Tromsø vs Molde Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Alfheim Stadion Sun, 10 May - 3:00 PM
Eliteserien
Tromsø Tromsø
2 Winner 0
Molde Molde
Full Time Sun, 10 May 3:00 PM
Round 8 Regular Season
Troy Engseth Nyhammer - 90+8'
Isak Vådebu - 80'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Tromsø 2–0 Molde. The result saw Tromsø take the points. Tromsø showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 44%–56%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Tromsø showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

K. Hagenes

Norway
Fouls / match 0
Yellow cards / match 0
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

E. Wisted

4th Official

Norway

?. Simon Ytterland

1st Assistant

Norway

C. Jørgensen

2nd Assistant

Norway

League averages

Eliteserien Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.82
Yellow cards / match 3.08
Red cards / match 0.08
Penalties / match 0.23
Tromsø J. Vik
J. Vik
VS
Molde M. Falk
M. Falk
2.36
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.78
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Start Rank: 49 D
Brann Rank: 67 L
Sandefjord Rank: 62 W
Sarpsborg 08 Rank: 60 W
Lillestrøm Rank: 57 D
Kristiansund Rank: 56 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bodø / Glimt Rank: 83 W
Vålerenga Rank: 60 W
Start Rank: 48 D
HamKam Rank: 60 W
Lillestrøm Rank: 57 L
Viking Rank: 79 L
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 7 - 20
20

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Tromsø
49.88%
Draw
25.97%
Away Molde
24.15%

Movement

Changes since opening
Tromsø
-45.73%
Draw
+21.77%
Molde
+23.96%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.09
65.69
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Tromsø
Molde
Power Score
69.09
65.69
League Position
1
5
Global Rank
231
311

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Tromsø — Opponent-weighted form score
Molde — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Tromsø Molde

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Tromsø

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Molde

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Tromsø ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Molde
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
46.48
29.29
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.29
46.48
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Tromsø +1.75 Efficiency Index
vs
Molde -1.75 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Tromsø
Molde
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Tromsø ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Molde
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Tromsø Molde
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Tromsø Molde
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Tromsø
Molde
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Tromsø
vs
Molde
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Tromsø Molde
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Tromsø 0.25
Molde 0.29
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Tromsø Molde
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Tromsø 0.00
Molde 0.03
Tromsø
Molde
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Tromsø had peak pressure around 36'.
  • Molde started the game with stronger pressure.
Tromsø Pressure Molde Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Tromsø reached the top pressure at 36' (70.99).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 36 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Tromsø Tromsø Home
36 matches
Molde Molde Away
Match Record
9
Wins
20
7
Draws
7
20
Losses
9
Goals
44
Goals Scored
70
70
Goals Conceded
44
-26
Goal Difference
+26

Data last updated: 2026-05-11T00:04:50+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
J. Haugaard
Denmark
1 J. Haugaard
L. Jean Cornic
Norway
2 L. Jean Cornic
M. Tønnessen
Substitution
Norway
3 M. Tønnessen
T. Kvalvågnes Guddal
Norway
21 T. Kvalvågnes Guddal
I. Vådebu
Norway
30 I. Vådebu
A. Warneryd
Sweden
29 A. Warneryd
D. Edvardsson
Sweden
5 D. Edvardsson
R. Yttergård Jenssen
Norway
11 R. Yttergård Jenssen
J. Hjertø-Dahl
Substitution
Norway
6 J. Hjertø-Dahl
H. Larsen
Substitution
Norway
22 H. Larsen
L. Larsen
Norway
7 L. Larsen
Pitch
A. Posiadała
Poland
22 A. Posiadała
S. Kabini
Substitution
South Africa
26 S. Kabini
B. Risa
Norway
33 B. Risa
S. Hansen
4 S. Hansen
H. Østervold Stenevik
Norway
18 H. Østervold Stenevik
M. Møller Dæhli
Norway
17 M. Møller Dæhli
V. Hoff
Substitution
Norway
15 V. Hoff
O. Spiten-Nysæter
Substitution
Norway
21 O. Spiten-Nysæter
E. Breivik
Norway
10 E. Breivik
S. Granaas
Substitution
Norway
23 S. Granaas
F. Gulbrandsen
Substitution
Norway
8 F. Gulbrandsen

