Valencia vs Deportivo Alavés Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio de Mestalla Mon, 9 Mar - 12:25 AM
La Liga
Valencia VAL
3 Winner 2
Deportivo Alavés ALA
Full Time Mon, 9 Mar 12:25 AM
Hugo Duro - 90+9' (P)
Eray Cömert - 90'
Javi Guerra - 47'
Goal
|
Goal
Lucas Boyé - 71', 3' (P)
|
Second yellow card Ander Guevara 90+6'
Second yellow card Jon Pacheco 90+7'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Valencia 3–2 Deportivo Alavés. The result saw Valencia take the points. Valencia showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 61%–39%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Valencia showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Guzmán Mansilla

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Martínez Serrato

1st Assistant

I. Ríos Vargas

2nd Assistant

J. Tárraga Lájara

4th Official

Valencia C. Corberán Vallet
C. Corberán Vallet
VS
Deportivo Alavés E. Sánchez Flores
E. Sánchez Flores
0.95
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.05
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Madrid Rank: L
Real Betis Rank: L
Espanyol Rank: W
Getafe Rank: W
Elche Rank: D
Celta de Vigo Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Getafe Rank: L
Espanyol Rank: W
Real Betis Rank: W
Atlético Madrid Rank: L
Villarreal Rank: L
Real Oviedo Rank: D
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 5 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Valencia
45.72%
Draw
30.36%
Away Deportivo Alavés
23.92%

Movement

Changes since opening
Valencia
+0.57%
Draw
-0.13%
Deportivo Alavés
-0.44%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
39.51
33.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Valencia
Deportivo Alavés
Power Score
39.51
33.33
League Position
12
16
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Valencia — Opponent-weighted form score
Deportivo Alavés — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Valencia Deportivo Alavés

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Valencia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Deportivo Alavés

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Valencia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Deportivo Alavés
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
38.36
30.90
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.90
38.36
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Valencia +0.68 Efficiency Index
vs
Deportivo Alavés -0.68 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Valencia
Deportivo Alavés
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Valencia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Deportivo Alavés
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Valencia Deportivo Alavés
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Valencia Deportivo Alavés
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Valencia
Deportivo Alavés
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Valencia VAL Home
9 matches
Deportivo Alavés ALA Away
Match Record
1
Wins
4
4
Draws
4
4
Losses
1
Goals
9
Goals Scored
10
10
Goals Conceded
9
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:26:14+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 09, 2026, 12:25 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Stadium :
Estadio de Mestalla
Capacity :
49430
Attendance :
41512
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
José Luis Guzmán Mansilla
José Luis Martínez Serrato
Iván Ríos Vargas
Jorge Tárraga Lájara

Statistics

Possession
VAL
58%
ALA
42%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 2
19 Shots 10
88 Dangerous attacks 41
61 Possession 39
10 Corners 2
16 Free kicks 8
1 Yellow Cards 6
0 Red Cards 2

Match Overview

49 Successful Dribbles Percentage 65
35 Dribble Attempts 23
1 Penalties 1
17 Successful Dribbles 15
21 Throwins 13
5 Goal Kicks 7
3 Successful Headers 13
5 Substitutions 4
1 Assists 1
82 Ball Safe 78
14 Goal Attempts 8
1 Hit Woodwork 0
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

153 Attacks 76
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

88 Successful Passes Percentage 80
490 Successful Passes 288
17 Successful Long Passes 22
55 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45
554 Passes 361
31 Long Passes 49
16 Key Passes 6

