Tunisia vs Japan Prediction, Preview and Stats

2026 World Cup, World
Monterrey Stadium Sun, 21 Jun - 4:00 AM
World Cup
Tunisia TUN
0 Winner 4
Japan JPN
Full Time Sun, 21 Jun 4:00 AM
Round 2 Group Stage
|
Goal
Ayase Ueda - 83', 31'
Junya Ito - 69'
Daichi Kamada - 4'

CONTEXT

Japan secured a 0-4 victory over Tunisia with a halftime score of 0-2. Tunisia held 38 percent possession while Japan controlled 62 percent. Expected goals stood at 0.05 for Tunisia and 1.99 for Japan producing a differential of minus 1.94. No red cards were shown to either side. The stronger team designation went to Tunisia yet the result aligned with the expected goals data. Pre-match deviation measured 4.6 percent at a minimal level with Japan as the deviation team. Market alignment held true and efficiency shift remained in line with underlying metrics. The match produced no second half adjustments and concluded without knockout tie implications.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Tunisia 0-4 Japan. Japan showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with the underlying performance metrics throughout the match.
  • xG alignment: Outcome remained consistent with expected goals as Japan posted 1.99 against Tunisia's 0.05.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment held true with the final result matching the pre-match indicators.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals projected a clear advantage for Japan at 1.99 compared to Tunisia at 0.05.
  • Event impact: No events altered the match flow as second half adjustments remained empty.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion stayed absent with zero red cards issued to either team.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

I. Kovacs

Romania 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 4 0.36
Fouls / match 30.4
Yellow cards / match 4
Red cards / match 0.36
Penalties / match 0.36

Other match officials

M. Marica

1st Assistant

Romania

F. Tunyogi

2nd Assistant

Romania

J. Calderón

4th Official

Costa Rica

League averages

World Cup Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 11.56
Yellow cards / match 1.29
Red cards / match 0.11
Penalties / match 0.08
Tunisia H. Renard
H. Renard
VS
Japan H. Moriyasu
H. Moriyasu
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sweden Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Netherlands Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Tunisia
0.94%
Draw
3.67%
Away Japan
95.39%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
31.48
27.41
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Tunisia
Japan
Power Score
31.48
27.41
League Position
4
2
Global Rank
44
18

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Tunisia — Opponent-weighted form score
Japan — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Tunisia Japan

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Tunisia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Japan

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Tunisia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Japan
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
8.03
20.65
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.65
8.03
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Tunisia -1.13 Efficiency Index
vs
Japan +1.13 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Tunisia
Japan
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Tunisia
vs
Japan
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Tunisia Japan
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
99%
10%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.05 vs -0.19
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Tunisia Japan
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
10%
99%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.19 vs -0.05
Tunisia
Japan
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Tunisia
vs
Japan
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Tunisia Japan
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Tunisia 0.10
Japan 0.31
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Tunisia Japan
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Tunisia 0.11
Japan 0.00
Tunisia
Japan
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • JPN had peak pressure around 13'.
  • JPN started the game with stronger pressure.
TUN Pressure JPN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: JPN reached the top pressure at 13' (93.36).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Tunisia TUN Home
0 matches
Japan JPN Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-06-22T00:00:24+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
A. Dahmen
Tunisia
16 A. Dahmen
D. Bronn
Substitution
Tunisia
6 D. Bronn
M. Talbi
Tunisia
3 M. Talbi
O. Rekik
Tunisia
4 O. Rekik
Y. Valery
Tunisia
20 Y. Valery
A. Slimane
Tunisia
25 A. Slimane
E. Skhiri
Substitution
Tunisia
17 (C) E. Skhiri
A. Abdi
Substitution
Tunisia
2 A. Abdi
E. Saad
Substitution
Tunisia
8 E. Saad
H. Mejbri
Tunisia
10 H. Mejbri
S. Tounekti
Substitution
Tunisia
26 S. Tounekti
Pitch
Z. Suzuki
Japan
1 Z. Suzuki
H. Ito
Japan
21 H. Ito
K. Itakura
Japan
4 (C) K. Itakura
T. Tomiyasu
Substitution
Japan
22 T. Tomiyasu
K. Nakamura
Substitution
Japan
13 K. Nakamura
A. Tanaka
Japan
7 A. Tanaka
K. Sano
Japan
24 K. Sano
R. Doan
Substitution
Japan
10 R. Doan
D. Kamada
Substitution
Japan
15 D. Kamada
J. Ito
Japan
14 J. Ito
A. Ueda
Substitution
Japan
18 A. Ueda

