Union Saint-Gilloise vs Mechelen Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Stade Joseph Mariën Sun, 10 May - 4:30 PM
Pro League
Union Saint-Gilloise USG
3 Winner 0
Mechelen MEC
Full Time Sun, 10 May 4:30 PM
Round 7 Championship Round
Mohammed Fuseini - 90+1'
Anouar Ait El Hadj - 61'
Mateo Biondic - 11'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Union Saint-Gilloise secured a convincing 3-0 victory over Mechelen in a match that highlighted their clinical finishing despite controlling less possession at 43% compared to Mechelen's 57%. The home side took the lead in the first half with a 1-0 scoreline at halftime and added two more goals after the break to seal the win. As the stronger team, Union Saint-Gilloise delivered a performance marked by a significant 35.4% structural deviation in their favor, outperforming expectations. No red cards were shown, and there were no notable second-half adjustments reported. The result aligned with pre-match market assessments, where Union Saint-Gilloise were heavily favored at 64.6% probability. Efficiency stayed in line with norms, underscoring their dominance without xG data available for deeper analysis. This win reinforces Union Saint-Gilloise's strong form.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Union Saint-Gilloise's 3-0 win featured a significant 35.4% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No key events like red cards or adjustments altered match flow.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion in the scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

E. Lambrechts

Belgium 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. De Weirdt

1st Assistant

Belgium

Q. Blaise

2nd Assistant

Belgium

A. Letellier

4th Official

Belgium

League averages

Pro League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.02
Yellow cards / match 3.4
Red cards / match 0.19
Penalties / match 0.35
Union Saint-Gilloise D. Hubert
D. Hubert
VS
Mechelen F. Vanderbiest
F. Vanderbiest
2.09
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.27
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sint-Truiden Rank: 77 L
Anderlecht Rank: 73 W
Gent Rank: 72 D
Club Brugge Rank: 84 W
Mechelen Rank: 70 W
Sint-Truiden Rank: 78 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gent Rank: 72 W
Sint-Truiden Rank: 76 L
Club Brugge Rank: 84 L
Anderlecht Rank: 73 L
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 86 L
Gent Rank: 71 D
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 2 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Union Saint-Gilloise
64.55%
Draw
22.36%
Away Mechelen
13.09%

Movement

Changes since opening
Union Saint-Gilloise
-33.31%
Draw
+20.44%
Mechelen
+12.87%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
86.09
69.52
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Union Saint-Gilloise
Mechelen
Power Score
86.09
69.52
League Position
2
6
Global Rank
29
220

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Union Saint-Gilloise — Opponent-weighted form score
Mechelen — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Union Saint-Gilloise Mechelen

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Union Saint-Gilloise

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Mechelen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Union Saint-Gilloise ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Mechelen
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
36.86
13.86
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
13.86
36.86
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Union Saint-Gilloise +2.18 Efficiency Index
vs
Mechelen -2.18 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Union Saint-Gilloise
Mechelen
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Union Saint-Gilloise ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Mechelen
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Union Saint-Gilloise Mechelen
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Union Saint-Gilloise Mechelen
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Union Saint-Gilloise
Mechelen
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Union Saint-Gilloise
vs
Mechelen
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Union Saint-Gilloise Mechelen
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Union Saint-Gilloise 0.38
Mechelen 0.09
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Union Saint-Gilloise Mechelen
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Union Saint-Gilloise 0.00
Mechelen 0.08
Union Saint-Gilloise
Mechelen
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • USG had peak pressure around 85'.
  • MEC started the game with stronger pressure.
USG Pressure MEC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: USG reached the top pressure at 85' (75.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Union Saint-Gilloise USG Home
13 matches
Mechelen MEC Away
Match Record
6
Wins
5
2
Draws
2
5
Losses
6
Goals
13
Goals Scored
15
15
Goals Conceded
13
-2
Goal Difference
+2

