Union Saint-Gilloise vs Sint-Truiden Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Stade Joseph Mariën Sat, 4 Apr - 6:45 PM
Pro League Union Saint-Gilloise USG 
1 
0
0
Sint-Truiden SIT Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 6:45 PM
Round 1 · Championship Round
Guilherme Smith - 62'
|
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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Promotion Promotion Playoffs Relegation
Data last checked: May 14
CONTEXT
The match has concluded, with Union Saint-Gilloise securing a 1-0 full-time victory over Sint-Truiden after a completely scoreless first half. The home win aligned perfectly with the pre-match market, where Union Saint-Gilloise entered as clear favorites with a 58.3% probability of winning, compared to a 24.5% chance for a draw and 17.3% for the visitors. Union Saint-Gilloise dictated a slight majority of the play, finishing with 53% possession to Sint-Truiden's 47%. While expected goals (xG) data was unavailable to determine if the outcome was strictly consistent with the underlying chances created, the overall result matched the broader market prediction. However, the narrow 1-0 margin still represented a significant deviation (41.7%) for Union Saint-Gilloise compared to their anticipated level of pre-match dominance. The fixture was contested smoothly, with zero red cards issued to disrupt the flow or impact the tactical balance of either squad. Ultimately, the overall efficiency shift was entirely in line with standard expectations, allowing the stronger home side to translate their marginal possession advantage into a decisive second-half winner.
TL;DR
- Structural deviation: Union Saint-Gilloise showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
- Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
- xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
- Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
- xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
- Event impact: No major event distortion.
- Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Match referee
E. Lambrechts
• 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 
0.12
0.12 Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0
Other match officials
J. De Weirdt
1st Assistant
Q. Blaise
2nd Assistant
S. Bourdeaud'hui
4th Official
D. Hubert
VS
W. Vrancken
2.05
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.05
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sint-Truiden Rank: 77 W
Dender Rank: 61 W
Genk Rank: 77 W
Westerlo Rank: 70 D
Antwerp Rank: 69 W
Standard Liège Rank: 69 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 84 L
Genk Rank: 77 L
Cercle Brugge Rank: 67 W
Antwerp Rank: 69 L
Dender Rank: 61 W
Zulte-Waregem Rank: 64 W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 2 - 2
2
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min) Union Saint-Gilloise58.28%
Draw
24.47%
Sint-Truiden17.25%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
85.44 76.71 0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Union Saint-Gilloise Sint-TruidenPower Score
85.44
76.71
League Position
1
6
Global Rank
33
86
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Union Saint-Gilloise — Opponent-weighted form score
Sint-Truiden — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Union Saint-Gilloise Sint-Truiden
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
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Union Saint-Gilloise
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Sint-Truiden
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Union Saint-Gilloise ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Sint-Truiden
Attacking Efficiency Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
38.02
15.64
Defensive Efficiency Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
15.64
38.02
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Union Saint-Gilloise +2.12 Efficiency Index
vs
Sint-Truiden -2.12 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Union Saint-Gilloise
Sint-Truiden
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Union Saint-Gilloise ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Sint-Truiden
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Union Saint-Gilloise Sint-Truiden Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Union Saint-Gilloise Sint-Truiden Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Union Saint-Gilloise
Sint-Truiden
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Union Saint-Gilloisevs
Sint-Truiden
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Union Saint-Gilloise Sint-Truiden Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Union Saint-Gilloise 0.19
Sint-Truiden 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Union Saint-Gilloise Sint-Truiden Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Union Saint-Gilloise 0.00
