TSG Hoffenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
PreZero Arena Sat, 4 Apr - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
TSG Hoffenheim TSG
1 Winner 2
FSV Mainz 05 M05
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 1:30 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
Fisnik Asllani - 23'
Goal
|
Goal
Phillip Tietz - 79', 13'

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished with FSV Mainz 05 securing a 2-1 upset victory over TSG Hoffenheim. After heading into the half-time break evenly poised at 1-1, Mainz managed to clinch the win in the second half. This outcome represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, driven entirely by the underdog, FSV Mainz 05. Hoffenheim entered as the stronger side with a commanding 53.5% win probability, leaving Mainz with just a 21.9% chance and a 24.6% likelihood of a draw. Naturally, the final result did not align with the pre-match market. Despite the defeat, TSG Hoffenheim dictated the flow of the game, holding 61% possession compared to Mainz's 39%. With expected goals (xG) metrics unavailable for this fixture, it is not possible to confirm whether the outcome was consistent with the overall quality of chances created by either side. However, the underlying efficiency shift remained entirely in line with regular performance parameters. The match concluded without any major disciplinary incidents, as no red cards were issued to alter the balance of play. Ultimately, Mainz's ability to defy their pre-match odds and capitalize on their limited possession proved to be the decisive factor.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: FSV Mainz 05 showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

H. Osmers

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. Gittelmann

2nd Assistant

M. Eckermann

4th Official

D. Schaal

1st Assistant

TSG Hoffenheim C. Ilzer
C. Ilzer
VS
FSV Mainz 05 U. Fischer
U. Fischer
2.05
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.18
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
RB Leipzig Rank: 84 L
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: 74 D
Heidenheim Rank: 70 W
St. Pauli Rank: 73 L
FC Köln Rank: 74 D
SC Freiburg Rank: 81 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: 81 W
Werder Bremen Rank: 76 W
VfB Stuttgart Rank: 85 D
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: 90 D
Hamburger SV Rank: 77 D
Borussia Dortmund Rank: 91 L
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 9 - 15
15

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home TSG Hoffenheim
53.54%
Draw
24.59%
Away FSV Mainz 05
21.87%

Movement

Changes since opening
TSG Hoffenheim
+2.94%
Draw
-0.34%
FSV Mainz 05
-2.6%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
83.37
81.14
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
TSG Hoffenheim
FSV Mainz 05
Power Score
83.37
81.14
League Position
5
9
Global Rank
43
54

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
TSG Hoffenheim — Opponent-weighted form score
FSV Mainz 05 — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) TSG Hoffenheim FSV Mainz 05

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

TSG Hoffenheim

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

FSV Mainz 05

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

TSG Hoffenheim ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FSV Mainz 05
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.72
28.33
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.33
31.72
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
TSG Hoffenheim +0.31 Efficiency Index
vs
FSV Mainz 05 -0.31 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
TSG Hoffenheim
FSV Mainz 05
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

TSG Hoffenheim ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FSV Mainz 05
Created Set-piece attacking threat
TSG Hoffenheim FSV Mainz 05
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
TSG Hoffenheim FSV Mainz 05
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
TSG Hoffenheim
FSV Mainz 05
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
TSG Hoffenheim
vs
FSV Mainz 05
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
TSG Hoffenheim FSV Mainz 05
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
TSG Hoffenheim 0.24
FSV Mainz 05 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
TSG Hoffenheim FSV Mainz 05
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
TSG Hoffenheim 0.05
FSV Mainz 05 0.01
TSG Hoffenheim
FSV Mainz 05
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 33 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

TSG Hoffenheim TSG Home
33 matches
FSV Mainz 05 M05 Away
Match Record
9
Wins
15
9
Draws
9
15
Losses
9
Goals
50
Goals Scored
59
59
Goals Conceded
50
-9
Goal Difference
+9

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:03:20+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-3-2
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
O. Baumann
Germany
1 O. Baumann
V. Coufal
Substitution
Czech Republic
34 V. Coufal
O. Kabak
Turkey
5 O. Kabak
A. Hajdari
Switzerland
21 A. Hajdari
B. Fernandes da Silva Junior
Brazil
13 B. Fernandes da Silva Junior
W. Burger
Netherlands
18 W. Burger
G. Prömel
Germany
6 G. Prömel
F. Asllani
Substitution
Germany
11 F. Asllani
A. Prass
Substitution
Austria
22 A. Prass
T. Lemperle
Substitution
Germany
19 T. Lemperle
B. Touré
Ivory Coast
29 B. Touré
Pitch
D. Batz
Germany
33 D. Batz
D. Kohr
Substitution
Germany
31 D. Kohr
S. Posch
Austria
4 S. Posch
D. Vieira da Costa
Germany
21 D. Vieira da Costa
P. Mwene
Austria
2 P. Mwene
J. Lee
Substitution
South Korea
7 J. Lee
K. Sano
Japan
6 K. Sano
P. Nebel
Substitution
Germany
8 P. Nebel
S. Widmer
Substitution
Switzerland
30 S. Widmer
P. Tietz
Germany
20 P. Tietz
S. Becker
Substitution
Suriname
23 S. Becker

