Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio de Mestalla Yesterday - 5:00 PM
La Liga
Valencia VAL
1 – 1
Rayo Vallecano RAY
Full Time Yesterday 5:00 PM
Round 36 Regular Season
Diego López - 40'
Goal
|
Goal
Florian Lejeune - 20'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Valencia 1–1 Rayo Vallecano. The match ended in a draw. Rayo Vallecano showed a moderate deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 53%–47%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match exhibited moderate structural deviation of 8.8% favoring Rayo Vallecano.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing expected goals data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable from absent data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the game's trajectory.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion to match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Quintero González

Spain 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

?. Granel Peiró

1st Assistant

Spain

J. García Lozano

2nd Assistant

Spain

F. Expósito Jaramillo

4th Official

Spain

League averages

La Liga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.93
Yellow cards / match 4.23
Red cards / match 0.23
Penalties / match 0.3
Valencia C. Corberán Vallet
C. Corberán Vallet
VS
Rayo Vallecano I. Pérez Soto
I. Pérez Soto
1.39
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.22
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Athletic Club Rank: 79 W
Atlético Madrid Rank: 89 L
Girona Rank: 76 W
Mallorca Rank: 76 D
Elche Rank: 74 L
Celta de Vigo Rank: 80 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Girona Rank: 75 D
Getafe Rank: 77 W
Real Sociedad Rank: 80 D
Espanyol Rank: 73 W
Mallorca Rank: 76 L
Elche Rank: 74 W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 10 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Valencia
5.53%
Draw
91.23%
Away Rayo Vallecano
3.24%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
77.77
78.71
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
Power Score
77.77
78.71
League Position
12
9
Global Rank
79
72

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Valencia — Opponent-weighted form score
Rayo Vallecano — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Valencia Rayo Vallecano

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Valencia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rayo Vallecano

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Valencia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rayo Vallecano
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.98
17.23
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.23
26.98
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Valencia +0.88 Efficiency Index
vs
Rayo Vallecano -0.88 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Valencia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rayo Vallecano
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Valencia Rayo Vallecano
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Valencia Rayo Vallecano
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Valencia
vs
Rayo Vallecano
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Valencia Rayo Vallecano
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Valencia 0.26
Rayo Vallecano 0.14
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Valencia Rayo Vallecano
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Valencia 0.02
Rayo Vallecano 0.02
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • VAL had peak pressure around 46'.
  • RAY started the game with stronger pressure.
VAL Pressure RAY Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: VAL reached the top pressure at 46' (80.97).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 23 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Valencia VAL Home
23 matches
Rayo Vallecano RAY Away
Match Record
8
Wins
5
10
Draws
10
5
Losses
8
Goals
33
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
33
+11
Goal Difference
-11

Data last updated: 2026-05-15T00:01:52+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
S. Dimitrievski
Macedonia
1 S. Dimitrievski
R. Saravia
Substitution
Argentina
20 R. Saravia
C. Tárrega Requeni
Spain
5 C. Tárrega Requeni
E. Cömert
Switzerland
24 E. Cömert
J. Gayá Peña
Substitution
Spain
14 J. Gayá Peña
D. López Noguerol
Spain
16 D. López Noguerol
J. García Vayá
Substitution
Spain
18 J. García Vayá
G. Rodríguez
Argentina
2 G. Rodríguez
L. Rioja González
Spain
11 L. Rioja González
H. Duro
Substitution
Spain
9 H. Duro
J. Guerra Moreno
Substitution
Spain
8 J. Guerra Moreno
Pitch
A. Batalla Barga
Argentina
13 A. Batalla Barga
J. Chavarría Pérez
Spain
3 J. Chavarría Pérez
N. Mendy
France
32 N. Mendy
F. Lejeune
France
24 F. Lejeune
I. Balliu Campeny
Substitution
Albania
20 I. Balliu Campeny
G. Gumbau Garriga
Substitution
Spain
15 G. Gumbau Garriga
Ó. Martín Luengo
Substitution
Spain
23 Ó. Martín Luengo
L. Espino García
Uruguay
22 L. Espino García
P. Díaz Fanjul
Spain
4 P. Díaz Fanjul
F. Perez Martinez
Substitution
Spain
21 F. Perez Martinez
R. Ntekja
Substitution
France
11 R. Ntekja

General Information

Date & Time :
May 14, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio de Mestalla
Capacity :
49430
Attendance :
45851
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Alejandro Quintero González
Álvaro Granel Peiró
José Francisco García Lozano
Francisco Javier Expósito Jaramillo

Statistics

Possession
VAL
52%
RAY
48%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 3
6 Shots 1
46 Dangerous attacks 42
53 Possession 47
5 Corners 1
20 Free kicks 8
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

2 Injuries 2
0 Penalties 1
0 Goal Kicks 7
31 Throwins 17
0 Hit Woodwork 1
16 Successful Headers 18
14 Dribble Attempts 20
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
7 Successful Dribbles 9
1 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 5
69 Ball Safe 80
9 Goal Attempts 4

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 2
117 Attacks 93

Possession

55 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40
80 Successful Passes Percentage 78
56 Long Passes 75
31 Successful Long Passes 30
10 Key Passes 3
356 Successful Passes 316
445 Passes 406

Defensive

18 Tackles 21
57 Duels Won 56
2 Saves 2
9 Interceptions 17

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 11
6 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

