TSG Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
PreZero Arena Sat, 2 May - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
TSG Hoffenheim TSG
3 – 3
VfB Stuttgart VFB
Full Time Sat, 2 May 1:30 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Andrej Kramaric - 49', 7'
Bazoumana Touré - 23'
Goal
|
Goal
Tiago Tomás - 90+5'
Ermedin Demirovic - 64'
Chris Führich - 20'
|
Red Card Atakan Karazor 69'

CONTEXT

TSG Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart delivered a high-octane Bundesliga clash that ended in a thrilling 3-3 draw. Hoffenheim took control early, leading 2-1 at halftime with clinical finishing. Stuttgart, holding 54% possession to Hoffenheim's 46%, mounted a comeback in the second half despite a red card reducing them to ten men. The visitors equalized dramatically, showcasing resilience against the numerical disadvantage. Labeled the stronger team beforehand, Stuttgart's failure to secure victory highlighted a significant structural deviation in their performance. The game featured end-to-end action, with both sides creating numerous chances and refusing to yield. This result leaves both teams with valuable points from a pulsating encounter.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match showed a significant 76.2% structural deviation for VfB Stuttgart.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment was not achieved.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable from data.
  • Event impact: Red card event altered match dynamics in second half.
  • Red card distortion: Red card to VfB Stuttgart caused second-half distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Stegemann

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. Günsch

1st Assistant

T. Bauer

4th Official

F. Maibaum

2nd Assistant

TSG Hoffenheim C. Ilzer
C. Ilzer
VS
VfB Stuttgart S. Hoeneß
S. Hoeneß
1.91
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.77
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hamburger SV Rank: 75 W
Borussia Dortmund Rank: 90 W
FC Augsburg Rank: 75 D
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: 80 L
RB Leipzig Rank: 87 L
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: 74 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Werder Bremen Rank: 76 D
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 L
Hamburger SV Rank: 77 W
Borussia Dortmund Rank: 90 L
FC Augsburg Rank: 78 W
RB Leipzig Rank: 87 W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 12 - 11
11

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home TSG Hoffenheim
41.33%
Draw
23.8%
Away VfB Stuttgart
34.87%

Movement

Changes since opening
TSG Hoffenheim
+32.82%
Draw
-64.47%
VfB Stuttgart
+31.64%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
84.48
85.68
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
TSG Hoffenheim
VfB Stuttgart
Power Score
84.48
85.68
League Position
6
5
Global Rank
38
32

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
TSG Hoffenheim — Opponent-weighted form score
VfB Stuttgart — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) TSG Hoffenheim VfB Stuttgart

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

TSG Hoffenheim

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

VfB Stuttgart

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

TSG Hoffenheim ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy VfB Stuttgart
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
52.61
28.33
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.33
52.61
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
TSG Hoffenheim +2.13 Efficiency Index
vs
VfB Stuttgart -2.13 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
TSG Hoffenheim
VfB Stuttgart
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

TSG Hoffenheim ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy VfB Stuttgart
Created Set-piece attacking threat
TSG Hoffenheim VfB Stuttgart
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
TSG Hoffenheim VfB Stuttgart
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
TSG Hoffenheim
VfB Stuttgart
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
TSG Hoffenheim
vs
VfB Stuttgart
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
TSG Hoffenheim VfB Stuttgart
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
TSG Hoffenheim 0.50
VfB Stuttgart 0.54
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
TSG Hoffenheim VfB Stuttgart
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
TSG Hoffenheim 0.12
VfB Stuttgart 0.07
TSG Hoffenheim
VfB Stuttgart
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • TSG had peak pressure around 59'.
  • VFB started the game with stronger pressure.
TSG Pressure VFB Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: TSG reached the top pressure at 59' (67.90).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

TSG Hoffenheim TSG Home
31 matches
VfB Stuttgart VFB Away
Match Record
8
Wins
11
12
Draws
12
11
Losses
8
Goals
44
Goals Scored
52
52
Goals Conceded
44
-8
Goal Difference
+8

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:04:04+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
O. Baumann
Germany
1 O. Baumann
V. Coufal
Czech Republic
34 V. Coufal
O. Kabak
Türkiye
5 O. Kabak
A. Hajdari
Switzerland
21 A. Hajdari
B. Fernandes da Silva Junior
Brazil
13 B. Fernandes da Silva Junior
L. Avdullahu
Switzerland
7 L. Avdullahu
W. Burger
Substitution
Netherlands
18 W. Burger
A. Kramarić
Substitution
Croatia
27 A. Kramarić
F. Asllani
Substitution
Germany
11 F. Asllani
B. Touré
Ivory Coast
29 B. Touré
T. Lemperle
Substitution
Germany
19 T. Lemperle
Pitch
A. Nübel
Germany
33 A. Nübel
R. Hendriks
Netherlands
3 R. Hendriks
J. Chabot
Substitution
Germany
24 J. Chabot
L. Jaquez
Switzerland
14 L. Jaquez
J. Karaboue Vagnomann
Substitution
Germany
4 J. Karaboue Vagnomann
A. Stiller
Germany
6 A. Stiller
A. Karazor
Germany
16 A. Karazor
C. Führich
Germany
10 C. Führich
B. El Khannous
Substitution
Morocco
11 B. El Khannous
J. Leweling
Substitution
Germany
18 J. Leweling
D. Undav
Germany
26 D. Undav