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 04, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium :
PreZero Arena
Capacity :
30150
Attendance :
30150
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Christian Gittelmann
Marc-Philipp Eckermann
Harm Osmers
Dominik Schaal

Statistics

Possession
TSG
58%
M05
42%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 5
4 Shots 2
67 Dangerous attacks 41
61 Possession 39
7 Corners 3
5 Free kicks 11
4 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

1 Hit Woodwork 0
0 Injuries 1
25 Throwins 27
29 Successful Headers 16
4 Successful Dribbles 2
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 29
10 Dribble Attempts 7
1 Goal Kicks 9
10 Goal Attempts 5
1 Assists 1
4 Substitutions 5
90 Ball Safe 97

Attacking

127 Attacks 86
2 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

64 Long Passes 85
10 Key Passes 7
31 Successful Long Passes 31
79 Successful Passes Percentage 69
394 Successful Passes 213
48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36
497 Passes 309

Defensive

16 Tackles 15
3 Saves 4
53 Duels Won 44
7 Interceptions 10

Build-up

22 Total Crosses 22
4 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

11 Fouls 5
0 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : Harm Osmers

Starting XI ▼

1
Oliver Baumann
Oliver Baumann Goalkeeper
5
Ozan Kabak
Ozan Kabak Defender
13
Bernardo
Bernardo Defender
21
Albian Hajdari
Albian Hajdari Defender
34
Vladimír Coufal
Vladimír Coufal Defender
7
Leon Avdullahu
Leon Avdullahu
Midfielder61'
6
Grischa Prömel
Grischa Prömel Midfielder
11
Fisnik Asllani
Fisnik Asllani Midfielder
27
Andrej Kramaric
Andrej Kramaric
Attacker61'
18
Wouter Burger
Wouter Burger Midfielder
22
Alexander Prass
Alexander Prass Midfielder
9
Ihlas Bebou
Ihlas Bebou
Attacker84'
19
Tim Lemperle
Tim Lemperle Attacker
33
Max Moerstedt
Max Moerstedt
Attacker87'
29
Bazoumana Touré
Bazoumana Touré Attacker
Referee : Harm Osmers