Data last updated: 2026-05-11T00:05:56+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 5-3-2
Pitch
K. Scherpen
Netherlands
37 K. Scherpen
R. Sykes
England
26 R. Sykes
M. Sylla
29 M. Sylla
F. Leysen
Belgium
48 F. Leysen
A. Khalaili
Substitution
Israel
25 A. Khalaili
R. Schoofs
Belgium
17 R. Schoofs
K. Van de Perre
Substitution
Belgium
6 K. Van de Perre
G. da Silva Carvalho
Substitution
Brazil
11 G. da Silva Carvalho
M. Biondic
Substitution
Germany
9 M. Biondic
K. Rodríguez Cortéz
Substitution
Ecuador
13 K. Rodríguez Cortéz
A. El Hadj
Belgium
10 A. El Hadj
Pitch
I. Mirás Blanco
Spain
13 I. Mirás Blanco
T. Koudou
France
7 T. Koudou
J. Martinez Marsà
Spain
3 J. Martinez Marsà
R. Halhal
Morocco
2 R. Halhal
B. Antonio
Substitution
Zimbabwe
38 B. Antonio
T. St. Jago
Netherlands
33 T. St. Jago
F. Hammar
Sweden
6 F. Hammar
K. Mrabti
Substitution
Sweden
19 K. Mrabti
M. Servais
Belgium
17 M. Servais
B. Boersma
Substitution
28 B. Boersma
M. van Brederode
Substitution
Netherlands
9 M. van Brederode

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 7 · Championship Round
Stadium :
Stade Joseph Mariën
Capacity :
50093
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Erik Lambrechts
Jo De Weirdt
Q. Blaise
Anthony Letellier

Statistics

Possession
USG
46%
MEC
54%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
4 Big Chances Created 0
6 Shots 4
37 Dangerous attacks 58
43 Possession 57
3 Corners 3
7 Free kicks 11
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

13 Goal Attempts 5
19 Throwins 31
14 Dribble Attempts 19
3 Assists 0
5 Goal Kicks 10
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53
5 Successful Dribbles 10
5 Substitutions 4
70 Ball Safe 81

Attacking

95 Attacks 114
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

50 Long Passes 58
343 Successful Passes 447
422 Passes 547
21 Successful Long Passes 15
81 Successful Passes Percentage 82
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 26
11 Key Passes 3

Defensive

51 Duels Won 40
14 Interceptions 8
26 Tackles 15
1 Saves 3

Build-up

10 Total Crosses 19
4 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

11 Fouls 7
0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Erik Lambrechts

Starting XI ▼

37
Kjell Scherpen
Kjell Scherpen Goalkeeper
26
Ross Sykes
Ross Sykes Defender
29
Massiré Sylla
Massiré Sylla Defender
48
Fedde Leysen
Fedde Leysen Defender
6
Kamiel Van De Perre
Kamiel Van De Perre Midfielder
14
Ivan Pavlić
Ivan Pavlić
Midfielder78'
11
Guilherme Smith
Guilherme Smith Midfielder
27
Louis Patris
Louis Patris
Defender66'
17
Rob Schoofs
Rob Schoofs Midfielder
25
Anan Khalaili
Anan Khalaili Midfielder
22
Ousseynou Niang
Ousseynou Niang
Midfielder66'
9
Mateo Biondic
Mateo Biondic Attacker
7
Mohammed Fuseini
Mohammed Fuseini
Attacker78'
10
Anouar Ait El Hadj
Anouar Ait El Hadj Attacker
13
Kevin Rodríguez
Kevin Rodríguez Attacker
23
Besfort Zeneli
Besfort Zeneli
Midfielder33'
Referee : Erik Lambrechts