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 8 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Alfheim Stadion
Capacity :
6687
Pitch Surface :
N/A
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Kristoffer Hagenes
Eirik Wisted
Øystein Simon Ytterland
Christer Solheim Jørgensen

Statistics

Possession
Tromsø
48%
Molde
52%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 6
69 Dangerous attacks 48
44 Possession 56
5 Corners 4
8 Free kicks 11
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

9 Throwins 20
64 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
7 Successful Dribbles 4
5 Goal Kicks 11
11 Dribble Attempts 10
3 Substitutions 5
82 Ball Safe 105
11 Goal Attempts 6
1 Injuries 0
2 Assists 0

Attacking

7 Counter Attacks 4
124 Attacks 88
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

386 Successful Passes 500
463 Passes 590
68 Long Passes 47
29 Successful Long Passes 20
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43
83 Successful Passes Percentage 85
13 Key Passes 9

Defensive

41 Duels Won 44
10 Interceptions 5
13 Tackles 15
3 Saves 3

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 18
7 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

11 Fouls 8
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Kristoffer Hagenes

Starting XI ▼

1
Jakob Haugaard
Jakob Haugaard Goalkeeper
2
Leo Cornic
Leo Cornic Defender
3
Mathias Tønnessen
Mathias Tønnessen Defender
24
Jens Berland Husebø
Jens Berland Husebø
Defender73'
21
Tobias Guddal
Tobias Guddal Defender
29
Alexander Thongla-Iad Warneryd
Alexander Thongla-Iad Warneryd Defender
30
Isak Vådebu
Isak Vådebu Defender
5
David Edvardsson
David Edvardsson Midfielder
6
Jens Hjertø-Dahl
Jens Hjertø-Dahl Midfielder
10
Troy Engseth Nyhammer
Troy Engseth Nyhammer
Midfielder71'
11
Ruben Yttergård Jenssen
Ruben Yttergård Jenssen Midfielder
7
Lars Olden Larsen
Lars Olden Larsen Attacker
22
Heine Åsen Larsen
Heine Åsen Larsen Attacker
9
Daniel Braut
Daniel Braut
Attacker84'
Referee : Kristoffer Hagenes

Starting XI ▼

22
Albert Posiadala
Albert Posiadala Goalkeeper
4
S. Hansen
S. Hansen Defender
18
Halldor Stenevik
Halldor Stenevik Defender
26
Samukelo Kabini
Samukelo Kabini Defender
6
Isak Helstad Amundsen
Isak Helstad Amundsen
Defender90+1'
33
Birk Risa
Birk Risa Defender
10
Emil Breivik
Emil Breivik Midfielder
15
Vebjørn Hoff
Vebjørn Hoff Midfielder
14
Jacob Christensen
Jacob Christensen
Midfielder81'
17
Mats Møller Dæhli
Mats Møller Dæhli Midfielder
21
Oskar Spiten-Nysæter
Oskar Spiten-Nysæter Midfielder
11
Caleb Zady Sery
Caleb Zady Sery
Attacker57'
23
Sondre Granaas
Sondre Granaas Midfielder
24
Trent Kone Doherty
Trent Kone Doherty
Attacker57'
8
Fredrik Gulbrandsen
Fredrik Gulbrandsen Attacker
28
Viktor Bender
Viktor Bender
Midfielder81'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Troy Engseth Nyhammer
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
90+8'
Event
Alexander Thongla-Iad Warneryd
4th Yellowcard
90+7'
90+1'
Event
Isak Helstad Amundsen → Samukelo Kabini
8th Substitution
88'
Event
Emil Breivik
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Daniel Braut → Heine Åsen Larsen
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Jørgen Vik
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
83'
81'
Event
Viktor Bender  → Fredrik Gulbrandsen
5th Substitution
81'
Event
Jacob Christensen → Vebjørn Hoff
6th Substitution
Event
Isak Vådebu
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
80'
Event
Jens Berland Husebø → Mathias Tønnessen
4th Substitution
73'
Event
Troy Engseth Nyhammer → Jens Hjertø-Dahl
3rd Substitution
71'
59'
Event
Albert Posiadala
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
57'
Event
Trent Kone Doherty → Sondre Granaas
1st Substitution
57'
Event
Caleb Zady Sery → Oskar Spiten-Nysæter
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
David Edvardsson
Simulation / 1st Yellowcard
27'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Tromsø exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Tromsø vs Molde preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Eliteserien, Norway View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ

Author

Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.