United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina Prediction, Preview and Stats

2026 World Cup, World
San Francisco Bay Area Stadium Thu, 2 Jul - 12:00 AM
World Cup
United States USA
2 Winner 0
Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH
Full Time Thu, 2 Jul 12:00 AM
Round of 32
Malik Tillman - 82'
Folarin Balogun - 45'
Goal
|
Folarin Balogun 64' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

The United States defeated Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 with a halftime score of 1-0. Expected goals stood at 1.26 for the United States and 0.5 for Bosnia and Herzegovina creating a differential of 0.76. Possession finished at 48 percent for the United States and 52 percent for Bosnia and Herzegovina. The United States received one red card while Bosnia and Herzegovina received none. The stronger team prevailed and the outcome remained consistent with expected goals. Market alignment held true with minimal deviation of 2.1 percent attributed to the United States. Second half adjustments reflected red card distortion as the primary factor altering game flow after the interval.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Deviation measured minimal at 2.1 percent for the United States.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match projections for both sides.
  • xG alignment: The 2-0 result proved consistent with the xG distribution.
  • Market alignment: Market indicators aligned directly with the observed outcome.
  • xG expectations: xG values projected a moderate edge for the United States.
  • Event impact: The red card to the United States shaped second half dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion accounted for the listed second half adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Claus

Brazil 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 4 0.36
Fouls / match 30.4
Yellow cards / match 4
Red cards / match 0.36
Penalties / match 0.36

Other match officials

D. Simon Manis

1st Assistant

Brazil

R. Henrique Correa

2nd Assistant

Brazil

D. Herrera

4th Official

Argentina

League averages

World Cup Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.4
Yellow cards / match 2.07
Red cards / match 0.12
Penalties / match 0.12
United States M. Pochettino Trossero
M. Pochettino Trossero
VS
Bosnia and Herzegovina S. Barbarez
S. Barbarez
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.33
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Türkiye Rank: L
Australia Rank: W
Paraguay Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Qatar Rank: W
Switzerland Rank: L
Canada Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home United States
97.89%
Draw
1.92%
Away Bosnia and Herzegovina
0.2%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
34.81
20.22
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
United States
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Power Score
34.81
20.22
League Position
1
3
Global Rank
-
65

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

vs
United States Opponent-weighted form score
Bosnia and Herzegovina Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) United States Bosnia and Herzegovina

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

vs

United States

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

United States ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Bosnia and Herzegovina
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.25
21.92
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.92
21.25
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
United States -0.06 Efficiency Index
vs
Bosnia and Herzegovina +0.06 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
United States
Bosnia and Herzegovina
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

United States
vs
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Created Set-piece attacking threat
United States Bosnia and Herzegovina
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
24%
6%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.30 vs -0.03
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
United States Bosnia and Herzegovina
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
6%
24%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.03 vs -0.30
United States
Bosnia and Herzegovina
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

United States
vs
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
United States Bosnia and Herzegovina
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
United States Bosnia and Herzegovina
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
United States
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • USA had peak pressure around 20'.
  • USA started the game with stronger pressure.
USA Pressure BIH Pressure
Pressure Index: USA reached the top pressure at 20' (88.44).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

United States USA Home
0 matches
Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-03T00:00:23+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 5-3-2
Pitch
F. Matthew
United States
24 F. Matthew
A. Freeman
United States
16 A. Freeman
C. Richards
United States
3 C. Richards
T. Ream
United States
13 (C) T. Ream
A. Robinson
United States
5 A. Robinson
W. McKennie
Substitution
United States
8 W. McKennie
T. Adams
United States
4 T. Adams
M. Tillman
United States
17 M. Tillman
S. Dest
Substitution
United States
2 S. Dest
F. Balogun
United States
20 F. Balogun
C. Pulisic
Substitution
United States
10 C. Pulisic
Pitch
N. Vasilj
Bosnia and Herzegovina
1 N. Vasilj
S. Kolašinac
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
5 S. Kolašinac
S. Radeljić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
21 S. Radeljić
T. Muharemovic
Bosnia and Herzegovina
4 T. Muharemovic
N. Katić
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
18 N. Katić
A. Dedić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
7 A. Dedić
K. Alajbegović
Bosnia and Herzegovina
19 K. Alajbegović
I. Šunjić
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
14 I. Šunjić
A. Gigovic
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
8 A. Gigovic
E. Demirović
Bosnia and Herzegovina
10 E. Demirović
E. Džeko
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
11 (C) E. Džeko