Sint-Truiden 0.01
Union Saint-Gilloise
Sint-Truiden
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 12 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Union Saint-Gilloise USG Home
12 matches
Sint-Truiden SIT Away
Match Record 8
Wins
2
2
Draws
2
2
Losses
8
Goals 20
Goals Scored
11
11
Goals Conceded
20
+9
Goal Difference
-9
Expected Goals 1.98
xG
1.45
1.45
xGA
1.98
Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:06:48+00:00
STARTING XI
Union Saint-Gilloise Sint-Truiden Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
37 K. Scherpen
5 K. Mac Allister
16 C. Burgess
26 R. Sykes
25 A. Khalaili
17 R. Schoofs
8 A. Zorgane
L. Patris
#2782'
11 G. da Silva Carvalho
M. Fuseini
#782'
23 B. Zeneli
I. Pavlic
#1490+3'
10 A. El Hadj
K. Rodríguez Cortéz
#1372'
9 M. Biondic
16 L. Kokubo
3 T. Hata
5 S. Taniguchi
4 L. Mbe Soh
V. Musliu
#2669'
60 R. Vanwesemael
R. Merlen
#1479'
8 A. Sissako
6 R. Yamamoto
O. Diouf
#7768'
10 I. Sebaoui
K. Matsuzawa
#3879'
13 R. Ito
7 A. Muja
42 K. Goto
General Information
📅 Date & Time :
Apr 04, 2026, 06:45 PM
🏆 Competition :
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 1 · Championship Round
🏟️ Stadium :
Stade Joseph Mariën
👥 Capacity :
50093
🌱 Pitch Surface :
Grass
🌤️ Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
🧑⚖️ Referees :
Erik Lambrechts
Jo De Weirdt
Q. Blaise
Simon Bourdeaud'hui
Next Match
Union Saint-Gilloise
vs
Mechelen
League: Pro League
Kickoff: Sun, 12 Apr - 11:30 AM
Venue: Away
Sint-Truiden
vs
Club Brugge
League: Pro League
Kickoff: Sat, 11 Apr - 6:45 PM
Venue: Home
Statistics
Possession
USG
54%
SIT
46%
Top Statistics
1 Goals 0
3 Shots 3
83 Dangerous attacks 27
53 Possession 47
7 Corners 5
6 Free kicks 9
3 Yellow Cards 1
Match Overview
5 Goal Kicks 7
7 Dribble Attempts 3
16 Throwins 28
73 Ball Safe 83
7 Goal Attempts 3
1 Assists 0
4 Substitutions 4
Attacking
128 Attacks 84
Possession
414 Successful Passes 360
28 Long Passes 33
85 Successful Passes Percentage 79
492 Passes 454
12 Key Passes 4
Defensive
18 Tackles 19
12 Interceptions 7
1 Saves 2
Build-up
18 Total Crosses 8
Discipline
9 Fouls 6
1 Offsides 2
Lineup
Union Saint-Gilloise Referee : Erik Lambrechts
Manager ▼
D. Hubert Coach
Starting XI ▼
37 Kjell Scherpen Goalkeeper
5 Kevin Mac Allister Defender
16 Christian Burgess Defender
26 Ross Sykes Defender
8 Adem Zorgane Midfielder
11 Guilherme Smith Midfielder
27Louis Patris
Defender82'
17 Rob Schoofs Midfielder
25 Anan Khalaili Midfielder
9 Mateo Biondic Attacker
13Kevin Rodríguez
Attacker72'
10 Anouar Ait El Hadj Attacker
14Ivan Pavlić
Midfielder90+3'
23 Besfort Zeneli Attacker
7Mohammed Fuseini
Attacker82'
Substitutes ▼
13Kevin Rodríguez
Attacker72'
7Mohammed Fuseini
Attacker82'
27Louis Patris
Defender82'
14Ivan Pavlić
Midfielder90+3'
Bench ▼
1
Vic Chambaere Goalkeeper
19
Guillaume François Defender
29 Massiré Sylla Defender
48
Fedde Leysen Defender
22
Ousseynou Niang Midfielder
30
Raul Florucz Attacker
Sint-Truiden Referee : Erik Lambrechts
Manager ▼
W. Vrancken Coach
Starting XI ▼
16 Leo Kokubo Goalkeeper
3 Taiga Hata Defender
4 Loïc Mbe Soh Defender
5 Shogo Taniguchi Defender
60 Robert-Jan Vanwesemael Defender
26Visar Musliu
Defender69'
6 Rihito Yamamoto Midfielder
7 Arbnor Muja Midfielder
8 Abdoulaye Sissako Midfielder
14Ryan Merlen
Midfielder79'
10 Ilias Sebaoui Midfielder
77Oumar Diouf
Attacker68'
13 Ryotaro Ito Midfielder
38Kaito Matsuzawa
Attacker79'
42 Keisuke Goto Attacker
Substitutes ▼
77Oumar Diouf
Attacker68'
26Visar Musliu
Defender69'
38Kaito Matsuzawa
Attacker79'
14Ryan Merlen
Midfielder79'
Bench ▼
12
Jo Coppens Goalkeeper
21
Matt Lendfers Goalkeeper
22
Wolke Janssens Defender
23
Joedrick Pupe Defender
11
Isaías Delpupo Midfielder
33 Alouis Diriken Midfielder
Events
2ND-HALF
Christian Burgess
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
90+6'
Ivan Pavlić → Anouar Ait El Hadj
8th Substitution
90+3'
Adem Zorgane
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
87'
Mohammed Fuseini → Besfort Zeneli
6th Substitution
82'
Louis Patris → Guilherme Smith
7th Substitution
82'
79'
Kaito Matsuzawa → Ryotaro Ito
4th Substitution
79'
Ryan Merlen → Abdoulaye Sissako
5th Substitution
Kevin Rodríguez → Mateo Biondic
3rd Substitution
72'
Kevin Mac Allister
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
69'
69'
Visar Musliu → Robert-Jan Vanwesemael
2nd Substitution
68'
Oumar Diouf → Ilias Sebaoui
1st Substitution
63'
Robert-Jan Vanwesemael
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Guilherme Smith
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
62'
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Union Saint-Gilloise exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.
Union Saint-Gilloise vs Sint-Truiden preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
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