal
Henrik Bjørdal Attacker
7.2
17
M. Grundetjern
M. Grundetjern Attacker
6.89
26
Filip Thorvaldsen
Filip Thorvaldsen
Attacker79'
6.62
Referee : Sigurd Smehus Kringstad

Starting XI ▼

12
Pontus Dahlberg
Pontus Dahlberg Goalkeeper
7.64
2
Lars Ranger
Lars Ranger Defender
7.32
5
Sander Moen Foss
Sander Moen Foss Defender
6.97
26
Yaw Paintsil
Yaw Paintsil Defender
6.73
3
Sturla Ottesen
Sturla Ottesen
Defender87'
7.09
28
Ruben Gabrielsen
Ruben Gabrielsen Defender
6.6
8
Markus Karlsbakk
Markus Karlsbakk Midfielder
7.26
15
Salieu Drammeh
Salieu Drammeh Midfielder
6.89
23
Ulrik Yttergård Jenssen
Ulrik Yttergård Jenssen
Defender90+6'
6.83
17
Eric Kitolano
Eric Kitolano Midfielder
6.84
14
Gustav Nyheim
Gustav Nyheim
Attacker46'
6.7
20
Felix Vá
Felix Vá Midfielder
7.32
19
Camil Jebara
Camil Jebara
Attacker80'
6.7
29
Y. Ibrahimaj
Y. Ibrahimaj Midfielder
7.01
10
Thomas Lehne Olsen
Thomas Lehne Olsen Attacker
7.31
9
Kparobo Arierhi
Kparobo Arierhi
Attacker80'
6.58

Events

2ND-HALF
90+14'
Event
Kparobo Arierhi
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
90+14'
Event
Pontus Dahlberg
Argument / 8th Yellowcard
Event
Aaron Kiil Olsen
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
90+11'
90+11'
Event
Ruben Gabrielsen
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
90+10'
Event
Gustav Nyheim
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Ulrik Yttergård Jenssen → Salieu Drammeh
10th Substitution
Event
Odin Holm → Magnus Westergaard
9th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Petter Strand → Lucas Haren
8th Substitution
90'
90'
Event
Markus Karlsbakk
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
87'
Event
Sturla Ottesen → Yaw Paintsil
7th Substitution
86'
Event
Markus Karlsbakk
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Vegar Eggen Hedenstad → Hakon Sjatil
5th Substitution
80'
80'
Event
Camil Jebara → Felix Vá
6th Substitution
80'
Event
Kparobo Arierhi → Thomas Lehne Olsen
4th Substitution
Event
Filip Thorvaldsen → M. Grundetjern
3rd Substitution
79'
Event
Elias Sørensen → Fidel Brice Ambina
2nd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Gustav Nyheim → Eric Kitolano
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Fidel Brice Ambina
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
45+4'
Event
9th Yellowcard
45+4'
Event
Carl Lange
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
45'
39'
Event
Lars Ranger
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Ivan Näsberg
Penalty disallowed
16'

CONCLUSION

Lillestrøm's 2-0 win over Vålerenga exemplifies their superiority, converting 60% possession into decisive second-half goals after a cautious first half. The significant 63.5% deviation from market structure highlights an underappreciated edge for the away side, who were marginally favored pre-match. Without red cards or disruptions, the result reflects pure execution, with efficiency in line despite missing xG insights. Vålerenga's home effort fell short, exposing vulnerabilities in chance creation. This outcome reinforces Lillestrøm's status as the stronger team, providing a clear post-match narrative of dominance and opportunism.

Vålerenga vs Lillestrøm preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Author

Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.