General Information

Date & Time :
Jul 02, 2026, 12:00 AM
Competition :
2026 World Cup, World · Round of 32
Stadium :
San Francisco Bay Area Stadium
Capacity :
68500
Attendance :
68827
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Raphael Claus
Danilo Ricardo Simon Manis
Rodrigo Figueiredo Henrique Correa
Darío Herrera

Statistics

Possession
USA
51%
BIH
49%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 0
4 Shots 4
44 Dangerous attacks 28
48 Possession 52
4 Corners 3
12 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 1
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

91 Ball Safe 97
4 Goal Kicks 11
7 Goal Attempts 8
3 Substitutions 5
20 Throwins 20
1 Hit Woodwork 0
12 Successful Headers 9
3 Injuries 4
19 Dribble Attempts 11
9 Successful Dribbles 3
47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 27

Attacking

108 Attacks 87
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

42 Long Passes 50
415 Passes 447
349 Successful Passes 365
84 Successful Passes Percentage 82
5 Key Passes 6
17 Successful Long Passes 12
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 24

Defensive

3 Saves 0
12 Tackles 15
7 Interceptions 7
47 Duels Won 33

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 13
3 Accurate Crosses 0

Discipline

3 Offsides 0
7 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Raphael Claus

Starting XI

24
Matt Freese
Matt Freese Goalkeeper
7.32
3
Chris Richards
Chris Richards Defender
7.38
5
Antonee Robinson
Antonee Robinson Defender
7.3
13
Tim Ream
Tim Ream (C) Defender
7.13
16
Alex Freeman
Alex Freeman Defender
7.31
4
Tyler Adams
Tyler Adams Midfielder
6.66
8
Weston McKennie
Weston McKennie Midfielder
7.1
7
Giovanni Reyna
Giovanni Reyna
Midfielder90+5'
17
Malik Tillman
Malik Tillman Midfielder
7.57
2
Sergiño Dest
Sergiño Dest Attacker
6.99
14
Sebastian Berhalter
Sebastian Berhalter
Midfielder87'
10
Christian Pulisic
Christian Pulisic Attacker
6.72
9
Ricardo Pepi
Ricardo Pepi
Attacker88'
20
Folarin Balogun
Folarin Balogun Attacker
6.64
Referee : Raphael Claus

Starting XI

1
Nikola Vasilj
Nikola Vasilj Goalkeeper
5.57
4
Tarik Muharemović
Tarik Muharemović Defender
6.7
5
Sead Kolasinac
Sead Kolasinac Defender
6.51
23
Haris Tabakovic
Haris Tabakovic
Attacker75'
6.46
7
Amar Dedić
Amar Dedić Defender
6.59
18
Nikola Katic
Nikola Katic Defender
6.31
15
Amar Memic
Amar Memic
Midfielder75'
6.41
21
Stjepan Radeljic
Stjepan Radeljic Defender
6.22
8
Armin Gigovic
Armin Gigovic Midfielder
6.61
20
Esmir Bajraktarevic
Esmir Bajraktarevic
Attacker51'
6.85
14
Ivan Sunjic
Ivan Sunjic Midfielder
6.33
6
Benjamin Tahirović
Benjamin Tahirović
Midfielder51'
6.7
19
Kerim Alajbegovic
Kerim Alajbegovic Midfielder
6.18
10
Ermedin Demirovic
Ermedin Demirovic Attacker
6.89
11
Edin Džeko
Edin Džeko (C) Attacker
6.58
26
Ermin Mahmic
Ermin Mahmic
Midfielder51'
6.16

