Tromsø vs Sandefjord Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Alfheim Stadion Sun, 26 Apr - 3:00 PM
Eliteserien
Tromsø Tromsø
3 Winner 1
Sandefjord Sandefjord
Full Time Sun, 26 Apr 3:00 PM
Round 6 Regular Season
Troy Engseth Nyhammer - 57'
Vetle Skjærvik - 28'
Heine Åsen Larsen - 16'
Goal
|
Goal
Evangelos Patoulidis - 48'

CONTEXT

Tromsø claimed a 3-1 home win against Sandefjord, leading 2-0 at halftime in a match that showcased their superior finishing despite lower possession. Sandefjord held 57% of the ball to Tromsø's 43%, yet failed to convert dominance into goals until a late consolation. Tromsø, identified as the stronger side, struck twice before the break and added one more in the second half, underlining their efficiency in key moments. No red cards were issued, ensuring an uninterrupted flow. The result marked a significant structural deviation favoring Tromsø at 40.5%, with the outcome aligning with pre-match market views. This performance highlights Tromsø's ability to outperform expectations, solidifying their standing while exposing Sandefjord's struggles in front of goal. The game lacked major tactical shifts in the second half, allowing Tromsø to control the narrative.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Tromsø's 3-1 win showed a significant 40.5% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, so alignment cannot be assessed.
  • Market alignment: Final result aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable due to lack of data.
  • Event impact: No major events altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, avoiding any scoreline distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Lien

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

I. Jahr

1st Assistant

L. Nymoen

2nd Assistant

S. Bråten

4th Official

Tromsø J. Vik
J. Vik
VS
Sandefjord A. Tegström
A. Tegström
2.55
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.64
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sarpsborg 08 Rank: W
Lillestrøm Rank: D
Kristiansund Rank: W
Rosenborg Rank: W
Brann Rank: W
Fredrikstad Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rosenborg Rank: D
Brann Rank: W
KFUM Rank: W
Sarpsborg 08 Rank: L
Vålerenga Rank: L
KFUM Rank: W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 8 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Tromsø
59.53%
Draw
23.08%
Away Sandefjord
17.4%

Movement

Changes since opening
Tromsø
-38.36%
Draw
+21.16%
Sandefjord
+17.2%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
37.14
24.17
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Tromsø
Sandefjord
Power Score
37.14
24.17
League Position
1
8
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Tromsø — Opponent-weighted form score
Sandefjord — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Tromsø Sandefjord

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Tromsø

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sandefjord

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Tromsø ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sandefjord
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
36.51
26.93
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.93
36.51
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Tromsø +0.98 Efficiency Index
vs
Sandefjord -0.98 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Tromsø
Sandefjord
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Tromsø ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sandefjord
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Tromsø Sandefjord
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Tromsø Sandefjord
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Tromsø
Sandefjord
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Tromsø
vs
Sandefjord
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Tromsø Sandefjord
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Tromsø 0.41
Sandefjord 0.52
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Tromsø Sandefjord
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Tromsø 0.04
Sandefjord 0.09
Tromsø
Sandefjord
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Tromsø had peak pressure around 33'.
  • Sandefjord started the game with stronger pressure.
Tromsø Pressure Sandefjord Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Tromsø reached the top pressure at 33' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 24 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Tromsø Tromsø Home
24 matches
Sandefjord Sandefjord Away
Match Record
8
Wins
8
8
Draws
8
8
Losses
8
Goals
33
Goals Scored
30
30
Goals Conceded
33
+3
Goal Difference
-3

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:06:18+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
J. Haugaard
Denmark
1 J. Haugaard
L. Jean Cornic
Norway
2 L. Jean Cornic
V. Skjærvik
Norway
4 V. Skjærvik
T. Kvalvågnes Guddal
Norway
21 T. Kvalvågnes Guddal
A. Kinteh
25 A. Kinteh
A. Warneryd
Substitution
Sweden
29 A. Warneryd
D. Edvardsson
Substitution
Sweden
5 D. Edvardsson
R. Yttergård Jenssen
Norway
11 R. Yttergård Jenssen
J. Hjertø-Dahl
Norway
6 J. Hjertø-Dahl
L. Larsen
Substitution
Norway
7 L. Larsen
H. Larsen
Substitution
Norway
22 H. Larsen
Pitch
E. Hadaya
Sweden
30 E. Hadaya
V. Walle Egeli
Norway
3 V. Walle Egeli
X. Lambrix
Belgium
44 X. Lambrix
Z. Smajlovic
Sweden
2 Z. Smajlovic
F. Pedersen
Norway
4 F. Pedersen
S. Mørk
Norway
6 S. Mørk
E. Sundbö Pettersen
Substitution
Norway
14 E. Sundbö Pettersen
J. Dunsby
Substitution
Norway
27 J. Dunsby
R. Kristensen Alte
Substitution
Norway
10 R. Kristensen Alte
E. Patoulidis
Belgium
7 E. Patoulidis
N. Moller
Substitution
Sweden
11 N. Moller