Starting XI ▼

13
Nacho Miras
Nacho Miras Goalkeeper
2
Redouane Halhal
Redouane Halhal Defender
3
José Marsà
José Marsà Defender
7
Thérence Koudou
Thérence Koudou Defender
33
Tommy St. Jago
Tommy St. Jago Defender
38
Bill Antonio
Bill Antonio Defender
29
Dikeni Salifou
Dikeni Salifou
Midfielder59'
6
Fredrik Hammar
Fredrik Hammar Midfielder
17
Mathis Servais
Mathis Servais Midfielder
19
Kerim Mrabti
Kerim Mrabti Midfielder
27
Keano Vanrafelghem
Keano Vanrafelghem
Attacker68'
9
Myron van Brederode
Myron van Brederode Attacker
14
Damir Milanovic
Damir Milanovic
Attacker79'
28
Bouke Boersma
Bouke Boersma Attacker
34
Mauro Lenaerts
Mauro Lenaerts
Attacker79'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Mohammed Fuseini
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
90+1'
79'
Event
Damir Milanovic → Myron van Brederode
9th Substitution
79'
Event
Mauro Lenaerts → Bouke Boersma
8th Substitution
Event
Mohammed Fuseini → Mateo Biondic
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Ivan Pavlić → Kamiel Van De Perre
7th Substitution
78'
77'
Event
Keano Vanrafelghem
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
68'
Event
Keano Vanrafelghem → Kerim Mrabti
5th Substitution
Event
Ousseynou Niang → Anan Khalaili
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Louis Patris → Guilherme Smith
4th Substitution
66'
Event
Anouar Ait El Hadj
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
61'
59'
Event
Dikeni Salifou → Bill Antonio
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Besfort Zeneli → Kevin Rodríguez
1st Substitution
33'
Event
Guilherme Smith
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
28'
Event
Mateo Biondic
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
11'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Mohammed Fuseini with his right foot finds the back of the net.
89
Attempt Attempt
Keano Vanrafelghem takes a right-footed shot but misses.
86
Attempt Attempt
Benito Raman takes a right-footed shot but misses.
81
Update Update
Ross Sykes takes a header, but it goes wide.
81
Attempt Attempt
Mohammed Fuseini's right-footed shot is saved.
79
Update Update
Benito Raman replaces Myron van Brederode.
79
Update Update
Mauro Lenaerts is on, and Bouke Boersma is off.
78
Update Update
Ivan Pavlic comes on for Kamiel Van De Perre.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Mohammed Fuseini comes on for Mateo Biondic.
73
Attempt Attempt
Mateo Biondic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
68
Update Update
Keano Vanrafelghem replaces Kerim Mrabti.
67
Attempt Attempt
Ross Sykes takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
67
Attempt Attempt
Anouar Ait El Hadj takes a right-footed shot but misses.
66
Update Update
Ousseynou Niang comes on for Anan Khalaili.
66
Substitution Substitution
Louis Patris is substituted for Guilherme Smith.
61
Attempt Attempt
Anouar Ait El Hadj scores with a left-footed shot.
59
Update Update
Dikeni-Rafid Salifou comes on for Bill Antonio.
49
Attempt Attempt
Anan Khalaili takes a left-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Mateo Biondic attempts a header but misses the shot.
45
Attempt Attempt
Mateo Biondic attempts a header but misses the shot.
33
Update Update
Besfort Zeneli comes on for Kevin Rodriguez.
28
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Guilherme Smith receives a yellow card.
27
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Rodriguez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
24
Attempt Attempt
Myron van Brederode takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
22
Attempt Attempt
Mateo Biondic's left-footed shot is blocked.
19
Attempt Attempt
Fredrik Hammar attempts a header but misses the shot.
15
Attempt Attempt
Anan Khalaili takes a right-footed shot but misses.
14
Attempt Attempt
Bill Antonio takes a right-footed shot but misses.
11
Attempt Attempt
Mateo Biondic scores with a left-footed shot.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Erik Lambrechts.

CONCLUSION

Union Saint-Gilloise's 3-0 triumph over Mechelen was a textbook display of superiority, overcoming lower possession to dominate proceedings and capitalize on chances. The significant structural deviation of 35.4% underscores their overperformance against a possession-heavy Mechelen side. With market alignment confirmed and efficiency in line, this result cements Union Saint-Gilloise as the stronger outfit. Lacking xG insights limits granular evaluation, but the clean sheet and second-half goals highlight defensive solidity and attacking prowess. No disruptions from red cards kept the game pure, pointing to sustained momentum for Union Saint-Gilloise.

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Mechelen preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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