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Giovanni Reyna Weston McKennie
8th Substitution
90+5'
Event
Ricardo Pepi Christian Pulisic
7th Substitution
88'
Event
Sebastian Berhalter Sergiño Dest
6th Substitution
87'
Event
Malik Tillman
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
82'
80'
Event
Stjepan Radeljic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
80'
Event
Sergej Barbarez
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
75'
Event
Amar Memic Nikola Katic
4th Substitution
75'
Event
Haris Tabakovic Sead Kolasinac
5th Substitution
Event
Folarin Balogun
Foul / 1st Redcard
64'
Event
Folarin Balogun
Card adjusted
63'
51'
Event
Esmir Bajraktarevic Armin Gigovic
1st Substitution
51'
Event
Ermin Mahmic Edin Džeko
2nd Substitution
51'
Event
Benjamin Tahirović Ivan Sunjic
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Folarin Balogun
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
45'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Foul committed by Ricardo Pepi (USA).
90
Update Update
Benjamin Tahirovic from Bosnia and Herzegovina wins a free kick in the attacking half.
90
Attempt Attempt
Amar Memic's right-footed shot from a tough angle on the right is blocked.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 10 minutes of added time.
90
Attempt Attempt
Kerim Alajbegovic from Bosnia and Herzegovina misses an attempt with a right-footed shot from the left side of the box, sending the ball to the right. The assist came from Stjepan Radeljic.
90
Update Update
Stjepan Radeljic from Bosnia and Herzegovina is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Weston McKennie commits a foul for the USA.
90
Update Update
Malik Tillman (USA) is awarded a free kick on the left wing.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for the USA: Giovanni Reyna comes on for Weston McKennie.
90
Update Update
Amar Memic of Bosnia and Herzegovina commits a foul.
90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Alex Freeman (USA) with a right-footed shot from the right side of the box.
90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Ermin Mahmic from Bosnia and Herzegovina takes a right-footed shot from outside the box.
90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Ermin Mahmic from Bosnia and Herzegovina takes a right-footed shot from outside the box that goes close but misses to the left. He was assisted by Benjamin Tahirovic after a fast break.
90
Update Update
Tim Ream from the USA is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Offside called against the USA. Ricardo Pepi is caught offside.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Ermedin Demirovic of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for the USA: Ricardo Pepi comes on for Christian Pulisic.
88
Update Update
Matt Freese wins a free kick for the USA in the defensive half.
87
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Matt Freese from the USA.
87
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for the USA: Sebastian Berhalter comes on for Sergiño Dest.
87
Update Update
Ermedin Demirovic commits a foul for Bosnia and Herzegovina.
82
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Malik Tillman scores for the USA with a right-footed shot from a free kick into the top left corner. The score is now USA 2, Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Stjepan Radeljic from Bosnia and Herzegovina receives a yellow card for a foul.
80
Update Update
Sergiño Dest (USA) is awarded a free kick in the attacking half.
80
Update Update
Foul committed by Stjepan Radeljic of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
79
Attempt Attempt
Malik Tillman's left-footed shot from the center of the box for the USA is blocked.
79
Update Update
Christian Pulisic is caught offside for the USA.
77
Update Update
Christian Pulisic (USA) is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
77
Update Update
Esmir Bajraktarevic commits a foul for Bosnia and Herzegovina.
77
Attempt Attempt
Kerim Alajbegovic from Bosnia and Herzegovina has a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it is blocked.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bosnia and Herzegovina: Haris Tabakovic comes on for Sead Kolasinac.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bosnia and Herzegovina: Amar Memic comes on for Nikola Katic.
74
Attempt Attempt
Amar Dedic's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Esmir Bajraktarevic.
73
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bosnia and Herzegovina after Antonee Robinson concedes.
72
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
69
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
69
Update Update
Antonee Robinson from the USA is awarded a free kick in the attacking half.
69
Update Update
Foul committed by Amar Dedic of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
68
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Matt Freese from the USA saves a left-footed shot from Esmir Bajraktarevic of Bosnia and Herzegovina, taken from the left side of the box, in the center of the goal.
66
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Ermedin Demirovic's right-footed shot from the center of the box is saved.
64
Red Card Red Card Important
Folarin Balogun from the USA receives a red card.
63
Red Card Red Card Important
Folarin Balogun from the USA receives a red card.
63
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
61
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Folarin Balogun from the USA.
61
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Tarik Muharemovic from Bosnia and Herzegovina.
61
Update Update