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 26, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 6 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Alfheim Stadion
Capacity :
6687
Pitch Surface :
N/A
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ivar Michael Jahr
Line Cathrine Nymoen
Sander Bråten
Marius Lien

Statistics

Possession
Tromsø
45%
Sandefjord
55%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 0
4 Shots 4
34 Dangerous attacks 27
43 Possession 57
10 Corners 6
13 Free kicks 9

Match Overview

1 Injuries 2
4 Successful Dribbles 5
5 Substitutions 5
6 Goal Kicks 4
2 Assists 1
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 42
18 Throwins 24
9 Dribble Attempts 12
87 Ball Safe 101
8 Goal Attempts 8

Attacking

1 Counter Attacks 3
90 Attacks 100

Possession

10 Key Passes 5
18 Successful Long Passes 27
30 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52
61 Long Passes 52
76 Successful Passes Percentage 85
312 Successful Passes 465
411 Passes 549

Defensive

7 Interceptions 10
3 Saves 2
18 Tackles 13
52 Duels Won 43

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 2
15 Total Crosses 13

Discipline

9 Fouls 12
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Marius Lien

Starting XI ▼

1
Jakob Haugaard
Jakob Haugaard Goalkeeper
7.23
2
Leo Cornic
Leo Cornic Defender
7.29
4
Vetle Skjærvik
Vetle Skjærvik Defender
7.19
21
Tobias Guddal
Tobias Guddal Defender
7.43
25
Abubacarr Sedi Kinteh
Abubacarr Sedi Kinteh Defender
7.41
29
Alexander Thongla-Iad Warneryd
Alexander Thongla-Iad Warneryd Defender
7.21
30
Isak Vådebu
Isak Vådebu
Defender81'
7.17
5
David Edvardsson
David Edvardsson Midfielder
7.27
10
Troy Engseth Nyhammer
Troy Engseth Nyhammer
Midfielder46'
6.38
6
Jens Hjertø-Dahl
Jens Hjertø-Dahl Midfielder
7.5
11
Ruben Yttergård Jenssen
Ruben Yttergård Jenssen Midfielder
7.28
7
Lars Olden Larsen
Lars Olden Larsen Attacker
6.94
27
Mads Mikkelsen
Mads Mikkelsen
Midfielder90+2'
22
Heine Åsen Larsen
Heine Åsen Larsen Attacker
7.08
9
Daniel Braut
Daniel Braut
Attacker73'
6.84
Referee : Marius Lien

Starting XI ▼

30
Elias Hadaya
Elias Hadaya Goalkeeper
7.25
2
Zinedin Smajlović
Zinedin Smajlović Defender
7.43
3
Vetle Walle Egeli
Vetle Walle Egeli Defender
6.82
4
Fredrik Carson Pedersen
Fredrik Carson Pedersen Defender
6.63
44
Xander Lambrix
Xander Lambrix Defender
7.16
6
Sander Risan Mørk
Sander Risan Mørk Midfielder
7.09
7
Evangelos Patoulidis
Evangelos Patoulidis Midfielder
7.18
10
Ruben Alte
Ruben Alte Midfielder
6.78
20
Marcus Melchior
Marcus Melchior
Midfielder63'
6.54
14
Edvard Sundbø Pettersen
Edvard Sundbø Pettersen Midfielder
6.71
8
Robin Dzabic
Robin Dzabic
Midfielder90+4'
6.54
27
Jakob Dunsby
Jakob Dunsby Midfielder
6.6
19
Bendik Berntsen
Bendik Berntsen
Attacker38'
6.6
11
Nikolaj Möller
Nikolaj Möller Attacker
6.63
24
Sebastian Holm Mathisen
Sebastian Holm Mathisen
Attacker63'
6.6

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Robin Dzabic → Edvard Sundbø Pettersen
8th Substitution
Event
Mads Mikkelsen → Lars Olden Larsen
7th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Isak Vådebu → Alexander Thongla-Iad Warneryd
6th Substitution
81'
Event
Daniel Braut → Heine Åsen Larsen
5th Substitution
73'
63'
Event
Marcus Melchior → Ruben Alte
4th Substitution
63'
Event
Sebastian Holm Mathisen → Nikolaj Möller
3rd Substitution
Event
Troy Engseth Nyhammer
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
57'
48'
Event
Evangelos Patoulidis
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Troy Engseth Nyhammer → David Edvardsson
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
38'
Event
Bendik Berntsen → Jakob Dunsby
1st Substitution
Event
Vetle Skjærvik
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
28'
Event
Heine Åsen Larsen
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
16'

CONCLUSION

Tromsø's 3-1 triumph over Sandefjord validates their status as the stronger team, overcoming inferior possession through sharp attacking play. The 2-0 halftime lead set the tone, and despite Sandefjord's ball control, Tromsø's defense held firm. This significant deviation underscores their overperformance, consistent with market alignment and free of disruptive events. Sandefjord's single goal highlights conversion issues. Overall, Tromsø gains momentum, while Sandefjord must address inefficiency. The clean sheet on discipline aids Tromsø's campaign trajectory.

Tromsø vs Sandefjord preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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