Udinese vs Cremonese Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Dacia Arena Sun, 17 May - 6:45 PM
Serie A
Udinese UDI
0 Winner 1
Cremonese USC
Full Time Sun, 17 May 6:45 PM
Round 37 Regular Season
|
Goal
Jamie Vardy - 9'

CONTEXT

Udinese faced Cremonese in a fixture that concluded with a 0-1 scoreline. The halftime mark stood at 0-1 after the visitors opened the scoring. Udinese controlled 63 percent of possession yet generated just 0.37 expected goals. Cremonese operated with 37 percent possession and posted 0.5 expected goals. The outcome proved consistent with the expected goals differential of minus 0.13. No red cards were shown to either side. Cremonese recorded a significant deviation of 69.4 percent from pre-match projections while the stronger side according to underlying metrics failed to convert territorial dominance into goals. The efficiency shift remained in line with observed patterns throughout the contest.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Cremonese posted a significant 69.4 percent deviation from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift stayed in line with performance metrics across both sides.
  • xG alignment: The final result aligned with expected goals as Cremonese claimed the win.
  • Market alignment: The outcome did not align with market projections for the fixture.
  • xG expectations: Udinese finished with 0.37 expected goals against Cremonese 0.5.
  • Event impact: Cremonese scored in the first half and held the 0-1 lead to the end.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so the match experienced zero distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

G. Manganiello

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Berti

1st Assistant

Italy

V. Vecchi

2nd Assistant

Italy

M. Ferrieri Caputi

4th Official

Italy

League averages

Serie A Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.85
Yellow cards / match 3.2
Red cards / match 0.16
Penalties / match 0.17
Udinese K. Runjaic
K. Runjaic
VS
Cremonese M. Giampaolo
M. Giampaolo
1.4
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.68
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cagliari Rank: 71 W
Torino Rank: 75 W
Lazio Rank: 80 D
Parma Rank: 72 L
AC Milan Rank: 84 W
Como Rank: 84 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Pisa Rank: 63 W
Lazio Rank: 81 L
Napoli Rank: 85 L
Torino Rank: 74 D
Cagliari Rank: 71 L
Bologna Rank: 79 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 2 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Udinese
39.73%
Draw
29.65%
Away Cremonese
30.62%

Movement

Changes since opening
Udinese
+39.52%
Draw
+23.24%
Cremonese
-62.75%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
76.02
57.65
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Udinese
Cremonese
Power Score
76.02
57.65
League Position
10
18
Global Rank
96
244

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Udinese — Opponent-weighted form score
Cremonese — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Udinese Cremonese

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Udinese

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Cremonese

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Udinese ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cremonese
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
20.63
21.89
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.89
20.63
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Udinese -0.13 Efficiency Index
vs
Cremonese +0.13 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Udinese
Cremonese
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Udinese
vs
Cremonese
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Udinese Cremonese
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Udinese Cremonese
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Udinese
Cremonese
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Udinese
vs
Cremonese
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Udinese Cremonese
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Udinese 0.17
Cremonese 0.32
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Udinese Cremonese
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Udinese 0.05
Cremonese 0.00
Udinese
Cremonese
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • UDI had peak pressure around 95'.
  • USC started the game with stronger pressure.
UDI Pressure USC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: UDI reached the top pressure at 95' (94.32).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Udinese UDI Home
3 matches
Cremonese USC Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
2
Draws
2
0
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
4
+3
Goal Difference
-3

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T09:06:19+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
M. Okoye
Nigeria
40 M. Okoye
T. Kristensen
Denmark
31 T. Kristensen
C. Kabasele
Substitution
Belgium
27 C. Kabasele
O. Solet Bomawoko
France
28 O. Solet Bomawoko
J. Arizala
Substitution
Colombia
20 J. Arizala
L. Miller
Substitution
Scotland
38 L. Miller
J. Karlström
Sweden
8 (C) J. Karlström
A. Atta
France
14 A. Atta
H. Kamara
Substitution
Gambia
11 H. Kamara
A. Buksa
Poland
18 A. Buksa
K. Davis
Substitution
England
9 K. Davis
Pitch
E. Audero Mulyadi
Italy
1 E. Audero Mulyadi
S. Luperto
Italy
5 S. Luperto
M. Bianchetti
Italy
15 (C) M. Bianchetti
F. Terracciano
Italy
24 F. Terracciano
G. Pezzella
Italy
3 G. Pezzella
Y. Maleh
Substitution
Morocco
29 Y. Maleh
A. Grassi
Italy
33 A. Grassi
M. Thorsby
Substitution
Norway
2 M. Thorsby
T. Barbieri
Substitution
Italy
4 T. Barbieri
J. Vardy
Substitution
England
10 J. Vardy
F. Bonazzoli
Substitution
Italy
90 F. Bonazzoli

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Dacia Arena
Capacity :
25132
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Gianluca Manganiello
Alessio Berti
Valerio Vecchi
Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi

Statistics

Possession
UDI
61%
USC
39%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 1
2 Shots 4
60 Dangerous attacks 22
63 Possession 37
5 Corners 5
9 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

14 Dribble Attempts 3
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 0
19 Throwins 19
3 Goal Kicks 11
27 Successful Headers 24
6 Successful Dribbles 0
6 Goal Attempts 6
74 Ball Safe 76
5 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 2

Attacking

122 Attacks 82

Possession

6 Key Passes 1
53 Long Passes 62
33 Successful Long Passes 25
62 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40
452 Successful Passes 216
525 Passes 305
86 Successful Passes Percentage 71