VAR decision results in an upgraded card for Folarin Balogun of the USA.
61
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
56
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Nikola Katic from Bosnia and Herzegovina takes a right-footed shot from outside the box.
51
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bosnia and Herzegovina: Ermin Mahmic comes on for Edin Dzeko due to an injury.
51
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bosnia and Herzegovina: Benjamin Tahirovic comes on for Ivan Sunjic.
51
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bosnia and Herzegovina: Esmir Bajraktarevic comes on for Armin Gigovic.
48
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to the USA after Sead Kolasinac concedes.
47
Update Update
Christian Pulisic (USA) is awarded a free kick in the attacking half.
47
Update Update
Foul committed by Nikola Katic of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
46
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at USA 1, Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Folarin Balogun scores for the USA with a left-footed shot from the center of the box. The score is now USA 1, Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Tyler Adams (USA).
45
Update Update
Kerim Alajbegovic from Bosnia and Herzegovina wins a free kick in the attacking half.
45
Update Update
Christian Pulisic of the USA wins a free kick on the left wing.
45
Update Update
Amar Dedic commits a foul for Bosnia and Herzegovina.
45
Attempt Attempt
Folarin Balogun from the USA hits the woodwork with a right-footed shot from very close range.
45
Update Update
Delay in the match in the USA.
45
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
42
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Folarin Balogun from the USA takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box.
41
Update Update
Folarin Balogun from the USA is awarded a free kick on the right wing.
41
Update Update
Foul committed by Tarik Muharemovic of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
38
Update Update
Kerim Alajbegovic from Bosnia and Herzegovina is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
38
Update Update
Foul committed by Tyler Adams (USA).
33
Update Update
Edin Dzeko from Bosnia and Herzegovina is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
33
Update Update
Foul committed by Chris Richards (USA).
31
Update Update
Stjepan Radeljic from Bosnia and Herzegovina is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
31
Update Update
Sergiño Dest commits a foul for the USA.
31
Update Update
Offside against the USA. Folarin Balogun is caught offside.
27
Update Update
Armin Gigovic from Bosnia and Herzegovina is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
27
Update Update
Foul committed by Antonee Robinson of the USA.
26
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
23
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
21
Corner Corner
USA wins a corner after Tarik Muharemovic concedes.
20
Update Update
Antonee Robinson from the USA misses a header from very close range.
20
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
20
Update Update
Foul committed by Ivan Sunjic of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
18
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Nikola Vasilj from Bosnia and Herzegovina.
15
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Folarin Balogun from the USA takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box that goes close but misses to the right. Antonee Robinson provided the assist after a set piece situation.
14
Update Update
Sergiño Dest (USA) is awarded a free kick on the right wing.
14
Update Update
Sead Kolasinac commits a foul for Bosnia and Herzegovina.
10
Corner Corner
Bosnia and Herzegovina win a corner after Alex Freeman concedes.
10
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Ermedin Demirovic from Bosnia and Herzegovina has his right-footed shot from the right side of the box saved in the top center of the goal by Matt Freese from the USA. The assist came from Edin Dzeko.
8
Update Update
Ermedin Demirovic commits a foul for Bosnia and Herzegovina.
8
Update Update
Malik Tillman wins a free kick for the USA in the attacking half.
8
Update Update
Foul committed by Ivan Sunjic of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
8
Update Update
Chris Richards from the USA is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
6
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Armin Gigovic from Bosnia and Herzegovina.
6
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
5
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
4
Attempt Attempt
Christian Pulisic takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Raphael Claus.
1
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.

CONCLUSION

The United States completed a 2-0 win over Bosnia and Herzegovina despite playing with ten men following their red card. Expected goals of 1.26 to 0.5 supported the final margin and confirmed outcome consistency. Possession remained balanced yet the United States converted their opportunities efficiently after the interval. Minimal structural deviation of 2.1 percent indicated close alignment between projection and result. Red card distortion emerged as the dominant second half adjustment without altering the overall xG narrative. The halftime advantage of 1-0 provided a stable platform that the United States maintained through disciplined defending. This performance underscored reliable execution relative to underlying metrics across the full ninety minutes.

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