TSG Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
PreZero Arena Sat, 9 May - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
TSG Hoffenheim TSG
1 Winner 0
Werder Bremen SVW
Full Time Sat, 9 May 1:30 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Bazoumana Touré - 26'
Goal
|
|
Red Card Yukinari Sugawara 5'

CONTEXT

TSG Hoffenheim defeated Werder Bremen 1-0 in a match they dominated from start to finish. The home side took the lead in the first half and held it at halftime with a 1-0 scoreline, never looking back. Hoffenheim commanded 72% possession compared to Bremen's 28%, showcasing superior control and territorial advantage. Werder Bremen suffered a red card, which shifted the game's balance decisively in the hosts' favor during the second half. Identified as the stronger team beforehand, Hoffenheim's victory reflected minimal structural deviation of 3.9%. Efficiency metrics stayed in line with expectations, and the outcome aligned with market assessments. Without xG data available, precise chance creation evaluation remains limited. The red card introduced notable distortion, amplifying Hoffenheim's dominance post-interval. This result underscores Hoffenheim's tactical discipline and ability to capitalize on numerical superiority.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The match result exhibited minimal structural deviation of 3.9% in favor of TSG Hoffenheim.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be determined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were unassessable without underlying data.
  • Event impact: Werder Bremen's red card significantly altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion primarily influenced second-half adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Storks

Germany 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

Thorben Siewer

1st Assistant

F. Wagner

4th Official

Germany

N. Kimmeyer

2nd Assistant

Germany

League averages

Bundesliga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 16.84
Yellow cards / match 3.08
Red cards / match 0.19
Penalties / match 0.29
TSG Hoffenheim C. Ilzer
C. Ilzer
VS
Werder Bremen D. Thioune
D. Thioune
1.77
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.77
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
VfB Stuttgart Rank: 85 D
Hamburger SV Rank: 75 W
Borussia Dortmund Rank: 90 W
FC Augsburg Rank: 79 D
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: 81 L
RB Leipzig Rank: 87 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Augsburg Rank: 77 L
VfB Stuttgart Rank: 85 D
Hamburger SV Rank: 76 W
FC Köln Rank: 76 L
RB Leipzig Rank: 87 L
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: 75 W
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 10 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home TSG Hoffenheim
96.11%
Draw
3.7%
Away Werder Bremen
0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
TSG Hoffenheim
+2%
Draw
-1.95%
Werder Bremen
-0.05%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
84.91
75.49
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
TSG Hoffenheim
Werder Bremen
Power Score
84.91
75.49
League Position
5
15
Global Rank
37
109

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
TSG Hoffenheim — Opponent-weighted form score
Werder Bremen — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) TSG Hoffenheim Werder Bremen

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

TSG Hoffenheim

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Werder Bremen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

TSG Hoffenheim ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Werder Bremen
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.57
41.96
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
41.96
27.57
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
TSG Hoffenheim -1.26 Efficiency Index
vs
Werder Bremen +1.26 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
TSG Hoffenheim
Werder Bremen
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

TSG Hoffenheim ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Werder Bremen
Created Set-piece attacking threat
TSG Hoffenheim Werder Bremen
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
TSG Hoffenheim Werder Bremen
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
TSG Hoffenheim
Werder Bremen
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
TSG Hoffenheim
vs
Werder Bremen
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
TSG Hoffenheim Werder Bremen
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
TSG Hoffenheim 0.15
Werder Bremen 0.73
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
TSG Hoffenheim Werder Bremen
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
TSG Hoffenheim 0.00
Werder Bremen 0.01
TSG Hoffenheim
Werder Bremen
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • TSG had peak pressure around 15'.
  • TSG started the game with stronger pressure.
TSG Pressure SVW Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: TSG reached the top pressure at 15' (94.89).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 33 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

TSG Hoffenheim TSG Home
33 matches
Werder Bremen SVW Away
Match Record
11
Wins
12
10
Draws
10
12
Losses
11
Goals
59
Goals Scored
55
55
Goals Conceded
59
+4
Goal Difference
-4