Defensive

18 Tackles 29
6 Interceptions 6
3 Saves 5
54 Duels Won 65

Build-up

33 Total Crosses 15
9 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

9 Fouls 17
4 Offsides 1

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Hugo Duro
Left foot shot / 2nd Penalty
90+9'
90+7'
Event
Jon Pacheco
Foul / 2nd Yellow/red Card
90+6'
Event
Ander Guevara
Argument / 1st Yellow/red Card
90+2'
Event
Ander Guevara
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Eray Cömert
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
90'
84'
Event
Mariano Díaz → Toni Martínez
9th Substitution
Event
Diego López → Largie Ramazani
7th Substitution
82'
Event
Dani Raba → Thierry Correia
8th Substitution
82'
Event
André Almeida → Javi Guerra
6th Substitution
82'
Event
Hugo Duro → Filip Ugrinic
5th Substitution
74'
71'
Event
Lucas Boyé
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
Arnaut Danjuma → Luis Rioja
4th Substitution
70'
68'
Event
Denis Suárez → Jon Guridi
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
Ander Guevara → Carles Aleñá
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Jon Pacheco
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Javi Guerra
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
47'
1ST-HALF
43'
Event
Youssef Enríquez
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
36'
Event
Jon Guridi
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
30'
Event
Youssef Enríquez → Carlos Protesoni
1st Substitution
Event
Largie Ramazani
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
17'
3'
Event
Lucas Boyé
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Unai Núñez from Valencia makes a powerful header from close range following a corner, but it strikes the crossbar.
90
Update Update
Valencia has been awarded a penalty! Hugo Duro is brought down inside the box, resulting in the foul.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Valencia takes the lead 3-2 against Alaves. Hugo Duro from Valencia successfully scores the penalty, striking with his left foot into the bottom left corner.
90
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Valencia after a play that resulted in a save by Antonio Sivera.
90
Corner Corner
Goal! Valencia takes the lead 3-2 against Alaves. Hugo Duro steps up and successfully converts the penalty, striking the ball with his left foot into the bottom left corner.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 8 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Jon Pacheco of Alaves has given away a penalty due to a foul committed inside the box.
90
Update Update
Dani Raba from Valencia has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Valencia after Jon Pacheco allowed the ball to go out.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ander Guevara of Alaves receives his second yellow card.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ander Guevara from Alaves has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
90
Corner Corner
Goal! It's now Valencia 2, Alaves 2. Eray Cömert scores for Valencia, firing a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom right corner following a corner kick.
90
Update Update
Ander Guevara from Alaves committed a foul.
90
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Arnaut Danjuma from Valencia attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
90
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Umar Sadiq from Valencia takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area. The attempt is thwarted by goalkeeper Antonio Sivera, who makes a save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Hugo Duro, who set it up with a header.
90
Corner Corner
A new offensive push unfolds as Arnaut Danjuma from Valencia takes a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but Antonio Sivera of Alaves makes a fantastic save, denying the attempt in the top left corner.
89
Attempt Attempt
A header attempt from Hugo Duro of Valencia is thwarted. He tried to score from the right side of the penalty area, but his shot was blocked. The cross that set him up came from André Almeida.
89
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Valencia after Jonny's defensive play.
87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Valencia after Jonny allowed the ball to go out.
87
Update Update
Hugo Duro from Valencia committed a foul.
86
Update Update
Antonio Sivera from Alaves has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
85
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Mariano Díaz from Alaves fires a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Alaves: Mariano Díaz comes on to replace Toni Martínez.
82
Update Update
Antonio Blanco from Alaves committed a foul.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Valencia: Diego López comes on to replace Largie Ramazani.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Valencia: André Almeida comes on to replace Javi Guerra.
82
Update Update
Largie Ramazani from Valencia earned a free kick in an offensive position.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Valencia: Dani Raba comes on to replace Thierry Correia.
81
Update Update
Unai Núñez from Valencia has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
81
Update Update
Antonio Blanco from Alaves committed a foul.
77
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered. Guido Rodríguez from Valencia attempted a header from the right side of the six-yard box following a corner kick.
77
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Valencia after Jonny allowed the ball to go out.
76
Update Update
Toni Martínez from Alaves committed a foul.
76
Update Update
Eray Cömert from Valencia was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
76
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Denis Suárez from Alaves took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area that narrowly missed the top right corner. The assist came from Lucas Boyé.
75
Update Update
Guido Rodríguez from Valencia earned a free kick in the defensive area.
75
Update Update
Denis Suárez from Alaves committed a foul.
74
Update Update
Thierry Correia from Valencia has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
74
Update Update
Lucas Boyé from Alaves committed a foul.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Valencia: Hugo Duro comes on to replace Filip Ugrinic.
71
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Alaves, following a foul by José Gayà.
71
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Valencia 1, Alaves 2. Lucas Boyé of Alaves scores with a header from the center of the box, directing it into the bottom right corner. The assist came from Denis Suárez, who delivered a precise cross following a corner kick.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Valencia: Arnaut Danjuma is coming on to replace Luis Rioja.
69
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Lucas Boyé from Alaves takes a right-footed shot from a challenging angle and a considerable distance on the left, but it gets blocked.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Alaves: Denis Suárez comes on to replace Jon Guridi.
68
Update Update
Guido Rodríguez from Valencia committed a handball.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Alaves: Ander Guevara replaces Carles Aleñá.
66
Update Update
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Lucas Boyé from Alaves attempts a header from the middle of the box. However, Stole Dimitrievski, the goalkeeper for Valencia, makes a crucial save right in the center of the goal. The assist came from Ángel Pérez, who delivered a well-placed cross.
64
Update Update
Thierry Correia from Valencia earned a free kick on the right side of the pitch.
64
Update Update