General Information

Date & Time :
Jun 21, 2026, 04:00 AM
Competition :
2026 World Cup, World · Round 2 · Group Stage
Stadium :
Monterrey Stadium
Capacity :
53500
Attendance :
51243
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Istvan Kovacs
Mihai Marius Marica
Ferencz Tunyogi
Juan Calderón

Statistics

Possession
TUN
40%
JPN
60%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 4
0 Big Chances Created 3
1 Shots 3
21 Dangerous attacks 36
38 Possession 62
3 Corners 5
16 Free kicks 9

Match Overview

4 Goal Kicks 5
6 Substitutions 5
29 Throwins 23
4 Successful Headers 14
0 Assists 4
6 Dribble Attempts 15
2 Successful Dribbles 4
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 27

Attacking

78 Attacks 112
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

56 Long Passes 32
353 Passes 582
284 Successful Passes 521
80 Successful Passes Percentage 90
16 Successful Long Passes 19
29 Successful Long Passes Percentage 59

Defensive

1 Saves 0
18 Tackles 18
14 Interceptions 6
38 Duels Won 43

Build-up

10 Total Crosses 11
2 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
8 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Istvan Kovacs

Starting XI ▼

16
Aymen Dahmen
Aymen Dahmen Goalkeeper
5.73
3
Montassar Talbi
Montassar Talbi Defender
6.09
4
Omar Rekik
Omar Rekik Defender
6.43
6
Dylan Bronn
Dylan Bronn Defender
6.26
21
Mohamed Amine Ben Hamida
Mohamed Amine Ben Hamida
Defender46'
6.39
2
Ali Abdi
Ali Abdi Midfielder
6.56
7
Elias Achouri
Elias Achouri
Midfielder90+1'
17
Ellyes Skhiri
Ellyes Skhiri (C) Midfielder
5.72
13
Rani Khedira
Rani Khedira
Midfielder90+1'
20
Yan Valery
Yan Valery Midfielder
6.51
25
Anis Slimane
Anis Slimane Midfielder
6.57
8
Elias Saad
Elias Saad Attacker
6.24
11
Ismaël Gharbi
Ismaël Gharbi
Attacker46'
6.29
10
Hannibal
Hannibal Attacker
6.66
26
Sebastian Tounekti
Sebastian Tounekti Attacker
6.36
19
Firas Chaouat
Firas Chaouat
Attacker64'
6.38
Referee : Istvan Kovacs

Starting XI ▼

1
Zion Suzuki
Zion Suzuki Goalkeeper
6.9
4
Ko Itakura
Ko Itakura (C) Defender
7.7
21
Hiroki Ito
Hiroki Ito Defender
7.25
22
Takehiro Tomiyasu
Takehiro Tomiyasu Defender
7.21
20
Ayumu Seko
Ayumu Seko
Defender79'
6.65
7
Ao Tanaka
Ao Tanaka Midfielder
7.36
10
Ritsu Doan
Ritsu Doan Midfielder
6.59
2
Yukinari Sugawara
Yukinari Sugawara
Defender74'
6.43
13
Keito Nakamura
Keito Nakamura Midfielder
7.48
17
Yuito Suzuki
Yuito Suzuki
Midfielder79'
6.51
24
Kaishu Sano
Kaishu Sano Midfielder
7.37
14
Junya Ito
Junya Ito Attacker
6.93
15
Daichi Kamada
Daichi Kamada Attacker
7.2
25
Junnosuke Suzuki
Junnosuke Suzuki
Defender73'
6.64
18
Ayase Ueda
Ayase Ueda Attacker
2
9.52
9
Keisuke Goto
Keisuke Goto
Attacker84'
6.72