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T00:02:24+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
O. Baumann
Germany
1 O. Baumann
V. Coufal
Czech Republic
34 V. Coufal
O. Kabak
Türkiye
5 O. Kabak
A. Hajdari
Switzerland
21 A. Hajdari
B. Fernandes da Silva Junior
Substitution
Brazil
13 B. Fernandes da Silva Junior
L. Avdullahu
Switzerland
7 L. Avdullahu
W. Burger
Netherlands
18 W. Burger
A. Kramarić
Substitution
Croatia
27 A. Kramarić
F. Asllani
Substitution
Germany
11 F. Asllani
B. Touré
Substitution
Ivory Coast
29 B. Touré
T. Lemperle
Substitution
Germany
19 T. Lemperle
Pitch
M. Backhaus
Germany
30 M. Backhaus
O. Deman
Belgium
2 O. Deman
M. Friedl
Austria
32 M. Friedl
A. Pieper
Germany
5 A. Pieper
Y. Sugawara
Japan
3 Y. Sugawara
S. Lynen
Belgium
14 S. Lynen
R. Schmid
Substitution
Austria
20 R. Schmid
C. Puertas
Spain
18 C. Puertas
J. Stage
Substitution
Denmark
6 J. Stage
J. Njinmah
Germany
11 J. Njinmah
S. Musah
Substitution
Germany
29 S. Musah

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
PreZero Arena
Capacity :
30150
Attendance :
28128
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Thorben Siewer
Felix Wagner
Nikolai Kimmeyer
Sören Storks

Statistics

Possession
TSG
66%
SVW
34%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 2
7 Shots 6
97 Dangerous attacks 15
72 Possession 28
8 Corners 3
3 Free kicks 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

24 Throwins 18
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 22
5 Substitutions 4
75 Ball Safe 108
10 Successful Headers 19
15 Dribble Attempts 9
9 Goal Kicks 19
8 Successful Dribbles 2
1 Assists 0
0 Injuries 3
13 Goal Attempts 8
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

133 Attacks 50
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

87 Successful Passes Percentage 65
12 Key Passes 10
597 Successful Passes 173
685 Passes 268
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39
20 Successful Long Passes 27
48 Long Passes 70

Defensive

30 Duels Won 41
9 Tackles 16
17 Interceptions 20
2 Saves 3

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 1
34 Total Crosses 9

Discipline

4 Fouls 3

Lineup

Referee : Sören Storks

Starting XI ▼

1
Oliver Baumann
Oliver Baumann Goalkeeper
5
Ozan Kabak
Ozan Kabak Defender
13
Bernardo
Bernardo Defender
2
Robin Hranac
Robin Hranac
Defender71'
21
Albian Hajdari
Albian Hajdari Defender
34
Vladimír Coufal
Vladimír Coufal Defender
7
Leon Avdullahu
Leon Avdullahu Midfielder
11
Fisnik Asllani
Fisnik Asllani Midfielder
23
Adam Hlozek
Adam Hlozek
Attacker89'
18
Wouter Burger
Wouter Burger Midfielder
27
Andrej Kramaric
Andrej Kramaric Midfielder
6
Grischa Prömel
Grischa Prömel
Midfielder89'
29
Bazoumana Touré
Bazoumana Touré Midfielder
22
Alexander Prass
Alexander Prass
Defender57'
19
Tim Lemperle
Tim Lemperle Attacker
20
Cole Campbell
Cole Campbell
Attacker71'
Referee : Sören Storks