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
PreZero Arena
Capacity :
30150
Attendance :
30150
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Christof Günsch
Tom Bauer
Fabian Maibaum
Sascha Stegemann

Statistics

Possession
TSG
49%
VFB
51%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 3
4 Big Chances Created 4
9 Shots 4
44 Dangerous attacks 26
46 Possession 54
4 Corners 5
9 Free kicks 18
3 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

20 Throwins 18
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
9 Dribble Attempts 9
2 Assists 2
11 Successful Headers 13
73 Ball Safe 71
3 Successful Dribbles 3
6 Goal Kicks 9
15 Goal Attempts 9
1 Injuries 1
4 Substitutions 4
2 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

68 Attacks 74
2 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

78 Successful Passes Percentage 81
29 Successful Long Passes 18
58 Long Passes 50
359 Passes 411
279 Successful Passes 332
50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36
15 Key Passes 12

Defensive

8 Interceptions 7
31 Duels Won 42
9 Tackles 9
2 Saves 6

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 15
3 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

18 Fouls 9
2 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Sascha Stegemann

Starting XI ▼

1
Oliver Baumann
Oliver Baumann Goalkeeper
6.78
5
Ozan Kabak
Ozan Kabak Defender
7.01
13
Bernardo
Bernardo Defender
6.87
21
Albian Hajdari
Albian Hajdari Defender
6.94
34
Vladimír Coufal
Vladimír Coufal Defender
7.08
7
Leon Avdullahu
Leon Avdullahu Midfielder
6.89
11
Fisnik Asllani
Fisnik Asllani Midfielder
7.02
22
Alexander Prass
Alexander Prass
Defender90'
6.71
18
Wouter Burger
Wouter Burger Midfielder
7.13
25
Kevin Akpoguma
Kevin Akpoguma
Defender90+1'
5.3
27
Andrej Kramaric
Andrej Kramaric Midfielder
2
7.16
10
Muhammed Damar
Muhammed Damar
Midfielder90+1'
6.61
29
Bazoumana Touré
Bazoumana Touré Midfielder
6.91
19
Tim Lemperle
Tim Lemperle Attacker
6.91
33
Max Moerstedt
Max Moerstedt
Attacker81'
6.58
Referee : Sascha Stegemann

Starting XI ▼

33
Alexander Nübel
Alexander Nübel Goalkeeper
7
3
Ramon Hendriks
Ramon Hendriks Defender
6.66
4
Josha Vagnoman
Josha Vagnoman Defender
6.73
9
Ermedin Demirovic
Ermedin Demirovic
Attacker55'
7.04
14
Luca Jaquez
Luca Jaquez Defender
6.96
24
Jeff Chabot
Jeff Chabot Defender
7.07
7
Maximilian Mittelstädt
Maximilian Mittelstädt
Defender55'
7.29
6
Angelo Stiller
Angelo Stiller Midfielder
7.19
10
Chris Führich
Chris Führich Midfielder
7.09
11
Bilal El Khannouss
Bilal El Khannouss Midfielder
7.22
22
Lorenz Assignon
Lorenz Assignon
Defender76'
6.55
16
Atakan Karazor
Atakan Karazor Midfielder
6.84
18
Jamie Leweling
Jamie Leweling Midfielder
7.04
8
Tiago Tomás
Tiago Tomás
Attacker86'
6.81
26
Deniz Undav
Deniz Undav Attacker
7.33