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Elias Achouri → Ali Abdi
9th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Rani Khedira → Ellyes Skhiri
10th Substitution
90+1'
84'
Event
Keisuke Goto → Ayase Ueda
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Ayase Ueda
Header / 4th Goal
79'
Event
Ayumu Seko → Takehiro Tomiyasu
6th Substitution
79'
Event
Yuito Suzuki → Keito Nakamura
7th Substitution
74'
Event
Yukinari Sugawara → Ritsu Doan
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Junnosuke Suzuki → Daichi Kamada
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Junya Ito
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Firas Chaouat → Sebastian Tounekti
3rd Substitution
64'
Event
Ismaël Gharbi → Elias Saad
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Mohamed Amine Ben Hamida → Dylan Bronn
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
31'
Event
Ayase Ueda
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
4'
Event
Daichi Kamada
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 6 minutes of added time.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Tunisia: Rani Khedira comes on for Ellyes Skhiri.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Ayumu Seko of Japan.
90
Update Update
Firas Chaouat from Tunisia is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Tunisia: Elias Achouri comes on for Ali Abdi.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Kaishu Sano of Japan.
90
Update Update
Hannibal Mejbri from Tunisia wins a free kick on the left wing.
90
Update Update
Keisuke Goto from Japan is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Yan Valery of Tunisia.
87
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
85
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Hannibal Mejbri from Tunisia.
85
Attempt Attempt
Junya Ito's right-footed shot from the left side of the box for Japan is blocked.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Japan: Keisuke Goto comes on for Ayase Ueda.
83
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ayase Ueda scores for Japan with a header from very close range. The score is now Tunisia 0, Japan 4.
80
Update Update
Hannibal Mejbri from Tunisia wins a free kick on the right wing.
80
Update Update
Foul committed by Ao Tanaka of Japan.
80
Update Update
Hannibal Mejbri from Tunisia wins a free kick in the defensive half.
80
Update Update
Hiroki Ito commits a foul for Japan.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Japan: Yuito Suzuki comes on for Keito Nakamura.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Japan: Ayumu Seko comes on for Takehiro Tomiyasu.
78
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Japan after a concession by Mohamed Amine Ben Hmida.
76
Update Update
Omar Rekik is caught offside for Tunisia.
76
Update Update
Keito Nakamura is caught offside for Japan.
75
Corner Corner
Tunisia is awarded a corner after Junnosuke Suzuki concedes.
75
Attempt Attempt
Ismaël Gharbi's left-footed shot from the left side of the box for Tunisia is blocked.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Tunisia after a concession by Junya Ito.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Japan: Yukinari Sugawara comes on for Ritsu Doan.
73
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Japan: Junnosuke Suzuki comes on for Daichi Kamada.
70
Attempt Attempt
Goal! Japan leads Tunisia 3-0 as Junya Ito scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
69
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Firas Chaouat from Tunisia is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
67
Attempt Attempt
Keito Nakamura's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Daichi Kamada provided the assist.
67
Update Update
Keito Nakamura commits a foul for Japan.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Tunisia: Firas Chaouat comes on for Sebastian Tounekti.
64
Attempt Attempt
Ayase Ueda's right-footed shot from outside the box for Japan is blocked.
63
Update Update
Foul committed by Hannibal Mejbri of Tunisia.
63
Corner Corner
Japan wins a corner after Montassar Talbi concedes.
62
Update Update
Foul committed by Ali Abdi of Tunisia.
62
Update Update
Kaishu Sano wins a free kick for Japan in the defensive half.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Japan after a concession by Mohamed Amine Ben Hmida.
58
Update Update
Ritsu Doan from Japan is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
57
Update Update
Ismaël Gharbi from Tunisia is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
55
Update Update