Starting XI ▼

30
Mio Backhaus
Mio Backhaus Goalkeeper
2
Olivier Deman
Olivier Deman Defender
3
Yukinari Sugawara
Yukinari Sugawara Defender
5
Amos Pieper
Amos Pieper Defender
32
Marco Friedl
Marco Friedl Defender
6
Jens Stage
Jens Stage Midfielder
7
Samuel Mbangula
Samuel Mbangula
Attacker71'
11
Justin Njinmah
Justin Njinmah Midfielder
14
Senne Lynen
Senne Lynen Midfielder
18
Cameron Puertas
Cameron Puertas Midfielder
20
Romano Schmid
Romano Schmid Midfielder
17
Marco Grüll
Marco Grüll
Attacker71'
29
Salim Musah
Salim Musah Attacker
23
Isaac Schmidt
Isaac Schmidt
Defender12'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Adam Hlozek → Fisnik Asllani
8th Substitution
89'
Event
Grischa Prömel → Andrej Kramaric
9th Substitution
89'
88'
Event
Justin Njinmah
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
88'
Event
Daniel Thioune
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
80'
Event
Maximilian Wöber → Isaac Schmidt
7th Substitution
Event
Robin Hranac → Bernardo
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Cole Campbell → Tim Lemperle
3rd Substitution
71'
71'
Event
Samuel Mbangula → Jens Stage
6th Substitution
71'
Event
Marco Grüll → Romano Schmid
4th Substitution
Event
Bernardo
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
66'
Event
Alexander Prass → Bazoumana Touré
2nd Substitution
57'
1ST-HALF
41'
Event
Cameron Puertas
Time wasting / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Bazoumana Touré
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
26'
12'
Event
Isaac Schmidt → Salim Musah
1st Substitution
5'
Event
Yukinari Sugawara
Foul / 1st Redcard
4'
Event
Yukinari Sugawara
Card adjusted