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Tiago Tomás
Right foot shot / 6th Goal
Event
Kevin Akpoguma → Wouter Burger
7th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Muhammed Damar → Andrej Kramaric
8th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Alexander Prass → Fisnik Asllani
6th Substitution
90'
86'
Event
Tiago Tomás → Jamie Leweling
5th Substitution
Event
Ozan Kabak
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
83'
Event
Max Moerstedt → Tim Lemperle
4th Substitution
81'
76'
Event
Lorenz Assignon → Bilal El Khannouss
3rd Substitution
69'
Event
Atakan Karazor
Foul / 1st Redcard
Event
Bernardo
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
68'
64'
Event
Ermedin Demirovic
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
58'
Event
Bilal El Khannouss
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
55'
Event
Ermedin Demirovic → Josha Vagnoman
1st Substitution
55'
Event
Maximilian Mittelstädt → Jeff Chabot
2nd Substitution
Event
Andrej Kramaric
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
49'
Event
Andrej Kramaric
1st Yellowcard
49'
1ST-HALF
Event
Bazoumana Touré
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
23'
20'
Event
Chris Führich
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Andrej Kramaric
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
7'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Alexander Prass comes on for Fisnik Asllani.
90
Update Update
Kevin Akpoguma is on, and Wouter Burger is off.
90
Attempt Attempt
Tiago Tomas scores with a right-footed shot.
90
Update Update
Muhammed Damar is on, and Andrej Kramaric is off.
90
Attempt Attempt
Deniz Undav takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Max Moerstedt takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Tiago Tomas attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Tiago Tomas scores with a right-footed shot.
88
Attempt Attempt
Bazoumana Toure takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
86
Update Update
Tiago Tomas comes on for Jamie Leweling.
85
Attempt Attempt
Bazoumana Toure takes a left-footed shot but misses.
83
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ozan Kabak receives a yellow card.
81
Update Update
Max Moerstedt is on, and Tim Lemperle is off.
79
Attempt Attempt
Andrej Kramaric takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
78
Update Update
Angelo Stiller takes a header, but it misses the target.
77
Attempt Attempt
Jamie Leweling's left-footed shot is blocked.
76
Update Update
Lorenz Assignon is on, and Bilal El Khannouss is off.
75
Attempt Attempt
Wouter Burger's left-footed shot is saved.
75
Attempt Attempt
Tim Lemperle takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
72
Attempt Attempt
Albian Hajdari takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
69
Red Card Red Card Important
Atakan Karazor receives a red card.
68
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Bernardo Fernandes da Silva Junior.
64
Attempt Attempt
Ermedin Demirovic takes a left-footed shot and scores.
62
Attempt Attempt
Leon Avdullahu takes a right-footed shot but misses.
62
Attempt Attempt
Bazoumana Toure has a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
61
Attempt Attempt
Vladimir Coufal takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Bilal El Khannouss receives a yellow card.
58
Attempt Attempt
Bilal El Khannouss takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
57
Attempt Attempt
Jamie Leweling's left-footed shot is blocked.
55
Update Update
Ermedin Demirovic comes on for Josha Vagnoman.
55
Update Update
Maximilian Mittelstadt replaces Julian Chabot.
54
Attempt Attempt
Tim Lemperle takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
52
Attempt Attempt
Chris Fuhrich takes a right-footed shot but misses.
49
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Andrej Kramaric receives a yellow card.
49
Attempt Attempt
Andrej Kramaric scores with a right-footed shot.
45
Attempt Attempt
Fisnik Asllani takes a right-footed shot but misses.
44
Attempt Attempt
Bilal El Khannouss takes a right-footed shot but misses.
42
Attempt Attempt
Wouter Burger takes a left-footed shot but misses.
42
Attempt Attempt
Tim Lemperle takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
39
Attempt Attempt
Bernardo Fernandes da Silva Junior takes a left-footed shot but misses.
39
Attempt Attempt
Bazoumana Toure attempts a header but misses the shot.
33
Attempt Attempt
Ozan Kabak takes a left-footed shot but misses.
25
Attempt Attempt
Deniz Undav attempts a header but misses the shot.
24
Update Update
Goal! Bazoumana Toure scores, making it 2-1.
23
Attempt Attempt
Bazoumana Toure takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
23
Attempt Attempt
Bazoumana Toure takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
21
Update Update
Goal! Chris Fuhrich scores, making it 1-1.
20
Attempt Attempt
Chris Fuhrich takes a left-footed shot and scores.
15
Attempt Attempt
Andrej Kramaric takes a right-footed shot but misses.
9
Attempt Attempt
Chris Fuhrich takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
8
Update Update
Goal! Andrej Kramaric scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Fisnik Asllani.
8
Attempt Attempt
Andrej Kramaric scores with a right-footed shot.
7
Attempt Attempt
Fisnik Asllani takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

The 3-3 draw between TSG Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart epitomizes football's unpredictability, with Hoffenheim's halftime 2-1 lead erased by a determined Stuttgart despite their red card. Stuttgart's 54% possession dominance did not translate to victory, revealing a significant structural deviation from their stronger team status. Efficiency held steady, but market expectations went unmet amid red card distortion. Both squads displayed grit and attacking flair, splitting points in a fair reflection of the chaos. Hoffenheim gains from home resilience, while Stuttgart builds momentum from the comeback, setting up intriguing future fixtures.

TSG Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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