9 Fouls 20
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Alejandro Quintero González

Starting XI ▼

1
Stole Dimitrievski
Stole Dimitrievski Goalkeeper
5
César Tárrega
César Tárrega Defender
14
José Gayà
José Gayà Defender
21
Jesús Vázquez
Jesús Vázquez
Defender63'
20
Renzo Saravia
Renzo Saravia Defender
4
Unai Núñez
Unai Núñez
Defender32'
24
Eray Cömert
Eray Cömert Defender
2
Guido Rodríguez
Guido Rodríguez Midfielder
11
Luis Rioja
Luis Rioja Midfielder
16
Diego López
Diego López Midfielder
18
Pepelu
Pepelu Midfielder
23
Filip Ugrinic
Filip Ugrinic
Midfielder61'
8
Javi Guerra
Javi Guerra Attacker
17
Largie Ramazani
Largie Ramazani
Attacker61'
9
Hugo Duro
Hugo Duro Attacker
6
Umar Sadiq
Umar Sadiq
Attacker61'
Referee : Alejandro Quintero González

Starting XI ▼

13
Augusto Batalla
Augusto Batalla Goalkeeper
3
Pep Chavarría
Pep Chavarría Defender
20
Iván Balliu
Iván Balliu Defender
2
Andrei Rațiu
Andrei Rațiu
Defender73'
24
Florian Lejeune
Florian Lejeune Defender
32
Nobel Mendy
Nobel Mendy Defender
4
Pedro Díaz
Pedro Díaz Midfielder
15
Gerard Gumbau
Gerard Gumbau Midfielder
17
Unai López
Unai López
Midfielder67'
21
Fran Pérez
Fran Pérez Midfielder
19
Jorge de Frutos
Jorge de Frutos
Attacker60'
22
Alfonso Espino
Alfonso Espino Midfielder
23
Óscar Valentín
Óscar Valentín Midfielder
6
Pathé Ciss
Pathé Ciss
Midfielder61'
11
Randy Nteka
Randy Nteka Attacker
9
Alexandre Zurawski
Alexandre Zurawski
Attacker60'

Events

2ND-HALF
73'
Event
Andrei Rațiu → Iván Balliu
10th Substitution
67'
Event
Unai López → Gerard Gumbau
9th Substitution
Event
Jesús Vázquez → José Gayà
8th Substitution
63'
Event
Largie Ramazani → Javi Guerra
5th Substitution
61'
Event
Umar Sadiq → Hugo Duro
6th Substitution
61'
Event
Filip Ugrinic → Pepelu
7th Substitution
61'
61'
Event
Pathé Ciss → Óscar Valentín
4th Substitution
60'
Event
Alexandre Zurawski → Randy Nteka
2nd Substitution
60'
Event
Jorge de Frutos → Fran Pérez
3rd Substitution
56'
Event
Randy Nteka
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Diego López
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
40'
Event
Unai Núñez → Renzo Saravia
1st Substitution
32'
20'
Event
Florian Lejeune
Header / 1st Goal
8'
Event
Randy Nteka
Woodwork
Event
Renzo Saravia
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
6'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Csar Tarrega takes a header but misses the shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Alfonso Espino takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
73
Update Update
Andrei Ratiu comes on for Ivan Balliu Campeny.
73
Attempt Attempt
Largie Ramazani's left-footed shot is blocked.
67
Update Update
Unai Lopez Cabrera replaces Gerard Gumbau.
66
Attempt Attempt
Largie Ramazani's left-footed shot is blocked.
63
Update Update
Jesus Vazquez comes on for Jose Luis Gaya Pena.
61
Update Update
Sadiq Umar replaces Hugo Duro.
61
Update Update
Largie Ramazani is on, and Javier Guerra is off.
61
Substitution Substitution
Pathe Ciss is substituted for Oscar Valentín.
61
Substitution Substitution
Filip Ugrinic comes on for Jose Luis Garcia Vaya, and Pepelu is also substituted.
60
Update Update
Jorge de Frutos is on, and Fran Perez is off.
60
Update Update
Alexandre Zurawski comes on for Randy Nteka.
56
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Randy Nteka receives a yellow card.
49
Attempt Attempt
Javier Guerra takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Jose Luis Garcia Vaya takes a shot, but Pepelu's header is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Diaz Fanjul takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
43
Attempt Attempt
Javier Guerra takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
40
Attempt Attempt
Diego Lopez Noguerol takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
40
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Diego Lopez Noguerol scores to make it 1-1, assisted by Javier Guerra.
37
Attempt Attempt
Luis Rioja's right-footed shot is blocked.
36
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Diaz Fanjul takes a shot with his right foot, but it is blocked.
35
Attempt Attempt
Eray Ervin Comert takes a right-footed shot but misses.
32
Update Update
Unai Nunez Gestoso comes on for Renzo Saravia.
30
Attempt Attempt
Randy Nteka takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
21
Update Update
Florian Lejeune scores with a header.
21
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Florian Lejeune scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Gerard Gumbau.
15
Attempt Attempt
Javier Guerra takes a right-footed shot but misses.
9
Attempt Attempt
Luis Rioja's left-footed shot is blocked.
8
Attempt Attempt
Randy Nteka takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
7
Attempt Attempt
Randy Nteka's penalty is saved.
7
Attempt Attempt
VAR decision: missed penalty to be retaken by Randy Nteka.
6
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Renzo Saravia receives a yellow card.
3
Attempt Attempt
Javier Guerra takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.

CONCLUSION

This 1-1 stalemate serves as a microcosm of La Liga's competitiveness, where Valencia's defensive organization neutralized Rayo Vallecano's superior pre-match standing. The first-half goals set the tone for a cagey affair, with neither side able to break the deadlock post-interval despite Valencia's possession dominance. Rayo's moderate deviation suggests untapped potential, yet the draw aligns with broader expectations, preventing either team from gaining crucial ground. For Valencia, it's a valuable point that bolsters home form; for Rayo, a reminder to convert pressure into wins. Both managers will view this as a fair reflection of balanced capabilities, setting up intriguing future fixtures in the race for European spots.

Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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