Defensive

5 Tackles 11
3 Saves 2
46 Duels Won 45
6 Interceptions 9

Build-up

27 Total Crosses 16
4 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

10 Fouls 9
4 Offsides 5

Lineup

Referee : Gianluca Manganiello

Starting XI ▼

40
Maduka Okoye
Maduka Okoye Goalkeeper
6.74
27
Christian Kabasele
Christian Kabasele Defender
5.94
13
Nicolò Bertola
Nicolò Bertola
Defender46'
6.94
28
Oumar Solet
Oumar Solet Defender
7.94
31
Thomas Kristensen
Thomas Kristensen Defender
7.07
8
Jesper Karlström
Jesper Karlström (C) Midfielder
6.77
11
Hassane Kamara
Hassane Kamara Midfielder
6.56
29
Abdoulaye Camara
Abdoulaye Camara
Midfielder79'
6.72
14
Arthur Atta
Arthur Atta Midfielder
6.75
20
Juan Arizala
Juan Arizala Midfielder
6.51
33
Jordan Zemura
Jordan Zemura
Defender60'
6.4
38
Lennon Miller
Lennon Miller Midfielder
6.7
15
Vakoun Bayo
Vakoun Bayo
Attacker71'
6.43
9
Keinan Davis
Keinan Davis Attacker
6.87
7
Idrissa Gueye
Idrissa Gueye
Attacker71'
6.79
18
Adam Buksa
Adam Buksa Attacker
6.49
Referee : Gianluca Manganiello

Starting XI ▼

1
Emil Audero
Emil Audero Goalkeeper
7.31
5
Sebastiano Luperto
Sebastiano Luperto Defender
7.02
15
Matteo Bianchetti
Matteo Bianchetti (C) Defender
6.89
24
Filippo Terracciano
Filippo Terracciano Defender
6.75
2
Morten Thorsby
Morten Thorsby Midfielder
6.73
27
Jari Vandeputte
Jari Vandeputte
Midfielder82'
6.37
3
Giuseppe Pezzella
Giuseppe Pezzella Midfielder
6.46
4
Tommaso Barbieri
Tommaso Barbieri Midfielder
6.21
22
Romano Floriani Mussolini
Romano Floriani Mussolini
Defender60'
6.39
29
Youssef Maleh
Youssef Maleh Midfielder
6.94
18
Michele Collocolo
Michele Collocolo
Midfielder82'
6.51
33
Alberto Grassi
Alberto Grassi Midfielder
6.96
10
Jamie Vardy
Jamie Vardy Attacker
7.29
9
Milan Djuric
Milan Djuric
Attacker88'
90
Federico Bonazzoli
Federico Bonazzoli Attacker
7.06
77
David Okereke
David Okereke
Attacker60'
6.4

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Alberto Grassi
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
88'
Event
Milan Djuric → Jamie Vardy
10th Substitution
82'
Event
Michele Collocolo → Youssef Maleh
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Jari Vandeputte → Morten Thorsby
9th Substitution
Event
Abdoulaye Camara → Hassane Kamara
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Vakoun Bayo → Lennon Miller
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Idrissa Gueye → Keinan Davis
6th Substitution
71'
Event
Hassane Kamara
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
67'
Event
Hassane Kamara
Red card cancelled
66'
Event
Jordan Zemura → Juan Arizala
4th Substitution
60'
60'
Event
Romano Floriani Mussolini → Tommaso Barbieri
2nd Substitution
60'
Event
David Okereke → Federico Bonazzoli
3rd Substitution
55'
Event
Tommaso Barbieri
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
51'
Event
Federico Bonazzoli
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Nicolò Bertola → Christian Kabasele
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Christian Kabasele
Penalty disallowed
27'
9'
Event
Jamie Vardy
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alberto Grassi receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Arthur Atta takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Oumar Solet's header shot misses the target.
90
Attempt Attempt
Oumar Solet's right-footed shot is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Nicolò Bertola takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
89
Attempt Attempt
Vakoun Issouf Bayo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
88
Update Update
Milan Djuric comes on for Jamie Vardy.
83
Attempt Attempt
Arthur Atta takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
82
Update Update
Jari Vandeputte comes on for Morten Thorsby.
82
Update Update
Michele Collocolo is on, and Youssef Maleh is off.
73
Attempt Attempt
Idrissa Gueye attempted a header but missed the shot.
71
Update Update
Idrissa Gueye is on, and Keinan Davis is off.
71
Update Update
Vakoun Issouf Bayo is on, and Lennon Miller is off.
67
Red Card Red Card Important
The VAR decision has overturned the red card for Hassane Kamara.
66
Red Card Red Card Important
Hassane Kamara receives a red card.
66
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Hassane Kamara receives a yellow card.
61
Update Update
Jordan Zemura is on, and Juan Arizala is off.
60
Update Update
Romano Floriani replaces Tommaso Barbieri.
60
Update Update
David Okereke is on, and Federico Bonazzoli is off.
55
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tommaso Barbieri receives a yellow card.
53
Attempt Attempt
Jesper Karlstrom takes a right-footed shot but misses.
51
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Federico Bonazzoli receives a yellow card.
46
Update Update
Nicolò Bertola comes on for Christian Kabasele.
44
Attempt Attempt
Keinan Davis takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
36
Attempt Attempt
Sebastiano Luperto takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
25
Update Update
Oumar Solet's header is off target.
21
Attempt Attempt
Youssef Maleh takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
13
Attempt Attempt
Youssef Maleh takes a left-footed shot but misses.
9
Attempt Attempt
Jamie Vardy takes a right-footed shot and scores.
9
Attempt Attempt
Federico Bonazzoli's left-footed shot is saved.
5
Attempt Attempt
Giuseppe Pezzella takes a left-footed shot but misses.
4
Attempt Attempt
Alberto Grassi's right-footed shot is blocked.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Gianluca Manganiello.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Udinese 0-1 Cremonese. Structural assessment: Cremonese exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Udinese vs Cremonese preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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