Thierry Correia from Valencia was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Valencia after Jon Pacheco allowed the ball to go out of play.
60
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Lucas Boyé from Alaves attempted a header from the center of the box, but it went just wide. The assist came from Youssef Enríquez, who delivered a cross.
59
Update Update
Umar Sadiq from Valencia committed a foul.
59
Update Update
Jonny from Alaves has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
58
Update Update
Umar Sadiq from Valencia has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jon Pacheco from Alaves has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
58
Update Update
Jon Pacheco from Alaves committed a foul.
57
Update Update
Lucas Boyé from Alaves committed a foul.
57
Update Update
Lucas Boyé from Alaves earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
54
Update Update
Filip Ugrinic from Valencia has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
53
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Valencia after Nahuel Tenaglia allowed the ball to go out.
53
Corner Corner
A new offensive play unfolds as Largie Ramazani from Valencia takes a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area. However, Antonio Sivera from Alaves makes a great save, pushing the ball to the right corner. The assist came from Guido Rodríguez.
52
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Largie Ramazani from Valencia fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
47
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now Valencia 1, Alaves 1. Javi Guerra scores for Valencia with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom left corner, assisted by Umar Sadiq.
46
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push! Filip Ugrinic from Valencia takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time.
45
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Lucas Boyé from Alaves takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score at Valencia 0, Alaves 1.
45
Update Update
Guido Rodríguez from Valencia committed a foul.
45
Update Update
Carles Aleñá from Alaves has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the scoreline reading Valencia 0, Alaves 1.
44
Update Update
Offside call against Valencia. Umar Sadiq has been caught in an offside position.
43
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Youssef Enríquez from Alaves has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
42
Update Update
Jon Pacheco from Alaves has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
42
Update Update
Youssef Enríquez from Alaves committed a foul.
42
Update Update
Thierry Correia from Valencia has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
42
Update Update
Umar Sadiq from Valencia committed a foul.
41
Update Update
Largie Ramazani from Valencia earned a free kick on the left flank.
41
Update Update
Ángel Pérez from Alaves committed a foul.
40
Update Update
Filip Ugrinic from Valencia has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
40
Update Update
Jonny from Alaves committed a foul.
39
Update Update
Offside call against Valencia. Umar Sadiq has been flagged for being in an offside position.
36
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jon Guridi of Alaves has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
34
Update Update
Carles Aleñá from Alaves earned a free kick in the defensive area.
34
Update Update
Umar Sadiq from Valencia committed a foul.
31
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Ángel Pérez from Alaves takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but Stole Dimitrievski of Valencia makes a save, directing the ball to the right corner.
30
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Alaves: Youssef Enríquez comes on to replace Carlos Protesoni due to an injury.
29
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
28
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Carlos Protesoni from Alaves.
27
Update Update
Nahuel Tenaglia from Alaves has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
27
Update Update
Filip Ugrinic from Valencia committed a foul.
26
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Valencia after Carlos Protesoni allowed the ball to go out of play.
25
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Javi Guerra from Valencia takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Filip Ugrinic.
25
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Valencia after Nahuel Tenaglia allowed the ball to go out.
24
Update Update
Offside call against Alaves. Ángel Pérez is caught in an offside position.
23
Update Update
Foul committed by Lucas Boyé of Alaves.
23
Update Update
Eray Cömert from Valencia has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
21
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Filip Ugrinic from Valencia takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
21
Update Update
Offside call against Valencia. Filip Ugrinic has been flagged for being offside.
21
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Largie Ramazani from Valencia takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. The attempt is halted by Alaves' goalkeeper, Antonio Sivera, who makes the save right in the middle of the goal. The assist comes from José Gayà.
20
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Umar Sadiq from Valencia attempted a header from the left side of the six-yard box following a corner kick.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Valencia after Antonio Blanco allowed the ball to go out.
19
Update Update
Offside call against Valencia. Umar Sadiq has been caught in an offside position.
17
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Largie Ramazani from Valencia has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
17
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
17
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Ángel Pérez from Alaves.
16
Update Update
Ángel Pérez from Alaves earned a defensive free kick.
16
Update Update
Largie Ramazani from Valencia committed a foul.
15
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Jonny from Alaves attempted a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it went just wide to the left. The assist came from Ángel Pérez, who delivered a cross.
12
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Luis Rioja from Valencia takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Largie Ramazani.
12
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Filip Ugrinic from Valencia takes a left-footed shot from a challenging angle on the left, but it's successfully blocked. The assist came from Largie Ramazani.
12
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Valencia after Ángel Pérez allowed the ball to go out.
10
Update Update
Guido Rodríguez from Valencia has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
10
Update Update
Carles Aleñá from Alaves committed a foul.
8
Update Update
Ángel Pérez from Alaves committed a handball.
7
Update Update
Umar Sadiq from Valencia has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
7
Update Update
Carles Aleñá from Alaves committed a foul.
6
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Alaves after Eray Cömert allowed the ball to go out.
3
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Alaves takes the lead against Valencia, 1-0. Lucas Boyé steps up to the spot and skillfully places the penalty into the bottom left corner with his right foot.
1
Update Update
Penalty awarded to Alaves! Toni Martínez is fouled inside the box.
1
Update Update
Guido Rodríguez of Valencia has given away a penalty following a foul committed in the box.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Valencia exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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