Ismaël Gharbi from Tunisia is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
55
Update Update
Hiroki Ito commits a foul for Japan.
49
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Sebastian Tounekti from Tunisia takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the box but misses to the left.
49
Update Update
Foul committed by Ao Tanaka of Japan.
48
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Ao Tanaka from Japan, who took a right-footed shot from outside the box.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Tunisia: Ismaël Gharbi comes on for Elias Saad.
46
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Tunisia 0, Japan 2.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Tunisia: Mohamed Amine Ben Hmida comes on for Dylan Bronn.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 4 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
Zion Suzuki wins a free kick for Japan in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
Hannibal Mejbri commits a foul for Tunisia.
45
Update Update
Ko Itakura commits a foul for Japan.
45
Update Update
Elias Saad from Tunisia is awarded a free kick in the attacking half.
43
Update Update
Daichi Kamada from Japan is awarded a free kick in the attacking half.
43
Update Update
Dylan Bronn commits a foul for Tunisia.
40
Update Update
Ritsu Doan commits a foul for Japan.
40
Update Update
Ali Abdi from Tunisia is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
36
Update Update
Foul committed by Kaishu Sano of Japan.
36
Update Update
Hannibal Mejbri wins a free kick for Tunisia in the attacking half.
35
Update Update
Foul committed by Hannibal Mejbri of Tunisia.
35
Update Update
Junya Ito wins a free kick for Japan in the defensive half.
31
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Japan leads 2-0 after Ayase Ueda scores with a right-footed shot from outside the box following a fast break.
27
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
24
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
22
Update Update
Foul committed by Takehiro Tomiyasu of Japan.
22
Update Update
Hannibal Mejbri of Tunisia is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
20
Update Update
Foul committed by Junya Ito of Japan.
20
Update Update
Aymen Dahmen from Tunisia is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
18
Update Update
Takehiro Tomiyasu commits a foul for Japan.
18
Update Update
Hannibal Mejbri from Tunisia is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Tunisia after a concession by Ko Itakura.
14
Update Update
Foul committed by Ayase Ueda of Japan.
14
Update Update
Montassar Talbi wins a free kick for Tunisia in the defensive half.
12
Update Update
Ritsu Doan from Japan is awarded a free kick on the right wing.
12
Update Update
Elias Saad commits a foul for Tunisia.
10
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Japan after Aymen Dahmen concedes.
10
Corner Corner
Takehiro Tomiyasu's right-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box is saved in the bottom right corner by Aymen Dahmen.
10
Corner Corner
Ayase Ueda's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is saved in the bottom right corner by Aymen Dahmen.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Japan after Dylan Bronn concedes.
8
Update Update
Foul committed by Takehiro Tomiyasu of Japan.
8
Update Update
Hannibal Mejbri wins a free kick for Tunisia in the defensive half.
6
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Ayase Ueda (Japan) took a left-footed shot from the center of the box.
4
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Ayase Ueda takes a left-footed shot but misses.
3
Attempt Attempt
Daichi Kamada takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Istvan Kovacs.
1
Attempt Attempt
Hannibal Mejbri takes a right-footed shot but misses.
1
Update Update
Goal! The score is now 0-1.

CONCLUSION

The 0-4 result reflected Japan's dominance in possession and chance creation against Tunisia. Expected goals accurately forecasted the margin while the halftime lead of two goals set the platform for the second half extension. Tunisia generated minimal threat throughout and finished with an expected goals total of just 0.05. Japan maintained control without disciplinary issues and converted opportunities efficiently. The absence of red cards ensured no artificial distortion to the scoreline. Overall metrics confirmed the outcome as consistent with pre-match data and expected performance levels. The match concluded with Japan as clear winners on both the scoreboard and underlying numbers.

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