Starting XI ▼

33
Daniel Batz
Daniel Batz Goalkeeper
4
Stefan Posch
Stefan Posch Defender
21
Danny da Costa
Danny da Costa Defender
31
Dominik Kohr
Dominik Kohr Defender
48
Kacper Potulski
Kacper Potulski
Defender37'
2
Phillipp Mwene
Phillipp Mwene Midfielder
6
Kaishu Sano
Kaishu Sano Midfielder
7
Jae-sung Lee
Jae-sung Lee Midfielder
24
Sota Kawasaki
Sota Kawasaki
Midfielder76'
8
Paul Nebel
Paul Nebel Midfielder
15
Lennard Maloney
Lennard Maloney
Midfielder87'
30
Silvan Widmer
Silvan Widmer Midfielder
22
Nikolas Veratschnig
Nikolas Veratschnig
Defender46'
20
Phillip Tietz
Phillip Tietz Attacker
2
23
Sheraldo Becker
Sheraldo Becker Attacker
11
Armindo Sieb
Armindo Sieb
Attacker75'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Max Moerstedt → Tim Lemperle
9th Substitution
87'
87'
Event
Lennard Maloney → Paul Nebel
8th Substitution
Event
Ihlas Bebou → Alexander Prass
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Oliver Baumann
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
80'
Event
Wouter Burger
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
79'
79'
Event
Phillip Tietz
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
76'
Event
Sota Kawasaki → Jae-sung Lee
6th Substitution
75'
Event
Armindo Sieb → Sheraldo Becker
5th Substitution
Event
Andrej Kramaric → Fisnik Asllani
4th Substitution
61'
Event
Leon Avdullahu → Vladimír Coufal
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
Vladimír Coufal
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
47'
46'
Event
Nikolas Veratschnig → Silvan Widmer
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Ozan Kabak
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
45'
37'
Event
Kacper Potulski → Dominik Kohr
1st Substitution
Event
Fisnik Asllani
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
23'
13'
Event
Phillip Tietz
Header / 1st Goal
7'
Event
Dominik Kohr
1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Grischa Prömel from TSG Hoffenheim committed a foul.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 4 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with TSG Hoffenheim losing 1-2 to 1. FSV Mainz 05.
90
Update Update
Kacper Potulski from 1. FSV Mainz 05 won a free kick in defense.
89
Update Update
Stefan Posch of 1. FSV Mainz 05 won a free kick in defense.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for TSG Hoffenheim: Max Moerstedt replaces Tim Lemperle.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FSV Mainz 05: Lennard Maloney replaces Paul Nebel.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for TSG Hoffenheim: Ihlas Bebou replaces Alexander Prass.
83
Corner Corner
TSG Hoffenheim wins a corner after Danny da Costa concedes.
81
Attempt Attempt
Wouter Burger from TSG Hoffenheim hits the right post with a left-footed shot from outside the box, assisted by Bazoumana Touré with a header.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Oliver Baumann of TSG Hoffenheim receives a yellow card.
79
Attempt Attempt
Paul Nebel's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked.
79
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Phillip Tietz scores for 1. FSV Mainz 05 with a right-footed shot from close range into the top right corner. The match score is now TSG Hoffenheim 1, 1. FSV Mainz 05 2.
79
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Phillip Tietz from 1. FSV Mainz 05 heads the ball from the right side of the six-yard box, but it's saved.
79
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Wouter Burger of TSG Hoffenheim receives a yellow card.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FSV Mainz 05: Sota Kawasaki replaces Lee Jae-Sung.
76
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Wouter Burger from TSG Hoffenheim.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FSV Mainz 05: Armindo Sieb replaces Sheraldo Becker.
73
Update Update
Fouled by Phillip Tietz of 1. FSV Mainz 05.
73
Update Update
Albian Hajdari of TSG Hoffenheim won a free kick in defense.
70
Attempt Attempt
Albian Hajdari's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Wouter Burger provided the assist.
70
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to TSG Hoffenheim after being conceded by Danny da Costa.
67
Attempt Attempt
Phillip Tietz of 1. FSV Mainz 05 attempts a shot with his right foot from the center of the box, but it's saved by TSG Hoffenheim's goalkeeper Oliver Baumann, who is positioned in the center of the goal.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FSV Mainz 05 after a concession by Alexander Prass.
63
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Alexander Prass of TSG Hoffenheim shoots with his left foot from outside the box, but Daniel Batz of 1. FSV Mainz 05 saves it in the right corner.
62
Update Update
Bazoumana Touré of TSG Hoffenheim won a free kick in an attacking position.
62
Attempt Attempt
Paul Nebel's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. The assist came from Phillip Tietz.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for TSG Hoffenheim: Leon Avdullahu replaces Vladimír Coufal.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for TSG Hoffenheim: Andrej Kramaric replaces Fisnik Asllani.
60
Update Update
Foul committed by Vladimír Coufal of TSG Hoffenheim.
60
Update Update
Phillipp Mwene from 1. FSV Mainz 05 won a free kick in defense.
58
Attempt Attempt
Bazoumana Touré's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked.
58
Update Update
Tim Lemperle from TSG Hoffenheim commits a foul.
58
Update Update
Kacper Potulski from 1. FSV Mainz 05 won a free kick in defense.
57
Update Update
Foul committed by Vladimír Coufal of TSG Hoffenheim.
57
Update Update
Phillipp Mwene from 1. FSV Mainz 05 won a free kick on the left wing.
55
Attempt Attempt
Tim Lemperle from TSG Hoffenheim had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the box but sending it wide to the left. Alexander Prass provided the assist.
52
Update Update