Match Commentary

80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for SV Werder Bremen: Max Wöber replaces Isaac Schmidt due to injury.
80
Attempt Attempt
Cole Campbell from TSG Hoffenheim had a header from the center of the box that was close but missed the target.
78
Attempt Attempt
Albian Hajdari's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Andrej Kramaric.
73
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Isaac Schmidt from SV Werder Bremen.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for TSG Hoffenheim: Robin Hranác replaces Bernardo.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for TSG Hoffenheim: Cole Campbell replaces Tim Lemperle.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for SV Werder Bremen: Samuel Mbangula replaces Jens Stage.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for SV Werder Bremen: Marco Grüll replaces Romano Schmid.
68
Attempt Attempt
Cameron Puertas from SV Werder Bremen misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box. The shot goes high and wide to the right from a free kick.
66
Update Update
Jens Stage from SV Werder Bremen won a free kick in an attacking position.
66
Update Update
Foul committed by Bernardo of TSG Hoffenheim.
66
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Bernardo from TSG Hoffenheim receives a yellow card for a foul.
63
Attempt Attempt
Ozan Kabak from TSG Hoffenheim had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box but sending it wide to the left. The assist came from Leon Avdullahu.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to TSG Hoffenheim after Mio Backhaus concedes.
61
Attempt Attempt
Ozan Kabak's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
61
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Alexander Prass of TSG Hoffenheim takes a left-footed shot from outside the box, but Mio Backhaus of SV Werder Bremen saves it in the top right corner. The assist comes from Wouter Burger.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to TSG Hoffenheim after Olivier Deman concedes.
57
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for TSG Hoffenheim: Alexander Prass replaces Bazoumana Touré.
55
Corner Corner
SV Werder Bremen win a corner after Albian Hajdari concedes.
55
Attempt Attempt
Justin Njinmah's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Romano Schmid, who provided it with a header.
53
Attempt Attempt
Justin Njinmah's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. Senne Lynen provided the assist.
51
Update Update
Fouled by Marco Friedl of SV Werder Bremen.
51
Update Update
Fisnik Asllani from TSG Hoffenheim won a free kick in defense.
50
Update Update
New attacking attempt. Justin Njinmah of SV Werder Bremen shoots with his right foot from the left side of the box, but Oliver Baumann, the goalkeeper for TSG Hoffenheim, saves it in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Olivier Deman with a through ball.
49
Attempt Attempt
Justin Njinmah from SV Werder Bremen had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but it went high and wide to the right. The assist came from Romano Schmid after a fast break.
46
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Tim Lemperle from TSG Hoffenheim heads the ball from the center of the box, but it goes just left of the target. The assist comes from Vladimír Coufal's cross.
45
Attempt Attempt
Justin Njinmah's shot for SV Werder Bremen from the left side of the box is blocked. Cameron Puertas provided the assist.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to TSG Hoffenheim after being conceded by Isaac Schmidt.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to TSG Hoffenheim after Amos Pieper concedes.
45
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Tim Lemperle from TSG Hoffenheim takes a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved in the left corner by Mio Backhaus from SV Werder Bremen. The assist came from Vladimír Coufal with a through ball.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with TSG Hoffenheim leading SV Werder Bremen 1-0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 4 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
The second half starts with the match at 1-0 in favor of TSG Hoffenheim.
42
Update Update
Mio Backhaus of SV Werder Bremen won a free kick in defense.
42
Update Update
Fisnik Asllani from TSG Hoffenheim committed a foul.
41
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Cameron Puertas from SV Werder Bremen receives a yellow card.
38
Update Update
Wouter Burger from TSG Hoffenheim misses a chance, shooting with his left foot from outside the box but sending it high. Tim Lemperle provided the assist.
34
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Fisnik Asllani from TSG Hoffenheim shot with his right foot from outside the box but missed. Wouter Burger provided the assist after a fast break.
32
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to TSG Hoffenheim after Mio Backhaus concedes.
32
Corner Corner
Fisnik Asllani of TSG Hoffenheim attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, but Mio Backhaus of SV Werder Bremen saves it in the top right corner. The assist comes from Ozan Kabak.
30
Update Update
Justin Njinmah from SV Werder Bremen misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from the left side of the box, but the ball goes high. Romano Schmid provided the assist after a fast break.
29
Attempt Attempt
Olivier Deman of SV Werder Bremen attempts an attack, shooting with his left foot from the left side of the box. The shot is saved by TSG Hoffenheim's goalkeeper Oliver Baumann, who is positioned in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Romano Schmid.
29
Update Update
Senne Lynen from SV Werder Bremen misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box but sending it high. The assist came from Cameron Puertas.
26
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! TSG Hoffenheim leads 1-0 against SV Werder Bremen. Bazoumana Touré scores with a left-footed shot from the left side of the box into the top right corner, assisted by Andrej Kramaric following a corner.
26
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to TSG Hoffenheim after Jens Stage concedes.
25
Attempt Attempt
Andrej Kramaric from TSG Hoffenheim missed a header from the center of the box, sending it to the left. The assist came from Vladimír Coufal's cross.
22
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to SV Werder Bremen after being conceded by Albian Hajdari.
20
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to TSG Hoffenheim after Marco Friedl concedes.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to TSG Hoffenheim after Olivier Deman concedes.
19
Attempt Attempt
Vladimír Coufal's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
18
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to TSG Hoffenheim after Amos Pieper concedes.
16
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Justin Njinmah of SV Werder Bremen.
14
Update Update
Olivier Deman from SV Werder Bremen misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but the ball goes high. Cameron Puertas provided the assist.
13
Attempt Attempt
Wouter Burger from TSG Hoffenheim missed a chance, shooting with his left foot from the center of the box to the left. The assist came from Vladimír Coufal's cross.
12
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for SV Werder Bremen: Isaac Schmidt replaces Salim Musah.
10
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Fisnik Asllani of TSG Hoffenheim shot with his left foot from the center of the box but missed to the left. The assist was provided by Leon Avdullahu with a through ball.
5
Red Card Red Card Important
Yukinari Sugawara of SV Werder Bremen receives a red card.
4
Update Update
VAR decision: Yukinari Sugawara of SV Werder Bremen has had his card upgraded.
2
Update Update
Fouled by Yukinari Sugawara of SV Werder Bremen.
2
Update Update
Bazoumana Touré of TSG Hoffenheim won a free kick on the left wing.

CONCLUSION

TSG Hoffenheim's 1-0 win over Werder Bremen was a clear demonstration of home dominance, bolstered by 72% possession and a crucial red card to the visitors. The halftime score of 1-0 set the tone, with Hoffenheim maintaining control despite the second-half numerical edge. Minimal deviation and market alignment confirm the result's predictability for the stronger side. Efficiency held steady, though xG absence limits deeper insights into finishing. The red card's distortion ensured a controlled finish, preventing any Bremen comeback. This performance solidifies Hoffenheim's credentials in handling pressure and exploiting advantages effectively.

TSG Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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