Vladimír Coufal of TSG Hoffenheim won a free kick in defense.
52
Update Update
Fouled by Phillip Tietz of 1. FSV Mainz 05.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FSV Mainz 05 after a concession by Ozan Kabak.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FSV Mainz 05 after Ozan Kabak concedes.
49
Update Update
Paul Nebel from 1. FSV Mainz 05 won a free kick in defense.
49
Update Update
Wouter Burger from TSG Hoffenheim committed a foul.
48
Update Update
Nikolas Veratschnig of 1. FSV Mainz 05 is flagged for offside.
47
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Vladimír Coufal from TSG Hoffenheim receives a yellow card for a foul.
47
Update Update
Foul committed by Vladimír Coufal of TSG Hoffenheim.
47
Update Update
Phillipp Mwene of 1. FSV Mainz 05 won a free kick on the left wing.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with TSG Hoffenheim and 1. FSV Mainz 05 tied at 1-1.
45
Corner Corner
TSG Hoffenheim wins a corner after Phillipp Mwene concedes.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 3 minutes of added time.
45
Attempt Attempt
Bazoumana Touré's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Bazoumana Touré's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. Tim Lemperle provided the assist.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ozan Kabak from TSG Hoffenheim receives a yellow card for a foul.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FSV Mainz 05: Nikolas Veratschnig replaces Silvan Widmer.
45
Update Update
The second half starts with the match tied at 1-1 between TSG Hoffenheim and 1. FSV Mainz 05.
44
Update Update
Kaishu Sano of 1. FSV Mainz 05 won a free kick on the left wing.
44
Update Update
Ozan Kabak from TSG Hoffenheim committed a foul.
43
Attempt Attempt
Paul Nebel from 1. FSV Mainz 05 had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from the center of the box but missing to the left. The assist came from Sheraldo Becker, who provided a cross.
43
Update Update
Fouled by Bazoumana Touré of TSG Hoffenheim.
43
Update Update
Silvan Widmer of 1. FSV Mainz 05 won a free kick in an attacking position.
41
Update Update
Offside called against 1. FSV Mainz 05. Lee Jae-Sung is offside.
39
Attempt Attempt
Albian Hajdari from TSG Hoffenheim had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from outside the box, but it went close and missed the target.
37
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FSV Mainz 05: Kacper Potulski replaces Dominik Kohr.
33
Attempt Attempt
Fisnik Asllani's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Grischa Prömel.
31
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Albian Hajdari from TSG Hoffenheim heads the ball from the center of the box, but it's saved by goalkeeper Daniel Batz from 1. FSV Mainz 05, who is positioned in the center of the goal. The assist came from Wouter Burger with a cross.
31
Update Update
Fisnik Asllani from TSG Hoffenheim committed a foul.
31
Update Update
Daniel Batz from 1. FSV Mainz 05 won a free kick in defense.
30
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to TSG Hoffenheim after Paul Nebel concedes.
29
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Phillip Tietz from 1. FSV Mainz 05.
28
Corner Corner
Vladimír Coufal from TSG Hoffenheim attempts an attack, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the box, but Daniel Batz from 1. FSV Mainz 05 saves it in the left corner.
25
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Lee Jae-Sung of 1. FSV Mainz 05 heads the ball from the center of the box, but Oliver Baumann of TSG Hoffenheim saves it in the right corner. The assist came from Paul Nebel's cross.
23
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! TSG Hoffenheim 1, 1. FSV Mainz 05 1. Fisnik Asllani scores for TSG Hoffenheim with a left-footed shot from outside the box into the top right corner, assisted by Bazoumana Touré.
13
Corner Corner
Goal! 1. FSV Mainz 05 takes the lead 1-0 against TSG Hoffenheim. Phillip Tietz scores with a header from the center of the box into the right corner, assisted by a cross from Phillipp Mwene.
13
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! 1. FSV Mainz 05 takes the lead 1-0 against TSG Hoffenheim. Phillip Tietz scores with a header from the center of the box into the right corner, assisted by a cross from Phillipp Mwene.
11
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to TSG Hoffenheim after Daniel Batz concedes.
11
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to TSG Hoffenheim after a concession by Daniel Batz.
10
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Fisnik Asllani from TSG Hoffenheim shot with his right foot from a few meters out but it went high after the corner.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to TSG Hoffenheim after being conceded by Kaishu Sano.
9
Attempt Attempt
Grischa Prömel's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
9
Corner Corner
TSG Hoffenheim wins a corner after Phillipp Mwene concedes.
8
Update Update
Vladimír Coufal from TSG Hoffenheim won a free kick on the right wing.
8
Update Update
Fouled by Phillip Tietz of 1. FSV Mainz 05.
7
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dominik Kohr of 1. FSV Mainz 05 receives a yellow card.
4
Attempt Attempt
Fisnik Asllani's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Tim Lemperle, who provided a header.
3
Update Update
Offside called against 1. FSV Mainz 05. Phillip Tietz is offside.
2
Update Update
Foul committed by Grischa Prömel of TSG Hoffenheim.
2
Update Update
Offside called against 1. FSV Mainz 05. Phillip Tietz is offside.
2
Update Update
Kaishu Sano of 1. FSV Mainz 05 won a free kick in defense.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: FSV Mainz 05 exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

TSG Hoffenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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